GregR
Footballguy
Hearing that Arian Foster is on pace for 416 421 carries got me to dig into his numbers a little. This is pretty much just a dump of my thoughts on his situation so far. Nothing that should be earth shattering to anyone.
We're only 3 games in and so it's a small sample to project to a full season. Foster's had a pretty consistent number of carries each game. 26, 28, and 25 carries in the 3 games.
But, the Texans aren't getting the 2nd half rushing yards they have in the past. The Texans scheme involves a lot of sideline to sideline movement on stretch plays, and defensive fronts can often get wore down which opens things up late in the game. The last two years Foster averaged 4.61 ypc with 8 TDs in the 1st half and 4.78 ypc with 18 TDs in the 2nd half.
So far this year his first half ypc is 5.03, with 3 TDs, while his 2nd half ypc is 2.73 with 0 rushing TDs. So he's actually done better in the first half so far, but a big drop off in the 2nd.
A couple of possible factors. One is the strength of the run defenses faced so far. Miami and Jacksonville were #3 and #4 in ypc last year, Denver was 11th. So far this year they rank 2nd, 4th and 24th against the run.
Another is Houston has led all three games this year by pretty big margins, leading to more series with obvious trying to run down the clock, and defenses moving extra defenders up into the box.
Final thing has been the changes along the right side of the Houston line. Winston and Brisiel gone. Texans have been platooning Antoine Caldwell and Ben Jones (rookie center from Georgia) at right guard, and have mostly just gone with Derek Newton at right tackle. The first game against Miami I didn't think there was nearly as much room to run... Dolphins got a lot of penetration which causes problems for any scheme, but especially messes up cut back ability in a zone scheme. The last two games were better for Houston. I don't know that I'd say the right side of the line has been a major weakness though. Not as good as last year so far, but still good enough for the RBs to be productive when the game is still being contested.
Going forward I could see the Texans wanting to lessen his workload some. One consideration though... Tate had a game changing fumble against the Broncos as Houston was moving the ball and burning clock heading towards what would have been a put away score. Instead Denver got the ball and a quick TD and enough time for Peyton to make a run for it.
Some people in here have been over the top about worries of Foster losing the job over fumbling. Tate actually has a lot higher fumble rate than Foster does, and I've pretty much preached moderation on worries about the topic. I would caution viewing the reaction to Tate's fumble with moderation as well. I think we may see an increased work load for Tate and Forsett if Foster's work load keeps up like this. So far Foster has a little over a 3:1 margin, 79 to 25 carries compared to Tate. Tate didn't get back in the game after fumbling against Denver, but I'm pretty sure they'll work him back in for the long haul.
With a number of games coming up that I don't think the Texans will go up so early in, I could see fewer stacked fronts in the 2nd half, so might see that 2nd half ypc come up.
(Edit: Should have known better than to trust media, corrected the 416 number I saw to the correct 421.)
We're only 3 games in and so it's a small sample to project to a full season. Foster's had a pretty consistent number of carries each game. 26, 28, and 25 carries in the 3 games.
But, the Texans aren't getting the 2nd half rushing yards they have in the past. The Texans scheme involves a lot of sideline to sideline movement on stretch plays, and defensive fronts can often get wore down which opens things up late in the game. The last two years Foster averaged 4.61 ypc with 8 TDs in the 1st half and 4.78 ypc with 18 TDs in the 2nd half.
So far this year his first half ypc is 5.03, with 3 TDs, while his 2nd half ypc is 2.73 with 0 rushing TDs. So he's actually done better in the first half so far, but a big drop off in the 2nd.
A couple of possible factors. One is the strength of the run defenses faced so far. Miami and Jacksonville were #3 and #4 in ypc last year, Denver was 11th. So far this year they rank 2nd, 4th and 24th against the run.
Another is Houston has led all three games this year by pretty big margins, leading to more series with obvious trying to run down the clock, and defenses moving extra defenders up into the box.
Final thing has been the changes along the right side of the Houston line. Winston and Brisiel gone. Texans have been platooning Antoine Caldwell and Ben Jones (rookie center from Georgia) at right guard, and have mostly just gone with Derek Newton at right tackle. The first game against Miami I didn't think there was nearly as much room to run... Dolphins got a lot of penetration which causes problems for any scheme, but especially messes up cut back ability in a zone scheme. The last two games were better for Houston. I don't know that I'd say the right side of the line has been a major weakness though. Not as good as last year so far, but still good enough for the RBs to be productive when the game is still being contested.
Going forward I could see the Texans wanting to lessen his workload some. One consideration though... Tate had a game changing fumble against the Broncos as Houston was moving the ball and burning clock heading towards what would have been a put away score. Instead Denver got the ball and a quick TD and enough time for Peyton to make a run for it.
Some people in here have been over the top about worries of Foster losing the job over fumbling. Tate actually has a lot higher fumble rate than Foster does, and I've pretty much preached moderation on worries about the topic. I would caution viewing the reaction to Tate's fumble with moderation as well. I think we may see an increased work load for Tate and Forsett if Foster's work load keeps up like this. So far Foster has a little over a 3:1 margin, 79 to 25 carries compared to Tate. Tate didn't get back in the game after fumbling against Denver, but I'm pretty sure they'll work him back in for the long haul.
With a number of games coming up that I don't think the Texans will go up so early in, I could see fewer stacked fronts in the 2nd half, so might see that 2nd half ypc come up.
(Edit: Should have known better than to trust media, corrected the 416 number I saw to the correct 421.)
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Anything I was gonna add on the topic was added and then multiplied by at least 5.
