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#1, unless you are playing in a total point league, kennison really isnt a viable option. with h2h, how the points come, is just as important as how many points a player gets.#2, with additions on defesne, games might be closer, which will require less passing
the bills are a much more talented team than the 49ers, which should mean, much more opportunity for willis. the problem with barlow last year wasnt talent, it was opportunity, his team sucked. i do agree though, that willis is being ranked high for my tatses. he essientally did all his damage when the bills went 9-3 after an 0-4 start. how likely are the bills to do that good again with JP at qb? if they arent a 9-3 team, will willis have the same opportunity? i dont think so
I can't speak for other staffers, but I omitted Morton because he's among the leading candidates to be a June 1st salary cap casualty. If Morton is on the Chiefs roster post June 1st and/or the team makes it clear they have no intentions of cutting him before that, he'll figure into my rankings most likely.
People may have questioned McNair's level of competition and his mechanics, but he was a prolific and high percentage passer in college. MUCH less risk in projecting him to evolve IMHO. Debating Vick is kind of like debating politics or religion in the FFA, we can all spend days making our respective points and ultimately it's not going to change anyone's mind one way or the other.
I have Arrington high and don't see him as a committee guy, but ko-jack is right in that Arrington is just as likely to share time/carries with one or two other runners as Dunn. Dunn finished 15th last year and had a career high 265 carries...RBBC or not, he produces when healthy.
Vick and McNair had identical completion percentages in college.
Dunn's ranking is solid for a projection ranking...but for a redraft-cheatsheet ranking, I'd take Arrington because of the upside. I will most likely have Arrington above Dunn in my projections as well, but I don't think it's absurd to have them flip-flopped.
Actually Vick's was higher (56.5%), I stand corrected. But McNair was still prolific, much moreso than Vick.
Good points on both sides here. I believe more people thought Steve McNair was a gifted passer out of college but that was due as much to the moniker 'Air' than what people had seen from his game (how many of us watch games of Alcorn State LOL).I am comparing them at this stage in their pro careers. I remember distinctly many folks out there stating McNair simply wasn't accurate enough as a passer and was more of an athlete than a quarterback. Sound familiar when compared to Vick.
And I once scored 5 touchdowns in a game for Polk High...
One other point on Vick and then I'll stand down too. There is a tremendous difference in the body types of Vick and McNair, Culpepper & McNabb. Vick not only runs more, but isn't built like a tank like those guys are. I realize every play is an injury risk, but there's still no way you can convince me Vick isn't more likely to get sidelined with a big hit. And even Vick himself has acknowledged multiple times that he HAS to become more of a passer and limit the running if he's going to stay healthy.Good points on both sides here. I believe more people thought Steve McNair was a gifted passer out of college but that was due as much to the moniker 'Air' than what people had seen from his game (how many of us watch games of Alcorn State LOL).I am comparing them at this stage in their pro careers. I remember distinctly many folks out there stating McNair simply wasn't accurate enough as a passer and was more of an athlete than a quarterback. Sound familiar when compared to Vick.
Vick has a cannon of an arm, the ability to scramble around which allows receivers to get open and is working within a similar offense for the 2nd year in a row. I also am not overwhelmed with his passing ability but heck, he only needs to put up decent passing numbers to end up top five and that is the attraction of Vick.
I agree folks on opposite sides of the Vick debate aren't likely to convince the other that their position is the correct one but it is still fun to try...
:getting off my soapbox:
For real?
You too
Excellent Point...quit stealing all of the anti-Vick arguments I plan on using in my critiqueOne other point on Vick and then I'll stand down too. There is a tremendous difference in the body types of Vick and McNair, Culpepper & McNabb. Vick not only runs more, but isn't built like a tank like those guys are. I realize every play is an injury risk, but there's still no way you can convince me Vick isn't more likely to get sidelined with a big hit. And even Vick himself has acknowledged multiple times that he HAS to become more of a passer and limit the running if he's going to stay healthy.Good points on both sides here. I believe more people thought Steve McNair was a gifted passer out of college but that was due as much to the moniker 'Air' than what people had seen from his game (how many of us watch games of Alcorn State LOL).I am comparing them at this stage in their pro careers. I remember distinctly many folks out there stating McNair simply wasn't accurate enough as a passer and was more of an athlete than a quarterback. Sound familiar when compared to Vick.
Vick has a cannon of an arm, the ability to scramble around which allows receivers to get open and is working within a similar offense for the 2nd year in a row. I also am not overwhelmed with his passing ability but heck, he only needs to put up decent passing numbers to end up top five and that is the attraction of Vick.
I agree folks on opposite sides of the Vick debate aren't likely to convince the other that their position is the correct one but it is still fun to try...
:getting off my soapbox:
Seriously though, I liken Vick's transition to Tiger Woods changing his swing....it's gonna take some time. While he's in transition he'll still be above average, but not as dominant as his potential/ability may lead one to believe.
What Mark said. The easiest, laziest thing in the world is to create a list that perfectly matches "conventional wisdom". Nobody questions you and you just roll along. It's much more difficult to go out on a limb every once in a while. Even harder to go out on a limb often. The entire reason we have all these guys give us their input is to get different sets of ideas and different viewpoints. Good stuff.
Hi Payne,That's an interesting thought on McGahee. Can you expound there some? Thanks.
Couldn't have said it better myself JB. Also one of the main reasons I continually subscribe.
I agree, I think McGahee is getting so much love because of the 13 TDs. People are projecting that as meaning, "over a full year McGahee could have 20 TDs." While this is theoretically true and, in fact, may prove to be the case, I'm not sure I'm willing to make that bet. At the very least, I'm surprised McGahee is considered one of the "locks" of the year...which it appears he is according to lots of perspectives (on our site and others) that I'm reading.
Sorry. I'll try to do better this year.
It's an interesting question, Jason.Knowing when to jump on and off the bandwagon is key. I used to be slower to jump on than I am now. Especially with RBs. I remember not being a Curtis Martin believer when he came out. Ankle troubles from Pitt, 3rd round pick yada yada. 14 touchdowns and 1400 yards - no way again. We all know how that turned out.
One thing that needs to be mentioned in reagards to McGahee is that the guy was clearly not playing a full speed last year. He was still half limping as he got up at times on the field. That should be all gone this year. Willis will finally be abck to his old self I think and that is a very scary thing for teams that have to stop him.
You're right about that cannon -- the problem is that he over/underthrows those lasers as often as he drills the receivers in the numbers. I have seen him make some unbelievable throws during his tenure in the league -- but not consistently.Vick has a cannon of an arm, the ability to scramble around which allows receivers to get open and is working within a similar offense for the 2nd year in a row. I also am not overwhelmed with his passing ability but heck, he only needs to put up decent passing numbers to end up top five and that is the attraction of Vick.
I agree folks on opposite sides of the Vick debate aren't likely to convince the other that their position is the correct one but it is still fun to try...
:getting off my soapbox:
I was well aware that ranking Dillon and Martin would be controversial. The rankings are obviously a very subjective process. One thing that must be done, whether in a person's head or on paper is to have an idea of what kind of numbers that player will have for that current season. When it comes to the actual projections that FBG's puts out, this is especially important. Everything must "match" at the end of the day, with each team's QB passing yardage equaling all the players receiving totals, etc.For me, in the rankings, I combine that process with an estimate of where I rank them if I were drafting. Where this comes into play, at least for me, is when I rank maybe a team's #3 RB higher than others, even though I don't necessarily think all 3 RB's obtain those totals. This aspect is sort of a gut feeling I have as I attempt to incorporate some upside for players into the rankings. This is perhaps why, as Maxwell pointed out, I have 4 Vikings RB's in my top 50. While I clearly don't think all 4 will end up top 50, when it comes to a draft, I rank them top 50 because of respective upsides they all have.I havent read through all the posts yet, but Dave Baker has Curtis Martin at 27? Is he predicting an injury, or was he on sabaticle last year? LMFAO!
PS: Dillon at 25? Dave, get one of these.....
true, but willis did his damage in a stretch of games when buffalo went 9-3. gebnerally speaking, if a team isnt winning, the opportunity for an rb decreases. off the top of my head the exceptions are lt2 from 2 years ago and p.holmes of last year. exception meaning, top 10 backs from losing teams.the ? is, how good will buffalo be?
Maybe not Holmes, but I mostly agree with this. Buffalo essentially has a rookie QB behind center....and somehow McGahee is going to do significantly BETTER this year? I doubt it. I do note that his overall rank is at 4, but his individual rankings are feast or famine.
I love to see going out on a limb too. I've got Cadillac as RB7 myself.No offense intended Mark, I respect the opinion of the entire staff, thanks for the explaination. I have just noticed that your rankings seem to deviate the most from the rest of the staff on a consistent basis.
