First Round Rookie Draft Pick Tiers (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Off the top of my head:

Richardson

----------

Blackmon

Martin

Floyd

Luck

Griffin

----------

Wright

Miller

Wilson

James

Hill

----------

Fleener

Jeffery

Where to take the QBs is a tricky question. Obviously Luck and Griffin are much better prospects than Doug Martin, but a good starting RB is usually worth more than a good starting QB in most FF leagues. I see Martin as a Forte/Rice type of back for FF purposes. I think he will have big short term value, even though Luck and Griffin are superior talents.

Kendall Wright is the big loser of the offseason for me. He was moving up my board until the combine, but his poor showing there combined with his pitiful bench press numbers has me thinking he might be too lazy to maximize his natural talent.

Stephen Hill is the big riser. I'm not entirely sold, but his potential is worth a shot in the 9-12 range. I also like the upside of LaMichael James there.

The 12th spot could belong to any number of players, as I'm not very high on Jeffery. We'll see what happens with guys like Pierce, Turbin, Polk, Tannehill, and Randle in the draft. They are all contenders there.

 

[mlball77]

It’s hard to say what the tiers are right now (largely guesswork), but I believe it sort of looks like this as far as I can tell:

Tier 1

1.01

Richardson is on top of the heap right now, and that doesn’t seem likely to change.

Tier 2

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

Tier 2 gets messy, imo. If you feel Luck and/or Griffin are uber-special, I can understand spending a top 5 pick on them. I tend to be an owner that acquires QBs in ways outside of the draft, so I’d likely be looking at Blackmon, Martin, Miller and Floyd. –Right now, I have all six of these guys very close, landing spot could edge a guy up or down slightly. Currently Blackmon would be my 1.02, by a hair. --And even if I don’t want a QB with 1.03, for example, I am well aware that many in my league may be interested in that pick for that very reason.

Tier 3

1.08

1.09

1.10

This is where I see David Wilson and probably another two WR’s going (based on landing spot). Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill are possibilities, but I’m warming up to Alshon Jeffery and feel we could see him jump into this group if he lands in a nice spot.

Tier 4

1.11-2.XX

Not sure what to say here… the rest of the very desirable rookies fall in here. Polk and James are a couple of guys toward the top of this group possibly.

ETA: Left Blackmon off initially. D'oh.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Tier 1

1.01 Trent Richardson

Tier 2

1.02-1.05

(Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Michael Floyd,Doug Martin)

Tier 3

1.06-1.10

(David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stephen Hill, Kendall Wright, Alshon jeffery)

Tier 4

1.11-1.12

(Colby Fleener, Rueben Randle)

 

[nickdib]

Tier 11.01 Trent RichardsonTier 21.02-1.05(Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Michael Floyd,Doug Martin)Tier 31.06-1.10(David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stephen Hill, Kendall Wright, Alshon jeffery)Tier 41.11-1.12(Colby Fleener, Rueben Randle)

You forgot blackmon

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Tier 11.01 Trent RichardsonTier 21.02-1.06(Justin Blackmon, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Michael Floyd,Doug Martin)Tier 31.07-1.11(David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stephen Hill, Kendall Wright, Alshon jeffery)Tier 41.12-1.13(Colby Fleener, Rueben Randle)

You forgot blackmon

crap... edit to top of tier 2

 

[Synesthesia]

Also, comparing qb10 to rb10 is moving the goalposts. If people thought Luck was going to be qb10, they wouldn't be taking him early. If people thought Martin or Miller would be rb10, they'd be going 2nd overall. You're jousting with a straw man.

I don't think this is a straw man at all, nor moving the goalposts. There are 32 starting NFL QBs, but only 12 fantasy starters in a typical fantasy league. There are 32ish starting RBs, but 24-36 RB starting spots in a typical fantasy league. This positional scarcity is what makes the RB more likely to be useful for fantasy that the QB. A "pretty good" fantasy RB is still a fantasy RB2... a "pretty good" fantasy QB isn't necessarily even a starter.

It's a straw man because you're attacking an argument no one is making. If people thought Luck's downside was qb10 and Martin's was rb10, we wouldn't be having this discussion- everyone would be taking Martin with the 2nd pick. Instead, people think Luck's likely outcomes are qb1-10, and Martin's are rb8-30. That's a much more interesting comparison, one that isn't a slam dunk either way.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Also, comparing qb10 to rb10 is moving the goalposts. If people thought Luck was going to be qb10, they wouldn't be taking him early. If people thought Martin or Miller would be rb10, they'd be going 2nd overall. You're jousting with a straw man.

I don't think this is a straw man at all, nor moving the goalposts. There are 32 starting NFL QBs, but only 12 fantasy starters in a typical fantasy league. There are 32ish starting RBs, but 24-36 RB starting spots in a typical fantasy league. This positional scarcity is what makes the RB more likely to be useful for fantasy that the QB. A "pretty good" fantasy RB is still a fantasy RB2... a "pretty good" fantasy QB isn't necessarily even a starter.

It's a straw man because you're attacking an argument no one is making. If people thought Luck's downside was qb10 and Martin's was rb10, we wouldn't be having this discussion- everyone would be taking Martin with the 2nd pick. Instead, people think Luck's likely outcomes are qb1-10, and Martin's are rb8-30. That's a much more interesting comparison, one that isn't a slam dunk either way.

I don't believe FreeBagel was attacking a ranking argument when making that point. He was simply pointing out that fantasy QBs have a much tighter ranking window to be considered good and more so to be great than RBs do. A Doug Martin finishing in the 12-22 range is about the same, value-wise, as a Luck finishing in the 6-10 range. I certainly agree that we aren't talking about slam dunks here.

 

[stumpie71]

Tier 1

Luck

Griffin

Richardson

Tier 2

Blackmon

Floyd

Tier 3

Martin

Wilson

Miller

Wright

Hill

Mcnutt

Tanhehill

Tier 4

To Many to list from tier 4 on

Having a chance to draft a qb that has the possibility of putting up top 10 stats ( 3800+ yds, 25+ tds, with 100+ rush & 4+ tds) for 6 to 15 years I am taking that shot over any other player. I like Richardson however the if these players reach their respective potential the yearly fantasy points points become a push. So longevity becomes that much more important. If you are lucky to get an elite rb/wr you can expect 6 to 8 years from them if you are lucky and 8 to 12 with a qb.

But this also comes back to the needs of the team. If I have Aaron Rodgers or another great young qb then I am going for the best rb or wr available. If I have a qb outside the top 12 then I am taking a chance on great prospect. The thing is the depth of draft prospects is greater with wr's (1st) and rb's than with qb's. Qb's are usually a hit or a miss where rb's and wr's you have varying degrees of success. The bottom line though it still comes back to your team needs first in respect to the scoring system used.

 

[Pipes]

I think you can eliminate tier 3 and move that RB up into tier 2. I'd prefer that RB over the QBs and I think there are others who view QBs the same way.

It has been an interesting phenomenon watching perceived QB values rise recently. In 14+ team leagues QBs carry a premium, but not so much in 10-12 team leagues. Sure the league is more of a passing league, but a rising tide lifts all boats. There are still only a few QBs that are above all the rest, then there is a very deep 2nd tier. The chances that Luck and RGIII become elite is <50%, IMO, and even less likely inside of 3 years. Good QBs aren't that difficult to acquire. I just don't see why the rookie QBs are carrying the premium that they are.

Agreed.I think the thing that people aren't getting is that unless you play in a very large league or a 2 QB league the rookie QBs essentially HAVE to become the next Aaron Rodgers to be worth a pick that high. Not only that, but they have to do what the elite QBs did this year repeatedly, not just once.Everyone says that Luck is the next Peyton Manning. If Andrew Luck puts up Peyton Manning's typical yearly stats then he's a bust as a high rookie pick. Peyton was such a great FF commodity because he was throwing for 4000/28 when not many others were. Now everyone is doing it. If Luck throws for 4000/28 every year then he's a bust from an FF standpoint because in a 12 team one QB league, everyone has a starting QB that does that. Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Big Ben, etc all do that and you can acquire them for a song.For rookie QBs there is no room for error if you draft them high. They're either an elite top 2 player or they're a bust. If they're just "good" and not elite, they're a bust. Meanwhile, merely "good" running backs and WRs still hold plenty of value. Beanie Wells has been a very average running back but he's still a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes. Joe Flacco has been an above average QB but he has almost no value for fantasy purposes. If you draft Luck/RG3 in the top 3 of a standard format league then you're banking on them becoming the next Rodgers/Newton with nothing to fall back on, and that's quite the risk.

But are any of the RB's other than Richardson going to be clear #1's for their teams. The direction the NFL is heading with more and more teams either going RBBC or going to a more passing offense I don't see the point wasting an early pick on a RB that's going to put up 800 yards and a half dozen TDs. Those guys aren't too difficult to find. Guys like Michael Bush this year and BGE in 2010 helped win leagues. So many of the recent first round RBs...Mathews, Moreno, Best, Spiller, FJones have been busts. There have been some good hits too with McCoy, CJ2K and McFadden (if he can ever stay healthy). Most of the RB's other than Richardson have 2nd round grades. If you think one of those guys has a shot at being the guy on their team with a chance to put up 1000 yds and double digit TD's go ahead and take them. I'm just not seeing that from this class other than Richardson who is the clear #1 and in a tier by himself like most have mentioned. To me Luck and RGIII are special QB's and if they only turn into the next Matt Ryan and put up QB 8 - 12 numbers that will be a disappointment but not a bust. However if they put up Rodgers/Cam Newton numbers I'd be kicking myself for passing on them for a RB who I see as no better than a Mathews or Bennie Wells type. I guess we'll see how the draft shakes out but I don't see how you can put a list together without having Luck and RGIII in that 2nd tier. These are the two best QB prospects to come out in quite some time. Will they become the next Aaron Rodgers? Probably not but I think their numbers will end up being closer to his than that of Joe Flacco (who it's debatable that he's a average NFL QB).

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

You guys are actually making a case for Griffin as a top 3 pick. He brings the rushing yards and TDs along with the passing game. Would you spend the 1.03 pick on the next Mike Vick? I sure as heck would. My problem with these second tier RBs is that they are so hit or miss. What % of second or third round backs have panned out over the past 10 years? Remember guys like Chris Henry, Kenny Irons, Garrett Wolfe, Tony Hunt, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton and so on... For Every MJD, Forte, Rice, and Frank Gore, you get about 3-4 of these guys. Seems the smart play is to take an elite Rushing QB over a non-elite running back.

You picked the biggest busts at the RB position over the last 10 years. Did anyone pick those RB's in the top 5 of rookie drafts? Didn't think so

 

[FreeBaGeL]

To me Luck and RGIII are special QB's and if they only turn into the next Matt Ryan and put up QB 8 - 12 numbers that will be a disappointment but not a bust. However if they put up Rodgers/Cam Newton numbers I'd be kicking myself for passing on them for a RB who I see as no better than a Mathews or Bennie Wells type

This kind of illustrates the point I was making. You consider Matthews a disappointment as a running back yet he has pretty much the same fantasy value right now as Newton, who is probably the most valuable 2nd year QB we've ever seen in fantasy football.

 

[Touchdown There]

To me Luck and RGIII are special QB's and if they only turn into the next Matt Ryan and put up QB 8 - 12 numbers that will be a disappointment but not a bust. However if they put up Rodgers/Cam Newton numbers I'd be kicking myself for passing on them for a RB who I see as no better than a Mathews or Bennie Wells type

This kind of illustrates the point I was making. You consider Matthews a disappointment as a running back yet he has pretty much the same fantasy value right now as Newton, who is probably the most valuable 2nd year QB we've ever seen in fantasy football.

I think that Pipes tried to make a good point using a bad example. Ryan Mathews is currently being drafted late 1st/early 2nd in dynasty leagues and Cam seems to be going around #7 overall, so they are pretty close in value. Insert CJ Spiller for Mathews and you have a better example.It just hit me that some guys draft in order to retain trade value, while other guys draft to maximize points scored on their roster. QBs are viewed as having a lower trade value, although an elite QB gives you a better chance at winning your league. In the example above, Cam is going to score at least 50% more points than Ryan Mathews, so the choice seems clear. However, there are many guys that would rather have Ryan Mathews with Big Ben in the 7th round, rather than Cam in the 1st and Hillis in the 7th. It is just a matter of preference.

 

[Pipes]

To me Luck and RGIII are special QB's and if they only turn into the next Matt Ryan and put up QB 8 - 12 numbers that will be a disappointment but not a bust. However if they put up Rodgers/Cam Newton numbers I'd be kicking myself for passing on them for a RB who I see as no better than a Mathews or Bennie Wells type

This kind of illustrates the point I was making. You consider Matthews a disappointment as a running back yet he has pretty much the same fantasy value right now as Newton, who is probably the most valuable 2nd year QB we've ever seen in fantasy football.

I think that Pipes tried to make a good point using a bad example. Ryan Mathews is currently being drafted late 1st/early 2nd in dynasty leagues and Cam seems to be going around #7 overall, so they are pretty close in value. Insert CJ Spiller for Mathews and you have a better example.It just hit me that some guys draft in order to retain trade value, while other guys draft to maximize points scored on their roster. QBs are viewed as having a lower trade value, although an elite QB gives you a better chance at winning your league. In the example above, Cam is going to score at least 50% more points than Ryan Mathews, so the choice seems clear. However, there are many guys that would rather have Ryan Mathews with Big Ben in the 7th round, rather than Cam in the 1st and Hillis in the 7th. It is just a matter of preference.

No the Mathews example is fine. He was the #1 pick in rookie drafts just two years ago and is barely putting up RB2 numbers. He's been a major disapointment considering his draft pick. I can hit the waiver wire and pick up guys like BJGE and Michael Bush that can match or exceed his numbers. Mathews is a guy whose value far exceed his production to date.Now he's young and still has a chance to produce. My point is there is a ton of risk with drafting a RB now a days. And with most teams moving away from one RB's carrying the load I think there is a ton of risk taking RB's drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of the NFL draft over guys like Luck and RGIII.

 

[Pipes]

To me Luck and RGIII are special QB's and if they only turn into the next Matt Ryan and put up QB 8 - 12 numbers that will be a disappointment but not a bust. However if they put up Rodgers/Cam Newton numbers I'd be kicking myself for passing on them for a RB who I see as no better than a Mathews or Bennie Wells type

This kind of illustrates the point I was making. You consider Matthews a disappointment as a running back yet he has pretty much the same fantasy value right now as Newton, who is probably the most valuable 2nd year QB we've ever seen in fantasy football.

Mathews production hasn't come close to his perceived value. People are still chasing the fantasy football of the past where RB's dominated the game. Maybe it's the leagues I play in but in almost every league the past couple of years the champ has had a top notch QB and WR (maybe 2) and good but not necessarily great RB. With the NFL moving to a more and more passing league I just see that continuing.With that being said if you can find a McCoy, healthy ADP, Rice someone along those lines you lock them up and only trade them for a king's ranson. I think Richardson could approach those numbers. I just don't see any of the other RB's in this draft class having anywhere near that amount of upside.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

No the Mathews example is fine. He was the #1 pick in rookie drafts just two years ago and is barely putting up RB2 numbers. He's been a major disapointment considering his draft pick. I can hit the waiver wire and pick up guys like BJGE and Michael Bush that can match or exceed his numbers. Mathews is a guy whose value far exceed his production to date.

Now he's young and still has a chance to produce. My point is there is a ton of risk with drafting a RB now a days. And with most teams moving away from one RB's carrying the load I think there is a ton of risk taking RB's drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of the NFL draft over guys like Luck and RGIII.

Mathews finished as the 9th RB in non-PPR and the 8th in 0.5 PPR leagues. Hardly a disappointment and certainly not a major disappointment.

 

[duaneok66]

To me Luck and RGIII are special QB's and if they only turn into the next Matt Ryan and put up QB 8 - 12 numbers that will be a disappointment but not a bust. However if they put up Rodgers/Cam Newton numbers I'd be kicking myself for passing on them for a RB who I see as no better than a Mathews or Bennie Wells type

This kind of illustrates the point I was making. You consider Matthews a disappointment as a running back yet he has pretty much the same fantasy value right now as Newton, who is probably the most valuable 2nd year QB we've ever seen in fantasy football.

Mathews production hasn't come close to his perceived value. People are still chasing the fantasy football of the past where RB's dominated the game. Maybe it's the leagues I play in but in almost every league the past couple of years the champ has had a top notch QB and WR (maybe 2) and good but not necessarily great RB. With the NFL moving to a more and more passing league I just see that continuing.With that being said if you can find a McCoy, healthy ADP, Rice someone along those lines you lock them up and only trade them for a king's ranson. I think Richardson could approach those numbers. I just don't see any of the other RB's in this draft class having anywhere near that amount of upside.

ouststanding post - especially concerning the value of Mathews. Two years ago, no one had ever heard of Mike Tolbert.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This will change after the draft and I know no one will agree with any of it, but...in rough order of the likelihood they put up a lot of career VBD...

Richardson

Floyd

Luck

Griffin

Martin

-----------

Fleener

James

Turbin

Hill

Sleeper

Wilson

Blackmon

-----------

Osweiler

Givens

Miller

Pierce

Hillman

Bolden

Criner

Childs

Ballard

Foles

Meggett

IMO Fleener, Turbin, James, Sleeper and Bolden are great value based on where they're likely to be drafted.

 

[Touchdown There]

No the Mathews example is fine. He was the #1 pick in rookie drafts just two years ago and is barely putting up RB2 numbers. He's been a major disapointment considering his draft pick. I can hit the waiver wire and pick up guys like BJGE and Michael Bush that can match or exceed his numbers. Mathews is a guy whose value far exceed his production to date.

Now he's young and still has a chance to produce. My point is there is a ton of risk with drafting a RB now a days. And with most teams moving away from one RB's carrying the load I think there is a ton of risk taking RB's drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of the NFL draft over guys like Luck and RGIII.

Mathews finished as the 9th RB in non-PPR and the 8th in 0.5 PPR leagues. Hardly a disappointment and certainly not a major disappointment.

In a 1 PPR league I am in, filtering week 17 (no one plays fantasy is week 17), Mathews ended as the 7th best RB in 2011. 1091 yards, 50 receptions for 455 yards. It was his second year in the league.Are you sure on this one Pipes?

 

[sportsmonkey_j]

Mathews finished as the 7th RB in my league.

Bush finished 13th.

BJGE finished 29th.

Mathews value continues to rise. The other two are a push at best.

 

[Matt Bitonti]

im not really a fantasy football expert. OL is my thing. That being said... Temple's Bernard Pierce strikes me a a player who is going to have a special career. He just has great vision and a knack for accumulating yards. I don't think he's like a Chris Johnson type of breaker... more like a Curtis Martin 4 yards every time bell cow.

 

[Monty Burns]

This will change after the draft and I know no one will agree with any of it, but...in rough order of the likelihood they put up a lot of career VBD...RichardsonFloydLuckGriffinMartin-----------FleenerJamesTurbinHillSleeperWilsonBlackmon-----------OsweilerGivensMillerPierceHillmanBoldenCrinerChildsBallardFolesMeggettIMO Fleener, Turbin, James, Sleeper and Bolden are great value based on where they're likely to be drafted.

nice "thinking out side the box" list by wdcrob IMO....2 ommissions or don't you like Kendall Wright and Rueben Randall?

 

[Boone22]

This will change after the draft and I know no one will agree with any of it, but...in rough order of the likelihood they put up a lot of career VBD...RichardsonFloydLuckGriffinMartin-----------FleenerJamesTurbinHillSleeperWilsonBlackmon-----------OsweilerGivensMillerPierceHillmanBoldenCrinerChildsBallardFolesMeggettIMO Fleener, Turbin, James, Sleeper and Bolden are great value based on where they're likely to be drafted.

nice "thinking out side the box" list by wdcrob IMO....2 ommissions or don't you like Kendall Wright and Rueben Randall?

Looks like he's also not a fan of Polk despite some of the positive press he's been getting lately.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

nice "thinking out side the box" list by wdcrob IMO....2 ommissions or don't you like Kendall Wright and Rueben Randall?

Keep in mind that my list is who I think might be ++ VBD over their careers - I'm not listing guys whose upside is as a role player, average #2s or the like. The bottom of my list is players who may only have a 5-10% chance of hitting, but if they do they could be good. I'd rather have (or watch list) those guys than roster players I think have a low ceiling. I'm not playing market/trade value. So...I like Wright as a Lance Moore or Doug Baldwin type guy - a useful player, but not a legit #1 in small package like Steve Smith (CAR).

Randle is guy I honestly don't get. He just doesn't offer much at the NFL level IMO. At least not in terms of being a #1 WR. Again, he's not useless or anything. He's probably a better version of Bryant Johnson, or maybe a poor man's Braylon Edwards without much ability to stretch the field.

ETA: IMO Polk is just not good and will be really overdrafted.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Martin's the wildcard right now. I think the guy will rise to 1.02 after the draft. (I see him being drafted as the guy on a solid team and the guy has no weaknesses in his game where he has to be taken off the field)

I think right now he probably does sit at 1.05. Talent wise, think he's the Ray Rice/Matt Forte of this draft.

 

[duaneok66]

Martin's the wildcard right now. I think the guy will rise to 1.02 after the draft. (I see him being drafted as the guy on a solid team and the guy has no weaknesses in his game where he has to be taken off the field)I think right now he probably does sit at 1.05. Talent wise, think he's the Ray Rice/Matt Forte of this draft.

hard to find a team that will have a big enough hole in the backfield to give him a "workhorse" amount of carries.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Martin's the wildcard right now. I think the guy will rise to 1.02 after the draft. (I see him being drafted as the guy on a solid team and the guy has no weaknesses in his game where he has to be taken off the field)

I think right now he probably does sit at 1.05. Talent wise, think he's the Ray Rice/Matt Forte of this draft.

hard to find a team that will have a big enough hole in the backfield to give him a "workhorse" amount of carries.

Cincy / Packers / Browns / Bucs / DenverSchiano isn't married to Blount. And Starks is a limited, injury prone back. Martin is already a superior more fundamentally sound all-around back than either. Let's remember guys like Rice / Forte were drafted Rounds 2 or later. I unquestionably view Doug Martin as a similar talent.

I also think too many think 'workhorse' equates to having 300 carries. [i consider Reggie Bush a workhorse in 2011 -- within 210+ carries, 40+ receptions]. Martin will also be a big part of receiving game. Any of the aforementioned teams I could see Martin having 200+ carries as soon as 2012. [i think Denver is a sleeper for Martin with Manning wanting an outlet receiving back....something McGahee is not anymore)

 

[FatFast]

Martin's the wildcard right now. I think the guy will rise to 1.02 after the draft. (I see him being drafted as the guy on a solid team and the guy has no weaknesses in his game where he has to be taken off the field)I think right now he probably does sit at 1.05. Talent wise, think he's the Ray Rice/Matt Forte of this draft.

I'm right there with you Sudoku. Martin is the real deal and in my opinion will have a much longer career than Richardson. Richardson is a beast but he will take a ton of punishment with his up-right running style. If Martin lands in a favorable position I wouldn't hesitate to put him side-by-side with Richardson.

 

[SayWhat?]

Martin's the wildcard right now. I think the guy will rise to 1.02 after the draft. (I see him being drafted as the guy on a solid team and the guy has no weaknesses in his game where he has to be taken off the field)I think right now he probably does sit at 1.05. Talent wise, think he's the Ray Rice/Matt Forte of this draft.

I'm right there with you Sudoku. Martin is the real deal and in my opinion will have a much longer career than Richardson. Richardson is a beast but he will take a ton of punishment with his up-right running style. If Martin lands in a favorable position I wouldn't hesitate to put him side-by-side with Richardson.

In terms of duration of career, I believe Martin will be 24 while Richardson just 21. I don't see Martin having the longer career of the two.

 

[FatFast]

Off the top of my head:Richardson----------BlackmonMartinFloydLuckGriffin----------WrightMillerWilsonJamesHill----------FleenerJefferyWhere to take the QBs is a tricky question. Obviously Luck and Griffin are much better prospects than Doug Martin, but a good starting RB is usually worth more than a good starting QB in most FF leagues. I see Martin as a Forte/Rice type of back for FF purposes. I think he will have big short term value, even though Luck and Griffin are superior talents. Kendall Wright is the big loser of the offseason for me. He was moving up my board until the combine, but his poor showing there combined with his pitiful bench press numbers has me thinking he might be too lazy to maximize his natural talent. Stephen Hill is the big riser. I'm not entirely sold, but his potential is worth a shot in the 9-12 range. I also like the upside of LaMichael James there. The 12th spot could belong to any number of players, as I'm not very high on Jeffery. We'll see what happens with guys like Pierce, Turbin, Polk, Tannehill, and Randle in the draft. They are all contenders there.

Nice list EBF. If I put one out there, it would be very similiar to yours. I think Wilson is a pretty good back and I would slip him in at a low-end 2nd tier.

 

[beef]

I need to get more late 1sts early 2nds.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Too much focus on the first round. We need a thread on rookie tiers for the second round and beyond. That's where I need help at least. First round is a piece of cake, just don't over think it.

 

[Pipes]

No the Mathews example is fine. He was the #1 pick in rookie drafts just two years ago and is barely putting up RB2 numbers. He's been a major disapointment considering his draft pick. I can hit the waiver wire and pick up guys like BJGE and Michael Bush that can match or exceed his numbers. Mathews is a guy whose value far exceed his production to date.

Now he's young and still has a chance to produce. My point is there is a ton of risk with drafting a RB now a days. And with most teams moving away from one RB's carrying the load I think there is a ton of risk taking RB's drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of the NFL draft over guys like Luck and RGIII.

Mathews finished as the 9th RB in non-PPR and the 8th in 0.5 PPR leagues. Hardly a disappointment and certainly not a major disappointment.

In a 1 PPR league I am in, filtering week 17 (no one plays fantasy is week 17), Mathews ended as the 7th best RB in 2011. 1091 yards, 50 receptions for 455 yards. It was his second year in the league.Are you sure on this one Pipes?

Yeah I don't play PPR. With the scoring rules in the few leagues I'm in Mathews finished in the 15-20 range though the scoring in those leagues in heavily tilted towards TDs and not yardage. I still think Mathews has a shot to be great especially with Tolbert out of the way.So if we say Mathews was a bad example what about other recent 1st round RB's. Ingram was the #1 rookie draft pick last year. Best and Spiller were likely 2nd and 3rd in 2010, Moreno was a high draft pick in 2009. These are all recent examples of RB who haven't yet panned out.

Now if the top QB in the draft is a guy like Bradford or a Matt Ryan type I still take a shot with the RB every day. However I still think Luck and RGIII are both special talents who both have the chance to be special football players. With these two guys specifically I just can't justify taking any of the rookie RB's not named Richardson ahead of them. That's the point of my posts.

 

[RavenLunatic]

I think the appeal of Luck and RG3 is also that they seem safe bets to become a top 8-12 QB.

In that case, where you need a QB and want assurances, just trade your 1.02 or 1.03 for a Matt Ryan, Eli Manning or Tony Romo? Chance are their owner already has a comparible QB1 and is willing to move that extra QB for a RB.

Which becomes the point. Unless you start TWO QBs then there is little need to jump on one so soon.

Of course if you just love the player and want that marquee name on your roster vs a better fantasy value, take Luck or RG3. This is a personal game and only we know which decision will feel best for us.

Maybe just trade back to 1.05. You will still get one of Luck or Griffin, plus some for the move back. And if the worst happens and they are gone, it means you are still left with the best of Blackmon, Martin or Floyd (or a RB that lands in a great place like Pitt, NYJ/G or GB.

 

[duaneok66]

the problem with your analysis is that drafters are assuming RG3 or Luck will become elite if they select them with a high pick. No one is selecting RG3 with the statement "I hope he is a good as Romo".

 

[jurb26]

the problem with your analysis is that drafters are assuming RG3 or Luck will become elite if they select them with a high pick. No one is selecting RG3 with the statement "I hope he is a good as Romo".

People expect this out of ANY player they pick highly. Why are so many acting like this philosophy is only exclusive to Luck and RG3? A RB you draft in the top 3 busting or performing as only a marginal starter hurts your team just as much as a QB does. Actually, I'd probably rather have the marginal fantasy QB in dynasty. The reason being, a marginal fantasy starter at QB is more than likely still going to be a quality starter in the NFL for several years. A marginal starter at RB is likely only a marginal RB in the NFL and could easily find himself replaced or not starting in a short amount of time.

 

[Touchdown There]

the problem with your analysis is that drafters are assuming RG3 or Luck will become elite if they select them with a high pick. No one is selecting RG3 with the statement "I hope he is a good as Romo".

As good as Romo is RG3's floor. I do not think that RG3 is going to pull a Cam in 2012, but I do think he is going to get more rushing yards than people expect. With the bootlegs and outside plays the Redskins run, he is going to tuck the ball at least 10 times a game. Take a look at his rushing statistics from college. I think you will be surprised by the number of attempts:http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/378497/robert-griffin-iii

 

[eaglesfan7]

If that's the case then he'll be like Vick and miss a quarter of his games every season.

 

[jurb26]

the problem with your analysis is that drafters are assuming RG3 or Luck will become elite if they select them with a high pick. No one is selecting RG3 with the statement "I hope he is a good as Romo".

As good as Romo is RG3's floor. I do not think that RG3 is going to pull a Cam in 2012, but I do think he is going to get more rushing yards than people expect. With the bootlegs and outside plays the Redskins run, he is going to tuck the ball at least 10 times a game. Take a look at his rushing statistics from college. I think you will be surprised by the number of attempts:http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/378497/robert-griffin-iii

No offense, but there is no freaking way RG3 is getting 10 rushing attempts per game as a minimum. That would be 160, low end, for the season. Cam only had 126 last season.

 

[jurb26]

Richardson

Luck

RG3

----------

Blackmon

Miller

Martin

Wright

Floyd

----------

Wilson

James

Hill

Fleener

Jeffery

 

[Touchdown There]

the problem with your analysis is that drafters are assuming RG3 or Luck will become elite if they select them with a high pick. No one is selecting RG3 with the statement "I hope he is a good as Romo".

As good as Romo is RG3's floor. I do not think that RG3 is going to pull a Cam in 2012, but I do think he is going to get more rushing yards than people expect. With the bootlegs and outside plays the Redskins run, he is going to tuck the ball at least 10 times a game. Take a look at his rushing statistics from college. I think you will be surprised by the number of attempts:http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/378497/robert-griffin-iii

No offense, but there is no freaking way RG3 is getting 10 rushing attempts per game as a minimum. That would be 160, low end, for the season. Cam only had 126 last season.

The number may be high, but the point remains good. In terms of fantasy football, RG3 is going to be a great value at 1.04 or 1.05. Romo is not comparable.

 

[jurb26]

the problem with your analysis is that drafters are assuming RG3 or Luck will become elite if they select them with a high pick. No one is selecting RG3 with the statement "I hope he is a good as Romo".

As good as Romo is RG3's floor. I do not think that RG3 is going to pull a Cam in 2012, but I do think he is going to get more rushing yards than people expect. With the bootlegs and outside plays the Redskins run, he is going to tuck the ball at least 10 times a game. Take a look at his rushing statistics from college. I think you will be surprised by the number of attempts:http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/378497/robert-griffin-iii

No offense, but there is no freaking way RG3 is getting 10 rushing attempts per game as a minimum. That would be 160, low end, for the season. Cam only had 126 last season.

The number may be high, but the point remains good. In terms of fantasy football, RG3 is going to be a great value at 1.04 or 1.05. Romo is not comparable.

I agree with you're premise. RG3 should prove to be a better player than Romo IF he pans out the way we all expect. I'm a huge RG3 fan. I'd hope for about 90 rushing attempts on the season, which would be about 5.5 per game. Any more than that and it's stunting his development and putting him at risk for injury IMO. He is not the physical specimen that Cam is, only meaning he doesn't have the size or strength. I don't even think Cam can sustain the amount of rushing attempts he put up last year for very long before it adversely effects him. It's great for fantasy, while he is healthy. It's bad for prolonged sustainability though, or dynasty purposes. Cam had a magical season but he needs to improve as a passer still if he is going to maintain his elite status.

 

[az_prof]

Richardson---BlackmonRG3LuckMartinMiller---FloydWright(big drop off)If you're on the back end of round 1 and all of these guys are gone by your pick I'd recommend trying to trade your #1 and #3 for a future #1. But if you're sitting on the back end of round #1, to avoid this, I'd offer your #1 and future #1 to move up before the draft.

In my league no QB will be drafted until the second round. Qbs are not valued nearly as much as RBs and WRs.

 

[Pipes]

Richardson---BlackmonRG3LuckMartinMiller---FloydWright(big drop off)If you're on the back end of round 1 and all of these guys are gone by your pick I'd recommend trying to trade your #1 and #3 for a future #1. But if you're sitting on the back end of round #1, to avoid this, I'd offer your #1 and future #1 to move up before the draft.

In my league no QB will be drafted until the second round. Qbs are not valued nearly as much as RBs and WRs.

This is really what it boils down too. My main dynasty league is 16 teams with the scoring heavily titled towards QBs. You can win with average Rbs if you have a top notch Qb. RGIII and Luck will be gone within the first 5 picks.

 

[Tick]

.

 

[MAC_32]

Richardson---BlackmonRG3LuckMartinMiller---FloydWright(big drop off)If you're on the back end of round 1 and all of these guys are gone by your pick I'd recommend trying to trade your #1 and #3 for a future #1. But if you're sitting on the back end of round #1, to avoid this, I'd offer your #1 and future #1 to move up before the draft.

In my league no QB will be drafted until the second round. Qbs are not valued nearly as much as RBs and WRs.

Then adjust accordingly. If you can get one of them with the 8th or 9th pick and you need a QB then position yourself so you're picking 8th or 9th-ish. Even if you don't need a QB. That's tremendous value imho.

 

[joey]

 

[Tick]

Looking at 25 ranking sites, it looks like this by position:

Richardson

Wilson/Miller/Martin

Polk/James/Pead/Pierce

Blackmon/Floyd/Wright (they're so clearly 1-2-3 that they're almost three different tiers)

Jeffrey/Sanu/Randle

Luck/Griffin

Tannehill

Mix and match as you like for your draft style, league scoring systems, and opposing owners' tendencies.

This list is 17, but it seems pretty clear that dropping the second WR and QB tiers off the list makes sense, so 13 to consider for a 10- or 12-team league.

 

[clwn_posse]

Looking at 25 ranking sites, it looks like this by position:

bah...while looking at 25 ranking sites can be useful for figuring out who your league mates are going to draft, I'd rather hear who YOUR picks are.My current tiers:Tier 1 - LuckLove the accuracy and groomingTier 2 - Richardson, RG3 We've been waiting for Richardson for 2 years now. RG3 seems like the Deangelo Williams of QBs.Tier 3 - Blackmon, Martin, FloydAll 3 seem to have translatable skillsets and superior measurables.Tier 4 - Miller, Hill, Fleener, JamesSuperior measurables guys who are just below Tier 3. Hill doesn't have the production but as others have said his upside may be worth the risk in this tier.Tier 5 - Wilson, Wright, JefferyGood measurables and production but these guys seem riskier to me. Wilson, not sure on his instincts. Wright, little guy whose game is like a bigger player, can he hold up? Jeffery, is he going to be able to separate?Tier 6 - Randle, Pierce, Pead, Tannehill, AJ JenkinsThis tier seems stronger to me than years past. We'll see if their draft spots merit this rankTier 7 - Polk, Turbin, Weeden, Sanu, Hillman, Marvin Jones, Cousins

 

[Max Power]

Filtering through Bloom's top 100 article/thread. His rough tiers are...



Tier 1

1-7/8

Tier 2

7/8-15

Tier 3

15-23ish

 

[Zimm]

Here is how i rank the rookies (PPR)

Tier 1 (Big drop)

1.1 - T.Richardson - Alabama

Tier 2 (Bigger drop)

1.2 - A.Luck - Stanford

Tier 3

1.3 - M.Floyd - Notre Dame

1.4 - D.Martin - Boise St.

1.5 - J.Blackmon - Oklahoma St.

1.6 - D.Wilson - Virgina Tech

1.7 - R.Griffin - Baylor

Tier 4

1.8 - L.Miller - Miami

1.9 - S.Hill - Georgia Tech

1.10 - A.Jeffery - South Carolina

1.11 - K.Wright - Baylor

Tier 5

1.12a - L.James - Oregon

1.12b - C.Fleener - Stanford