Futz's DNTL 2007 (1 Viewer)

[Futz]

1. Vince Young-- Don't believe the hype. Michael Vick without the baggage yada yada. I'm not hearing it. He has no established running game, no established receivers and he's only entering his 2nd year in the league. If you take him as a #1 you better follow him up with a sound established QB backup which will probably come at the expense of a key backup at another position. Let someone else make this mistake.

2. Edge James-- Some will blame his O-line. Some will blame the fact that he went to Arizona in general. I'm going to blame the fact that he's lost a step and just doesn't make people miss like he used to be able to do. I watched plenty of Arizona games last year and he has turned into 3 yards and a pile of dust. Arizona is a graveyard of RBs historically. Maybe it's mental because when you think you can't win or make the playoffs, why would you give that extra effort to fight for yards?? I'm not buying he's a late 2nd early 3rd round pick. Take a younger back with more potential over this tumbleweed.

3. Caddy Williams-- In half of his games played, he has averaged less than 4 yards a carry. He has only played two years. What does that say to me? Well, even on a bad team/offense, young legs should be able to propel you to a +4 yards per carry avg. if you have the ability to do so. I'm saying he's below average because he is way too tentative behind the line of scrimmage and gets knocked down on initial contact way too often. Is this what you are looking for on a week to week basis? Believe the hype of some of his big rookie season games if you wish, but I can't ignore the overall stats. He had big games vs. bad competition. He's not that good.

4. Plaxico Burress-- #8 in the FFtoday rankings is downright laughable. Are you kidding me? Will you take him over Roy Williams, TJ Houshmazilly, Larry Fitz, and Javon Walker???? NOoooooooo.... The guy is a headcase with an erratic QB to boot. I realize that FFToday should make some bold predictions to seperate themselves from the pack but come on. All of the above have little to no baggage with pretty good QBs throwing the rock. That's a stab in the dark.

5. Deion Branch-- I'm not sure where to even to begin about this guy. Talented? Yes. Way over touted? Absolutely. The guy has made a name for himself over one tremendous super bowl effort. Give him props because in thee game, he was money. However, if he's your #2 and possibly #3, you are losing money. Do you realize that he's never had a season of over 1,000 yards or even scored more than 5 TDs in a single season????? He's undersized and if you watched any of Seattle games last year, DJ Hackett was pwning Branch as far as targets were concerned and he wasnt' even a starter yet. He will be this year. Do the math.

6. Alge Crumpler-- He was Vick's safety blanket and now he's going to be relegated to hoping and praying that Joey Harrington will find his number. FFToday ranking on Alge is #3. Do you trust this? No way. Even Joey "check down" doesn't avoid the rush by firing to tight ends. Check the stats in Detown. He throws it away or to a RB who gets creamed in the backfield. Absolute farce of a ranking at this point.

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

Just some picks off the top of my head. Ga head and disagree but I'm sticking to it. I'm actually a FFToday groupie so ignore the FFToday banter if you wish but the facts remain the same.

There may be more.....

 

[Roc Pile]

perfect list

 

[Jackie Treehorn]

Only guy there I probably disagree with is Young, especially in leagues that don't penalize for interceptions. I know his receiving corps will be worse without Bennett, but it wasn't great last year anyway. Plus, I think with his style the TEs are the most important guys in the passing game, and Scaife and a healthy Troupe aren't bad. Sure, the running game is unproven and Travis Henry is gone, but one of Henry, Brown and White should at least be serviceable. I think the wins will be harder to come by, but with a year of experience and all the OTAs, I think Young has a good shot of being a top 12 Qb this year in fantasy.

 

[SSOG]

1. Vince Young-- Don't believe the hype. Michael Vick without the baggage yada yada. I'm not hearing it. He has no established running game, no established receivers and he's only entering his 2nd year in the league. If you take him as a #1 you better follow him up with a sound established QB backup which will probably come at the expense of a key backup at another position. Let someone else make this mistake.

2800 yards passing + 600 yards rushing = 4,000 yards passing. Just sayin'.

2. Edge James-- Some will blame his O-line. Some will blame the fact that he went to Arizona in general. I'm going to blame the fact that he's lost a step and just doesn't make people miss like he used to be able to do. I watched plenty of Arizona games last year and he has turned into 3 yards and a pile of dust. Arizona is a graveyard of RBs historically. Maybe it's mental because when you think you can't win or make the playoffs, why would you give that extra effort to fight for yards?? I'm not buying he's a late 2nd early 3rd round pick. Take a younger back with more potential over this tumbleweed.

How many RBs available in the 3rd round are almost a lock to get 300 carries next year? Even if he only averages 3.5 yards per carry, if you give him 350 carries and 20-30 catches you're still looking at 1300+ yards. A guaranteed workload is an incredibly powerful thing- to say NOTHING of the fact that he averaged 4.2 yards per carry from weeks 9-17 last year, which is actually ABOVE HIS CAREER AVERAGE.

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

His current ADP is #22, which means he doesn't cost a high end or middle 2nd round pick.

 

[AnonymousBob]

2. Edge James-- Some will blame his O-line. Some will blame the fact that he went to Arizona in general. I'm going to blame the fact that he's lost a step and just doesn't make people miss like he used to be able to do. I watched plenty of Arizona games last year and he has turned into 3 yards and a pile of dust. Arizona is a graveyard of RBs historically. Maybe it's mental because when you think you can't win or make the playoffs, why would you give that extra effort to fight for yards?? I'm not buying he's a late 2nd early 3rd round pick. Take a younger back with more potential over this tumbleweed.

4. Plaxico Burress-- #8 in the FFtoday rankings is downright laughable. Are you kidding me? Will you take him over Roy Williams, TJ Houshmazilly, Larry Fitz, and Javon Walker???? NOoooooooo.... The guy is a headcase with an erratic QB to boot. I realize that FFToday should make some bold predictions to seperate themselves from the pack but come on. All of the above have little to no baggage with pretty good QBs throwing the rock. That's a stab in the dark.

6. Alge Crumpler-- He was Vick's safety blanket and now he's going to be relegated to hoping and praying that Joey Harrington will find his number. FFToday ranking on Alge is #3. Do you trust this? No way. Even Joey "check down" doesn't avoid the rush by firing to tight ends. Check the stats in Detown. He throws it away or to a RB who gets creamed in the backfield. Absolute farce of a ranking at this point.

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

Just some picks off the top of my head. Ga head and disagree but I'm sticking to it. I'm actually a FFToday groupie so ignore the FFToday banter if you wish but the facts remain the same.

There may be more.....

As SSOG pointed out, Edge is going to get a lot of carries. I'd rather have a guy that does very little with a huge number of carries than a guy who rarely gets the ball but blows up when he does. Plaxico finished as the #15 wr last year. The team lost Tiki so they may very well score less but they could easily end up passing more.

Who did Harrington have at the TE position while in Detroit? If he locked onto Roy Williams because that was the only good weapon they had, that could be an argument for Crumpler. Who else does he have to lock onto? The over the hill Joe Horn? Roddy White? He makes JJ Stokes look like he has velcro hands.

Prior to last season, Portis had missed one game over a two year span for the Washington Redskins. During that time he averaged over 22 carries and 2 catches per game. One injury plagued year and he can't carry the load? IMO this guy is major value right now.

 

[Sea Leopard of Death]

Good effort.

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

5. Deion Branch-- I'm not sure where to even to begin about this guy. Talented? Yes. Way over touted? Absolutely. The guy has made a name for himself over one tremendous super bowl effort. Give him props because in thee game, he was money. However, if he's your #2 and possibly #3, you are losing money. Do you realize that he's never had a season of over 1,000 yards or even scored more than 5 TDs in a single season????? He's undersized and if you watched any of Seattle games last year, DJ Hackett was pwning Branch as far as targets were concerned and he wasnt' even a starter yet. He will be this year. Do the math.

I did the math and it doesn't add up.Some things to consider:

1-Branch had 725 yards and 4 TD's last season in just 13 starts.

2-Hasselbeck was only on the field throwing him the ball for 8.5 of those 13 starts.

3-Branch didn't have the benefit of training camp last year so he,

a) didn't know the offense

b) didn't get a chance to work on his chemistry with Hasselbeck

4-Branch was playing out of position. He was stuck playing the "X" position, which is on the weak side of the formation (non-tight-end side) and normally reserved for bigger, stronger receivers in the West Coast offense.

Now fast forward to this year:

1-Branch is finally comfortable with the playbook.

2-Branch and Hasselbeck have been putting in long hours working on their chemistry (both players stayed in Seattle during the off-season).

3-Jackson is gone and Branch is moving to the "Z" position, an outside spot on the tight-end side that will allow him to better utilize his speed and quickness.

4-The Seahawks offense figures to be much more high powered than it was last year when everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

If that doesn't convince you that Branch will put up excellent numbers this season, perhaps these quotes will:

"I expect his TDs to go way up," Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said.

"You'd watch one of our practices and it was almost unfair, Darrell Jackson was catching almost every ball," Hasselbeck said. "It's how the [West Coast] system was designed and you look back at those who played there in Green Bay and San Francisco: Robert Brooks, Sterling Sharpe, Antonio Freeman, Jerry Rice. I think there are certain plays Mike Holmgren likes to call because it reminds him of good plays when he was coaching in Green Bay and San Francisco. He loves to say, 'Z-in.' He doesn't love to say 'X-in' as much."

Offensive coordinator Gil Haskell said that it's unfair to expect any player to catch a lot of passes based purely on his position. He pointed out that, while Jackson caught a lot of balls as the flanker, there have also been also plenty of receptions that went to slot receiver Bobby Engram and Seattle's split ends.

But Haskell did admit that a receiver with Branch's talent can really thrive as a flanker in the West Coast system.

"In this position, if you're good, you'll catch a lot," Haskell said. "With the 49ers, Jerry Rice caught a lot of passes. Sterling Sharpe in Green Bay. When I was with the Panthers, Muhsin Muhammad had a great year.

"It's important to (have) a go-to receiver or a leading receiver," coach Mike Holmgren said. " Typically, our flanker sees the ball a little bit more. Deion's been fine in practice, and I'm hopeful that he'll be that guy."

You couldn't wipe the smile off of Branch's face when talking about how much more comfortable he is now because he totally understands the Seattle playbook and had a full off-season with Hasselbeck under his belt. And the rapport was on display during practice as the pair hooked up on several pretty plays. But what was most impressive was how the duo stayed after practice to work for half an hour.

I fully expect Branch to finish the season with 6-9 TD's and close to 1,200 rec. yards.

 

[Futz]

2800 yards passing + 600 yards rushing = 4,000 yards passing. Just sayin'.

True but his TDs are not going to be up to par IMO. Henry helped make him effective and without that I believe the offense is going to be stymied too often. Just sayin.

His current ADP is #22, which means he doesn't cost a high end or middle 2nd round pick.

Forgive me if my math is a bit off but #22 ADP which is the 'average' of where he gets drafted means he's going earlier than #22 a lot of the time and I'm saying that's a reach.

 

[Futz]

Some things to consider:

1-Branch had 725 yards and 4 TD's last season in just 13 starts.

2-Hasselbeck was only on the field throwing him the ball for 8.5 of those 13 starts.

3-Branch didn't have the benefit of training camp last year so he,

a) didn't know the offense

b) didn't get a chance to work on his chemistry with Hasselbeck

4-Branch was playing out of position. He was stuck playing the "X" position, which is on the weak side of the formation (non-tight-end side) and normally reserved for bigger, stronger receivers in the West Coast offense.

Now fast forward to this year:

1-Branch is finally comfortable with the playbook.

2-Branch and Hasselbeck have been putting in long hours working on their chemistry (both players stayed in Seattle during the off-season).

3-Jackson is gone and Branch is moving to the "Z" position, an outside spot on the tight-end side that will allow him to better utilize his speed and quickness.

4-The Seahawks offense figures to be much more high powered than it was last year when everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

If that doesn't convince you that Branch will put up excellent numbers this season, perhaps these quotes will:

You bring up some great points but Hasselbeck was locked onto DJ Hackett last year. He's got great size and is extremely slippery in the open field. Branch reminds me of Santana Moss. Very nice skill set but he's limited due to size. He can be covered inside the redzone which limits his scoring opps and he's not real effective against a physical corner. He's a very good #2 type of guy to have around. I just don't agree he can be the focus of an offense. There will be plenty of receivers who can go 800 yards and 5 TDs. Why take him in the 4th or 5th round when you can get similiar #'s out of Kevin Curtis in the 8th or 9th?

 

[Futz]

As SSOG pointed out, Edge is going to get a lot of carries. I'd rather have a guy that does very little with a huge number of carries than a guy who rarely gets the ball but blows up when he does.

I can't argue against the amount of carries. He's going to be the guy come hell or high water but I don't think he can do it anymore. I just think he'll break down under that workload and I'd be better off with the Marion Barbers/Thomas Jones/Cedric Bensons of the world who' ADP are falling behind him.

Who did Harrington have at the TE position while in Detroit? If he locked onto Roy Williams because that was the only good weapon they had, that could be an argument for Crumpler. Who else does he have to lock onto? The over the hill Joe Horn? Roddy White? He makes JJ Stokes look like he has velcro hands.

The reason Harrington is inefficient is because he's not very good on short 'touch' type of passes. He has about a 57% career completion percentage for a reason. That's where Crumpler comes into play. Harrington had Marcus Pollard who used to be quite a viable target in Indy and they just failed to have any chemistry in Detown.

 

[FFdork]

Except for Branch and Crumpler, your list could be alternately be titled,"Guys To Buy Low" because a lot of people are thinking along the same lines.

As some guy around here named Joe or something like that likes to say, all players have value. Edge went at pick 34 (!) in a mock I did two days ago. I would love to be able to pick him there.

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

Some things to consider:

1-Branch had 725 yards and 4 TD's last season in just 13 starts.

2-Hasselbeck was only on the field throwing him the ball for 8.5 of those 13 starts.

3-Branch didn't have the benefit of training camp last year so he,

a) didn't know the offense

b) didn't get a chance to work on his chemistry with Hasselbeck

4-Branch was playing out of position. He was stuck playing the "X" position, which is on the weak side of the formation (non-tight-end side) and normally reserved for bigger, stronger receivers in the West Coast offense.

Now fast forward to this year:

1-Branch is finally comfortable with the playbook.

2-Branch and Hasselbeck have been putting in long hours working on their chemistry (both players stayed in Seattle during the off-season).

3-Jackson is gone and Branch is moving to the "Z" position, an outside spot on the tight-end side that will allow him to better utilize his speed and quickness.

4-The Seahawks offense figures to be much more high powered than it was last year when everything that could go wrong, did go wrong.

If that doesn't convince you that Branch will put up excellent numbers this season, perhaps these quotes will:

You bring up some great points but Hasselbeck was locked onto DJ Hackett last year. He's got great size and is extremely slippery in the open field. Branch reminds of Santana Moss. Very nice skill set but he's limited due to size. He can be covered inside the redzone which limits his scoring opps and he's not real effective against a physical corner. He's a very good #2 type of guy to have around. I just don't agree he can be the focus of an offense. There will be plenty of receivers who can go 800 yards and 5 TDs. Why take him in the 4th or 5th round when you can get similiar #'s out of Kevin Curtis in the 8th or 9th?

You're dinging Branch unfairly. He didn't know the offense, and he was playing out of position last year. You can't expect a tiny guy like Branch to thrive playing at the X spot when it's a position that requires a big, strong guy. Hackett will man that spot now, and Branch will move to the Z position where he belongs.I'd also argue that you're dwelling too much on his career numbers in New England and not taking into account how encouraging his numbers last year in Seattle actually were. 725 yards and four TD's in just 13 starts last year is better than it sounds when you consider that he didn't know the playbook, Hasselbeck was injured, they had no time to work on their chemistry, and he was playing out of position...So keeping all of those significant things in mind, why is that you're only penciling him in for ~800 yards and 5 TD's?

And while your perception of Branch may be as just a very good #2 type of guy, the reality of the situation is that Branch is stepping into a role in Holmgren's west coast offense that ALWAYS produces the #1 WR. As Hasselbeck said in that earlier quote, it's almost unfair how much Holmgren's offense favors the Z WR.

And just to clarify, I think very highly of Hackett. His upside is off of the charts,and he's clearly the better red zone/big play threat. That said, he's not even going to come close to catching Branch in terms of receptions or yards. And while everyone seems to be dismissing Burleson, I will say this--the battle between Hackett and Burleson is a lot closer than people think. Hackett's not going to lose the job to Burleson, but Burleson has done enough to warrant a lot more playing time than he had last year, and that extra playing time will cut into Hackett's production more than it will anyone else. Alos, Holmgren has been stressing all summer that the only thing that he knows for sure is that "Deion Branch will be the starting flanker and that Bobby Engram will play."

Bottom line: Branch is a sure thing.

 

[stanmarino13]

Id disagree on Crumpler...Joey hit Randy McMicheal 48 times in 11 games last year...Id say Alge > Randy, and Alge only had 56 rec's all of last year...I would say less redzone success with Joey, but i wouldnt expect much less in receptions or yards...Id be more worried about alge's surgery hes tryin to recover from, then Joey hitting him.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

When are people going to stop using the "he doesn't have good receivers" argument against running QBs? When league rules changes to make all yards equal in scoring, then you can use this argument. Until then, a QB who puts up 500-600 rushing yards is adding the equivalent of 1250 to 1500 passing yards to his total. Even if he put up some ridiculously low passing yardage like 2,000 he'd still be equal to the 3,200 to 3,500 passing yards guys.

It's not about how many passing yards you have, it's about how many total points you score.

 

[Futz]

When are people going to stop using the "he doesn't have good receivers" argument against running QBs? When league rules changes to make all yards equal in scoring, then you can use this argument. Until then, a QB who puts up 500-600 rushing yards is adding the equivalent of 1250 to 1500 passing yards to his total. Even if he put up some ridiculously low passing yardage like 2,000 he'd still be equal to the 3,200 to 3,500 passing yards guys.It's not about how many passing yards you have, it's about how many total points you score.

I appeciate your thoughts on the yardage aspect but I think I clearly stated in a secondary post that he's going to struggle to score TDs because he just doesn't have the supporting cast to get him there.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Bottom line: Branch is a sure thing.

Considering he has never had 1000 yards receiving and never had over 5 TDs, I don't think he is a lock for more than a high end WR3.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

So one year in which he suffered shoulder and hand injuries outweighs 2004 and 2005 in which he managed to handle 765 touches while only missing one game?Portis is a stud workhorse RB. Until last year, his lowest touch numbers for a season were the 306 he had in his rookie year when he didn't start until week 3. He has always been a 20+ touch/game player, including 2004 and 2005 when he was on the same Redskins team with Betts. He won't turn 26 until September, and is just entering his prime.

Betts is a good backup NFL RB, no more, no less. He'll see some work, but the split will be 75/25 in favor of Portis, just like it was in 2004 and 2005. The short-term memory of the fantasy world is truly amazing at times.

 

[Futz]

Id disagree on Crumpler...Joey hit Randy McMicheal 48 times in 11 games last year...Id say Alge > Randy, and Alge only had 56 rec's all of last year...I would say less redzone success with Joey, but i wouldnt expect much less in receptions or yards...Id be more worried about alge's surgery hes tryin to recover from, then Joey hitting him.

Good post. Valid points.

 

[H.K.]

Two others for the do not touch list:

Brandon Jacobs

Javon Walker

 

[Futz]

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

So one year in which he suffered shoulder and hand injuries outweighs 2004 and 2005 in which he managed to handle 765 touches while only missing one game?Portis is a stud workhorse RB. Until last year, his lowest touch numbers for a season were the 306 he had in his rookie year when he didn't start until week 3. He has always been a 20+ touch/game player, including 2004 and 2005 when he was on the same Redskins team with Betts. He won't turn 26 until September, and is just entering his prime.

Betts is a good backup NFL RB, no more, no less. He'll see some work, but the split will be 75/25 in favor of Portis, just like it was in 2004 and 2005. The short-term memory of the fantasy world is truly amazing at times.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't he have 3 seperate injuries last year after those 765 touches? He's already injured this year. :dunno: As I said, I think he's a very good back but Betts proved to be quite invaluable last year and I just don't see Portis being a workhorse any longer. Washington would be better off if he weren't.

 

[Futz]

Two others for the do not touch list:Brandon JacobsJavon Walker

I totally disagree. Javon is in a very good position to exceed what ended up being a great year considering he was post operative just a year prior. Cutler will be twice the QB of that noodle armed Plummer and add in Henry to keep the defense honest. Whew. I'm loving the Javon pick in the early 3rd.Brandon Jacobs will be huge if he's handled correctly. He can't be a 20 + carry back with his style of running. He just won't last IMO but if the Giants keep his total touches with receptions in the 15-20 range,I think he could be quite effective. Deuce McCallister esque with maybe a few more TDs.

 

[On The Rocks]

Two others for the do not touch list:Brandon JacobsJavon Walker

oooooooo Bubba....I am lovin' Javon Walker this year!

 

[JAA]

agree with all except Alge and Portis. If anything they are both undervalued against others at thier respective position

 

[BroadwayG]

I have everyone in the NFL on my do not touch unless value dictates list.

 

[Sabertooth]

Branch is 1 inch short and 10 pounds heavier than Robert Brooks was. His size won't be his downfall in Seattle.

 

[On The Rocks]

His current ADP is #22, which means he doesn't cost a high end or middle 2nd round pick.

#22 is exceptional value. I would be very happy getting Portis with the 2nd spot in the third round.

 

[Futz]

Branch is 1 inch short and 10 pounds heavier than Robert Brooks was. His size won't be his downfall in Seattle.

I really don't care if he has David Boston's frame. IMO he gets handled at the line of scrimmage sometimes and isn't real effective at "winning" catches. That's what keeps in numbers down.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

1. Vince Young-- Don't believe the hype. Michael Vick without the baggage yada yada.

VY is 100X more committed to improving his understanding of the passing offense, working with his receivers all offseason to build timing and chemistry, working on his reads, etc, etc, etc. In a word, he is a WINNER. Vick's game plateaued and he was STILL an elite fantasy QB - what do you think will happen with Young, one of the most dedicated players in the game? Every single year of his career, VY has greatly improved from one year to the next...Nice post, and nice topic, but imo comparing Young to Vick is lazy analysis.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Two others for the do not touch list:

Brandon Jacobs

Javon Walker

At this point, with the information we now have, and with Marshall's injury issues, this has got to be schtick. HAS to be.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't he have 3 seperate injuries last year after those 765 touches? He's already injured this year. :dunno: As I said, I think he's a very good back but Betts proved to be quite invaluable last year and I just don't see Portis being a workhorse any longer. Washington would be better off if he weren't.

He seperated his shoulder on that vicious hit in the preseason, then broke his hand mid-season. If those were knee/leg problems, I'd be more worried. He has tendinitis in his knee now, but everything that I have read seems to indicate that this is pretty common among NFL players and not all that big a deal. I do think that it is more of a legitimate cause for concern than the stuff last year, though, which really seems to be coincidental. It isn't as if he really needs the reps in camp and the preseason.Betts played well last year, absolutely, but he also benefitted from the offense there, and particularly the o-line, coming together down the stretch. Watching him play last year (and as a long-term dynasty Portis owner watching Portis), it is pretty clear, to me at least, that Portis is a superior player in all facets of the game except receiving ability. Portis will give the Skins the best chance to win, and he has proven that he can handle a large workload. One year and two freak injuries to his shoulder and hand don't change that IMO. Betts will likely get more receptions than Portis, but Portis will see 300+ carries, and the vast majority of the goal line work. He represents HUGE value anywhere after the first round this year, IMO.

 

[SproutDaddy]

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

So one year in which he suffered shoulder and hand injuries outweighs 2004 and 2005 in which he managed to handle 765 touches while only missing one game?Portis is a stud workhorse RB. Until last year, his lowest touch numbers for a season were the 306 he had in his rookie year when he didn't start until week 3. He has always been a 20+ touch/game player, including 2004 and 2005 when he was on the same Redskins team with Betts. He won't turn 26 until September, and is just entering his prime.

Betts is a good backup NFL RB, no more, no less. He'll see some work, but the split will be 75/25 in favor of Portis, just like it was in 2004 and 2005. The short-term memory of the fantasy world is truly amazing at times.

This board is filled with opinions that people are "injury prone" after suffering their first major injury. Portis was injured making a tackle after the QB threw an interception. That says alot to me about the kind of player he is. I see him staying up to par of his stud status. He has always produced. Sure his #'s went down his first year he arrived in Washington, but it wasn't anything to cause extreme concern.

 

[Futz]

1. Vince Young-- Don't believe the hype. Michael Vick without the baggage yada yada.

VY is 100X more committed to improving his understanding of the passing offense, working with his receivers all offseason to build timing and chemistry, working on his reads, etc, etc, etc. In a word, he is a WINNER. Vick's game plateaued and he was STILL an elite fantasy QB - what do you think will happen with Young, one of the most dedicated players in the game? Every single year of his career, VY has greatly improved from one year to the next...Nice post, and nice topic, but imo comparing Young to Vick is lazy analysis.

For the record, I wasn't comparing VY to Vick. I was referring to the chatter that you hear about the comparble athletic ability. Hence the "yada yada yada". Anyhow, VY can certainly be a very good fantasy QB in time. I just don't see it this year. All the work ethic in the world doesn't translate into success if you don't have the surrounding cast. Ask Steve Young.

 

[Futz]

7. Clinton Portis-- He's a stud. I'm not going to deny that. What did Washington find out last year? Well..... they realize he can't stay on the field anymore without injury and best case scenario for him is that he's in a RBBC with Betts. So think the way the Washington brass will. If we want to succeed, we have to find a way to limit his carries in order to avoid injury. What good is he to them if he can't stay on the field? RBBC is the answer and it will limit him to numbers along the line of Deuce McCallister at best. Not bad, but not worth a high end or middle 2nd round pick. Let the Lt/Sj owener take a flyer on him because he's no better than the high end RBBC picks.

So one year in which he suffered shoulder and hand injuries outweighs 2004 and 2005 in which he managed to handle 765 touches while only missing one game?Portis is a stud workhorse RB. Until last year, his lowest touch numbers for a season were the 306 he had in his rookie year when he didn't start until week 3. He has always been a 20+ touch/game player, including 2004 and 2005 when he was on the same Redskins team with Betts. He won't turn 26 until September, and is just entering his prime.

Betts is a good backup NFL RB, no more, no less. He'll see some work, but the split will be 75/25 in favor of Portis, just like it was in 2004 and 2005. The short-term memory of the fantasy world is truly amazing at times.

This board is filled with opinions that people are "injury prone" after suffering their first major injury. Portis was injured making a tackle after the QB threw an interception. That says alot to me about the kind of player he is. I see him staying up to par of his stud status. He has always produced. Sure his #'s went down his first year he arrived in Washington, but it wasn't anything to cause extreme concern.

Knee/shoulder/hand/knee againAt what point do you call somebody an injury risk?

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

the anti-Javon Walker stuff is not shtick. I owned him last year and enjoyed him tremendously..but his stat splits b/t Plummer and Cutler cannot be ignored. Denver was having great trouble moving the ball in the early part of the season and during that time Plummer was locked onto Walker almost exclusively, and there are several threads in the pool that point this out. Cutler came on and spread it around.

Im not down on Walker per se, i just dont think he represents value at his ADP, and i dont think his success will be as automatic as those who support him.

 

[H.K.]

the anti-Javon Walker stuff is not shtick. I owned him last year and enjoyed him tremendously..but his stat splits b/t Plummer and Cutler cannot be ignored. Denver was having great trouble moving the ball in the early part of the season and during that time Plummer was locked onto Walker almost exclusively, and there are several threads in the pool that point this out. Cutler came on and spread it around.

Post of the year!

 

[Fodasme69]

the anti-Javon Walker stuff is not shtick. I owned him last year and enjoyed him tremendously..but his stat splits b/t Plummer and Cutler cannot be ignored. Denver was having great trouble moving the ball in the early part of the season and during that time Plummer was locked onto Walker almost exclusively, and there are several threads in the pool that point this out. Cutler came on and spread it around.

Post of the year! :(

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Two others for the do not touch list:Brandon JacobsJavon Walker

 

[-OZ-]

the anti-Javon Walker stuff is not shtick. I owned him last year and enjoyed him tremendously..but his stat splits b/t Plummer and Cutler cannot be ignored. Denver was having great trouble moving the ball in the early part of the season and during that time Plummer was locked onto Walker almost exclusively, and there are several threads in the pool that point this out. Cutler came on and spread it around.

Post of the year!

Yeah, we get it. The backup QB practiced with the 2nd team WRs and TE and got comfortable with them, that's great.It's 2007, he's practicing with Walker. Walker is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. Smart QBs utilize their talented WRs. Cutler is smart... do I need to continue?Marshall has been injured, as has Scheffler. Who do you think Cutler is getting comfortable with now?Walker is a STUD, currently drafted as the #10 WR. Exactly where he should be.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

H.K.'s Walker projection:

Javon will be the single biggest disappointment for FFers in 2007:

54 recepts 711 yards 4 TD's

I sure hope you have adjusted your thoughts.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

At what point do you call somebody an injury risk?

Well, for me, it certainly takes more than one rough season out of five.

 

[Fullback Fro]

the anti-Javon Walker stuff is not shtick. I owned him last year and enjoyed him tremendously..but his stat splits b/t Plummer and Cutler cannot be ignored. Denver was having great trouble moving the ball in the early part of the season and during that time Plummer was locked onto Walker almost exclusively, and there are several threads in the pool that point this out. Cutler came on and spread it around.

Post of the year!

:X

http://youtube.com/watch?v=p2aXOBGMUd4

 

[SSOG]

Two others for the do not touch list:

Brandon Jacobs

Javon Walker

At this point, with the information we now have, and with Marshall's injury issues, this has got to be schtick. HAS to be.

The fact that it's an H.K. post didn't immediately tip you off?