Thanks! It's never too early.
It looks like the RB stud theroy is still in full force here. With 9 of the top 10 RBs and the 24th RB going off the board at pick 37 if the rankings were a draft(and yes, I understand that rankings are not a mock).
Biggest suprise: Wimer putting Manning 19th
The Colts O is basically the same personal wise. I'm sure few people expect Manning to appraoch his numbers from last season, but Manning and C-pep were extremely valuable and did nice VBD numbers. With Moss gone and the D better in Minny, Manning's value over C-pep could increase even with a drop off. And Manning and C-pep were on a teir alone last season.
The way the numbers worked out for my first cut of rankings, the top RB's had more "X" value than usual, while I see Manning dropping back closer to his career averages this year: (352/554 for 4200 yards, 30 TDs and 17 interceptions)| 1998 ind | 16 | 326 575 56.7 3739 6.5 26 28 | 15 62 0 |
| 1999 ind | 16 | 331 533 62.1 4135 7.8 26 15 | 35 73 2 |
| 2000 ind | 16 | 357 571 62.5 4413 7.7 33 15 | 37 116 1 |
| 2001 ind | 16 | 343 547 62.7 4131 7.6 26 23 | 35 157 4 |
| 2002 ind | 16 | 392 591 66.3 4200 7.1 27 19 | 38 148 2 |
| 2003 ind | 16 | 379 566 67.0 4267 7.5 29 10 | 28 26 0 |
| 2004 ind | 16 | 336 497 67.6 4557 9.2 49 10 | 25 38 0 |
Although I did project him with more TD's (33-35) and less Interceptions (10-11) as he has drastically improved on interceptions over the past 2 seasons, to almost incredible levels last year. But 2004 was clearly a career year, IMO. With a return to more typical TD #'s, Manning is closer to the "pack" of fantasy QBs in 2005 (especially because he hardly ever runs the ball effectively anymore). Culpepper, McNabb, and Brooks (3 of my top 6 QB's) enjoy significant FP from rushing yards and TDs. Thus, Culpepper is significantly higher on the overall than Manning, as I see him doing roughly similar passing #s to Manning, (~200 yards passing and 1-2 TDs less than Manning), but getting way more valuable rushing yards/TDs. Culpepper has a fine receiving corps even without Moss (afterall, he put together last year's effort without a fully healthy Moss for roughly 1/2 the season)
When I crunched the numbers, the top RB's had a lot of value over the lower tier of backs who all have issues of either experience or competition for PT/TDs or both (Ronnie Brown, rookie, Mia OL; Warrick Dunn (Vick, Duckett); Steven Jackson (Faulk, youth, Martz ignores running game at times), and so forth.