***STONE COLD LOCK OF THE YEAR***
I haven't done a Stone Cold Lock of the Year for all season, so now is the time. Bet the proverbial house on this prop:
Odds to win 2011 Super Bowl XLV MVP
• Tom Brady (NE) 7/5
• Eli Manning (NYG) 9/4
Most of the MVP odds are long, but understand that 8 of the last 13 MVPs were quarterbacks including 4 of the last 5. That's 80% of the time, folks. Here's why this one is about as big of a lock as there is on the Prop Board.
1.Las Vegas loves the offense in this contest. The Over/Under is hovering right around 55 points, which means they expect a 30-27 or 27-24 type shootout of a contest.
2.The game is in a dome, which will favor the offense.
3.Both teams are putting up big offensive numbers all year, including the postseason.
4.Neither team has a true feature running back, and they both favor leading their offense with the passing game.
5.The two biggest names coming into Super Bowl week are both quarterbacks, Brady and Manning.
6.Even if a wide receiver (or tight end) blows up and scores 2-3 touchdowns, that also means that the quarterback had a big day as well. Just because Brandon Marshall had four touchdowns in the Pro Bowl doesn't mean a top receiver automatically gets that type of award in a normal game. Marshall played the whole game while he caught passes from three different quarterbacks. If Victor Cruz or Rob Gronkowski scores three touchdowns, Eli or Brady will each have three TD passes as well.
7.There is little chance of a defensive player to win the award. The game will favor the offense, and sports writers (who pick the MVP) are lazy. "Brady" or "Manning" is much easier to spell than "Umenyiora", trust me here.
Bottom Line
Take both quarterbacks with just a little extra on Tom Brady so that you net out a positive return (+EV). For example, 3 "stars" on Eli Manning and 4 on Tom Brady would net you a return over 37% on your investment as long as one of the quarterbacks brings home the award.
Take this money and run.
