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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Frostillicus
Footballguy
San Fran/BYU o 159 in the late TV game.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I'm on 1h u76 and game u161.5.......so i guess 75 1h points and 160 total points?
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
I'm sure it was in Newark. About 5 years ago during we worst heatwave to hit the northeast in 100 years. It was 109 when we left Newark. Cab ride and airport were maddening. I got stopped at TSA security and scanned for explosives because I was sweating like a slave.comfortably numb said:
Frostillicus
Footballguy
That sounds good.
I'm on 1h u76 and game u161.5.......so i guess 75 1h points and 160 total points?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Tomorrow: Oregon +6.5
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I ####### love gambling. I bet small enough that it will never make a real difference in my life (other than following great prop guys like goo roo who paid for me to take my dad on an east coast baseball trip) but I just love getting #### right or wrong. People who don't gamble are really missing out.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
stupid lumpy
got_nugs
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
This Lynch and Gronkowski playing Mortal Kombat with Conan thing is way better than the rest of this dumb media day #### combined.
Zegras11
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I never get tired of him.Raider Nation said:I was thinking of you guys in here the other day and had to laugh while listening to Mike Francesa, who as most of you know, is wrong about everything.
A guy calls up asking Mike about Super Bowl props. He goes on this rant about how props are sucker bets and you cannot beat them.Yeah, pretty close. Props are the ONLY thing you can beat. It must actually be quite soothing to go through life with an empty head.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
FO breakdown. Lots of great stuff in here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2015/super-bowl-xlix-preview
Schatz picks SEA, gun-to-head, but sees it as a very, very close game.
Schatz picks SEA, gun-to-head, but sees it as a very, very close game.
Warsteinner
Footballguy
Has anyone made Judge's chili before? Will the recipe he has in the thread serve 10-12 or should I double down on ingredients?
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Double it. You will want leftovers. That being said that should feed 10-12 fairly easily.
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
That's the whole deal for me. Money to where you care enough to enjoy games you play, but it's basically a hobby where if you went 0-20 through a bankroll playing @ 5% (incl. juice) a play, it's no big deal. Like H2H fantasy football, but more intense.
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jamil
Footballguy
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southeastjerome
Footballguy
Finding it hard to keep up with this thread. Do any of the regulars care to share some of the solid consensus prop bets out there??
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
lumpy19
Footballguy
Lipitor, if its hard for 4 hours, call a doctor
I love gronk
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Avalanche -115
Glllllllllllll
Glllllllllllll
https://www.yahoo.com/music/katy-perry-has-taken-extreme-measures-to-make-sure-109534505786.html
point #4 sounds like Roar is going to get played, but point #5 scares me.
[icon]
Insoxicated
JEREMY SCOTT : WOMEN'S FASHION IMAGES
Looks like he GENERALLY prefers "more conservative lines with wild fabrics/patterns doing the talking". That said, he's designing for #### McGhee on the biggest stage of his life....
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gussy
Footballguy
Friday Pucks:
Hawks at Ducks (-105) Hard lean to the Ducks here despite coming off of a game in San Jose last night and playing their 3rd in 4 nights. Ducks rested Anderson last night so he'll get the start in goal tonight and he's been on fire of late. Crawford has not been playing well at all. As a Hawk fan I'm really hoping we see playoff Crow soon because right now this team has trouble in net. Hawks coming off of extremely physical game with Kings two nights ago. I'm not sure I have the stones to play Anaheim in this spot, but I see nothing making me look at Chicago. Ducks are 5-3 on 2nd night of back to back'ers, Crawford is giving up 4 goals a game over his last 4...............I don't have a TT number yet on the Ducks for goals scored, but if it's 2.5 and the juice isn't too high, that may be the best way to play this game. Jury is still out here. Lean Ducks.
Pens at Devils (+120) Lean New Jersey here. I hate gambling scared, which is what I feel I'm doing. I feel like things are starting to turn around a bit, but still losing more than I'd like. If I was going good I'd definitely be playing NJ. Schneider is playing very well right now, as I mentioned in my last write up on NJ, they are playing much better hockey. There losses have been on the road to good teams and they've beaten some good teams recently. Pens are still struggling and I think they're a first round playoff exit team this year. You can get +125 on NJ over 2.5 goals, and I think that's a good play. Fleury is giving up nearly 4 goals/game over his last 5. Lean Devils at the plus money and Devils over 2.5 goals.
Blues at Canes (+105) Little surprised that Canes are only pulling +105 here. Canes are playing MUCH better hockey as of late. The stats say they are the 29th best scoring team in the league, but those numbers are very skewed. With Staal back they are MUCH better. Blues coming off of hard fought SO win over Preds last night. They are 4-3 this year on 2nd night of back to backs, but this is a clear letdown spot. Tough to go against hot Blues, but this screams Carolina home win. Lean Canes. OT is also worth a look in this game, but I don't think you're going to get high enough odds to be able to make it a play.
Preds at Avs (-115) See above. Preds coming off of hard fought SO loss in St. Louis last night, quick turn around to Denver today. We now have 5 games to look at Preds w/o Rinne and we know who they are. They are going to score a lot of goals, they are going to give up more goals with Hutton in net, they are still going to be somewhat tough to beat at home, but a fade team on the road. Preds are 1-4 this year on 2nd night of back to back's, just REALLY tough spot here. This game screams OT win for COL to me. COL has immediate revenge spot here after losing in Nash in OT on Tuesday. Lean AVS, slight lean to the OVER 5.5, LOVE the OT play, but the odds won't be high enough to make it a play.
Sabes at Nucks (-340) I've gone through the Buffalo futility at length so I'm not going to revisit it. Catching 280 on 2nd night of back to back on West Coast swing. Some day Buffalo is going to win a game as a huge underdog, just hard saying when. Ryan Miller had been playing very well before his last 2 games, but those were in Tampa and against the Ducks at home, so I can give him a bit of a break there. There's no way to play the game. You could tie Nucks in to some parlays, but as soon as you do that trying to squeeze a little juice the Sabes will decide to show up. Risk not worth reward. I've got the BUF TT at 1.5!!! I'm not touching that. I just see nothing here. PASS.
Avs -110
1/2 unit plays
Devils +120
Devils TT O 2.5 +140
Canes +115
Preds/Avs O 5.5 +105
Ducks -105
Blues/Canes OT +270
Preds/Avs OT +260
Hawks at Ducks (-105) Hard lean to the Ducks here despite coming off of a game in San Jose last night and playing their 3rd in 4 nights. Ducks rested Anderson last night so he'll get the start in goal tonight and he's been on fire of late. Crawford has not been playing well at all. As a Hawk fan I'm really hoping we see playoff Crow soon because right now this team has trouble in net. Hawks coming off of extremely physical game with Kings two nights ago. I'm not sure I have the stones to play Anaheim in this spot, but I see nothing making me look at Chicago. Ducks are 5-3 on 2nd night of back to back'ers, Crawford is giving up 4 goals a game over his last 4...............I don't have a TT number yet on the Ducks for goals scored, but if it's 2.5 and the juice isn't too high, that may be the best way to play this game. Jury is still out here. Lean Ducks.
Pens at Devils (+120) Lean New Jersey here. I hate gambling scared, which is what I feel I'm doing. I feel like things are starting to turn around a bit, but still losing more than I'd like. If I was going good I'd definitely be playing NJ. Schneider is playing very well right now, as I mentioned in my last write up on NJ, they are playing much better hockey. There losses have been on the road to good teams and they've beaten some good teams recently. Pens are still struggling and I think they're a first round playoff exit team this year. You can get +125 on NJ over 2.5 goals, and I think that's a good play. Fleury is giving up nearly 4 goals/game over his last 5. Lean Devils at the plus money and Devils over 2.5 goals.
Blues at Canes (+105) Little surprised that Canes are only pulling +105 here. Canes are playing MUCH better hockey as of late. The stats say they are the 29th best scoring team in the league, but those numbers are very skewed. With Staal back they are MUCH better. Blues coming off of hard fought SO win over Preds last night. They are 4-3 this year on 2nd night of back to backs, but this is a clear letdown spot. Tough to go against hot Blues, but this screams Carolina home win. Lean Canes. OT is also worth a look in this game, but I don't think you're going to get high enough odds to be able to make it a play.
Preds at Avs (-115) See above. Preds coming off of hard fought SO loss in St. Louis last night, quick turn around to Denver today. We now have 5 games to look at Preds w/o Rinne and we know who they are. They are going to score a lot of goals, they are going to give up more goals with Hutton in net, they are still going to be somewhat tough to beat at home, but a fade team on the road. Preds are 1-4 this year on 2nd night of back to back's, just REALLY tough spot here. This game screams OT win for COL to me. COL has immediate revenge spot here after losing in Nash in OT on Tuesday. Lean AVS, slight lean to the OVER 5.5, LOVE the OT play, but the odds won't be high enough to make it a play.
Sabes at Nucks (-340) I've gone through the Buffalo futility at length so I'm not going to revisit it. Catching 280 on 2nd night of back to back on West Coast swing. Some day Buffalo is going to win a game as a huge underdog, just hard saying when. Ryan Miller had been playing very well before his last 2 games, but those were in Tampa and against the Ducks at home, so I can give him a bit of a break there. There's no way to play the game. You could tie Nucks in to some parlays, but as soon as you do that trying to squeeze a little juice the Sabes will decide to show up. Risk not worth reward. I've got the BUF TT at 1.5!!! I'm not touching that. I just see nothing here. PASS.
Avs -110
1/2 unit plays
Devils +120
Devils TT O 2.5 +140
Canes +115
Preds/Avs O 5.5 +105
Ducks -105
Blues/Canes OT +270
Preds/Avs OT +260
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comfortably numb
Footballguy
Aaron
any of the IDP matchups stick out to you?
i.e
total tackles+ assists
Chung +1.5 vs Chancellor
?
any of the IDP matchups stick out to you?
i.e
total tackles+ assists
Chung +1.5 vs Chancellor
?
regularguy
Footballguy
Who will have the most crotch grabs During Super Bowl XLIX?
Katy Perry (-120)
Marshawn Lynch (-120)
Katy Perry (-120)
Marshawn Lynch (-120)
yeah
I played these 3 pretty hard:
2u Wilfork -.5 > McDaniel +.5 (-115)
1.5u Ninkovich -1 > Irvin +1 (-115)
1.5u McCourty +2 > Thomas -2 (-120)
1. McDaniel has 16 solos and 23 assists on the year. Seems very assist-heavy.
Wilfork has 26 solos and 25 assists on the year.
McDaniel only played 37% of snaps against Green Bay and almost never goes over 50%.
Wilfork hasn't seen less than 50% of snaps for New England all year and usually plays close to a full game.
Have to assume Seahawks rush attempts will be higher than Patriots, plus Wilson is easier to sack.
2. Irvin sees a lot of playing time, but isn't very productive usually. 26 solos and 15 assists on the year and a good chunk came from sacks (7.5).
Ninkovich 50 solos and 21 assists. This seems like a solid play as well given a likely disparity in rush attempts. Plus, can be used as semi-hedge on the Ninkovich under 4.5 tackle prop, which I already hit hard.
3. One of my biggest bets of the game wound up being the under for Earl Thomas (got some at 5.5 and some at 6), but mainly because of his injury situation. He still scares me. That being said, McCourty is lined at 4 or 4.5 while Thomas is lined at 5.5 or 6. If we expect Thomas to finish below 6, then we just need McCourty to get to 3 for a push at worst. Apart from the weird game against Indy, he posted 3 or more tackles in 12 straight games. Only gets 25% of his tackles from assists so stat crew shouldn't be a huge factor for him.
My other leans/small plays on matchup props:
Revis +.5 vs Sherman -.5 (-115)
Sherman is lined at 3.5 most places while Revis is at 2.5. Tough to rely on Sherman out tackling anyone, but he does have 7 tackles in 2 playoff games while Revis has just 2, and the Seattle passing attack isn't that prolific. This exact comparison is lined at +1/-1 at same odds at RB so looks like 5d offers good value on Sherman.
Collins +1 vs Wagner -1 (-115)
This seems like a toss-up. I'm on the unders for both players at their respective lines. I'd lean Wagner just because he seems to have less competition for tackles and is more consistent week to week, but don't feel that strongly about it.
Hightower -1 vs KJ Wright +1 (-115)
Hightower has exactly 100 combined tackles this year and 42 came from assists. Wright has 119 and 34% came from assists. So, maybe he's less dependent on his stat crew pumping up his numbers. If both guys are under their numbers and wind up in the 5 or 6 tackle range, that +1 feels significant, but I could see Lynch/Wilson runs leading to higher numbers for Hightower here so BWIH.
Hightower -.5 (-115) vs Chancellor +.5
Hightower is lined a full tackle higher and should be the better play here. But Chancellor got 22% of his tackles on assists while Hightower is at 42%.
Chung +1.5 (-115) vs Chancellor -1.5
Chung sat a lot against the Colts and looks like a huge liability in coverage. He'll probably see a lot more time against Seattle obviously, but still hard to back a guy like that. The 1.5 line feels big in a game where we are expecting low numbers across the board. Jene likes this one more than I do.
Chung vs Thomas (-115)
Playing U5.5 on both. Juice is much steeper for Chung (-135) than Thomas (+105) so I think there's some value on Thomas here but still a bit of a toss up.
Sherman is lined at 3.5 most places while Revis is at 2.5. Tough to rely on Sherman out tackling anyone, but he does have 7 tackles in 2 playoff games while Revis has just 2, and the Seattle passing attack isn't that prolific. This exact comparison is lined at +1/-1 at same odds at RB so looks like 5d offers good value on Sherman.
Collins +1 vs Wagner -1 (-115)
This seems like a toss-up. I'm on the unders for both players at their respective lines. I'd lean Wagner just because he seems to have less competition for tackles and is more consistent week to week, but don't feel that strongly about it.
Hightower -1 vs KJ Wright +1 (-115)
Hightower has exactly 100 combined tackles this year and 42 came from assists. Wright has 119 and 34% came from assists. So, maybe he's less dependent on his stat crew pumping up his numbers. If both guys are under their numbers and wind up in the 5 or 6 tackle range, that +1 feels significant, but I could see Lynch/Wilson runs leading to higher numbers for Hightower here so BWIH.
Hightower -.5 (-115) vs Chancellor +.5
Hightower is lined a full tackle higher and should be the better play here. But Chancellor got 22% of his tackles on assists while Hightower is at 42%.
Chung +1.5 (-115) vs Chancellor -1.5
Chung sat a lot against the Colts and looks like a huge liability in coverage. He'll probably see a lot more time against Seattle obviously, but still hard to back a guy like that. The 1.5 line feels big in a game where we are expecting low numbers across the board. Jene likes this one more than I do.
Chung vs Thomas (-115)
Playing U5.5 on both. Juice is much steeper for Chung (-135) than Thomas (+105) so I think there's some value on Thomas here but still a bit of a toss up.
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Whomper
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
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Warsteinner
Footballguy
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I honestly don't see how the Super Bowl even approaches the total. The punters could be the MVP.
modogg
Footballguy
i have to find the source, but i was reading an article or something that was discussing how Chung will have a bigger role in this game. I can't remember what it is off the top of my head so this is probably the most useless post i have had in a long time, but if i can find it i will provide a little more detail. i think it had to do with him being more involved with the game planning, and thus having more tackle opportunities then usual
modogg
Footballguy
check out the link in Tiger Fan's signature. Guy did a huge solid and tracked the plays in there
Side note - i still love the over viewers and the over in the Nielson ratings. Sounds like everybody wins with these numbers going up so we have a lot of people behind hoping for good numbers. i don't see any reason why the viewers would be less this year then last.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
There's sharps??
SportsInsights.com @SportsInsights · 16m16 minutes ago
RT @DaveMasonBOL If the sharps are correct, Shane Vereen and Marshawn Lynch will have bad days Sunday. Sharp $ on the under for many props.
SportsInsights.com @SportsInsights · 16m16 minutes ago
RT @DaveMasonBOL If the sharps are correct, Shane Vereen and Marshawn Lynch will have bad days Sunday. Sharp $ on the under for many props.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Dave Mason @DaveMasonBOL · Jan 28True story. Sharp action on Katy Perry to have cleavage during #SuperBowlXLIX halftime show. Odds move -500 to -550. http://bit.ly/18q9SG8
modogg
Footballguy
i really can't stop betting on props for this Super Bowl. RB really has done a good job of having a lot of them, jsut wish they had more under their "silly props"
just played Seattle will score more points in... 2nd half and OT -105
again, can't remember where i read it, but Seattle has started slow in the 1st half significantly over the last 4-5 games. of course they are just as aware of this and could gameplan for it, but i think this bet has a good chance of winning
just played Seattle will score more points in... 2nd half and OT -105
again, can't remember where i read it, but Seattle has started slow in the 1st half significantly over the last 4-5 games. of course they are just as aware of this and could gameplan for it, but i think this bet has a good chance of winning
