Well in that case Really looking forward to itHere's the titles of the 8 sections, as a preview:Section 1 – Auction Leagues for BeginnersSection 2 – Preparing for Auction Day Section 3 – Knowing Your LeagueSection 4 – Auction DaySection 5 – Strategies for Building an Auction TeamSection 6 – Strategies for Operating an Auction TeamSection 7 – Nomination StrategiesSection 8 – Auction League TypesLooking forward to it.No, but you can keep contributing to it.I've just finished a draft of the FBG Auction Guide - something that has never been written, to my surprise.Hopefully I've covered enough of this topic to at least address most of the concerns in this thread so far.I'd expect it to debut next week.Can we get this topic pinned please....
I might write something for more detail, but in general you just figure out the total $ pool and plan accordingly.For example - 12 teams, $50 is $600 total for 48 players (assuming 4 each for the teams). I'd go hard after 3 guys and take the 4th for cheap (as you'll still get a Top 48 player).I'd be happy with $25, $17, and $6 players then a $2 4th.Can you buy more than 4 players?Any advice on hybrid leagues? We do an auction for four rounds and then draft the remaining rounds (a full auction takes too long for the league to switch completely).
No, just 4. I've been having trouble with using the Dominator because the values are out of whack with just 4 rounds.'Jeff Pasquino said:I might write something for more detail, but in general you just figure out the total $ pool and plan accordingly.For example - 12 teams, $50 is $600 total for 48 players (assuming 4 each for the teams). I'd go hard after 3 guys and take the 4th for cheap (as you'll still get a Top 48 player).I'd be happy with $25, $17, and $6 players then a $2 4th.Can you buy more than 4 players?'goldfinger said:Any advice on hybrid leagues? We do an auction for four rounds and then draft the remaining rounds (a full auction takes too long for the league to switch completely).
There's a methodology you can use to figuring out the values regardless of how you draw the line. I gave the general concept in one of the segments I just wrote that should apply.In this instance:Add up all the $ everyone has. If all have $100, 12 owners, you get $1200.Determine how many players will be purchased (48).Subtract # of players from the total $. In this case, $1200 - 48 = $1152.Now figure out which players will go in the Top 48. That's the tricky part, but the DD should give you a good idea plus history of your league. I'll say 8-10QBs, 14-18 RBs, 14-18 WRs, and 6-8 TEs (a range of 42 to 54 players, averages out to 48). Pick the player in the middle of each range as a baseline (QB9, RB16, WR16, TE7). Take a good look at the projected fantasy points for your baseline players.Now add up all the fantasy points for the players ABOVE your baseline players. (i.e. if Rodgers is above your QB9 and QB9 = 300 pts while Rodgers = 400, Rodgers is worth 100 points).Total up all these "extra" fantasy points for ALL positions. For simplicity I will say it is 2304 points for these 44 players.Now divide the total points by the extra dollars. That means 2304 points / $1152 = 2 points per dollar.Now you know what those extra points are worth. Rodgers in the above example is worth $51 (100 extra points = $50 plus the $1 baseline).Hope that helps.No, just 4. I've been having trouble with using the Dominator because the values are out of whack with just 4 rounds.'Jeff Pasquino said:I might write something for more detail, but in general you just figure out the total $ pool and plan accordingly.For example - 12 teams, $50 is $600 total for 48 players (assuming 4 each for the teams). I'd go hard after 3 guys and take the 4th for cheap (as you'll still get a Top 48 player).I'd be happy with $25, $17, and $6 players then a $2 4th.Can you buy more than 4 players?'goldfinger said:Any advice on hybrid leagues? We do an auction for four rounds and then draft the remaining rounds (a full auction takes too long for the league to switch completely).
Many folks have been requesting changes with the DD for years now, which have all fallen on deaf ears. Essentially, they simply trot out the same product, just with different projections. It's kind of sad, considering how it's touted as one of their flagship products. But hope springs eternal, right?As an aside, be cautious when using a methodology similar to what Jeff suggested as it will essentially indicate that any player below your baseline is worth only $1. If you're counting on getting any of those borderline players, however, you may be disappointed. They may only be "worth" $1 to you in terms of points, but with everyone having different projections, others may feel those players are worth more and they may not be available to you for only $1. That doesn't mean you should necessarily overspend, but if you're counting on getting a $1 QB because you think the other owners will overpay for them, you need to be prepared for getting a lower-tier QB than you were expecting. (Short version: "Backup" players may be "worth" only $1 in terms of VBD, but expect many of them to go for more.)[*]I would like to see more flexibility in the DD;
Good response on the methodology.Many folks have been requesting changes with the DD for years now, which have all fallen on deaf ears. Essentially, they simply trot out the same product, just with different projections. It's kind of sad, considering how it's touted as one of their flagship products. But hope springs eternal, right?As an aside, be cautious when using a methodology similar to what Jeff suggested as it will essentially indicate that any player below your baseline is worth only $1. If you're counting on getting any of those borderline players, however, you may be disappointed. They may only be "worth" $1 to you in terms of points, but with everyone having different projections, others may feel those players are worth more and they may not be available to you for only $1. That doesn't mean you should necessarily overspend, but if you're counting on getting a $1 QB because you think the other owners will overpay for them, you need to be prepared for getting a lower-tier QB than you were expecting. (Short version: "Backup" players may be "worth" only $1 in terms of VBD, but expect many of them to go for more.)[*]I would like to see more flexibility in the DD;
(Edit: The above was for any type of league, btw, not just the 4-round auction he was replying to. If you have historical data from previous years of the league, you can use those numbers to see what the "entry cost" for any particular type of player may be. For example, the cheapest "starting" QB from one of my leagues last year was $10 (2 QB league). I can then assume that the minimum amount of money I will have to pay for a top-12 QB will be $10, and can budget accordingly. Yes, this means you will have to overpay slightly for some positions if the entire league overvalues them, but if you compare that historical data to the "value" they represent using Jeff's methodology, you can see where the values in the auction will lie).
Agreed. Choosing the baseline starting point is the difficult part. Using the last starter winds up undervaluing the prices for quality backups. Using the first backup (e.g. RB36 in a 2RB, 12-team league) often places too much emphasis on backups and can skew the values of the starters too much (for a 2QB league especially, since QB36 might only be projected to play 2-3 games). One of the methods I've tried in the past is to essentially create two auction values: Use the last starter as a baseline, using 85% of the total budget (and using the "minimum entry price" from historical data). And then a second for the top backup position using the remaining 15%, and assuming everyone beyond that number is only worth $1. It's not a perfect solution, and can create some wierd bumps, but it seems to create reasonable numbers.Good response on the methodology. However, at some point - players won't be more than $1-2. That always happens in auctions. Gauging when you think it will happen is part of the process.
Thank you. I don't like complaining about it, but I've seen requests for split positions (CB/S, DE/DT) and for more flex options (QB/RB/WR) dating back 5 years. It's such a wonderful tool (even if my leagues won't let me use it during the auction itself), that I hate to see it fall behind.As far as the DD comments, I'll feed them back to Dodds.
This is a good list.Also would like to see information on different ways to come up with auction prices.Auction is by far my favorite draft day. As far as the beginners guide to an auction that stuff pops up every year in magazines and online but it usually the same information. 1. I want to read about strategies involving risk of spending all your money/points on starters, maybe talk about the risk and ways to keep this risk to a minimum. List some combinations with some solid consistent players to sprinkle in. 2. I would like to hear strategies on ppr leagues. Usually wr goes less than rb interested in strategies for these ppr drafts3. Perfect auction draft articles, upside down auction strategies4. Definitely want to read information based on 200 dollar/point systems5. Also just list some of the home run type players to save a few bucks for later in the draft
Following economic theory, I think a player's value should be based on how expensive it would be to replace his production at the minimum bid price. To make that work, the baseline should be the production you will get from the best replacement player, which is the best player on the wire. But I'm in a QB + QB/K/D flex league and agree that it causes QBs to have really high values. But I think this is economically rationale and you should follow the values and get two stud QBs. Most leagues that allow you to start 2 QBs don't fairly value QBs and your best strategy is to get 2 good ones.If you still don't like the values, set two baselines: one for determining starter prices and the other for determining bench player prices. Decide what percent to allocate to starters and how much to bench players. Say 80/20. If so, allocate 80% of the league's money to the VBD values for starters. Then allocate the other 20% to the bench players. You'll get values that are more in line with what you "think" is right.But I still think that you should trust a good formula that says QB18 is worth more than RB12 in start 2 QB league. The question is whether you have a good formula. I'm not so sure that the FBG default formula is right. Something doesn't feel right when Dodds has one VBD system for drafts and Tremblay/Draft Dominator has another for auctions. I hope I can devise something that's better.My biggest problem when trying to determine actual value (as opposed to what I can expect to pay) is figuring out what to use as my baseline. If I take lowest starter, than QB's are vastly undervalued compared to what I can expect to pay and from an anecdotal standpoint (admittedly of 10 years worth of playing), we might even be undervaluing them (it's a QB+Superflex league). However, if I use the average backup as my baseline, you're talking about the 28th-30th QB, in which case QB's are worth more than half your salary, which also seems like a recipe for failure. I usually go for something like last starter + 0-4 (using 4 for QB's, 2 for other skill positions, and 0 for DST/K), which at least jives somewhat with our historical draft values, but doesn't necessarily tell me how valuable the position truly is.
MFL.com does this also.The thing I like about Y! live drafts is the easy access to features that tell you max $ each team can spend on a single player, avg $/ player left etc right above each team name
The problem with "best replacement" is that, while that may only be the 13th or 14th TE (Winslow or Daniels last year), you're talking the 60th WR, 75th RB or 45th QB based on the historical numbers drafted by my league (and that's over 10 years of data, now). While the 60th WR is likely a starting WR (Collie or Jacoby Jones), the 75th RB is a situational/relief player that only gets a few touches a game (Snelling or Hardesty) and the 45th QB may be riding the pine the majority of the year (Yates or Flynn). That's not to say these numbers aren't useful (I actually think it's a great way to value the "worth" of drafting backups at each position), but it would tend to vastly undervalue TE's simply because the replacement player is of such a better quality (in this example, the VBD of Gronk would be approximately the same as Palmer, Gabbert or Ponder, which is nuts).Following economic theory, I think a player's value should be based on how expensive it would be to replace his production at the minimum bid price. To make that work, the baseline should be the production you will get from the best replacement player, which is the best player on the wire.
I do something similar to this most years. I'll set the baseline for determining starter prices at the average backup (so ~30th QB/RB/WR, etc.) and then I'll use the remaining money to determine the value of the backups. It's not perfect since the drop-off between 30 and 31 is pretty huge, but it gives me a rough idea of their relative values. (I also use our historical data to see what the minimum "entrance fee" for purchasing a starter will be and use that as my baseline price for each position, so that takes some account for league preferences).If you still don't like the values, set two baselines: one for determining starter prices and the other for determining bench player prices. Decide what percent to allocate to starters and how much to bench players. Say 80/20. If so, allocate 80% of the league's money to the VBD values for starters. Then allocate the other 20% to the bench players. You'll get values that are more in line with what you "think" is right.
I'm sure it's , hence it will go forA bit of Good News, Bad News here...Good News - The Auction Guide is written, and Dodds loved it and thinks I crushed it.Bad News - He is holding off on releasing it a bit (because it is so good ).It'll be out in June based on what I am hearing, so I wanted you to all know that it will be released and is done.
I've always found the roundtables to be one of the best features on this site. A Shark Pool roundtable would also be helpful (especially if there aren't a lot of staffers who auction), or you could go with something along the lines of the player spotlights (i.e. post a topic and let people post their opinions).Glad to see things moving forward, it always seemed strange that so few of the site's resources were put towards auctions (although I can understand since there are fewer "money" leagues that use auctions).This is a great discussion.I'm thinking that I might do a staff roundtable.... AND possibly a Shark Pool roundtable to discuss these sorts of topics.Let me mull that over, but you can let me know if you want to participate.
Just following up on this idea. Out of curiosity, I took the points scored at each position last year, and then paired them up in order of descending salaries using our last year's auction (most expensive QB salary with the top QB points, 2nd most points with 2nd highest QB salary, etc.). I then used Excel's solver to determine the best possible combination of points. The results were surprising.Rather than suggesting two top-tier QB's, it suggested the best use of salary was to pick up QB5 and QB18, slough RB (24 and 30), grab the #1 and #2 WR, #1 TE ... and then the #1 DST and K, too, even though both cost more than $1! I'm not terribly surprised that the WR's and TE's were valuable since our league tends to underpay for them (we only start 2, so there's a fair amount of talent still available on waivers, plus there seems to be a top-10 player undrafted every year), but I was very surprised about the DST and K recommendations. Of course, the biggest problem is that it's very difficult to predict who those top players/teams will be any given year, which is why I think the "stick to $1 bids" is the generally accepted strategy.But I'm in a QB + QB/K/D flex league and agree that it causes QBs to have really high values. But I think this is economically rationale and you should follow the values and get two stud QBs. Most leagues that allow you to start 2 QBs don't fairly value QBs and your best strategy is to get 2 good ones.
I think this only works with the benefit of hindsight. I've looked at the average FPTs for each position for the past 10 years and I found that the scoring for the lower ranked players (TE12, RB24, WR36, etc.) is fairly consistent (low standard deviation). But the standard deviation for the top players at each position is relatively large. So if you based your auction values based on the average production of the #1 QB, you have chance of significantly outperforming and getting good value. I think that happened last year because Calvin and Gronk signficantly outperformed the historical average for WR1 and TE1. And the top 5 QBs were beyond average performance and closely bunched, which is why QB5 was a good value. Akers also had an amazing year in most systems. Not sure about defense.I think the test would be more interesting if you ran it against an average (or weighted average) for each position ranking over the past 5-10 years. That would eliminate outliers like Gronk and Calvin (and Moss, Brady, Manning, Culpepper, LT, Priest, etc. in past years).BTW, great idea to use solver to set a budget.'SelenaCat said:Just following up on this idea. Out of curiosity, I took the points scored at each position last year, and then paired them up in order of descending salaries using our last year's auction (most expensive QB salary with the top QB points, 2nd most points with 2nd highest QB salary, etc.). I then used Excel's solver to determine the best possible combination of points. The results were surprising.Rather than suggesting two top-tier QB's, it suggested the best use of salary was to pick up QB5 and QB18, slough RB (24 and 30), grab the #1 and #2 WR, #1 TE ... and then the #1 DST and K, too, even though both cost more than $1! I'm not terribly surprised that the WR's and TE's were valuable since our league tends to underpay for them (we only start 2, so there's a fair amount of talent still available on waivers, plus there seems to be a top-10 player undrafted every year), but I was very surprised about the DST and K recommendations. Of course, the biggest problem is that it's very difficult to predict who those top players/teams will be any given year, which is why I think the "stick to $1 bids" is the generally accepted strategy.But I'm in a QB + QB/K/D flex league and agree that it causes QBs to have really high values. But I think this is economically rationale and you should follow the values and get two stud QBs. Most leagues that allow you to start 2 QBs don't fairly value QBs and your best strategy is to get 2 good ones.
As much as I am looking forward to this article and can't wait, I would just as soon wait for it to be released as subscriber only content.A bit of Good News, Bad News here...Good News - The Auction Guide is written, and Dodds loved it and thinks I crushed it.Bad News - He is holding off on releasing it a bit (because it is so good ).It'll be out in June based on what I am hearing, so I wanted you to all know that it will be released and is done.
This is already in the works... not quite to the extent of what you're saying, but the staff will try and do a mock auction for release in June.If we can't get 12 staffers we may enlist a few from the Shark Pool...Jeff,What about a Shark Pool or Staff mock auction? Then each participant writes about their strategy and posts their values for EVERY player - hopefully everyone has a value for each player. Then readers can compare values going into the auction with final values. And see what strategy may or may not have worked.Kind of like of seeing every NFL team's draft board after the draft. Then we'd really know if Bruce Irvin was a reach or not!gheemony
I'm sure it's , hence it will go forA bit of Good News, Bad News here...Good News - The Auction Guide is written, and Dodds loved it and thinks I crushed it.Bad News - He is holding off on releasing it a bit (because it is so good ).It'll be out in June based on what I am hearing, so I wanted you to all know that it will be released and is done.
Good answers... I just wanted to keep you guys up to date so that you knew this didn't fall off the to-do list.As much as I am looking forward to this article and can't wait, I would just as soon wait for it to be released as subscriber only content.A bit of Good News, Bad News here...Good News - The Auction Guide is written, and Dodds loved it and thinks I crushed it.Bad News - He is holding off on releasing it a bit (because it is so good ).It'll be out in June based on what I am hearing, so I wanted you to all know that it will be released and is done.
This is already in the works... not quite to the extent of what you're saying, but the staff will try and do a mock auction for release in June.If we can't get 12 staffers we may enlist a few from the Shark Pool...Jeff,
What about a Shark Pool or Staff mock auction? Then each participant writes about their strategy and posts their values for EVERY player - hopefully everyone has a value for each player. Then readers can compare values going into the auction with final values. And see what strategy may or may not have worked.
Kind of like of seeing every NFL team's draft board after the draft. Then we'd really know if Bruce Irvin was a reach or not!
gheemony
As much as I am looking forward to this article and can't wait, I would just as soon wait for it to be released as subscriber only content.A bit of Good News, Bad News here...Good News - The Auction Guide is written, and Dodds loved it and thinks I crushed it.Bad News - He is holding off on releasing it a bit (because it is so good ).It'll be out in June based on what I am hearing, so I wanted you to all know that it will be released and is done.
Oh, I agree that it's only a good "in hindsight" tool, but I was very much surprised to see how having the top K and D could prove such a benefit. I ran the numbers averaging the last 3 years (I didn't want to to go too much further than that since I didn't want to dilute out the way the game has changed to such a pass-happy league). The major change was suggesting I take the QB17 and QB18, WR1 and WR15, and RB1 and RB30. The major reason for this change is that the top-scoring RB last year was not that much further ahead of the pack, whereas in the previous two years, the RB1 outscored the RB2 by a fairly significant margin. So if you were able to pick that player, your QB's were much less important (as the difference between QB12-20 is relatively minimal most years).So yes, if you can accurately predict the top RB, top WR, top TE, top K, and top D, you have a winning team. But that's kind of a tall order when less than half of our predictions come anywhere close to the way the season ends. I may try to run another analysis averaging past three years, but I'm concerned that I might end up over-emphasising RB's ths way since QB and WR scoring has dramatically increased over the past several years.'gheemony said:I think this only works with the benefit of hindsight. I've looked at the average FPTs for each position for the past 10 years and I found that the scoring for the lower ranked players (TE12, RB24, WR36, etc.) is fairly consistent (low standard deviation). But the standard deviation for the top players at each position is relatively large. So if you based your auction values based on the average production of the #1 QB, you have chance of significantly outperforming and getting good value. I think that happened last year because Calvin and Gronk signficantly outperformed the historical average for WR1 and TE1. And the top 5 QBs were beyond average performance and closely bunched, which is why QB5 was a good value. Akers also had an amazing year in most systems. Not sure about defense.I think the test would be more interesting if you ran it against an average (or weighted average) for each position ranking over the past 5-10 years. That would eliminate outliers like Gronk and Calvin (and Moss, Brady, Manning, Culpepper, LT, Priest, etc. in past years).BTW, great idea to use solver to set a budget.'SelenaCat said:Just following up on this idea. Out of curiosity, I took the points scored at each position last year, and then paired them up in order of descending salaries using our last year's auction (most expensive QB salary with the top QB points, 2nd most points with 2nd highest QB salary, etc.). I then used Excel's solver to determine the best possible combination of points. The results were surprising.Rather than suggesting two top-tier QB's, it suggested the best use of salary was to pick up QB5 and QB18, slough RB (24 and 30), grab the #1 and #2 WR, #1 TE ... and then the #1 DST and K, too, even though both cost more than $1! I'm not terribly surprised that the WR's and TE's were valuable since our league tends to underpay for them (we only start 2, so there's a fair amount of talent still available on waivers, plus there seems to be a top-10 player undrafted every year), but I was very surprised about the DST and K recommendations. Of course, the biggest problem is that it's very difficult to predict who those top players/teams will be any given year, which is why I think the "stick to $1 bids" is the generally accepted strategy.But I'm in a QB + QB/K/D flex league and agree that it causes QBs to have really high values. But I think this is economically rationale and you should follow the values and get two stud QBs. Most leagues that allow you to start 2 QBs don't fairly value QBs and your best strategy is to get 2 good ones.
That might be the biggest "lesson learned" from 2011, regardless of league.I may try to run another analysis averaging past three years, but I'm concerned that I might end up over-emphasising RB's ths way since QB and WR scoring has dramatically increased over the past several years.
Video of the event plus a narrative will help people learn way more than a narrative alone. Can we possibly watch it live via Skype (can Skype handle large video conference calls?) and record it for download if we're unable to watch live?'roadkill1292 said:Running a staff auction and watching you guys give each other the evil eye as the bids reach critical point would be fun to do.
FootballguysTV!!!!'roadkill1292 said:Running a staff auction and watching you guys give each other the evil eye as the bids reach critical point would be fun to do.