FROM 2006: Heath Miller (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Heath Miller Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Miller is intriguing and a probable top-10 TE this season. I got flamed a little bit last year for projecting 500+ yards and 5-6 TDs, but Miller finished the year right in that neighborhood. Now that we've established that the Steelers WILL throw to the tight end if they have a guy with the ability to stretch the field, a look at Miller's surroundings this year are promising. Gone is goal-line hammer Jerome Bettis, which could mean more looks in the end zone on play action roll-outs, a play the Steelers love to run. That should keep his TD level where it was last year, if not a slight increase. Miller also received 52 targets last year, a number which is bound to increase. Not only is Antwaan Randle-El gone, replaced by an unproven rookie, but Miller demonstrated his ability to come up with the big catch and gain yardage after the grab in last year's playoffs. Teams keyed on the Steelers run game and dropped their coverage deep to avoid the big play and Miller took advantage of the gaps in the middle of the defense to make some big plays. Don't think the Steelers have forgotten that. I see 60-70 targets as a distinct possibility, and with a 75% catch rate per target last year, that should convert into about 50 catches. Let's call it :

52 catches 613 yards 7 TD.

Numbers like that could even make Miller a possible top 5 TE. I think he represents huge value after the Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, and Heaps of the world are off the board.

 

[Bankerguy]

I like this kid. So does Coach Chin.

I see no reason to not expect increased balls and opportunities for Miller. He is another reason why you should wait on your TE this year.

45

600

6 TD

 

[Musesboy]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team has noticed a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

 

[Cool in the pocket]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

 

[diesel7982]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions  675 yards  9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

Over the last 6 years, Hines Ward has scored 4TDs in 3 seasons, and 10+ TDs in 3 seasons. Why are you sure he'll get the 10 and not the 4?

 

[lawyer]

Heath Miller is a young guy who's got a lot of talent, but unfortunately is on a run-first team that doesn't like to let their QB loose too much. However, after Roethlisberger's performance in the Super Bowl, it seems that Cowher may soften up to letting Roethlisberger use his arm a little more. That can only be good for Miller, who is a great target at 6'5" and 256 pounds, plus he has decent speed.

One point of concern is that Miller did not score one touchdown throught the entire months of November and December, and during that time recorded only 17 receptions. This may signify that defenses were keying on what he was doing after he absolutely exploded in October (17 rec, 184 yards, 5 TD). Also, it could just be that Pittsburgh way of not passing in the second half and just pounding away by running the ball.

Miller has the potential to be a Top 10 Tight End this year, and I think that it all depends on how Bill Cowher decides to use Roethlisberger in the passing game. If he decides to air it out a little more, put Miller up for a great year and a Top 10 finish. If he decides to grind it out on the ground more, Miller will be used in more of a blocking role and will not finish in the Top 10.

That said, here are my projections:

Receptions: 45

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD's: 5

 

[Cool in the pocket]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

Over the last 6 years, Hines Ward has scored 4TDs in 3 seasons, and 10+ TDs in 3 seasons. Why are you sure he'll get the 10 and not the 4?

But the last 4 have been 2002--12, 2003--10, 2004--4, 2005--11, so I'd say he's more likely to get 10 than 4, but your point is taken as TD's are difficult to predict. Plus I think that 2004 was Ben's first year--didn't he take over for Maddox who got hurt? That being said, do you agree that it is more likely that Ward get 10 than Miller get 9?

 

[Musesboy]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions  675 yards  9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

My current projections are as follows:Roethlisberger

256/400 3280 passing yards 24 TDs 14 INTs

60 rushes 150 yards 3 TDs

Ward

91 receptions 1100 yards 10 TDs

Miller

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

Steelers last year

21 receiving TDs

Parker 1

Morgan 2

Randle El 1

Ward 11

Miller 6

Full commentary is in the individual threads. Essentially I think that Roethlisberger will throw more than in the previous two seasons with Bettis unavailable for short yardage situations. Ward is now by far the most experienced receiver on the team (even moreso) and I think his production will go up, while the 11 TDs was a bit of a freak number so I am not projecting a similar spike in TD numbers for him. Bettis had 9 rushing TDs and has not really been replaced, so I am expecting Miller to get three more goal line TDs as a result, and I have Roethlisberger projected to run three in himself.

 

[diesel7982]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions  675 yards  9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

Over the last 6 years, Hines Ward has scored 4TDs in 3 seasons, and 10+ TDs in 3 seasons. Why are you sure he'll get the 10 and not the 4?

But the last 4 have been 2002--12, 2003--10, 2004--4, 2005--11, so I'd say he's more likely to get 10 than 4, but your point is taken as TD's are difficult to predict. Plus I think that 2004 was Ben's first year--didn't he take over for Maddox who got hurt? That being said, do you agree that it is more likely that Ward get 10 than Miller get 9?

With the exception of Gates,and possibly Gonzalez and Shockey, Id agree its more likely for almost ANY starting WR to score 9 TDs than it is for Heath Miller. But Id say that for almost every other TE in the league also. 9 for a TE would be a historical statistical oddity. 10TDs for a WR would not be.Yes, you are correct about 2004 and Maddox. My point was not to disprove your 10TD theory for Ward, just to put it in historical relevance. Id feel alot more comfortable saying you can pencil in 7 TDs than 10.

 

[Musesboy]

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO

I agree that it looks odd, but that's how I think things will shake out due to the lack of a proven goal line back or a big receiver to target in the red zone.Bubba Franks in his second season: | 16 | 36 322 8.9 9

 

[Cool in the pocket]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

My current projections are as follows:Roethlisberger

256/400 3280 passing yards 24 TDs 14 INTs

60 rushes 150 yards 3 TDs

Ward

91 receptions 1100 yards 10 TDs

Miller

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

Steelers last year

21 receiving TDs

Parker 1

Morgan 2

Randle El 1

Ward 11

Miller 6

Full commentary is in the individual threads. Essentially I think that Roethlisberger will throw more than in the previous two seasons with Bettis unavailable for short yardage situations. Ward is now by far the most experienced receiver on the team (even moreso) and I think his production will go up, while the 11 TDs was a bit of a freak number so I am not projecting a similar spike in TD numbers for him. Bettis had 9 rushing TDs and has not really been replaced, so I am expecting Miller to get three more goal line TDs as a result, and I have Roethlisberger projected to run three in himself.

I see where you are coming from, but you are basically saying that the rest of the receiving corps will improve by 1 TD total on their totals from last year despite the increase in passing projected from Ben. These were pretty tame already. Essentially all the increased passng TD's go to Heath. Just seems like a stretch to me.

 

[Musesboy]

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team notices a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions  675 yards  9 TDs

A second year tight end on a run first offense getting 9 TD's? Seems very optimistic IMHO. How many TD's are you projecting for Ben? Ward is gonna get his 10ish plus Miller's 9 means Ben is going to throw alot of TD's considering he is at 19 without: Parker, Holmes, Wilson, Morgan et al. Personally I see Ben's ceiling at around 25 this year. Ward is much more likely to get his 10 than Miller getting 9, so unless you are projecting either 27-30 TD's for Ben or virtually nothing from the rest of the receiving corps, I disagree with your projection. For Miller, I have him at:60 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TD's

Agree with BG that he is another reason to wai tin TE this year.

My current projections are as follows:Roethlisberger

256/400 3280 passing yards 24 TDs 14 INTs

60 rushes 150 yards 3 TDs

Ward

91 receptions 1100 yards 10 TDs

Miller

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

Steelers last year

21 receiving TDs

Parker 1

Morgan 2

Randle El 1

Ward 11

Miller 6

Full commentary is in the individual threads. Essentially I think that Roethlisberger will throw more than in the previous two seasons with Bettis unavailable for short yardage situations. Ward is now by far the most experienced receiver on the team (even moreso) and I think his production will go up, while the 11 TDs was a bit of a freak number so I am not projecting a similar spike in TD numbers for him. Bettis had 9 rushing TDs and has not really been replaced, so I am expecting Miller to get three more goal line TDs as a result, and I have Roethlisberger projected to run three in himself.

I see where you are coming from, but you are basically saying that the rest of the receiving corps will improve by 1 TD total on their totals from last year despite the increase in passing projected from Ben. These were pretty tame already. Essentially all the increased passng TD's go to Heath. Just seems like a stretch to me.

Yep, pretty much. The WR2 will be even less experienced than last year. Miller did well for a stretch and he could easily replace the goal line back on occasion in my opinion. I could be wrong of course, but that's the way I see it.

 

[rzrback77]

Heath Miller is a fairly talented guy on a run-first team. I believe that his floor is much lower than many in this thread. He is a second year guy that had 39 catches for 459 yards and 6 TDs in his rookie season. FBG is predicting 40-480-5 for his second campaign. Several above have projected much higher numbers and spoke of top five finish.

I feel compelled to point out that there are only five spots available in the top five. All I have heard this off-season is the value at TE. I think that some of htat perceived value is that there are about ten or twelve guys in a tier below the top five and each of those ten or twelve have a few fans willing to project top five. Well, its very likley not going to happen, just like here with Miller.

Pittsburg will continue to run the ball. It is their history that they cling to and its a great game plan for winning. The undervalue in Pitt likely lies with their RB, if you successfully identify him.

In Miller's first season, he opened with 19 catches for 200 yards and 6 TDs in the first nine games. He closed with 20 catches for 259 yards and NO TDs in the last nine. I just don't see the optimism for TDs to increase radically when they disappeared in the second half of his first season.

I project 40 catches for 477 and 5 TDs very close to FBG, but still on the low end of someone with an ADP 102 and a projection of TE 15.

 

[Bri]

Heath Miller, a good athletic TE, was new to the Steeler's offense. For year's they've had excellent blockers that were just OK at receiving and not a focal point of the offense. Eric Green was probably the last solid receiving threat they had and he played several years ago. Last year was also the first year they didn't have a very talented albeit enigmatic Wide Receiver in Plaxico Buress. There was quite a bit of change in their offense in 2005.

This year is the first year in a long time that they won't have Jerome Bettis. Jerome finished his career with hall of fame caliber rushing stats by pounding the ball up the middle and daring defenses to stop him. Willie Parker is more shifty and not as brutal a runner as Jerome. The biggest change in Pittsburgh won't be how the Steelers play but how the opposing Defenses play them. Keep in mind teams had to stack the line and or have a LB "sit home" just to stop Jerome in fear of him bowling over defenders. If they don't establish Heath Miller up the middle and keep Parker running up the middle some(instead of scooting outside everytime) they will be real easy to defense and just about any zone will work against them. Bill Cowher is an excellent coach and I'm confident he's aware of this upcoming change by opposing Ds and feel "he's all over it".

Heath seems like the hard nosed soft hands TE the Steelers would have made with the Madden video game. He's perfect for them.

I would predict 50 catches 700 yards and 9 TDs that's around 10 catches 250 yards and 3 TDs more than his rookie year. It's tempting to predict a high total of yards and catches but more often than not TEs are swarmed by the D and 1000 yards by a TE is far harder to attain than 1000 yards by a WR. The Steelers are relatively tiny at WR and in NFL history that usually translates to red zone struggles. Many predict with Bettis that the Steelers will struggle in the redzone. 9 TDs seems high but someone will score and Heath has as many TDs in one year as Cedrick Wilson has in his whole career. It seems an obvious choice for a red zone threat.

 

[diesel7982]

Heath Miller, a good athletic TE, was new to the Steeler's offense. For year's they've had excellent blockers that were just OK at receiving and not a focal point of the offense. Eric Green was probably the last solid receiving threat they had and he played several years ago. Last year was also the first year they didn't have a very talented albeit enigmatic Wide Receiver in Plaxico Buress. There was quite a bit of change in their offense in 2005.

This year is the first year in a long time that they won't have Jerome Bettis. Jerome finished his career with hall of fame caliber rushing stats by pounding the ball up the middle and daring defenses to stop him. Willie Parker is more shifty and not as brutal a runner as Jerome. The biggest change in Pittsburgh won't be how the Steelers play but how the opposing Defenses play them. Keep in mind teams had to stack the line and or have a LB "sit home" just to stop Jerome in fear of him bowling over defenders. If they don't establish Heath Miller up the middle and keep Parker running up the middle some(instead of scooting outside everytime) they will be real easy to defense and just about any zone will work against them. Bill Cowher is an excellent coach and I'm confident he's aware of this upcoming change by opposing Ds and feel "he's all over it".

Heath seems like the hard nosed soft hands TE the Steelers would have made with the Madden video game. He's perfect for them.

I would predict 50 catches 700 yards and 9 TDs that's around 10 catches 250 yards and 3 TDs more than his rookie year. It's tempting to predict a high total of yards and catches but more often than not TEs are swarmed by the D and 1000 yards by a TE is far harder to attain than 1000 yards by a WR. The Steelers are relatively tiny at WR and in NFL history that usually translates to red zone struggles. Many predict with Bettis that the Steelers will struggle in the redzone. 9 TDs seems high but someone will score and Heath has as many TDs in one year as Cedrick Wilson has in his whole career. It seems an obvious choice for a red zone threat.

While the YPC jump for TEs in their 2nd years is pretty much historical fact...wow. 14ypc would be amazing for a TE. Funny thing is, I dont totally discount that from Miller. Hes great after the catch for a TE, and with the way PITT uses him, him having a Dallas Clark 2004-like season(except with a few more catches) would not surprise me.

 

[Bri]

Heath Miller, a good athletic TE, was new to the Steeler's offense. For year's they've had excellent blockers that were just OK at receiving and not a focal point of the offense. Eric Green was probably the last solid receiving threat they had and he played several years ago. Last year was also the first year they didn't have a very talented albeit enigmatic Wide Receiver in Plaxico Buress. There was quite a bit of change in their offense in 2005.

This year is the first year in a long time that they won't have Jerome Bettis. Jerome finished his career with hall of fame caliber rushing stats by pounding the ball up the middle and daring defenses to stop him. Willie Parker is more shifty and not as brutal a runner as Jerome. The biggest change in Pittsburgh won't be how the Steelers play but how the opposing Defenses play them. Keep in mind teams had to stack the line and or have a LB "sit home" just to stop Jerome in fear of him bowling over defenders. If they don't establish Heath Miller up the middle and keep Parker running up the middle some(instead of scooting outside everytime) they will be real easy to defense and just about any zone will work against them. Bill Cowher is an excellent coach and I'm confident he's aware of this upcoming change by opposing Ds and feel "he's all over it".

Heath seems like the hard nosed soft hands TE the Steelers would have made with the Madden video game. He's perfect for them.

I would predict 50 catches 700 yards and 9 TDs that's around 10 catches 250 yards and 3 TDs more than his rookie year. It's tempting to predict a high total of yards and catches but more often than not TEs are swarmed by the D and 1000 yards by a TE is far harder to attain than 1000 yards by a WR. The Steelers are relatively tiny at WR and in NFL history that usually translates to red zone struggles. Many predict with Bettis that the Steelers will struggle in the redzone. 9 TDs seems high but someone will score and Heath has as many TDs in one year as Cedrick Wilson has in his whole career. It seems an obvious choice for a red zone threat.

While the YPC jump for TEs in their 2nd years is pretty much historical fact...wow. 14ypc would be amazing for a TE. Funny thing is, I dont totally discount that from Miller. Hes great after the catch for a TE, and with the way PITT uses him, him having a Dallas Clark 2004-like season(except with a few more catches) would not surprise me.

thanks for the input. Projections aren't something I normally do, didn't think of that. What's realistic then w/ YPC? 55? 60?

 

[diesel7982]

Heath Miller, a good athletic TE, was new to the Steeler's offense. For year's they've had excellent blockers that were just OK at receiving and not a focal point of the offense. Eric Green was probably the last solid receiving threat they had and he played several years ago. Last year was also the first year they didn't have a very talented albeit enigmatic Wide Receiver in Plaxico Buress. There was quite a bit of change in their offense in 2005.

This year is the first year in a long time that they won't have Jerome Bettis. Jerome finished his career with hall of fame caliber rushing stats by pounding the ball up the middle and daring defenses to stop him. Willie Parker is more shifty and not as brutal a runner as Jerome. The biggest change in Pittsburgh won't be how the Steelers play but how the opposing Defenses play them. Keep in mind teams had to stack the line and or have a LB "sit home" just to stop Jerome in fear of him bowling over defenders. If they don't establish Heath Miller up the middle and keep Parker running up the middle some(instead of scooting outside everytime) they will be real easy to defense and just about any zone will work against them. Bill Cowher is an excellent coach and I'm confident he's aware of this upcoming change by opposing Ds and feel "he's all over it".

Heath seems like the hard nosed soft hands TE the Steelers would have made with the Madden video game. He's perfect for them.

I would predict 50 catches 700 yards and 9 TDs that's around 10 catches 250 yards and 3 TDs more than his rookie year. It's tempting to predict a high total of yards and catches but more often than not TEs are swarmed by the D and 1000 yards by a TE is far harder to attain than 1000 yards by a WR. The Steelers are relatively tiny at WR and in NFL history that usually translates to red zone struggles. Many predict with Bettis that the Steelers will struggle in the redzone. 9 TDs seems high but someone will score and Heath has as many TDs in one year as Cedrick Wilson has in his whole career. It seems an obvious choice for a red zone threat.

While the YPC jump for TEs in their 2nd years is pretty much historical fact...wow. 14ypc would be amazing for a TE. Funny thing is, I dont totally discount that from Miller. Hes great after the catch for a TE, and with the way PITT uses him, him having a Dallas Clark 2004-like season(except with a few more catches) would not surprise me.

thanks for the input. Projections aren't something I normally do, didn't think of that. What's realistic then w/ YPC? 55? 60?

Miller is an odd case. Most TEs that enter the league as starters don't approach anything close to a 11.8 average in their first year. So one must wonder how much room does he have to grow?On one hand, Miller will likely be the #2 reciever in this offense for the 2006 season. He will likely be used split out wide, and down the seams. This suggests his ypc will improve even more, given his after-the-catch ability. On the other hand, I think one can legitimately assume he will be a short-yardage/goal-line threat, and will likely catch a few more short passes this year.

So where does that leave Miller's YPC? Id still expect it to increase. I think 14.0 is very unlikely. As I said earlier, its possible, but historically unlikely. The only TE I can think of with 40+ catches who has had that type of YPC in the last 10 years or so was Alge Crumpler. I know Dallas Clark did 2 years ago, but I think it was on 25 or so catches.

Id expect an uptick in receptions, closer to 55 or so, and 700 yards, giving him a little higher than 12.5 ypc for the season. I think 4-5 TDs is his floor, but have a hard time seeing him with more than 8-9, just from an opportunity standpoint.

So, my final projection would look something like: 55/700/7.

 

[Liquid Smoke]

was an excellent rookie TE last year, i think he will continue to do very well.

Receptions: ~60

Receiving Yards: ~1,000

Receiving TDs: ~6

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'm seeing a lot of comments stating that Pittsburgh is a run first team. While we all know that Cowher loves to run the ball, I'm not convinced that Willie Parker and a constantly gimpy Duce Staley constitute a powerful running threat.

We all know that the Pitt RB will get their carries and their yards. But the rapid development of Ben Roethlisberger into a fine NFL passer portends well for Heath Miller. Yes, Cowher wants to stress the running game. But Cowher knows he has a bright young QB, and Miller will see a lot of red zone targets. Miller has soft hands and can get open on a regular basis. Add all that to the fact that Pitt lacks a solid #2 WR, and you get a solid season for Miller.

Receptions: 65

Receiving Yards: 1,100

Receiving TDs: 7

 

[Musesboy]

I'm seeing a lot of comments stating that Pittsburgh is a run first team. While we all know that Cowher loves to run the ball, I'm not convinced that Willie Parker and a constantly gimpy Duce Staley constitute a powerful running threat.

We all know that the Pitt RB will get their carries and their yards. But the rapid development of Ben Roethlisberger into a fine NFL passer portends well for Heath Miller. Yes, Cowher wants to stress the running game. But Cowher knows he has a bright young QB, and Miller will see a lot of red zone targets. Miller has soft hands and can get open on a regular basis. Add all that to the fact that Pitt lacks a solid #2 WR, and you get a solid season for Miller.

Receptions: 65

Receiving Yards: 1,100

Receiving TDs: 7

I agree that Miller's production is set to increase, but can you explain why you think his yards per catch will increase from 11.8 to 16.9? Crumpler achieved 16.1 in 2004 but it seems quite a leap for Miller. 1100 yards would match what Gates achieved last year, but that took 89 receptions.

 

[mlball77]

Heath Miller is a young guy who's got a lot of talent, but unfortunately is on a run-first team that doesn't like to let their QB loose too much. However, after Roethlisberger's performance in the Super Bowl, it seems that Cowher may soften up to letting Roethlisberger use his arm a little more. That can only be good for Miller, who is a great target at 6'5" and 256 pounds, plus he has decent speed.

One point of concern is that Miller did not score one touchdown throught the entire months of November and December, and during that time recorded only 17 receptions. This may signify that defenses were keying on what he was doing after he absolutely exploded in October (17 rec, 184 yards, 5 TD). Also, it could just be that Pittsburgh way of not passing in the second half and just pounding away by running the ball.

Miller has the potential to be a Top 10 Tight End this year, and I think that it all depends on how Bill Cowher decides to use Roethlisberger in the passing game. If he decides to air it out a little more, put Miller up for a great year and a Top 10 finish. If he decides to grind it out on the ground more, Miller will be used in more of a blocking role and will not finish in the Top 10.

That said, here are my projections:

Receptions: 45

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD's: 5

Excellent post. My thoughts on Miller are very similar to yours... and my projection is almost identical. Recs: 45

Rec Yds: 500

Rec TDs: 6

I do think that Miller has potential for a big upside, I just don't see that upside panning out in 2006.

 

[diesel7982]

Heath Miller is a young guy who's got a lot of talent, but unfortunately is on a run-first team that doesn't like to let their QB loose too much.  However, after Roethlisberger's performance in the Super Bowl, it seems that Cowher may soften up to letting Roethlisberger use his arm a little more.  That can only be good for Miller, who is a great target at 6'5" and 256 pounds, plus he has decent speed. 

One point of concern is that Miller did not score one touchdown throught the entire months of November and December, and during that time recorded only 17 receptions.  This may signify that defenses were keying on what he was doing after he absolutely exploded in October (17 rec, 184 yards, 5 TD).  Also, it could just be that Pittsburgh way of not passing in the second half and just pounding away by running the ball. 

Miller has the potential to be a Top 10 Tight End this year, and I think that it all depends on how Bill Cowher decides to use Roethlisberger in the passing game.  If he decides to air it out a little more, put Miller up for a great year and a Top 10 finish.  If he decides to grind it out on the ground more, Miller will be used in more of a blocking role and will not finish in the Top 10.

That said, here are my projections:

Receptions: 45

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD's: 5

Excellent post. My thoughts on Miller are very similar to yours... and my projection is almost identical. Recs: 45

Rec Yds: 500

Rec TDs: 6

I do think that Miller has potential for a big upside, I just don't see that upside panning out in 2006.

Why would his ypc drop in 2006?

 

[mlball77]

Heath Miller is a young guy who's got a lot of talent, but unfortunately is on a run-first team that doesn't like to let their QB loose too much. However, after Roethlisberger's performance in the Super Bowl, it seems that Cowher may soften up to letting Roethlisberger use his arm a little more. That can only be good for Miller, who is a great target at 6'5" and 256 pounds, plus he has decent speed.

One point of concern is that Miller did not score one touchdown throught the entire months of November and December, and during that time recorded only 17 receptions. This may signify that defenses were keying on what he was doing after he absolutely exploded in October (17 rec, 184 yards, 5 TD). Also, it could just be that Pittsburgh way of not passing in the second half and just pounding away by running the ball.

Miller has the potential to be a Top 10 Tight End this year, and I think that it all depends on how Bill Cowher decides to use Roethlisberger in the passing game. If he decides to air it out a little more, put Miller up for a great year and a Top 10 finish. If he decides to grind it out on the ground more, Miller will be used in more of a blocking role and will not finish in the Top 10.

That said, here are my projections:

Receptions: 45

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD's: 5

Excellent post. My thoughts on Miller are very similar to yours... and my projection is almost identical. Recs: 45

Rec Yds: 500

Rec TDs: 6

I do think that Miller has potential for a big upside, I just don't see that upside panning out in 2006.

Why would his ypc drop in 2006?

Maybe his YPC should be a touch higher, but a little over 11 YPC doesn't seem out of line at all for a TE to me. Plus, Miller only has one year (and 39 recs) to use as a base... so the sample is pretty small... basically, a 0.7 YPC decrease from what was a med-high YPC output for a TE isn't that far-fetched for Miller, imo.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'm seeing a lot of comments stating that Pittsburgh is a run first team. While we all know that Cowher loves to run the ball, I'm not convinced that Willie Parker and a constantly gimpy Duce Staley constitute a powerful running threat.

We all know that the Pitt RB will get their carries and their yards. But the rapid development of Ben Roethlisberger into a fine NFL passer portends well for Heath Miller. Yes, Cowher wants to stress the running game. But Cowher knows he has a bright young QB, and Miller will see a lot of red zone targets. Miller has soft hands and can get open on a regular basis. Add all that to the fact that Pitt lacks a solid #2 WR, and you get a solid season for Miller.

Receptions: 65

Receiving Yards: 1,100

Receiving TDs: 7

I agree that Miller's production is set to increase, but can you explain why you think his yards per catch will increase from 11.8 to 16.9? Crumpler achieved 16.1 in 2004 but it seems quite a leap for Miller. 1100 yards would match what Gates achieved last year, but that took 89 receptions.

That's a valid point. I do see Miller getting more targets than last year. But I might have been generous with the yards.

 

[joffer]

I'm seeing a lot of comments stating that Pittsburgh is a run first team. While we all know that Cowher loves to run the ball, I'm not convinced that Willie Parker and a constantly gimpy Duce Staley constitute a powerful running threat.

We all know that the Pitt RB will get their carries and their yards. But the rapid development of Ben Roethlisberger into a fine NFL passer portends well for Heath Miller. Yes, Cowher wants to stress the running game. But Cowher knows he has a bright young QB, and Miller will see a lot of red zone targets. Miller has soft hands and can get open on a regular basis. Add all that to the fact that Pitt lacks a solid #2 WR, and you get a solid season for Miller.

Receptions: 65

Receiving Yards: 1,100

Receiving TDs: 7

I agree that Miller's production is set to increase, but can you explain why you think his yards per catch will increase from 11.8 to 16.9? Crumpler achieved 16.1 in 2004 but it seems quite a leap for Miller. 1100 yards would match what Gates achieved last year, but that took 89 receptions.

That's a valid point. I do see Miller getting more targets than last year. But I might have been generous with the yards.

that would be the highest YPC for any TE in the last 20 years with a minimum of 35 catches. i agree with most of your thoughts though.46/500/7 is my projection

 

[diesel7982]

Heath Miller is a young guy who's got a lot of talent, but unfortunately is on a run-first team that doesn't like to let their QB loose too much. However, after Roethlisberger's performance in the Super Bowl, it seems that Cowher may soften up to letting Roethlisberger use his arm a little more. That can only be good for Miller, who is a great target at 6'5" and 256 pounds, plus he has decent speed.

One point of concern is that Miller did not score one touchdown throught the entire months of November and December, and during that time recorded only 17 receptions. This may signify that defenses were keying on what he was doing after he absolutely exploded in October (17 rec, 184 yards, 5 TD). Also, it could just be that Pittsburgh way of not passing in the second half and just pounding away by running the ball.

Miller has the potential to be a Top 10 Tight End this year, and I think that it all depends on how Bill Cowher decides to use Roethlisberger in the passing game. If he decides to air it out a little more, put Miller up for a great year and a Top 10 finish. If he decides to grind it out on the ground more, Miller will be used in more of a blocking role and will not finish in the Top 10.

That said, here are my projections:

Receptions: 45

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD's: 5

Excellent post. My thoughts on Miller are very similar to yours... and my projection is almost identical. Recs: 45

Rec Yds: 500

Rec TDs: 6

I do think that Miller has potential for a big upside, I just don't see that upside panning out in 2006.

Why would his ypc drop in 2006?

Maybe his YPC should be a touch higher, but a little over 11 YPC doesn't seem out of line at all for a TE to me. Plus, Miller only has one year (and 39 recs) to use as a base... so the sample is pretty small... basically, a 0.7 YPC decrease from what was a med-high YPC output for a TE isn't that far-fetched for Miller, imo.

The list of TEs who produce in both their first and second years, but drop off in ypc in their 2nd years, is extremely short. Thats the only reason I ask. Miller seems primed to put together a bigger 2006 season, and I have a hard time seeing him regressing in that area.

 

[mlball77]

Heath Miller is a young guy who's got a lot of talent, but unfortunately is on a run-first team that doesn't like to let their QB loose too much. However, after Roethlisberger's performance in the Super Bowl, it seems that Cowher may soften up to letting Roethlisberger use his arm a little more. That can only be good for Miller, who is a great target at 6'5" and 256 pounds, plus he has decent speed.

One point of concern is that Miller did not score one touchdown throught the entire months of November and December, and during that time recorded only 17 receptions. This may signify that defenses were keying on what he was doing after he absolutely exploded in October (17 rec, 184 yards, 5 TD). Also, it could just be that Pittsburgh way of not passing in the second half and just pounding away by running the ball.

Miller has the potential to be a Top 10 Tight End this year, and I think that it all depends on how Bill Cowher decides to use Roethlisberger in the passing game. If he decides to air it out a little more, put Miller up for a great year and a Top 10 finish. If he decides to grind it out on the ground more, Miller will be used in more of a blocking role and will not finish in the Top 10.

That said, here are my projections:

Receptions: 45

Reception Yards: 500

Reception TD's: 5

Excellent post. My thoughts on Miller are very similar to yours... and my projection is almost identical. Recs: 45

Rec Yds: 500

Rec TDs: 6

I do think that Miller has potential for a big upside, I just don't see that upside panning out in 2006.

Why would his ypc drop in 2006?

Maybe his YPC should be a touch higher, but a little over 11 YPC doesn't seem out of line at all for a TE to me. Plus, Miller only has one year (and 39 recs) to use as a base... so the sample is pretty small... basically, a 0.7 YPC decrease from what was a med-high YPC output for a TE isn't that far-fetched for Miller, imo.

The list of TEs who produce in both their first and second years, but drop off in ypc in their 2nd years, is extremely short. Thats the only reason I ask. Miller seems primed to put together a bigger 2006 season, and I have a hard time seeing him regressing in that area.

Interesting ... do you have that data list of TEs that regress in YPC in year two after a solid year one? Not calling you out or anything... just would like to see that list, if you have it. I wouldn't think the list would be that thin, but I could be totally wrong.Thanks.

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

Actual

34 receptions 393 yards 5 TDs

Well this was an embarrassing projection. It looked good after week one, but Miller simply wasn't targeted enough to enable him to meet my expectations. The inexperienced receiving corps saw more looks than I anticipated.

rzrback77 and Lawyer came closest to getting Miller's numbers right

There are two main reasons I expect Heath Miller to increase his production this season:

He will be entering his second year in the league. His production was very inconsistent from week to week last year. After spending a year in the offense, he can be expected to improve. Despite the fact that he was never targeted more than six times in a game, Miller had a respectable first season for the Steelers.

Roethlisberger will have seen what Miller can do, and should trust him and use him more often. Miller caught 75% of his targets last year. Randle El has departed, and the Steelers won't have Jerome Bettis available in short yardage situations. The team will have to find other ways to keep drives alive and put points on the board. Miller has a chance to claim some of those touches this year, especially in the red zone.

Miller has reportedly improved, and the team has noticed a difference between his offseason last year and this year.

Prediction

57 receptions 675 yards 9 TDs

 

[beto]

It was a weird year for the Pittsburgh passing game. A few of us were overly optimistic but reading it over you see a few voices of reason.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The Steelers seem to be "Bruenering" him (look up the career of Mark Bruener for reference - first round pick that was molded into a 3rd tackle) It was a big concern of mine when they drafted him (for fantasy at least). I might be completely off base here, but his body just looks more like a blocker's body than a receiver's body now than it did when he was at Virginia.

He still has the ability to be a solid seam ripping receiving threat, but the Steelers seem to have no will to use him that way. I don't expect that to change if Grimm becomes the head coach.

 

[Routilla]

He's my sleeper TE this year. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

 

[Steel Mike Tomczak]

He's my sleeper TE this year. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Really, Mine is Spaeth Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Spaeth takes away some if not ALOT of Miller's looks. Don't get me wrong, there should be plenty to go around, but Miller's 5 TDs may be reduced to 2 or 3 with Spaeth's bulky 6-7 frame standing in the end zone....

 

[Bri]

This is 06 guys, Jason rolls with 07 spotlight's in his own order in time.

 

[Frank Black]

The Steelers seem to be "Bruenering" him (look up the career of Mark Bruener for reference - first round pick that was molded into a 3rd tackle) It was a big concern of mine when they drafted him (for fantasy at least). I might be completely off base here, but his body just looks more like a blocker's body than a receiver's body now than it did when he was at Virginia.He still has the ability to be a solid seam ripping receiving threat, but the Steelers seem to have no will to use him that way. I don't expect that to change if Grimm becomes the head coach.

 

[mcintyre1]

He's my sleeper TE this year. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Really, Mine is Spaeth Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Spaeth takes away some if not ALOT of Miller's looks. Don't get me wrong, there should be plenty to go around, but Miller's 5 TDs may be reduced to 2 or 3 with Spaeth's bulky 6-7 frame standing in the end zone....

You don't replace a 1st round TE who has played very well with a 3rd round TE just because he's taller. I don't see Spaeth doing much in the PIT passing game.

 

[Steel Mike Tomczak]

He's my sleeper TE this year. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Really, Mine is Spaeth Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Spaeth takes away some if not ALOT of Miller's looks. Don't get me wrong, there should be plenty to go around, but Miller's 5 TDs may be reduced to 2 or 3 with Spaeth's bulky 6-7 frame standing in the end zone....

You don't replace a 1st round TE who has played very well with a 3rd round TE just because he's taller. I don't see Spaeth doing much in the PIT passing game.

Reaaaally?