1) Dungy had a horrible game plan against the Pats and the snow didn't help what is basically a turf offense. While the Eagles O may not be as diverse and as potent as the Colts, I can GUARANTEE, they will have a better plan in place to exploit weaknesses in the Pats D than the friggin' Colts.
2) The Steelers game got out of hand early because Big Ben played like a rookie. Turnovers killed Pitt and they're not a come from behind team. They win by establishing a lead, and then grinding it out with the run. The Pats took them out of their game plan and Cowher isn't a good enoguh coach to make the adjustments.
3) If the Eagles score 24 to 27 points on Sunday, I believe they'll win. The Pats haven't faced a QB like McNabb. And exactly which defenses are better overall than Philly, that, as you claim, New England has put up substantial scoring against?
4) You feel like TO will play at 80%? How did you come to that number? Just curious about the science that went into that assumption. What percentage will Seymour be at by the way?
Answers to all these points:1. and 2. You may call it luck or whatever, but
when the game was played the Patriots found ways to put the other teams off their game plan. This was not just fluke luck - it has been happening for 2 years.
3a. You say "if my team puts up X points, they'll win". In this arguement, it is more key to establish why they are a lock to put up that many points, than whatever number X is. How is McNabb significantly different than any other good QB? Sure, he may be a bit better at running for that crucial one first down or punch in a few TDs each year, but he's not gonna change the face of the game with his legs as Vick does (1outof4 games). Other than that hes no different than any other upper tier QB. I'm not knocking him - he's high quality thru and thru, but not unique as you argue. Tha Pats have faced plenty of quality QBs over the last couple years.
3b. The eagles MAY be the best D in the league (personally I dispute this) but even if they are, their edge in that department is not significant. 41 points agains Steelers is pretty significant number against pretty damn good D.
4. The same way anyone other than TO would come up w/ any number! W.A.G. or gut feeling. The likelhood of Seymour playing when he's less than 900% is probably lower w/ Belichick than Owens' chance of playing hobbled in his current situation. Owens has actually "painted himself into a corner" (and his coach even more so!) with his words. Think about it whether a player CAN play is the player's decision. Whether a player SHOULD play is the coaches decision. If Owens is actually in a state where he should not play for the ood of the team, he's made it that much harder for the coach to say so.
The game plan is really simple:
Double TO all night if needed, knock the rest of the WRs at the line, contain on the dumps to the flat and let Westbrook get 4 yards and a major beating each reception. McNabb will run a few times due to coverage, but wont "make a meal of it".
If Jeff Thomason happens to come up w/ more than 1 big play, you have a chance to still hang in to the 3rd.
Personally, I hope TO plays - maybe McNabb will try to force some balls to him leading to pics.
I look at it this way:
If its a reasonably close game, there are ways the Eagles can win.
But there's only one team here that could blow out the other - the Pats.