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Future of Jamaal Charles (1 Viewer)

S

supersecretid

Footballguy
For those in keeper and/or dynasty leagues Jamaal Charles looks pretty interesting depending on your rules and set-up.

1) Does anyone have any good sources on ACL recovery for RBs or similarly useful info? I've heard 2 full years for full recovery. I'd be interested to see that backed up with some legit research (or even a well-compiled list of anecdotes).

2) Where do you guys rank Charles for 2012 and 2013? The Chiefs offense looks bad obviously; I would say Charles would've only been around RB10 if he hadn't been injured.

I think the top end would be for him to go RB15 or sooner next year and top 5 in 2013. That'd be really best case in my eyes though.

At the low end it seems he may or may not ever break the top 20 again.

 
There was a fantastic article that detailed the production for various RBs that suffered ACL tears. It doesn't look good but guys have bounced back. If there's one thing that bodes well for Charles chances of coming back strong it's that the injury happened so early in the season. He's got a full year to recover. While he may not crack the top 5 in rankings I don't see how he doesn't place top 10.

 
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'supersecretid said:
For those in keeper and/or dynasty leagues Jamaal Charles looks pretty interesting depending on your rules and set-up.

1) Does anyone have any good sources on ACL recovery for RBs or similarly useful info? I've heard 2 full years for full recovery. I'd be interested to see that backed up with some legit research (or even a well-compiled list of anecdotes).

2) Where do you guys rank Charles for 2012 and 2013? The Chiefs offense looks bad obviously; I would say Charles would've only been around RB10 if he hadn't been injured.

I think the top end would be for him to go RB15 or sooner next year and top 5 in 2013. That'd be really best case in my eyes though.

At the low end it seems he may or may not ever break the top 20 again.
Click to expand...
Charles has huge upside, but this offense & this injury has me projecting him as a Top 18-20RB, behind guys like Best & Bradshaw but above guys like Wells & Shonn Greene... Today some guy offered me Powell & Doucet for Charles, so I'm not seeing alot of optimism about his situation other than people still see his upside.
 
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There are too many variables to give anything close to an accurate prediction as too Charles' rank that far out.

 
He's going to be like Darren McFadden. Good back on a bad team gets hurt then when he falls to RB2 status the next year, he ends up being a stud.

 
'Rylenol said:
There was a fantastic article that detailed the production for various RBs that suffered ACL tears. It doesn't look good but guys have bounced back. If there's one thing that bodes well for Charles chances of coming back strong it's that the injury happened so early in the season. He's got a full year to recover. While he may not crack the top 5 in rankings I don't see how he doesn't place top 10.
Click to expand...
LinkI'm trying not to be overly pessimistic but I don't he'll ever be the same back and especially not next year.

 
'RhymesMcJuice said:
'Rylenol said:
There was a fantastic article that detailed the production for various RBs that suffered ACL tears. It doesn't look good but guys have bounced back. If there's one thing that bodes well for Charles chances of coming back strong it's that the injury happened so early in the season. He's got a full year to recover. While he may not crack the top 5 in rankings I don't see how he doesn't place top 10.
Click to expand...
LinkI'm trying not to be overly pessimistic but I don't he'll ever be the same back and especially not next year.
Click to expand...
I would agree, mainly because SO much of his game is predicated on speed. A Jamal Lewis can tear his ACL and come back and be different, yet effective but a guy like Charles seems to be a different story. Watching other players (non RBs as well as RBS), we see that the complete "burst" never seems to return until that second year removed from surgery. So when I look at charles next year I see a RB without ideal size and likely without elite speed and agility. I add to that there is a very real possibility that this team will either be experiencing some combination of running a new system, havign some new coaches, and/or having a new QB. I think Charles' ceiling next year will be about where Ahmad bradshaw was last year. Somewhere in that 15-20 range with some really good games and then some not; in other words, the points total will look better than the consistency.

 
'RhymesMcJuice said:
'Rylenol said:
There was a fantastic article that detailed the production for various RBs that suffered ACL tears. It doesn't look good but guys have bounced back. If there's one thing that bodes well for Charles chances of coming back strong it's that the injury happened so early in the season. He's got a full year to recover. While he may not crack the top 5 in rankings I don't see how he doesn't place top 10.
Click to expand...
LinkI'm trying not to be overly pessimistic but I don't he'll ever be the same back and especially not next year.
Click to expand...
This is a decent collection of data but their methodology is really, really poor and you can't really draw any conclusions from it. As someone else said, workhorse RBs regress quite a bit on average anyway. Also it's weird that they don't list any carry info or YPC info which is pretty important in the discussion.
 
'supersecretid said:
'RhymesMcJuice said:
'Rylenol said:
There was a fantastic article that detailed the production for various RBs that suffered ACL tears. It doesn't look good but guys have bounced back. If there's one thing that bodes well for Charles chances of coming back strong it's that the injury happened so early in the season. He's got a full year to recover. While he may not crack the top 5 in rankings I don't see how he doesn't place top 10.
Click to expand...
LinkI'm trying not to be overly pessimistic but I don't he'll ever be the same back and especially not next year.
Click to expand...
This is a decent collection of data but their methodology is really, really poor and you can't really draw any conclusions from it. As someone else said, workhorse RBs regress quite a bit on average anyway. Also it's weird that they don't list any carry info or YPC info which is pretty important in the discussion.
Click to expand...
Going back to 2000, these are the only guys who had substantial careers after the ACL injury:Jamal Lewis is the best case scenario since he came back the next year and had a 1300 yard season. He also went on to have many 1000 yard seasons after the ACL.

Edgerrin James also played the next season after his ACL but his YPC dropped from 4.4 to 3.6. He went on to have some good seasons but he was never the dominate player he was before the injury.

Ronnie Brown came back the year after his ACL injury to make the Pro Bowl. However, his YPC went from 5.1 to 4.4 and he never rushed for 1000 yards again. He was however having a great 2009 before he had a foot injury that ended his season.

In terms of size, the one who most closely matches Charles is James. I'm tempering my expectations for next year and don't think he'll have another 2010 season, but he should be able to produce some top-10 seasons starting in 2013.

 
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The problem is that sample sizes are so small. And the difference between 24 and 28 is a lifetime for a RB. The first means you're coming off an injury at 25. The 2nd means that you're coming off an injury when you'd already most likely be done anyhow - excepting the top end stud types.

 
The funny thing about some of these rankings is that he's almost still untouchable in dynasty. Owners seem content to let his sit on IR rather than take a trade where they're not getting anywhere near what a lot of guys paid to get him.

 
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