How Much Damage Did the Debate Do to Donald Trump?
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/how-much-damage-did-the-debate-do-to-donald-trump
Excerpt - "It will take until the weekend to know for sure how much damage Trump did to his candidacy on Monday. That’s when a slew of national and battleground-state polls taken after the debate are due to be published. The small amount of data we already have, though, suggests that Clinton can expect to enjoy a significant bounce. The Politico/Morning Consult poll is just one survey, but the numbers are telling.
Nine per cent of the respondents to the Politico/Morning Consult poll said the debate changed their minds about whom to vote for. Nine per cent of the electorate is a lot. If we assume that two-thirds of these voters switched to Clinton and one-third switched to Trump, which would be in line with the finding that Clinton won the debate by a two-to-one margin among respondents, we could expect the polls to swing in her favor by three per cent.
And, in fact, that is the kind of swing that the researchers from Politico/Morning Consult found when they asked respondents whom they intended to vote for. Going into the debate, this poll had indicated that Clinton was leading Trump by two points in a head-to-head matchup. Now Clinton is leading by four points—a two-point swing in her favor. In a four-way matchup that includes Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party, Clinton has also gained two points.
In the coming days, Clinton’s poll lead may well expand by more than two per cent, and perhaps by as much as four or five per cent. That’s partly because she was already on a slight upward trend in the days before the debate and also because she stands to benefit from all the positive coverage she has received in its aftermath. But the main reason is that Clinton did what she needed to do—rallying her base and appealing to independents. Trump didn’t meet his objectives—and further numbers suggest that’s putting it kindly.
One of Clinton’s challenges, going way back to the primaries, has been inspiring enthusiasm in progressive Democrats, particularly men, many of whom supported Bernie Sanders. But, after Monday’s debate, according to the Politico/Morning Consult poll, seventy four per cent of Democratic men said that they had a more favorable opinion of her after the debate. Fifty-two per cent said their opinion was “much more favorable.” That’s important. It suggests that, as the debates progress, Clinton could well take more votes from Johnson and Stein.
Clinton may also have picked up a bit of ground among independents, particularly independents who think of themselves as moderate rather than either liberal or conservative. In this group, forty per cent of Politico/Morning Consult’s respondents said that they had a more favorable opinion of her after the debate, and twenty-five per cent said they had a less favorable opinion. That wasn’t as impressive as her performance among Democrats, but it was a net positive.
With Trump, those numbers were flipped: twenty-six per cent of moderate independents said that they had a more favorable opinion of him after the debate; thirty-nine per cent said they had a less favorable opinion. The figures for the entire sample were similar. Thirty per cent of respondents over all said that they had a more favorable opinion of Trump after the debate; thirty-seven per cent said they had a less favorable opinion.
That as many as three in ten Americans raised their opinion of Trump after watching his performance should give the pundit class pause. But that number will provide little solace to Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager, and her colleagues. Trump has a large following, which responds enthusiastically to his bluster: nothing new there. But can he expand his support into a majority? Almost nothing about his performance on Monday night suggested that he can. Clinton, meanwhile, strengthened her lead."