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FWP - Week 17 vs Baltimore's #2 Rush Defense (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Limp Ditka
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
Do Reuben Droughns, Wali Lundy & Ciatrick Fason qualify as "pretty good alternatives"?
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Me too, except I have to choose between FWP, MoJo, and AGreen....I still don't know. Brown was the leading rusher for Miami in their week 2 game against Buffalo. He was held to 70 yards and no TDs. Has the situation changed enough for Miami's O and Buffalo's D that the 2nd stringer will be able to exceed those week 2 totals?Because Buffalo is giving up almost 140 yards on the ground a game and he shredded the Patriots defense last week...Plus Parker isn't as good on the road...I am curious why you would bench FWP for Sammy Morris this week?
omally
Footballguy
Miami is a much better team than they were in week 2.
FWP @ CAR
A.Green v DET
T.Bell @ AZ
Start 2. A freakin' crap shoot.
T.Bell looks good given his 116 yards / 4 catch performance against SD and his 133 yards yards against SEA - it is clear that Shanahan thinks he needs T.Bell going strong to keep the heat off Cutler. A TD wouldn't hurt but, in a high performance league, the massive yards make him safe.
I think A.Green is actually the safe play as well. With a horrific Lions defense, Ahman could run for an upside of 110 and a limited downside of 80 -- both with a TD; or if GB is airing it out (like they did against DET in week 3), then Ahman will pick up a bunch of reception catches/yards and a possible reception TD.
FWP is the wildcard. His upside is 125+ but his downside is 40. Over the last 4 games, from a FF points allowed by RB perspective, CAR is in the lower (toughest) third of the league. FWP's got this "away thing" going. CAR is still in the hunt for the payoffs. To many "..." 's.
I think I will play it safe. FWP goes to the bench.
A.Green v DET
T.Bell @ AZ
Start 2. A freakin' crap shoot.
T.Bell looks good given his 116 yards / 4 catch performance against SD and his 133 yards yards against SEA - it is clear that Shanahan thinks he needs T.Bell going strong to keep the heat off Cutler. A TD wouldn't hurt but, in a high performance league, the massive yards make him safe.
I think A.Green is actually the safe play as well. With a horrific Lions defense, Ahman could run for an upside of 110 and a limited downside of 80 -- both with a TD; or if GB is airing it out (like they did against DET in week 3), then Ahman will pick up a bunch of reception catches/yards and a possible reception TD.
FWP is the wildcard. His upside is 125+ but his downside is 40. Over the last 4 games, from a FF points allowed by RB perspective, CAR is in the lower (toughest) third of the league. FWP's got this "away thing" going. CAR is still in the hunt for the payoffs. To many "..." 's.
I think I will play it safe. FWP goes to the bench.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
This sure didn't turn out good. FWP defied the numbers and put up another great game on Sunday.
I got lucky and survived benching him in favor of Tatum Bell and SA and will be playing in the Super Bowl in the league I am a FWP owner.
In the league I went up against the FWP owner, it appears that he used the same "logic" and benched him in favor of SA and Dillon. Unlike me, he didn't survive.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Do not bench FWP vs Balt this week, I think Pitt plays their asssssesss off this week, & win & he does just fine
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
I probably don't have a choice.I'd much rather start him against Balt than SA agaisnt San DiegoTatum Bell is unstartable in a SB week after what happened in Arizona on SundaySo I'll probably start Parker with either MBIII or Chester Taylor.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
The Steelers are playing much better since the last meeting. Last time the Steelers were manhandled in every facet of the game. I doubt that will happen again, especially with the game in Pittsburgh. In any case it is hard to bench Parker no matter what the matchup is.
I didn't see the Ravens game this week but it looks like Baltimore sustained some injuries. McNair went down because his hand was spiked but also cornerback Samari Rolle separated his shoulder and cornerback Corey Ivy sustained a concussion.
I am not sure how serious those injuries are but I guess there is a chance the Ravens might sit them out since they've clinched the division.
I didn't see the Ravens game this week but it looks like Baltimore sustained some injuries. McNair went down because his hand was spiked but also cornerback Samari Rolle separated his shoulder and cornerback Corey Ivy sustained a concussion.
I am not sure how serious those injuries are but I guess there is a chance the Ravens might sit them out since they've clinched the division.
Pnishthm
Footballguy
This is a tough matchup for Parker but you'd have to think the Steelers will be commited to running the ball since Roth took 9 sacks last meeting. As long as the Steelers don't get behind early and have to change their gameplan, Parker should be able to pound away until he starts getting some room. I have to start two between Parker, Alexander, M-Drew and MBlll. I'm actually leaning towards sitting Alexander if Drew is not injured and Taylor is not able to play. I am starting Parker no matter.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
I am also thinking that.
#1DetroitFan
Footballguy
It was between FWP and Bush in week 15. I decided to go with the horse who got me to the playoffs. It was a Very Good decision. Since it is Bush or FWP in week 16 I am planning on going with FWP again. Since my opponent will play the Baltimore Defense it could be a hughe play. After seeing the Brownies score on the Baltimore D I think that Pitt can do the same. I am hoping for another good week from FWP!
I agree -
But he got me here....and Pitt is playing some good football since Balt thrashed them - granted it's against weak teams but they hurting them.
They will definitely be playing hard to get revenge - and they are at home....and they are not mathematically eliminated.
I will likely stay with him as I need a big day - i.e. a long TD which he has a better chance of doing. If you just need 6-10 points I'd go w/ the M Barber type.
But he got me here....and Pitt is playing some good football since Balt thrashed them - granted it's against weak teams but they hurting them.
They will definitely be playing hard to get revenge - and they are at home....and they are not mathematically eliminated.
I will likely stay with him as I need a big day - i.e. a long TD which he has a better chance of doing. If you just need 6-10 points I'd go w/ the M Barber type.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Hard to get goal line looks when there's only 2 plays from inside the 5 and one was a 4th and goal from the 1 after the Holmes TD got reviewed.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
Barring a complete 180 in my thinking between now and Sunday, I'll be benching him for Marion Barber.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
This is the big news. I didn't hear Cowher's press conference so I don't know who is going to start in place of him but I would bet it is probably Trai Essex. This is not a good thing.Starks has played pretty well this season. His absence is going to negatively impact both FWP and the pass protection for ther Steelers. On the otehr hand they might throw a few more screens Parker's way.
It's a tough call - he can hit a home run against anybody...That D is intimidating - but if I had of benched him this week I'd be watching the Super BowlI think I may decide based on if McNair plays. I am almost certain Boller will give him a lot of opportunities.
I agree you have too start the guy who got you here. If it doesn't work so be it, but nothing leaves a more bitter taste than benching your usual starter and then him going off.Dance with who brung ya.
He speaks the truth. I benched Gore at last minute for J Lewis this week (also have SA and didn't want to squander them both in a 7-3 monsoon). I would have won by a point. I'm expecting a decent day based on the home field and revenge theory.I agree you have too start the guy who got you here. If it doesn't work so be it, but nothing leaves a more bitter taste than benching your usual starter and then him going off.Dance with who brung ya.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
Ok, already rethinking this. This is going to be a long week.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Great response. Do I like the prospect of facing the Tomlinson and Manning owner in the Super Bowl? Not really. But 10 other guys would love to have my spot, so I'm going to give it my all. And to stay sort-of on topic, it's now or never for the Steelers. Jax lost, Bengals lost, Chiefs lost. When they take the field, their game will definitely mean something. And the following week is at Cincinnati. Throw in the revenge factor, and I think the team will have a playoff mindset. That doesn't mean they'll win or Parker will be great, but you're getting a motivated running back on a motivated team against a division rival who embarrassed them a few weeks ago. And they're the Super Bowl champs playing at home. That's not a bad start in week 16.
I plan on starting FWP with SJackson for the superbowl. If Addai can't go that might make Dominic Rhodes more attractive but I still can't see me benching FWP for a Addai'less Rhodes. My only other option is WDunn so it looks like FWP will be in my lineup.
BTW, I'm also a Steelers fan so that makes it even more emotional.
BTW, I'm also a Steelers fan so that makes it even more emotional.
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Cajun Heat
Footballguy
Well, we know that tough Defenses can shut him down, which is a killer for your Superbowl. Plus, in my case, I've also got Jones-Drew as an option (LJ is my RB1), which is making it really difficult for me.
Of course, as has been said, you gots to dance with them what brung ya. Lord knows, I've been burned enough times in the past when I've tried to get cute by benching a regular starter b/c he had a "bad" matchup.
Another plus for Willie is that contrary to the preseason conventional wisdom, we've seen him (1) involved in the passing game via screens, which is helpful against a D like Balt and (2) get goal-line carries. At the end of the day, he's just been too studly to bench.
Of course, as has been said, you gots to dance with them what brung ya. Lord knows, I've been burned enough times in the past when I've tried to get cute by benching a regular starter b/c he had a "bad" matchup.
Another plus for Willie is that contrary to the preseason conventional wisdom, we've seen him (1) involved in the passing game via screens, which is helpful against a D like Balt and (2) get goal-line carries. At the end of the day, he's just been too studly to bench.
Resident A
Footballguy
I am starting FWP.
I have to choose 2 of FWP, Chester, & Edge. FWP is the only sure thing for me at this point.
I have to choose 2 of FWP, Chester, & Edge. FWP is the only sure thing for me at this point.
mad sweeney
Footballguy
I'm thinking similar thoughts on MJD vs FWP as RB2. Helluva choice but sticking with Parker has worked for me all season, of course Drew is a machine and if he's the #1 back.
Well it's certainly a no -brainer if your other options are slim. Start him - he's been a tremendous back all year - no tweaked knee - fighting hard every play - all that. And he has most definitewly gotten better through the year. You are watching a one dimensional speedster become a pretty legit top RB.
But for me (Duece/JLewis/A Green) or the OP (MJD) it's a tough call. These are quality backs w/ better matchups who are starting for many a Super Bowl team who either draftted Duece late as a #2 and are profiting or picked up/handcuffed MJD.
I think I'll just play the homer role and start him. I couldn't live w/ myself if I bench him and it's the difference. I could live w/ myself if I don't and Duece outscores him.
But for me (Duece/JLewis/A Green) or the OP (MJD) it's a tough call. These are quality backs w/ better matchups who are starting for many a Super Bowl team who either draftted Duece late as a #2 and are profiting or picked up/handcuffed MJD.
I think I'll just play the homer role and start him. I couldn't live w/ myself if I bench him and it's the difference. I could live w/ myself if I don't and Duece outscores him.
Ozymandias
Footballguy
Last four games, the Ravens gave up the following rushing yardage:
Week 12: 22 yards (FWP)
Week 13: 68 yards
Week 14: 120 yards (LJ)
Week 15: 67 yards
No TD's in that span. 5 rushing td's in the year.
I understand that you dance with who brung you, but that is a tall mountain to climb.
Week 12: 22 yards (FWP)
Week 13: 68 yards
Week 14: 120 yards (LJ)
Week 15: 67 yards
No TD's in that span. 5 rushing td's in the year.
I understand that you dance with who brung you, but that is a tall mountain to climb.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I am mighty worried about the injury to RT Max Starks. With Starks out, the Steelers will start either Trai Essex (the backup LT) or rookie Willie Colon who hasn't played a down this season. The Ravens are definitely going to exploit that.
I expect FWP to be running left to a lot and I am pretty sure the Ravens are going to expect that too.
I expect FWP to be running left to a lot and I am pretty sure the Ravens are going to expect that too.
Browns Rule!
Footballguy
I have to choose between him and Betts
Londo
Footballguy
It's definitely a tough matchup, but I think FWP has more than earned the benefit of the doubt. (At least he's playing at home). I could see him having a mediocre day, but I am hopeful for at least 10 points. He could easily break off a 40+ yard TD on any given run after all.
In the end, I would rather lose with FWP in my lineup, than take a chance on Ron Dayne, or some other lesser player with a better matchup. Dayne may easily outperform Willie, but I couldn't forgive myself if I made the swap and lost because of it.
In the end, I would rather lose with FWP in my lineup, than take a chance on Ron Dayne, or some other lesser player with a better matchup. Dayne may easily outperform Willie, but I couldn't forgive myself if I made the swap and lost because of it.
I believe we have to say FWP is a stud guys...however here is my scenario:
For the Superbowl:
I have LT and FWP (really no other options with Caddy and Jacobs)
my opponenent has SJax and ... no one (Maroney, Deangelo W., C. Houston).
My predicament is: I believe he is going to pick up Rhodes off the WW, if he does this he HAS to start him. I was thinking of picking Rhodes up and starting him relegating my opponent to start one of the 3 mentioned above...
Is this playing scared? obviosuly if Addai is listed as OUT this may be a favourable manouver.
what do yoiu guys think, anyone else in a situation like this?
For the Superbowl:
I have LT and FWP (really no other options with Caddy and Jacobs)
my opponenent has SJax and ... no one (Maroney, Deangelo W., C. Houston).
My predicament is: I believe he is going to pick up Rhodes off the WW, if he does this he HAS to start him. I was thinking of picking Rhodes up and starting him relegating my opponent to start one of the 3 mentioned above...
Is this playing scared? obviosuly if Addai is listed as OUT this may be a favourable manouver.
what do yoiu guys think, anyone else in a situation like this?
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
In the same boat as many. Have LT and Turner, and SA and FWP. LT is a no brainer I guess - as I haven't seen anything to tell me he isn't playing. Yet. So it comes down to SA or FWP, or if I want to get real crazy, Turner.
Right now, I'm going with LT and FWP. But I'll go back and forrth with it right until I have to lock my lineup.
Right now, I'm going with LT and FWP. But I'll go back and forrth with it right until I have to lock my lineup.
cgcloutier
Footballguy
This is tough....I have FWP and Hines Ward, but I also have Balt Def. I picked up Ron Dayne, and may start him against Indy. I really see Balt def shutting him down. Balt Def has been giving up some yardage through the air, so I do have hope for Ward.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
For Ward to do well the Steelers are going to have to keep some TEs and/or RBs in to give Big Ben some time. Roethlisberger was sacked 9 times in the last meeting and that cannot be repeated if the Steelers are to have any chance of winning. Ic ould see a lot of screens this week too.FWP might actually have more receiving yards this week than rushing yards.
The_Man
Footballguy
I'm not an FWP owner, but I am a Ravens homer. In my opinion, you should sit Willie if you have a viable alternative.
Yes, he's had a great season and a couple of great recent games. But that doesn't mean anything for this week. They Ravens have great team speed and are sure tacklers. Speed guys are usually of limited effectiveness against them.
Their team speed and awareness also make it virtually impossible to screen pass against them. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are the #1 D vs. RBs catching the ball, by a very wide margin.
Look at FWP's history vs. Baltimore. Earlier this year he had 10 carries for 22 yards and 2 rec. for 15. Last year he went 14 for 63 with 2 rec. for 18 and 18 carries for 59 yards with 2 rec. for 22 yards.
I think a resonable projection for FWP will be 85 total yards and no scores. If you have someone that projects better than that, I'd start him.
Yes, he's had a great season and a couple of great recent games. But that doesn't mean anything for this week. They Ravens have great team speed and are sure tacklers. Speed guys are usually of limited effectiveness against them.
Their team speed and awareness also make it virtually impossible to screen pass against them. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are the #1 D vs. RBs catching the ball, by a very wide margin.
Look at FWP's history vs. Baltimore. Earlier this year he had 10 carries for 22 yards and 2 rec. for 15. Last year he went 14 for 63 with 2 rec. for 18 and 18 carries for 59 yards with 2 rec. for 22 yards.
I think a resonable projection for FWP will be 85 total yards and no scores. If you have someone that projects better than that, I'd start him.
Vikes Fan
Footballguy
Lucky you!I have to choose two betweenFWPCaddyT. JonesDroughnsA-TrainCan you believe I am in the SB?I have to choose between him and Betts
