FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[Frostillicus]

DePaul / Providence tips in an hour and a half

Providence -10.5, imo.

DePaul is 7-1 ATS in conference play. Their only loss was vs Xavier by 13 as a 12 point dog. They have been lined as dogs all 8 games and won outright as a 5, 10.5, 10, 6, and 9.5 pt dog. /chainsaw

So they're due.

 

[comfortably numb]

DePaul / Providence tips in an hour and a half

Providence -10.5, imo.

DePaul is 7-1 ATS in conference play. Their only loss was vs Xavier by 13 as a 12 point dog. They have been lined as dogs all 8 games and won outright as a 5, 10.5, 10, 6, and 9.5 pt dog. /chainsaw

So they're due.

IN.....because it's a 2PM game

 

[tjnc09]

DePaul / Providence tips in an hour and a half

Providence -10.5, imo.

DePaul is 7-1 ATS in conference play. Their only loss was vs Xavier by 13 as a 12 point dog. They have been lined as dogs all 8 games and won outright as a 5, 10.5, 10, 6, and 9.5 pt dog. /chainsaw

So they're due.

Possibly. Providence is 5-2 ATS in conference play. They are 3-1 ATS as favorites.

 

[modogg]

DePaul / Providence tips in an hour and a half

Providence -10.5, imo.

DePaul is 7-1 ATS in conference play. Their only loss was vs Xavier by 13 as a 12 point dog. They have been lined as dogs all 8 games and won outright as a 5, 10.5, 10, 6, and 9.5 pt dog. /chainsaw

So they're due.

Possibly. Providence is 5-2 ATS in conference play. They are 3-1 ATS as favorites.

you both know more about CBB then 10 of me would ever know, but I think stats like these with CBB might not be as good as some other sports because a lot of these teams so inconsistent from night to night. they can shoot the lights out one night and look like knuckleheads the next for no real reason.

 

[gussy]

I always hate leading a conversation by saying "no offense", because it usually means I'm about to offend someone, and I'm being sincere here, because that's not really my intent. Bear in mind that my hockey record for the most part since I've been posting this new method have been dreadful and my CBB this year has been worse. But with that being said, somebody posted about making money tailing Frosty. I have his record at about 53.3%. I don't think anybody's making any money at 53.3%. It's a hell of a lot better than what I've been doing in hockey and hoops, but am I wrong here? I've been gambling off and on for maybe 5 years, at least consistently. The longer I play the more I start to realize just how hard it is to actually MAKE money and how few people really do. I've had football seasons where I've been up fractionally, but not enough to buy a Mercedes or anything. Guys I follow on Twitter who are supposed to be great...........I don't think they are. Stuckey? He's hit some futures the last few years. I've tailed him in hoops and hockey at times. Not good. Dave Cokin? He's been getting killed lately. I like this new NBA guy I'm tailing because the mindset is similar to what I'm doing with NHL. But it hasn't been profitable thus far. The only thing I keep thinking is that it makes too much sense to not be profitable. Marco D'Angelo seems to be about the best I've found. Wes Reynolds bets everything in sight, I don't think he wins. I follow lots of so called geniuses on twitter. I have yet to find anybody that I think is really making money. Rant over.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I always hate leading a conversation by saying "no offense", because it usually means I'm about to offend someone, and I'm being sincere here, because that's not really my intent. Bear in mind that my hockey record for the most part since I've been posting this new method have been dreadful and my CBB this year has been worse. But with that being said, somebody posted about making money tailing Frosty. I have his record at about 53.3%. I don't think anybody's making any money at 53.3%. It's a hell of a lot better than what I've been doing in hockey and hoops, but am I wrong here? I've been gambling off and on for maybe 5 years, at least consistently. The longer I play the more I start to realize just how hard it is to actually MAKE money and how few people really do. I've had football seasons where I've been up fractionally, but not enough to buy a Mercedes or anything. Guys I follow on Twitter who are supposed to be great...........I don't think they are. Stuckey? He's hit some futures the last few years. I've tailed him in hoops and hockey at times. Not good. Dave Cokin? He's been getting killed lately. I like this new NBA guy I'm tailing because the mindset is similar to what I'm doing with NHL. But it hasn't been profitable thus far. The only thing I keep thinking is that it makes too much sense to not be profitable. Marco D'Angelo seems to be about the best I've found. Wes Reynolds bets everything in sight, I don't think he wins. I follow lots of so called geniuses on twitter. I have yet to find anybody that I think is really making money. Rant over.

extremely hard to make money long-term betting sides and totals.

that's not the case with props though. I think many of us make our money with those and dabble with the other stuff.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Assuming -110 on all the losses he should still be about +10.7 units unless I'm having a math fail

 

[tjnc09]

Assuming -110 on all the losses he should still be about +10.7 units unless I'm having a math fail

Yes. ~52.4% is break even.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I always hate leading a conversation by saying "no offense", because it usually means I'm about to offend someone, and I'm being sincere here, because that's not really my intent. Bear in mind that my hockey record for the most part since I've been posting this new method have been dreadful and my CBB this year has been worse. But with that being said, somebody posted about making money tailing Frosty. I have his record at about 53.3%. I don't think anybody's making any money at 53.3%. It's a hell of a lot better than what I've been doing in hockey and hoops, but am I wrong here? I've been gambling off and on for maybe 5 years, at least consistently. The longer I play the more I start to realize just how hard it is to actually MAKE money and how few people really do. I've had football seasons where I've been up fractionally, but not enough to buy a Mercedes or anything. Guys I follow on Twitter who are supposed to be great...........I don't think they are. Stuckey? He's hit some futures the last few years. I've tailed him in hoops and hockey at times. Not good. Dave Cokin? He's been getting killed lately. I like this new NBA guy I'm tailing because the mindset is similar to what I'm doing with NHL. But it hasn't been profitable thus far. The only thing I keep thinking is that it makes too much sense to not be profitable. Marco D'Angelo seems to be about the best I've found. Wes Reynolds bets everything in sight, I don't think he wins. I follow lots of so called geniuses on twitter. I have yet to find anybody that I think is really making money. Rant over.

extremely hard to make money long-term betting sides and totals.

that's not the case with props though. I think many of us make our money with those and dabble with the other stuff.

yeah I think most of us here at least know that Props are the way to make money and the other stuff is for fun. While traditional thinking is the opposite.

 

[gussy]

And I've tailed nobody on props ever. So you're saying I should tail a bunch of these SB props and maybe my mind will change? I appreciate all the feedback.

 

[tjnc09]

DePaul / Providence tips in an hour and a half

Providence -10.5, imo.

DePaul is 7-1 ATS in conference play. Their only loss was vs Xavier by 13 as a 12 point dog. They have been lined as dogs all 8 games and won outright as a 5, 10.5, 10, 6, and 9.5 pt dog. /chainsaw

So they're due.

Possibly. Providence is 5-2 ATS in conference play. They are 3-1 ATS as favorites.

you both know more about CBB then 10 of me would ever know, but I think stats like these with CBB might not be as good as some other sports because a lot of these teams so inconsistent from night to night. they can shoot the lights out one night and look like knuckleheads the next for no real reason.

Isn't that true about any sport though? Look at Oregon for example. They crush the defending college champion and then lose handily a few weeks later.

There isn't one correct way to cap, but I think any information you can gather is important. Knowing what the books are doing and trying to do can be as important (sometimes even more important) than the matchup on paper.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

And I've tailed nobody on props ever. So you're saying I should tail a bunch of these SB props and maybe my mind will change? I appreciate all the feedback.

ask swirve how he did on his NFL props this year. pretty sure everybody here who tailed him made money.

 

[regularguy]

And I've tailed nobody on props ever. So you're saying I should tail a bunch of these SB props and maybe my mind will change? I appreciate all the feedback.

ask swirve how he did on his NFL props this year. pretty sure everybody here who tailed him made money.

Not to mention your tackle props too. I'd be interested in seeing your final record/units either pre/post SB.

 

[Whomper]

I am fairly new to this thread. I probably got her during baseball season last year. I actually signed up here to just say hello to a friend of mine that used to post on another board. I saw this thread and being a degenerate I was like a moth to the flame. Sometimes small movement on prop lines scared me away from tailing swirve. I didnt want to be that guy and ask him if I should still play it since it moved because there was slight movement on a lot of them and he shouldnt have to offer his insight twice. I then kicked myself every Sunday night because the guy is on point for sure. I know nothing about CBB so I pretty much blind tail Frosty. You can make money tailing a guy hitting 54% if you dont play every one of his picks and apply your own opinion to narrow down his stuff. If he puts up 5 picks I might not play the road dog only getting a few points or I might not play some for whatever reason. I take a guys picks and narrow them down with my own opinion and that can bump up a guys percentage

 

[John Bender]

I am fairly new to this thread. I probably got her during baseball season last year. I actually signed up here to just say hello to a friend of mine that used to post on another board. I saw this thread and being a degenerate I was like a moth to the flame. Sometimes small movement on prop lines scared me away from tailing swirve. I didnt want to be that guy and ask him if I should still play it since it moved because there was slight movement on a lot of them and he shouldnt have to offer his insight twice. I then kicked myself every Sunday night because the guy is on point for sure. I know nothing about CBB so I pretty much blind tail Frosty. You can make money tailing a guy hitting 54% if you dont play every one of his picks and apply your own opinion to narrow down his stuff. If he puts up 5 picks I might not play the road dog only getting a few points or I might not play some for whatever reason. I take a guys picks and narrow them down with my own opinion and that can bump up a guys percentage

I pick and choose as well. Playing 10-12 sides/totals a nights is too much to sweat for me. One night can send you -EV for the month at that volume.

Of course, one night can send you +EV for the month

Also...

THERE HE IS!!! A!

 

[swirvenirvin]

And I've tailed nobody on props ever. So you're saying I should tail a bunch of these SB props and maybe my mind will change? I appreciate all the feedback.

ask swirve how he did on his NFL props this year. pretty sure everybody here who tailed him made money.

Not to mention your tackle props too. I'd be interested in seeing your final record/units either pre/post SB.

yeah me, rud, gr with his, frosty in ball, and other random ones from gpj, lumpy, nugs, pm and others. Would say we hit over 56% combined. A few weeks were you just tread the water but ther are always a few monster weeks in there.

More plays for me this year but I was 137 units

2014 Summary			Units	RecordWeek 1	0.90	20-17Week 2	3.38	24-18Week 3	9.49	28-16Week 4	-5.99	26-27Week 5	0.93	22-17Week 6	0.05	24-23Week 7	2.74	23-18Week 8 	4.65	22-15Week 9 	13.31	26-14Week 10	12.94	30-19Week 11	8.20	26-16Week 12	14.14	29-14Week 13	9.11	40-25Week 14	22.24	37-18Week 15	11.54	24-12Week 16	3.99	32-24Week 17	1.76	12-8Regular Season	113.38	445-301Wild Card	0.88	11-10Divisional	-0.84	19-15Conference	23.75	15-5Super Bowl		Playoffs  	23.79	45-302014 Futures	0.21	33-262014 Total	137.38	523-357

 

[Frostillicus]

Assuming -110 on all the losses he should still be about +10.7 units unless I'm having a math fail

I have it at +17.3u, but a lot of the same day lines (which includes all totals) I play I get -105 or so from 5dimes.

Also yes, props are for making money, sides and totals are for fun.

 

[Frostillicus]

Bovada:

Loving (osu) u 10.5p

Boatright (uconn) u 16.5p

Ellis (cin) u 16.5p+r

Alford (ucla) u 14.5p

 

[tjnc09]

Assuming -110 on all the losses he should still be about +10.7 units unless I'm having a math fail

I have it at +17.3u, but a lot of the same day lines (which includes all totals) I play I get -105 or so from 5dimes.

Also yes, props are for making money, sides and totals are for fun.

+17.3u and you are just doing it for fun? #changethat

 

[comfortably numb]

I always hate leading a conversation by saying "no offense", because it usually means I'm about to offend someone, and I'm being sincere here, because that's not really my intent. Bear in mind that my hockey record for the most part since I've been posting this new method have been dreadful and my CBB this year has been worse. But with that being said, somebody posted about making money tailing Frosty. I have his record at about 53.3%. I don't think anybody's making any money at 53.3%. It's a hell of a lot better than what I've been doing in hockey and hoops, but am I wrong here? I've been gambling off and on for maybe 5 years, at least consistently. The longer I play the more I start to realize just how hard it is to actually MAKE money and how few people really do. I've had football seasons where I've been up fractionally, but not enough to buy a Mercedes or anything. Guys I follow on Twitter who are supposed to be great...........I don't think they are. Stuckey? He's hit some futures the last few years. I've tailed him in hoops and hockey at times. Not good. Dave Cokin? He's been getting killed lately. I like this new NBA guy I'm tailing because the mindset is similar to what I'm doing with NHL. But it hasn't been profitable thus far. The only thing I keep thinking is that it makes too much sense to not be profitable. Marco D'Angelo seems to be about the best I've found. Wes Reynolds bets everything in sight, I don't think he wins. I follow lots of so called geniuses on twitter. I have yet to find anybody that I think is really making money. Rant over.

I go into the + tailing everyone and then promptly lose it with picks of my own.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Truth of the matter is, anyone with half a brain will beat up on Sportsbook props and get booted. Heck, you'll get booted from everywhere online. You then have to get creative and get local outs, open up Sportsbook accounts through others, etc. NE/Seattle game line is one game and very easy to set. O/U 5.5 kick returns isn't easy to set and only available once a year - we are as capable as books to make this line.

For as good as Swirv is, he's beating up on quick Sportsbook props and moves lines quickly (rightfully so). There was some plays that other books didn't even offer. It's the same thing GR did for years here before rightfully so going tout.

There's so many ways to make money in sports but the options are drying up. Correlated parlays, stale team totals on late moving lines (under 106 Cavs TT last night), stale 1st to 20 props, etc.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

My strategy on props is to play the opposite of whatever Swirv plays, because I'm pretty sure he's an ISIS agent sent here to destabilize America, and everyone knows ISIS dudes never hit their free throws.

 

[swirvenirvin]

My strategy on props is to play the opposite of whatever Swirv plays, because I'm pretty sure he's an ISIS agent sent here to destabilize America, and everyone knows ISIS dudes never hit their free throws.

game in 2 hours where is my basketball emoticon thing

O/U on FT attempts

O/U on FT makes

 

[gmbacm]

My strategy on props is to play the opposite of whatever Swirv plays, because I'm pretty sure he's an ISIS agent sent here to destabilize America, and everyone knows ISIS dudes never hit their free throws.

game in 2 hours where is my basketball emoticon thing

O/U on FT attempts

O/U on FT makes

26

4

Wait - or are you asking about Valerie's line?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Also will a Taylor Swift song be playing while shooting a FT

Yes -130

No - Even

 

[Jene Bramel]

And I've tailed nobody on props ever. So you're saying I should tail a bunch of these SB props and maybe my mind will change? I appreciate all the feedback.

ask swirve how he did on his NFL props this year. pretty sure everybody here who tailed him made money.

Not to mention your tackle props too. I'd be interested in seeing your final record/units either pre/post SB.

I don't bet as many as Rud, but tackle props only for me this year were 56-40-3 after a bit of a rough start. I wasn't very good about tracking my units, but my multiple unit bets tended to do very well. Max bets for me were 7-0.

 

[modogg]

I always hate leading a conversation by saying "no offense", because it usually means I'm about to offend someone, and I'm being sincere here, because that's not really my intent. Bear in mind that my hockey record for the most part since I've been posting this new method have been dreadful and my CBB this year has been worse. But with that being said, somebody posted about making money tailing Frosty. I have his record at about 53.3%. I don't think anybody's making any money at 53.3%. It's a hell of a lot better than what I've been doing in hockey and hoops, but am I wrong here? I've been gambling off and on for maybe 5 years, at least consistently. The longer I play the more I start to realize just how hard it is to actually MAKE money and how few people really do. I've had football seasons where I've been up fractionally, but not enough to buy a Mercedes or anything. Guys I follow on Twitter who are supposed to be great...........I don't think they are. Stuckey? He's hit some futures the last few years. I've tailed him in hoops and hockey at times. Not good. Dave Cokin? He's been getting killed lately. I like this new NBA guy I'm tailing because the mindset is similar to what I'm doing with NHL. But it hasn't been profitable thus far. The only thing I keep thinking is that it makes too much sense to not be profitable. Marco D'Angelo seems to be about the best I've found. Wes Reynolds bets everything in sight, I don't think he wins. I follow lots of so called geniuses on twitter. I have yet to find anybody that I think is really making money. Rant over.

extremely hard to make money long-term betting sides and totals.

that's not the case with props though. I think many of us make our money with those and dabble with the other stuff.

betting online is a whole other world then old school bookie gambling but i have been at this for probably 15 years and am not broke yet. MMA/UFC has been my saving grace a lot

 

[[icon]]

I still have very comfortable prop limits on my Sportsbook account despite working with GooRoo For a while (layed off some bets for him and sent him checks when cashouts landed)

I'm willing to sublet out my sportsbook account headroom for a share of the take if someone was so inclined.

Examples of current mins I've got:
• Superbowl Player & Game Props : To Win $1000
• Novelty Props : To Win $100

 

[Raider Nation]

I was thinking of you guys in here the other day and had to laugh while listening to Mike Francesa, who as most of you know, is wrong about everything.

A guy calls up asking Mike about Super Bowl props. He goes on this rant about how props are sucker bets and you cannot beat them. Yeah, pretty close. Props are the ONLY thing you can beat. It must actually be quite soothing to go through life with an empty head.

 

[gussy]

Thursday Pucks:

Ducks -105

Blues/Flames +196

Wings/Bolts O5 1/2 EVEN

Leafs/Yotes U5 1/2 EVEN

Isles -1/2 RT +130

Bolts -1/2 RT +110

Flames -1/2 +145

Sens -105

 

[comfortably numb]

DePaul / Providence tips in an hour and a half

Providence -10.5, imo.

DePaul is 7-1 ATS in conference play. Their only loss was vs Xavier by 13 as a 12 point dog. They have been lined as dogs all 8 games and won outright as a 5, 10.5, 10, 6, and 9.5 pt dog. /chainsaw

So they're due.

IN.....because it's a 2PM game

who hoo!

Always fascinates me how many times these odds makers get so close to the line.

 

[mquinnjr]

I was thinking of you guys in here the other day and had to laugh while listening to Mike Francesa, who as most of you know, is wrong about everything.

A guy calls up asking Mike about Super Bowl props. He goes on this rant about how props are sucker bets and you cannot beat them. Yeah, pretty close. Props are the ONLY thing you can beat. It must actually be quite soothing to go through life with an empty head.

So, who does Big Mike think rolls in the 2015 Super Bowl ?

 

[Raider Nation]

Hasn't said yet. Loved Denver last year.

 

[mquinnjr]

Hasn't said yet. Loved Denver last year.

Perfect.

 

[jamil]

My strategy on props is to play the opposite of whatever Swirv plays, because I'm pretty sure he's an ISIS agent sent here to destabilize America, and everyone knows ISIS dudes never hit their free throws.

game in 2 hours where is my basketball emoticon thing

O/U on FT attempts

O/U on FT makes

19

6.5

Only concern is they scouted your numbers and go into hack-a-swirv.

 

[Peyton Marino]

if there is music being played at all, I can't see any way they don't play Taylor Swift at some point. 'blank space' is huge lately and 'shake it off' hasn't completely gone away either. and she's got a new one out that was on the radio this morning.

no music should be no action imo.

 

[lumpy19]

Hasn't said yet. Loved Denver last year.

Perfect.

I loved Denver last year

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

if there is music being played at all, I can't see any way they don't play Taylor Swift at some point. 'blank space' is huge lately and 'shake it off' hasn't completely gone away either. and she's got a new one out that was on the radio this morning.

no music should be no action imo.

I have no idea what this post is about. You're betting on music somewhere?

 

[[icon]]

More I read the more I think this is SEA's game to loose.

Added Lynch Rushing Over 88.5 -130 for 1u and change (free bet) at SB

Fantastic Read posted in the SP

 

[mquinnjr]

Hasn't said yet. Loved Denver last year.

Perfect.

I loved Denver last year

Me too, my biggest bet to date!



ETA: Was in Vegas for that one the weekend before. Still have the ticket, which I keep as a gentle reminder for when I start to get aggressive with larger units.

 

[Frostillicus]

Rutgers +415.

I feel this one coming.

 

[Peyton Marino]

if there is music being played at all, I can't see any way they don't play Taylor Swift at some point. 'blank space' is huge lately and 'shake it off' hasn't completely gone away either. and she's got a new one out that was on the radio this morning.

no music should be no action imo.

I have no idea what this post is about. You're betting on music somewhere?

Also will a Taylor Swift song be playing while shooting a FT

Yes -130

No - Even

 

[modogg]

Rutgers +415.

I feel this one coming.

worth any 2nd half action or is it a lost cause at this point?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

DONT YOU GIVE UP ON ME!

 

[swirvenirvin]

Rutgers +415.

I feel this one coming.

stop hating on my Spartans

 

[swirvenirvin]

My strategy on props is to play the opposite of whatever Swirv plays, because I'm pretty sure he's an ISIS agent sent here to destabilize America, and everyone knows ISIS dudes never hit their free throws.

game in 2 hours where is my basketball emoticon thing

O/U on FT attempts

O/U on FT makes

19

6.5

Only concern is they scouted your numbers and go into hack-a-swirv.

Big 0-0 on FT's

They played some dumb 1-3-1 mix 2-3 zone and was tough to get it inside.

6-7 from 2 and missed my 1 3 pointer I take a year cause I was feeling it

Got the W and 3-1

 

[Frostillicus]

Yeah well nobody likes Rutgers anyway.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Yeah well nobody likes Rutgers anyway.

yeah they kinda suck, but beat Wisky somehow

 

[Treynwreck3]

Yeah well nobody likes Rutgers anyway.

Aren't they in the crappiest hole in Newark?I rented a car near their campus once and thought I landed in the middle of a Lil' John video.

 

[comfortably numb]

Yeah well nobody likes Rutgers anyway.

Aren't they in the crappiest hole in Newark?I rented a car near their campus once and thought I landed in the middle of a Lil' John video.

That must have been the Newark campus.

Main campus is in New Brunswick with stadium/arena in Piscatiway