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From The Gut IDP (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
From the Gut: IDP

A lot of this stuff is probably old news to those who've heard me ramble around the Forum for the past six months, but it's fun to piggyback on Dodds' From the Gut series with some of my strongest held feelings on the defensive side of the ball for this year.

 
Great stuff!

Should I be losing all hope when it comes to Everette Brown winning a starting DE job with Carolina? Do I have reason to be encouraged in light of his performance this past weekend (5 tackles/2 sacks I believe)?

 
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Interesting to see you think both Whitner and Milloy are candidates for 85+ tackles. Both are FAs in my league. Should I hop on one or both?

 
Wow. Phenomenal writeup. Some great ammunition here in support of the "wait 2-4 rounds before drafting IDP to stock up on Offense" strategy. Especially this year with such a huge group of RBBC's.

:confused:

 
FunkyTeaParty said:
Interesting to see you think both Whitner and Milloy are candidates for 85+ tackles. Both are FAs in my league. Should I hop on one or both?
:thumbup: I'm teetering on picking up Milloy....he was productive in Atlanta, IIRC.
 
Great stuff!Should I be losing all hope when it comes to Everette Brown winning a starting DE job with Carolina? Do I have reason to be encouraged in light of his performance this past weekend (5 tackles/2 sacks I believe)?
It would appear that Brown would need an injury to the current rotation to start this year. Long term, I still think he has the skill set to be effective on early downs and could earn a starting and every-down role. I wouldn't put much stock in preseason stats -- offenses are vanilla and there's always second teamers mixed in with the ones -- other than to be pleased that Brown can be dominant against lesser competition. That's important. I wouldn't have been terribly disappointed if he didn't run up numbers against the second team, but it's usually reassuring when a guy looks like the best player on the field when the twos are out there.
FunkyTeaParty said:
Interesting to see you think both Whitner and Milloy are candidates for 85+ tackles. Both are FAs in my league. Should I hop on one or both?
Whitner and Milloy are the riskiest of those I noted. Depending on league parameters, I think I'd trust Whitner as a DB3 (top 25 upside or better) lineup option and would roster Milloy as depth and hope his alignment in the Seattle scheme gives him enough chances behind what looks like a pretty solid linebacker corps.
 
Now that we know Sean Jones is a lock at SS in TB is he a potential top 10 in tackle heavy leagues? I think he has a better chance at cracking the top 10 than Chris Harris does in Chi!!!

Jones 80 tackles 25 assist 1 sack and 3 int.

 
Now that we know Sean Jones is a lock at SS in TB is he a potential top 10 in tackle heavy leagues? I think he has a better chance at cracking the top 10 than Chris Harris does in Chi!!!Jones 80 tackles 25 assist 1 sack and 3 int.
As someone who drafted Harris over Jones (who wasn't drafted in my league, which is a keeper league), I'd be very interested in a take on this too. I'm also interested in TJ Ward and Burnett - I will probably have the opportunity to pick up one of these guys and I'm pretty high on both but don't have a real sense of what their upside is and whether it could put them in the top 15-20 guys in a tackle heavy league. Most places have Burnett ranked higher and I like his situation, but Ward is on a bad team with it seems not as much competition for tackles. Even if he plays FS, I think there is plenty of value there (though I have seen him listed at SS on a couple of depth charts I've seen). How would you compare these two guys?
 
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Now that we know Sean Jones is a lock at SS in TB is he a potential top 10 in tackle heavy leagues? I think he has a better chance at cracking the top 10 than Chris Harris does in Chi!!!Jones 80 tackles 25 assist 1 sack and 3 int.
As someone who drafted Harris over Jones (who wasn't drafted in my league, which is a keeper league), I'd be very interested in a take on this too. I'm also interested in TJ Ward and Burnett - I will probably have the opportunity to pick up one of these guys and I'm pretty high on both but don't have a real sense of what their upside is and whether it could put them in the top 15-20 guys in a tackle heavy league. Most places have Burnett ranked higher and I like his situation, but Ward is on a bad team with it seems not as much competition for tackles. Even if he plays FS, I think there is plenty of value there (though I have seen him listed at SS on a couple of depth charts I've seen). How would you compare these two guys?
Sean Jones is in a totally different situation than the one in which he thrived in Cleveland. He'll see some time in the box and the tackle opportunity should be at least average, but he'll see plenty of snaps where he'll be aligned in an Cover-2, 12-15 yards off the LOS. And he's stuck behind a very good group of linebackers. He knows how to get himself around the ball, though, so there's a little added big play value for him. I don't think I'd expect much more than 70 solos with an above-average number of coverage plays. Stable DB3 with upside.TJ Ward gets more and more interesting. He looked like a big upgrade at FS to me -- not that he is a terrible fit at SS, but Mangini always seemed to like Elam (average as he may be) and then doubled up with a more traditional SS type in Larry Asante later in the same draft. But he's been seeing time at SS and the Browns were showing off some 46 in the first couple of preseason games and it was Ward that came down into the box. There's too much going on with the LBs and DBs to get a good hold on this but I think Ward is a very interesting DB3 flyer and the surrounding cast could quickly turn him into a DB1 if he ends up playing a FS/SS/Bear SS type role.Morgan Burnett is the surest option today. He's locked up the SS in an aggressive 3-4, can cover and has an ILB group that would appear to be falling apart. Hawk has always struggled to live up to the range his scouting reports suggested and now Burnett's knee has acted up. That's a great setup for a run supporting safety that can cover. I think he's a safe DB2 that could surprise with 80 solos, 3-5 INTs, double digit PDs and a sack or two.I'm cooling on Harris a bit. The Bears don't play as much Cover-2 as you'd think and it's a little odd that they're putting the thumper at FS. There's too many guys that can be had at a similar draft position (see the three above for starters) that I like better as a DB3 with upside. If you can get him as depth later in your draft, he's a reasonable pick, but I'd rather roll the dice on higher upside.
 
Now that we know Sean Jones is a lock at SS in TB is he a potential top 10 in tackle heavy leagues? I think he has a better chance at cracking the top 10 than Chris Harris does in Chi!!!Jones 80 tackles 25 assist 1 sack and 3 int.
As someone who drafted Harris over Jones (who wasn't drafted in my league, which is a keeper league), I'd be very interested in a take on this too. I'm also interested in TJ Ward and Burnett - I will probably have the opportunity to pick up one of these guys and I'm pretty high on both but don't have a real sense of what their upside is and whether it could put them in the top 15-20 guys in a tackle heavy league. Most places have Burnett ranked higher and I like his situation, but Ward is on a bad team with it seems not as much competition for tackles. Even if he plays FS, I think there is plenty of value there (though I have seen him listed at SS on a couple of depth charts I've seen). How would you compare these two guys?
Sean Jones is in a totally different situation than the one in which he thrived in Cleveland. He'll see some time in the box and the tackle opportunity should be at least average, but he'll see plenty of snaps where he'll be aligned in an Cover-2, 12-15 yards off the LOS. And he's stuck behind a very good group of linebackers. He knows how to get himself around the ball, though, so there's a little added big play value for him. I don't think I'd expect much more than 70 solos with an above-average number of coverage plays. Stable DB3 with upside.TJ Ward gets more and more interesting. He looked like a big upgrade at FS to me -- not that he is a terrible fit at SS, but Mangini always seemed to like Elam (average as he may be) and then doubled up with a more traditional SS type in Larry Asante later in the same draft. But he's been seeing time at SS and the Browns were showing off some 46 in the first couple of preseason games and it was Ward that came down into the box. There's too much going on with the LBs and DBs to get a good hold on this but I think Ward is a very interesting DB3 flyer and the surrounding cast could quickly turn him into a DB1 if he ends up playing a FS/SS/Bear SS type role.Morgan Burnett is the surest option today. He's locked up the SS in an aggressive 3-4, can cover and has an ILB group that would appear to be falling apart. Hawk has always struggled to live up to the range his scouting reports suggested and now Burnett's knee has acted up. That's a great setup for a run supporting safety that can cover. I think he's a safe DB2 that could surprise with 80 solos, 3-5 INTs, double digit PDs and a sack or two.I'm cooling on Harris a bit. The Bears don't play as much Cover-2 as you'd think and it's a little odd that they're putting the thumper at FS. There's too many guys that can be had at a similar draft position (see the three above for starters) that I like better as a DB3 with upside. If you can get him as depth later in your draft, he's a reasonable pick, but I'd rather roll the dice on higher upside.
Thanks Jene - great info as always. I've also cooled on Harris since my draft and will likely drop him for one of Ward or Burnett. Unfortunately I can only roster one due to league restrictions.
 
I'm just pulling this out of my ***, but whenever byrd is out, whitner moves to free safety, and wilson, or whoever, is ss.

would this concern you about whitner?

he didn't really seem like he could stick at a position in the past.

 
I'm just pulling this out of my ***, but whenever byrd is out, whitner moves to free safety, and wilson, or whoever, is ss.would this concern you about whitner?he didn't really seem like he could stick at a position in the past.
That's not the plan this year, at least not yet. Wilson was backing up Byrd at FS before the injury and that's how they lined up last week. I'm with you on the Whitner concern, but this coaching staff has had him pegged for SS since they arrived and Whitner has had nothing but good things to say about his role since.
 
Now that we know Sean Jones is a lock at SS in TB is he a potential top 10 in tackle heavy leagues? I think he has a better chance at cracking the top 10 than Chris Harris does in Chi!!!Jones 80 tackles 25 assist 1 sack and 3 int.
As someone who drafted Harris over Jones (who wasn't drafted in my league, which is a keeper league), I'd be very interested in a take on this too. I'm also interested in TJ Ward and Burnett - I will probably have the opportunity to pick up one of these guys and I'm pretty high on both but don't have a real sense of what their upside is and whether it could put them in the top 15-20 guys in a tackle heavy league. Most places have Burnett ranked higher and I like his situation, but Ward is on a bad team with it seems not as much competition for tackles. Even if he plays FS, I think there is plenty of value there (though I have seen him listed at SS on a couple of depth charts I've seen). How would you compare these two guys?
Sean Jones is in a totally different situation than the one in which he thrived in Cleveland. He'll see some time in the box and the tackle opportunity should be at least average, but he'll see plenty of snaps where he'll be aligned in an Cover-2, 12-15 yards off the LOS. And he's stuck behind a very good group of linebackers. He knows how to get himself around the ball, though, so there's a little added big play value for him. I don't think I'd expect much more than 70 solos with an above-average number of coverage plays. Stable DB3 with upside.TJ Ward gets more and more interesting. He looked like a big upgrade at FS to me -- not that he is a terrible fit at SS, but Mangini always seemed to like Elam (average as he may be) and then doubled up with a more traditional SS type in Larry Asante later in the same draft. But he's been seeing time at SS and the Browns were showing off some 46 in the first couple of preseason games and it was Ward that came down into the box. There's too much going on with the LBs and DBs to get a good hold on this but I think Ward is a very interesting DB3 flyer and the surrounding cast could quickly turn him into a DB1 if he ends up playing a FS/SS/Bear SS type role.Morgan Burnett is the surest option today. He's locked up the SS in an aggressive 3-4, can cover and has an ILB group that would appear to be falling apart. Hawk has always struggled to live up to the range his scouting reports suggested and now Burnett's knee has acted up. That's a great setup for a run supporting safety that can cover. I think he's a safe DB2 that could surprise with 80 solos, 3-5 INTs, double digit PDs and a sack or two.I'm cooling on Harris a bit. The Bears don't play as much Cover-2 as you'd think and it's a little odd that they're putting the thumper at FS. There's too many guys that can be had at a similar draft position (see the three above for starters) that I like better as a DB3 with upside. If you can get him as depth later in your draft, he's a reasonable pick, but I'd rather roll the dice on higher upside.
Jene, just making sure... you meant Barnett's knee is acting up, not Burnett's... right? :unsure:
 
TheArchitect said:
Now that we know Sean Jones is a lock at SS in TB is he a potential top 10 in tackle heavy leagues? I think he has a better chance at cracking the top 10 than Chris Harris does in Chi!!!Jones 80 tackles 25 assist 1 sack and 3 int.
As someone who drafted Harris over Jones (who wasn't drafted in my league, which is a keeper league), I'd be very interested in a take on this too. I'm also interested in TJ Ward and Burnett - I will probably have the opportunity to pick up one of these guys and I'm pretty high on both but don't have a real sense of what their upside is and whether it could put them in the top 15-20 guys in a tackle heavy league. Most places have Burnett ranked higher and I like his situation, but Ward is on a bad team with it seems not as much competition for tackles. Even if he plays FS, I think there is plenty of value there (though I have seen him listed at SS on a couple of depth charts I've seen). How would you compare these two guys?
Sean Jones is in a totally different situation than the one in which he thrived in Cleveland. He'll see some time in the box and the tackle opportunity should be at least average, but he'll see plenty of snaps where he'll be aligned in an Cover-2, 12-15 yards off the LOS. And he's stuck behind a very good group of linebackers. He knows how to get himself around the ball, though, so there's a little added big play value for him. I don't think I'd expect much more than 70 solos with an above-average number of coverage plays. Stable DB3 with upside.TJ Ward gets more and more interesting. He looked like a big upgrade at FS to me -- not that he is a terrible fit at SS, but Mangini always seemed to like Elam (average as he may be) and then doubled up with a more traditional SS type in Larry Asante later in the same draft. But he's been seeing time at SS and the Browns were showing off some 46 in the first couple of preseason games and it was Ward that came down into the box. There's too much going on with the LBs and DBs to get a good hold on this but I think Ward is a very interesting DB3 flyer and the surrounding cast could quickly turn him into a DB1 if he ends up playing a FS/SS/Bear SS type role.Morgan Burnett is the surest option today. He's locked up the SS in an aggressive 3-4, can cover and has an ILB group that would appear to be falling apart. Hawk has always struggled to live up to the range his scouting reports suggested and now Burnett's knee has acted up. That's a great setup for a run supporting safety that can cover. I think he's a safe DB2 that could surprise with 80 solos, 3-5 INTs, double digit PDs and a sack or two.I'm cooling on Harris a bit. The Bears don't play as much Cover-2 as you'd think and it's a little odd that they're putting the thumper at FS. There's too many guys that can be had at a similar draft position (see the three above for starters) that I like better as a DB3 with upside. If you can get him as depth later in your draft, he's a reasonable pick, but I'd rather roll the dice on higher upside.
Jene, just making sure... you meant Barnett's knee is acting up, not Burnett's... right? :rolleyes:
Yes. Sorry. I don't know of any issues with Morgan Burnett's knees.
 
Your colleagues Norton and Rudnicki have Whitner ranked in the 44-54 range among safeties - I was checking rankings last night as I have Whitner on a dynasty roster and am analyzing cuts. Have they just not updated their analysis?

 
Your colleagues Norton and Rudnicki have Whitner ranked in the 44-54 range among safeties - I was checking rankings last night as I have Whitner on a dynasty roster and am analyzing cuts. Have they just not updated their analysis?
Not sure. There's certainly some risk here with Bryan Scott and George Wilson having proven themselves in the past and a different scheme with two solid ILBs that could make the Buffalo SS role less effective than it was in 2009.But Edwards tabbed Whitner early in OTAs, he's been good enough in camp and there were no unexpected shuffles when Byrd went down. I wouldn't reach for him as my DB1 or DB2 (unless I'd really let that slot go until late), but I still think there will be plenty of opportunity to support good numbers.

 
I'm set at db. We have large rosters. Any chance george Wilson is a db1 or high end db2 in dynasty? If his upside is 20-30 range I should cut him.

 

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