The Hank
Footballguy
It seems that every year, there is a certain breaking point in terms of consensus #1's, #2's, and #3's.
This year is just the same, its seems that everyone is in the same ballpark about the first 3 picks:
1. L.Tomlinson - SD -
2. S.Jackson - STL -
3. L.Johnson - KC -
------------------------------
4.?
From here lots of people are not sure who is actually the #4 best RB.
Of course everyone is different and everyone has 3-4 RBS they consider in this position, but there is no clear cut guy in any of the mock drafts I've seen at #4.
Here are the ones I am thinking of, and I'd like to see the FBG opinion of who is the #4 man:
* Frank Gore - SF -
-- After the breakout season that Gore had last year, it would be hard not to put him with the previous players mentioned. Only Larry Johnson (1789) and Ladainian Tomlinson (1815) had more yards than Gore (1695) rushing in the entire NFL, and 4 players out-recieved the SF RB (485). Gore's TD #'s were a solid combined (9) and stayed healthy throughout the season. However, the concern among most fantasy drafters is that very thing, his health. Not only has it been a problem in his past, this training camp he has already injured his hand (broken hand) and concerned about durability. Others are concerned about the change in offensive coordinator (Norv Turner - OAK) and feel that his output may waver. No one questions his outstanding upside, but in many redraft leagues, he has been sliding anywhere from the 4th to the 6th pick.
* Willie Parker - PIT -
-- Willie Parker enjoyed an excellent season being the go-to-guy since Bettis' retirement. Parker had the 6th best rushing yardage in the league (1494), with tied for 4th in rushing TDs (13), with 222 yds 3 TDs recieving. However, due to the changes in the coaching staff (HC Cowher, OC Whisenhunt, OL Grimm), an aging o-line, and a offensive scheme change, many fantasy drafters are overlooking him even after his break out year. New OC Bruce Arians has said that he wants Parker to see more reps on 3rd down and on the goal line situations, as well as catching more passes out of the flat due to an opened up offensive approach similar to Indy. So where Parker should be remains to be seen, anywhere from 4th pick - 8th.
* Shaun Alexander - SEA -
-- The '05 season was a record year for Alexander, setting personal records in TDs (27) and yards (1880), however '06 was an injury plagued season in which he missed 6 games with a broken foot and failed to reach 1000 yards (896) for the first time since 2000 (63). Also, Alexander averaged a paltry 3.8 ypc, and only a dismal 2 20+ yd carries. However, in a year mired by injury and disappointment, he still managed to put up a NFL 7th best yds/game (89.6) and 2nd best att/game (25.2), second only to L. Johnson. Most feel that SA is on the wrong side of 30 with a major injury to his foot to boot, but some have him ranked as high as #4 and as low as #10. So ask yourself, is that enough to make him the #4 RB?
* Joseph Addai - IND -
-- Whenever it was announced that D.Rhodes and Addai would share carries at the beginning of last season we all knew it was a matter of time before the 1st round pick would be in the starting lineup. Whenever Addai got that chance, performed above expectations, and he never let go of it. For the world champs Addai had a sensational rookie season in which he had over 1000 yards (1086) and 7 TDs on the rushing end, with an additional 300+ yds (325) and 3 TDs. Most feel that with Rhodes (641 yds 5 TDs) now in Oakland, Addai will assume his totals as his own which would give him over 2000 allpurpose yds and 15 TDs. Some owners are fearful of the sophomore slump of RBs (see C. Williams TB) and are fearful that he may lose some of the carries to backups DeDe Dorsey or Kenton Keith. I've seen Addai as high as #4 and as low as #10.
There are some other notables of players that could be #4 but all of them has their concern: B. Westbrook - PHI - (Durability), R. Johnson - CIN - ("Non-Sexy" pick, Offensive Approach), as well as others.
I am leaning towards Frank Gore due to the fact that he is still pretty much in the same offense, and there have been moves towards the O-Line and WR corps that will benefit Gore and help take the pressure off of him. Also, its hard to overlook a candidate that put in over 2000 yds of total offense. With these facts and his HR capable to go the distance at any time, I am hopeful that his TD #s will increase as he gets more familiar with starting in the NFL.
I would rank the list as this for #4 RB:
4. F. Gore - SF -
5. W. Parker - PIT -
6. J. Addai - IND -
7. B. Westbrook - PHI -
8. S. Alexander - SEA -
What say you?
This year is just the same, its seems that everyone is in the same ballpark about the first 3 picks:
1. L.Tomlinson - SD -
2. S.Jackson - STL -
3. L.Johnson - KC -
------------------------------
4.?
From here lots of people are not sure who is actually the #4 best RB.
Of course everyone is different and everyone has 3-4 RBS they consider in this position, but there is no clear cut guy in any of the mock drafts I've seen at #4.
Here are the ones I am thinking of, and I'd like to see the FBG opinion of who is the #4 man:
* Frank Gore - SF -
-- After the breakout season that Gore had last year, it would be hard not to put him with the previous players mentioned. Only Larry Johnson (1789) and Ladainian Tomlinson (1815) had more yards than Gore (1695) rushing in the entire NFL, and 4 players out-recieved the SF RB (485). Gore's TD #'s were a solid combined (9) and stayed healthy throughout the season. However, the concern among most fantasy drafters is that very thing, his health. Not only has it been a problem in his past, this training camp he has already injured his hand (broken hand) and concerned about durability. Others are concerned about the change in offensive coordinator (Norv Turner - OAK) and feel that his output may waver. No one questions his outstanding upside, but in many redraft leagues, he has been sliding anywhere from the 4th to the 6th pick.
* Willie Parker - PIT -
-- Willie Parker enjoyed an excellent season being the go-to-guy since Bettis' retirement. Parker had the 6th best rushing yardage in the league (1494), with tied for 4th in rushing TDs (13), with 222 yds 3 TDs recieving. However, due to the changes in the coaching staff (HC Cowher, OC Whisenhunt, OL Grimm), an aging o-line, and a offensive scheme change, many fantasy drafters are overlooking him even after his break out year. New OC Bruce Arians has said that he wants Parker to see more reps on 3rd down and on the goal line situations, as well as catching more passes out of the flat due to an opened up offensive approach similar to Indy. So where Parker should be remains to be seen, anywhere from 4th pick - 8th.
* Shaun Alexander - SEA -
-- The '05 season was a record year for Alexander, setting personal records in TDs (27) and yards (1880), however '06 was an injury plagued season in which he missed 6 games with a broken foot and failed to reach 1000 yards (896) for the first time since 2000 (63). Also, Alexander averaged a paltry 3.8 ypc, and only a dismal 2 20+ yd carries. However, in a year mired by injury and disappointment, he still managed to put up a NFL 7th best yds/game (89.6) and 2nd best att/game (25.2), second only to L. Johnson. Most feel that SA is on the wrong side of 30 with a major injury to his foot to boot, but some have him ranked as high as #4 and as low as #10. So ask yourself, is that enough to make him the #4 RB?
* Joseph Addai - IND -
-- Whenever it was announced that D.Rhodes and Addai would share carries at the beginning of last season we all knew it was a matter of time before the 1st round pick would be in the starting lineup. Whenever Addai got that chance, performed above expectations, and he never let go of it. For the world champs Addai had a sensational rookie season in which he had over 1000 yards (1086) and 7 TDs on the rushing end, with an additional 300+ yds (325) and 3 TDs. Most feel that with Rhodes (641 yds 5 TDs) now in Oakland, Addai will assume his totals as his own which would give him over 2000 allpurpose yds and 15 TDs. Some owners are fearful of the sophomore slump of RBs (see C. Williams TB) and are fearful that he may lose some of the carries to backups DeDe Dorsey or Kenton Keith. I've seen Addai as high as #4 and as low as #10.
There are some other notables of players that could be #4 but all of them has their concern: B. Westbrook - PHI - (Durability), R. Johnson - CIN - ("Non-Sexy" pick, Offensive Approach), as well as others.
I am leaning towards Frank Gore due to the fact that he is still pretty much in the same offense, and there have been moves towards the O-Line and WR corps that will benefit Gore and help take the pressure off of him. Also, its hard to overlook a candidate that put in over 2000 yds of total offense. With these facts and his HR capable to go the distance at any time, I am hopeful that his TD #s will increase as he gets more familiar with starting in the NFL.
I would rank the list as this for #4 RB:
4. F. Gore - SF -
5. W. Parker - PIT -
6. J. Addai - IND -
7. B. Westbrook - PHI -
8. S. Alexander - SEA -
What say you?
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i hear you. i find threads like this helpful, though, in forcing me to think through the options.
i hear you. i find threads like this helpful, though, in forcing me to think through the options.
i hear you. i find threads like this helpful, though, in forcing me to think through the options.
pretty standard format - .1 point per yard, 6 pt. per td, -2 pt. fum
