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Gamblers Corner - Correct Hedge for Final Four? (1 Viewer)

Cyclones

Cyclones

Footballguy
I have $200 on UK to win it all at 40-1, and $500 on Florida at 11-2.

Currently Florida is showing anywhere from even to slightly worse than even. Wisky is hovering around 4-1, UConn around 13-2. Do I just throw ~600 each on UConn and Wisky? In that case, my worst outcome is Florida wins it all and I am up $1250.

Conversely, I could simply hedge both games and take Wisky and UConn for ~600 each on the money line, then go from there depending on the results.

Thoughts?

 
Bet it all on a Florida/Kentucky parlay and then bet the winnings on Florida FTW.

 
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Nice job on both of those.

There is no "correct" hedge, per se. A hedge simply sacrifices a little expected value in exchange for reducing some of your risk/ensuring some sort of payout.

Do you want to gamble further? Or some? Or take some money and call it a day?

 
Since both Kentucky and Florida would be favorites in the Nat'l title game if they make it and don't play each other (and easy to hedge), it gives you lots of options. I would personally put a few hundred ($300?) on a Uconn/Wisconsin moneyline parlay for Saturday. It just allows you to make a smaller wager; you don't really want to hedge half of your potential Florida winnings. Either that wins and pays just over 5-1, or you've got at least one of your teams in. You could hedge any potential championship matchup, including the one where both your teams make it. I suspect Florida would be about a 4 point fave over Wisconsin, and Kentucky perhaps a bit higher vs Uconn; giving you some decent underdog moneylines. Florida-Kentucky is probably more like a 2 point line; still giving you a -130/-140 bet or so on FLA if you wanted to make sure you made about $5k in the end, regardless of who wins.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Nice job on both of those.

There is no "correct" hedge, per se. A hedge simply sacrifices a little expected value in exchange for reducing some of your risk/ensuring some sort of payout.

Do you want to gamble further? Or some? Or take some money and call it a day?
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Thanks - I can't take too much credit for the UK bet, I'm a homer and made it basically to show my buddy I still hadn't bailed on the team after we lost to South Carolina.

I'm trying to figure what the maximum guaranteed profit is here - I know there are still several ways this can go, but there has to be some way to say "the most you can guarantee yourself right now is "x" by making "x" bets. Right now if Florida wins its $2450, $7500 if UK wins. Part of me wonders if the best thing to do is just say screw it, let's swing for the fences. Nothing would be better than to cheer UK on to victory Monday in a drunken stupor and then head straight to the strip club to do lines in the VIP.

 
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Bet $2625 on Florida

Bet $2000 on Wisconsin

Bet $1230.75 on Uconn

You'll win $8000 no matter who wins, bets total $6555.75. Guaranteed profit of $1444.25.

 
I'm not a gambler so my numbers don't consider "juice" or whatever the hell you guys call it and stuff like that. But you get the idea - just place bets on the 3 non UK teams such that your amount won minus the other bets is the same in all directions. That's your guaranteed profit.

 
Cyclones said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Nice job on both of those.

There is no "correct" hedge, per se. A hedge simply sacrifices a little expected value in exchange for reducing some of your risk/ensuring some sort of payout.

Do you want to gamble further? Or some? Or take some money and call it a day?
Click to expand...
Thanks - I can't take too much credit for the UK bet, I'm a homer and made it basically to show my buddy I still hadn't bailed on the team after we lost to South Carolina.

I'm trying to figure what the maximum guaranteed profit is here - I know there are still several ways this can go, but there has to be some way to say "the most you can guarantee yourself right now is "x" by making "x" bets. Right now if Florida wins its $2450, $7500 if UK wins. Part of me wonders if the best thing to do is just say screw it, let's swing for the fences. Nothing would be better than to cheer UK on to victory Monday in a drunken stupor and then head straight to the strip club to do lines in the VIP.
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It honestly depends on what those amounts of money mean to you. If you guarantee $1200-$1400 but don't win $7500 (if UK wins), will that make you happy?

 
You can also bet exact matchups

FLA WIS +160

FLA KY +120

CONN WIS +600

CONN KY +500

With a quick search at Bovada

 
Parly Uconn and WIsoncon to win. Not sure what the payout will be since I can't see the lines form work, but I imagine it will be close to 3-1.

If you threw a grand on that and it hit, you win $3,000 there (minus whatever your total bets were before all this). That seems like it would be worst case scenario, especially if Kentucky advances.

If both Florida and Kentucky advance, you would be sitting pretty, even after losing the $1,000 on the parlay.

Another think to maybe do is just watch the florida game and then bet the Kentucky game straight up, and maybe change up the bet a bit depending on whether or not florida wins.

Rememeber, just cause you want to hedge, doesnt mean you need to hedge it all compeltely even. Gove yourself some room to win bigger at least.

 
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Since I do think Florida likely wins against Uconn, and looking at it some more, I am thinking a sizeable bet on Wisconsin at 4-1 miight be the way to go.

So if you watch that first game and Florida wins, bet like $1,000 on Wisconsin at 4-1.

So if the Championship game is Florida/Wisconsin, a floridal win would be like $2,750 plus your $500 back minus the grand for the Wisconsin bet.

If Wisconsin won, you win 4 grand minus the $500 for the FLorida bet.

Best case scenario on that would be Kentucky winning.

Then you have FLorida to win you $2,750 or Kentuck to win you $8,000 (minus the $1,000 you would have made for the wisconsin bet).

If Florida loses, you are still in a good position to win money by taking Wisconsin at 4-1, and then just hedging the Championship. Mpt as much, but thats part of the gamble.

 
3 hour lunch said:
Since both Kentucky and Florida would be favorites in the Nat'l title game if they make it and don't play each other (and easy to hedge), it gives you lots of options. I would personally put a few hundred ($300?) on a Uconn/Wisconsin moneyline parlay for Saturday. It just allows you to make a smaller wager; you don't really want to hedge half of your potential Florida winnings. Either that wins and pays just over 5-1, or you've got at least one of your teams in. You could hedge any potential championship matchup, including the one where both your teams make it. I suspect Florida would be about a 4 point fave over Wisconsin, and Kentucky perhaps a bit higher vs Uconn; giving you some decent underdog moneylines. Florida-Kentucky is probably more like a 2 point line; still giving you a -130/-140 bet or so on FLA if you wanted to make sure you made about $5k in the end, regardless of who wins.
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I like this play

cheap insurance against a nightmare scenario and leaves plenty of equity to hedge again in title game if less than perfect scenario.

 
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Easiest equity cashout is

$6367ish on Field vs UK @ -390 yields $1632ish

$1500 on Field vs Fla @ -120 yields $1250

So you have about $2882 in hedge equity.

 
Find out what Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal would do, and do the opposite.

With my team still in it, and having a really nice potential windfall, and also having the favorite where I'd still make a few bucks on my investments, I'd probably just let it ride.

 
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Cyclones said:
I have $200 on UK to win it all at 40-1, and $500 on Florida at 11-2.

Currently Florida is showing anywhere from even to slightly worse than even. Wisky is hovering around 4-1, UConn around 13-2. Do I just throw ~600 each on UConn and Wisky? In that case, my worst outcome is Florida wins it all and I am up $1250.

Conversely, I could simply hedge both games and take Wisky and UConn for ~600 each on the money line, then go from there depending on the results.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
If I've got the math worked at right. The cost to end up with $8200 in winning tickets regardless of outcome (the amount you'd receive on Kentucky) would be the following additional bets:

$2425 sorry $2475 on Florida at even money

$1640 on Wisconsin at 4-1.

$1093.33 on UConn at 13-2.

The total cost is the original $700 you wagered plus $5158.33 $5208.33 in new bets (at total of $5858.33 $5908.33).

Doing this would lock in a profit of $8200-$5858.33$5908.33= $2341.67 $2291.67

-QG

 
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Cyclones said:
I have $200 on UK to win it all at 40-1, and $500 on Florida at 11-2.

Currently Florida is showing anywhere from even to slightly worse than even. Wisky is hovering around 4-1, UConn around 13-2. Do I just throw ~600 each on UConn and Wisky? In that case, my worst outcome is Florida wins it all and I am up $1250.

Conversely, I could simply hedge both games and take Wisky and UConn for ~600 each on the money line, then go from there depending on the results.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
How much you want for the tickets?

 
Cleaner version of that last bit since I schticked it up with the cross out edits.

Assuming current odds of Fla 1-1, Wisconsin 4-1, UConn 13-2.

Betting

$2475 on Florida to win it all

$1640 on Wisconsin to win it all

$1093.33 on UConn to win it all

along with your two existing bets

Will ensure that you cash $8200 in winning ticket(s)

at a cost of $5908.33

-QG

 
One of my buddies put it pretty simply (as a couple of people in here did as well,) he said "how fast would you jump to make those bets today at those odds?"

It's a great point. I'm just going to let it ride out. If UK wins, it will probably take me until Wednesday afternoon to recover.

 
Cyclones said:
One of my buddies put it pretty simply (as a couple of people in here did as well,) he said "how fast would you jump to make those bets today at those odds?"

It's a great point. I'm just going to let it ride out. If UK wins, it will probably take me until Wednesday afternoon to recover.
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That is what we call "poor decision making and poor reasoning skills".

All this just really depends on how much money you have, and how much you care to win. There is no "right" thing to do, it's totally up to you.

But that thought process from your friend above is just #### stupid.

I can see his follow up question after Wisconsin or Uconn wins the title................."How fast would you have jumped at the chance to guarantee yourself a few thousand by hedging"?

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Cyclones said:
One of my buddies put it pretty simply (as a couple of people in here did as well,) he said "how fast would you jump to make those bets today at those odds?"

It's a great point. I'm just going to let it ride out. If UK wins, it will probably take me until Wednesday afternoon to recover.
Click to expand...
That is what we call "poor decision making and poor reasoning skills".

All this just really depends on how much money you have, and how much you care to win. There is no "right" thing to do, it's totally up to you.

But that thought process from your friend above is just #### stupid.

I can see his follow up question after Wisconsin or Uconn wins the title................."How fast would you have jumped at the chance to guarantee yourself a few thousand by hedging"?
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:goodposting: :blackdot:

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Cleaner version of that last bit since I schticked it up with the cross out edits.

Assuming current odds of Fla 1-1, Wisconsin 4-1, UConn 13-2.

Betting

$2475 on Florida to win it all

$1640 on Wisconsin to win it all

$1093.33 on UConn to win it all

along with your two existing bets

Will ensure that you cash $8200 in winning ticket(s)

at a cost of $5908.33

-QG
Click to expand...
For me, this sounds about right. A $2300 score is the about the lowest I'd go to do all of that hedging. I wouldn't do it for $1300 or $1400. That being said, if it were me I'd probably ride the Kentucky bet and enjoy the adrenaline. But then again I'm a #######.

 
absence the current Kentucky odds the poster has available I grabbed bodog - just trying to determine a rough percentage chance of winning the title for each team. Obviously the odds just equalize the money, but the market is really the only proxy I have at hand and it'll suit the back of the envelope exercise.

The question: what is the current value of the two tickets OP is holding? This will give a sense of how much of a charge is truly incurred by hedging. I'll be happy to recalc this if OP can give me the currently available Kentucky odds.

Okay so on bodog the odds are such:

Florida 1/1

Kentucky 2/1

Wisconsin 3/1

Connecticut 7/1

that adds up to 120.8333333333% which obviously isn't possible.

Scaling 'em all down we get

Florida = 41.37% for an EV of about $1345 on that ticket

Kentucky = 27.59% for an EV of about $2262 on that ticket

Wisconsin = 20.69% for an EV of $0

Connecticut = 10.34% for an EV of $0

So the total EV right now for OP is $3607 based on using the bodog odds as a proxy for true probability. Now the OP starts off this part of the exercise at -$700 so the ultimate situation is that the OP will be +$2907 at the end of this. With the hedge you're situation is +$2191.67. So the cost to hedge is about $715.33 - or about 25% of the present profit. Not a trivial premium but for a sure thing not horrible.

-QG

 
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I still think a nice lil $1,000 parlay on Wisconsin and Uconn moneyline isn't a bad idea.

Hell, if one of them are getting points, take the points and maybe they lose by 1 or 2 and you REALLY score, ya know.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
absence the current Kentucky odds the poster has available I grabbed bodog - just trying to determine a rough percentage chance of winning the title for each team. Obviously the odds just equalize the money, but the market is really the only proxy I have at hand and it'll suit the back of the envelope exercise.

The question: what is the current value of the two tickets OP is holding? This will give a sense of how much of a charge is truly incurred by hedging. I'll be happy to recalc this if OP can give me the currently available Kentucky odds.

Okay so on bodog the odds are such:

Florida 1/1

Kentucky 2/1

Wisconsin 3/1

Connecticut 7/1

that adds up to 120.8333333333% which obviously isn't possible.

Scaling 'em all down we get

Florida = 41.37% for an EV of about $1345 on that ticket

Kentucky = 27.59% for an EV of about $2262 on that ticket

Wisconsin = 20.69% for an EV of $0

Connecticut = 10.34% for an EV of $0

So the total EV right now for OP is $3607 based on using the bodog odds as a proxy for true probability. Now the OP starts off this part of the exercise at -$700 so the ultimate situation is that the OP will be +$2907 at the end of this. With the hedge you're situation is +$2191.67. So the cost to hedge is about $715.33 - or about 25% of the present profit. Not a trivial premium but for a sure thing not horrible.

-QG
Click to expand...
The field bet scenarios I posted earlier guarantees a return of $2800+. It is best to look at the two tickets individually and hedge as getting everything to match the biggest ticket will require bigger wagers which results in more house advantage (see >100% probability sum from your post).

 
$2,200 sounds a lot better than $0. If we look at it mathematically, we get:

$2,200 >>>>>> $0

 
Wow, a parlay of Uconn and Wisconsin to win is paying 7:1.

That is your easy way to hedge right there. So you bet $500 to win $3500.

 
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Cyclones said:
One of my buddies put it pretty simply (as a couple of people in here did as well,) he said "how fast would you jump to make those bets today at those odds?"

It's a great point. I'm just going to let it ride out. If UK wins, it will probably take me until Wednesday afternoon to recover.
Click to expand...
Congrats on making a great decision. Your friend made a great analogy.

 
Short Corner said:
QuizGuy66 said:
absence the current Kentucky odds the poster has available I grabbed bodog - just trying to determine a rough percentage chance of winning the title for each team. Obviously the odds just equalize the money, but the market is really the only proxy I have at hand and it'll suit the back of the envelope exercise.

The question: what is the current value of the two tickets OP is holding? This will give a sense of how much of a charge is truly incurred by hedging. I'll be happy to recalc this if OP can give me the currently available Kentucky odds.

Okay so on bodog the odds are such:

Florida 1/1

Kentucky 2/1

Wisconsin 3/1

Connecticut 7/1

that adds up to 120.8333333333% which obviously isn't possible.

Scaling 'em all down we get

Florida = 41.37% for an EV of about $1345 on that ticket

Kentucky = 27.59% for an EV of about $2262 on that ticket

Wisconsin = 20.69% for an EV of $0

Connecticut = 10.34% for an EV of $0

So the total EV right now for OP is $3607 based on using the bodog odds as a proxy for true probability. Now the OP starts off this part of the exercise at -$700 so the ultimate situation is that the OP will be +$2907 at the end of this. With the hedge you're situation is +$2191.67. So the cost to hedge is about $715.33 - or about 25% of the present profit. Not a trivial premium but for a sure thing not horrible.

-QG
Click to expand...
The field bet scenarios I posted earlier guarantees a return of $2800+. It is best to look at the two tickets individually and hedge as getting everything to match the biggest ticket will require bigger wagers which results in more house advantage (see >100% probability sum from your post).
Click to expand...
If the math works I totally agree :) Since it's not my situation I'll leave it to our dice-rolling posty :)

-QG

 
tjnc09 said:
"Good said:
ghostguy123 said:
Wow, a parlay of Uconn and Wisconsin to win is paying 7:1.

That is your easy way to hedge right there. So you bet $500 to win $3500.
Click to expand...
Sure, but you can still lose the parlay AND not collect any winnings.

These are all just different ways of slicing the same pie.
Click to expand...
Right. What does he do if Florida and Wisconsin the FF and Wisconsin wins the NC? Not as simple as that.
Click to expand...
ummmmmm, then hedge the title game. Did I really need to answer that?

 
tjnc09 said:
Hey ghost, maybe take a step back out of being-an-###-land and really think about your suggestion
Click to expand...
I did. I did not think about the EXACT amount to make it a better hedge, but the parlay is a pretty good way to go.

Worst case scenario there is a Florida win and a Wisconsin win, which could very well happen, but even then a hedge on that would win about $1,500.

Best case is both Florida and Kentucky winning obviously.

 
Still leaning toward letting it ride. If UConn beats Florida I will probably do something with the Wisky game, like take Wisky for 1500-2k ATS. The $8,000 nut sitting out there is probably clouding my judgment, especially considering its on my own team, but hell, I've come this far with them. Who knows, maybe UK wins by 1 and I middle it and go into Monday looking at a $10k payday.

 
Captain Quinoa said:
Cyclones said:
Captain Quinoa said:
What are the odds on all of Kentucky's wins being vacated at some point? I would hammer that if I were you.
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Not very insightful and totally unoriginal, but thanks for the input, #######.
Click to expand...
It was more of a shot at Cal than uk hoops in general but wow yer kind of a sensitive little flower.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we could start a whole new thread on whether or not Cal is operating above board at UK, and frankly I do have some doubts even as a UK fan.

 
Cyclones said:
Captain Quinoa said:
Cyclones said:
Captain Quinoa said:
What are the odds on all of Kentucky's wins being vacated at some point? I would hammer that if I were you.
Click to expand...
Not very insightful and totally unoriginal, but thanks for the input, #######.
Click to expand...
It was more of a shot at Cal than uk hoops in general but wow yer kind of a sensitive little flower.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we could start a whole new thread on whether or not Cal is operating above board at UK, and frankly I do have some doubts even as a UK fan.
Click to expand...
So Quinoa's an ####### for insinuating that Calipari's dirty, but you might also believe that Calipari is dirty. Do I have that right?

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Cyclones said:
Captain Quinoa said:
Cyclones said:
Captain Quinoa said:
What are the odds on all of Kentucky's wins being vacated at some point? I would hammer that if I were you.
Click to expand...
Not very insightful and totally unoriginal, but thanks for the input, #######.
Click to expand...
It was more of a shot at Cal than uk hoops in general but wow yer kind of a sensitive little flower.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we could start a whole new thread on whether or not Cal is operating above board at UK, and frankly I do have some doubts even as a UK fan.
Click to expand...
So Quinoa's an ####### for insinuating that Calipari's dirty, but you might also believe that Calipari is dirty. Do I have that right?
Click to expand...
If Captain Couscous' worse tasting cousin wants to start a thread about the legitimacy of Kentucky's wins, Final Fours, and Title over the last 5 years, I'll be happy to engage him in that discussion. This thread wasn't about that.

And frankly, I think any team attracting top talent is operating in a grey area, not just Kentucky. African American studies anyone?

 
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