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Get Your Money out of the Market (1 Viewer)

Also not worried about the Fractional Reserve Banking that Spock is so worried about - if it is so bad, why is that the primary banking method in most countries?
For the same reason that Coke and Pepsi are the primary soft drinks sold around the world just like they are here in the states. They are in the business of manufacturing soft drinks, and their market is not just the United States. It's the entire world. Likewise banks are in the business of manufacturing money, and their market is not just the United States. It's the entire world. The banking industry is a cartel. Before you respond with the :tinfoilhat: , I'm referring to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements All banks that utlilize a central bank that are a member of the BIS must comply to BIS policy. Just as you can get "Mexican Coke" in Mexico which uses different ingredients than Coke made here in the United States, both are manufactured complying to Coca-Cola's policy. Likewise, money manufactured by the central bank in China uses different ingredients than money manufactured by the Federal Reserve, but both comply to BIS policy.

Everyone is an idiot?
Well, as PT Barnum supposedly said, "There's one born every minute". We've been sold this money manufacturing service, just like we've been sold Coke and Pepsi goods and services. If it's possible that people have been stupid for buying Coke and Pepsi's services for their lifetimes and will suffer the health consequences of having done it, then it's just as possible that we've been stupid for buying the BIS cartel's money services for our lifetimes and will suffer the financial consequences of having done it.

While that is a possibility, I'd prefer to believe that it has proven to be, at least in recent times, the best choice to an expanding market and allows for capital growth, given a strong central authority to manage things.
And Coke and Pepsi have proven to be the best choices in what people want from a soft drink. They want to be refreshed. They want to enjoy the taste, etc, etc.... They meet those desires better than the other alternatives. But as we are now learning, they have serious negative health consequences. We weren't told about that by those companies. We had to discover it the hard way.Likewise, currency generated via interest bearing debt has proven to be the best choice in what people want from a currency. It expands to the market, and allows for capital growth, etc, etc... They meet those desires better than the other alternatives. But as we are now learning, they have serious negative financial consequences. We weren't told about that by the BIS. We had to discover it the hard way.

Admittedly I am not an expert, and i don't know a ton about the alternatives, but I believe forcing banks to hold 100% of the $ they lend would lead to a very constricted market and money supply, right?
There are a lot of alternatives, and discussing them wouldn't just requires a new thread, but a lot of new threads. But yes, banks would no longer generate loans, expcept by loaning out money the bank owns. And it would be a 1 to 1 loan of those dollars they own. The banks could loan out other people's money, but it would essentially be a brokering service, like peer to peer lending services such as Prosper are. Your deposit in the bank would not be readily available for withdrawal, because it would be loaned out. You and the bank are then sharing the interest being generated on the pool of loans you approved for your deposit. The creation of money would as such need to come from somewhere other than banks. Throughout history those sources have been from nature and from government. The BIS has worked hard over the centuries to eliminate those other sources of money, as they are competition to their method of currency manufacturing. If you look at the list of members of the BIS on the link above, you'll see that many of the countries experienced life altering wars before they joined the BIS and began a central bank complying to the BIS. You also notice countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lybia, Sudan, Egypt, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, etc, etc... are not BIS members, yet also happen to be where the vast majority of war and international polictical friction exists in the world. But in know way am I insinuating a conspiracy is behind that. ;)

Basically lending as we know it wouldn't really exist, it would encourage saving. So maybe it would lead to a financial system where no one is as "well-off" financially as they "appear" to be today, but where everyone is more stable financially due to the limited debt load. It would be harder (slower) to build wealth though, I would think.
As I said before there are a lot of options, which could produce a ton of new thread discussiing them, so I'm hesitant to suggest an alternative. But I believe Thomas Edison should have enough credibility on inteligence to deserve a shout out of his idea regarding where money should come from instead of the banks. http://prosperityuk.com/2000/09/thomas-edison-on-government-created-debt-free-money/

What he is suggesting is exactly what President Lincoln did during his presidency. Instead of having his US Treasury print interest bearing bonds out of thin air and exchanging them with banks for dollar notes that they print out of thin air, he instead had his US Treasruy print dollar notes out of thin air and spent them on his army to fight the civil war. He pretty much had to, because the banks wanted well over 25% interest on their bond swap method, and Lincoln thought that was ridiculous (and rightfully so). Lincoln generated $450 million of those US Treasury issued debt free/interest free dollars, and they worked just like Thomas Edison says the system should work.

In the BIS policy, any time a country wishes to add to the national wealth they are compelled to add to the national debt. This generates profit for the international banking cartel. However, if the government is allowed to get into the business of manufacturing money, the banks not only get no business, they then have competition for the demand for their money creation services.

If the US government were able to compete with the internation banking cartel in the manufacturing of money, then it's quite possible that we could continue to let the banks fractionally reserve lend it out. Because that process would have compeition from the government for the demand for dollars. It would be an even more competitive market if nature were once again allowed to be in the manufacturing of money (gold and silver). If people could get money manufactured from multiple sources, it would be a true captilistic system with real market competition for money creation services. Today we don't have that at all. It is a monopoly. It is a cartel. Even our own government is subject to it and suffers from it.

Having said all that, it would seem so simple that congress just give the executive branch the power to create money again (it took it away after Lincoln exercised that power because the banks lobied congress to get the government out of the money creation business). But I honestly believe that it would result in World War 3. While the BIS and the US Federal government are healthily seperated from each other to some degree, the BIS is deeply ingrained in the government operations of other countries. And if we began to compete with the BIS cartel, war with quite a few other countries would soon follow.

 
good post.

massive cuts likely in january as debt ceiling is breached again and all tax cuts expire...

better safe than sorry...

 
You guys are overreacting a bit, don't you think? He said "over the next four months." It's day 2.Can't wait until you guys are clubbing each other with bats over the last few cans of soup at the supermarket, come January. :wave:
what part of "get your money out of the market" TODAY, in the thread title/subtitle is unclear to you...
 
You guys are overreacting a bit, don't you think? He said "over the next four months." It's day 2.Can't wait until you guys are clubbing each other with bats over the last few cans of soup at the supermarket, come January. :wave:
what part of "get your money out of the market" TODAY, in the thread title/subtitle is unclear to you...
Right, but get it out "TODAY" just to be safe. That doesn't mean it's going to fall off a cliff today.
 
You guys are overreacting a bit, don't you think? He said "over the next four months." It's day 2.Can't wait until you guys are clubbing each other with bats over the last few cans of soup at the supermarket, come January. :wave:
what part of "get your money out of the market" TODAY, in the thread title/subtitle is unclear to you...
Right, but get it out "TODAY" just to be safe. That doesn't mean it's going to fall off a cliff today.
But getting out when he said today would have cost you money. Timing the market is a fools exercise.
 
I am a long term bull. I always have been, always will be. A balanced portfolio has been a rock 80 years and running.

However. This recent bull market ralley we have seen that started this past summer is one built on pure hot air and easy money. It is getting so inflated that all it will take is one small but sharp pin to burst it.

The higher this market goes in the face if monumental headwinds in our budget being trillions in debt, the absolute fact that the Euro Zone is going totally broke and merely buying time with this ECB rhetoric and complete illusion of any kind of meanignful solution, the daunting task of putting new tax laws, cuts etc into place and not knowing who is going to do it....the middle east and pending Israle/Iran conflict and very posssible air strikes to Irans nuclear facilities (the true black swan that nobody seems to be talking about at all), the harder it will fall when it happens.

And it will happen. That is an easy thing to guarantee. The market basically hit a high it has not seen since December of 2007. Real unemployment is probably around 12-15% because so many have fallen off the system and are still out of work. The GDP is barely growing at 2% with 2 rounds of QE and operation twist and now they are on the cusp of another round of money printing!!!

The other side to all this is "there is no where else to put the money in so stocks is where it is going".

Yeah.....sugar high and starving for yield. This is the result of Central Bankers. And the side effects are going to be bad. The more this continues the worse the correction. The inflation will be robust, the cost of living will skyrocket to new heights. This is just bad bad bad.

Because the fact of the matter is 50% of the S&P 500 companies garner at least 30% of their top line revenues from Europe. And Europe my friends is in recessions and some areas are in a depressions...30-35% unemployment, unsustainable social programs, and the ECB is going to back stop this board of falling dominos? Germany is just going to agree to everything? HAAAAAAA!!!

Again....give me fundamental reasons why our stock market should be threatning the all time highs? We are 700 points or 5.66% away from the all time high.

It's madness. And the rug is going to get pulled away again.

Because in the end as always.....fundamentals determine markets over the imtermidate and long term and the fundamentals say.....the US is barely getting by and Europe is about to collapse. It is a monetary fact.

Drahgi and Ben can talk all they want. But this will crash down......after the election (so it seems but who really knows). Again the higher this climbs the worse the correction will be. When the Dow was at 12,800 I felt we would pull back to 11.800 and test from there. Now we are at 13,282.....this thing can come down 2000 points in a matter of 10-14 days when the needle hits the balloon that is this irrational market. When ATT and Verizon....companies with snails pace growth and very high PE's are hitting all time highs....you know people are starving for yield. Interest rates at these levels tell us the economy is bad.....really bad. banks will not lend...they just will not take much risk for what return they can get just buying T-bills. Why would a bank lend at 3% WITH RISK? If your lending at 3%.....hell that should be low low risk....banks are frozen. And this is a product of the Fed and all this easing...which has done minimal things to get us going. People, confidence...that is what moves the economy and creates jobs....not government and Central banks. And this is reeking of politics (The Fed and ECB) it is disgusting.

Where is the growth? Where? Where are the jobs? Where is the recovery? We have made minimal progress. We are not at the abyss with our banking system like in March of 2009 but we are not I repeat not anywhere close to a healthy economy (when the market was this high where was unemployment then? 3% think about that) fundamentally to sustain this ralley long term without a real wash out (market correction) and real solutions in Washington to get back on the path of growth, real job creation and wealth building for the majority of this country.

Be well diversified......do not buy into equites at this moment. Build lot's of dry powder.

The Vix is so low....it is telling us trouble is just around the corner.

When it happens.....pounce and buy buy buy and dig in for the long term. But new money should not be just blindly getting in as it seems to always do at the height of a bull market.

Think about this we are 5% and change away from the all time high. Where is our econmomy and the world economy now compared to 2007 when the market was doing this same dance.

Think about that long and hard.

Rinse wash and repeat. It is typical.

Be well and good luck to all.

 
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You guys are overreacting a bit, don't you think? He said "over the next four months." It's day 2.Can't wait until you guys are clubbing each other with bats over the last few cans of soup at the supermarket, come January. :wave:
what part of "get your money out of the market" TODAY, in the thread title/subtitle is unclear to you...
The market is now a Las Vegas casino. If you like to gamble, then stay in. Today many craps tables will roll sevens, many slot machines will payoff, and many roulette tables will payout 36 to 1 to its winners. It's fun to gamble. It's not wrong for you to stay and gamble.Yesterday was a good day for the Wall Street casino patrons thanks to the ECB agreeing to naked short a ton more chips on to the casino floor. They essentially just "comped" those who have decided to stay in their casino, because a lot of people who have realized that the stock market is no longer investing, but is instead gambling, have left.If you don't like gambling with your money, then I agree with LHUCKS. Leave the casino today. And don't look back just because bells rang and lights flashed for winners that you are no longer a part of.
 
good post.massive cuts likely in january as debt ceiling is breached again and all tax cuts expire...better safe than sorry...
:lmao: You really think the rich are going to let this happen? Tax cuts will continue and the debt ceiling will be raised.
 
So is the move to get in a 100% all cash equivalent position right before the election? Anybody ballsy enough to go short?

 
The market is now a Las Vegas casino. If you like to gamble, then stay in.
when wasn't it?the difference is that this casino has a long term positive return.... the casino is a guaranteed loser even with optimum play.are you suggesting that over the next 30-50 years that unless I am making correct decisions on active trading that i'm going to end up with zero or negative returns? or even just paltry returns?I've been doing active management for awhile and for my efforts i'm only a couple percentage points ahead of where i'd be if i just jammed it all into "SPY" and never thought about the market again.
 
You guys are overreacting a bit, don't you think? He said "over the next four months." It's day 2.Can't wait until you guys are clubbing each other with bats over the last few cans of soup at the supermarket, come January. :wave:
what part of "get your money out of the market" TODAY, in the thread title/subtitle is unclear to you...
Right, but get it out "TODAY" just to be safe. That doesn't mean it's going to fall off a cliff today.
But getting out when he said today would have cost you money. Timing the market is a fools exercise.
Unless you do the exact opposite of Fensalk's infamous stock market predictions.
 
'Dentist said:
'Politician Spock said:
The market is now a Las Vegas casino. If you like to gamble, then stay in.
when wasn't it?
When the value of a stock was based on the worth of the company, instead of being based on what the BIS cartel of central banks are willing or not willing to do to stimulate stock prices, like it functions today.
 
'Dentist said:
'Politician Spock said:
The market is now a Las Vegas casino. If you like to gamble, then stay in.
when wasn't it?
When the value of a stock was based on the worth of the company, instead of being based on what the BIS cartel of central banks are willing or not willing to do to stimulate stock prices, like it functions today.
Game's always been rigged in some way... but it's the only game in town.
 
Taken from Yahoo Finance

According to this morning's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for August fell to 8.1% compared to 8.3% in July. If you like your news positive and grossly oversimplified stop reading now; the details on the report are hideous.

Consider:

Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 96k compared to estimates of 125k - 130k and a far cry from the average growth of 139k in 2012. Last year the average monthly gain was 153k.

July's NFP number was revised lower from 163k to 141k.

The greatest gains came from the food services and drinking sector. In other words, from waiting tables or bartending. These are some of the most brutal, lowest paying jobs extant.

The labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%, the lowest read in over 30 years. When this number goes down so does the stated unemployment rate. To get to 8.1% unemployment, 368,000 Americans had to drop out of the labor force.

No matter what you hear or read elsewhere, America's job picture is getting worse. Much, much worse. My Breakout co-host Matt Nesto and I discuss the report in the attached clip.

Starting with the participation rate, Nesto notes that "almost 400,000 people dropped out, just gave up" looking for work in August. For each one-tenth of one percent improvement in the unemployment rate, 184,000 Americans had to become quitters.

Quitting could mean going on disability, going into the grey market (read: getting paid cash for odd jobs), doing something illicit, or begging. Whatever they're doing instead of working or looking for legitimate jobs, 368,000 Americans gave up on participating in the economy in August alone.

What would it take to make you just give up entirely? That's what hundreds of thousands of your fellow Americans went through last month. Think about that if anyone tries to tell you a drop in the headline rate is anything but more evidence of an ongoing national disgrace.

Keep pumping that Market Ben and Drahgi. It is one big pump....and probably after the election dump.

 
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'Dentist said:
'Politician Spock said:
The market is now a Las Vegas casino. If you like to gamble, then stay in.
when wasn't it?
When the value of a stock was based on the worth of the company, instead of being based on what the BIS cartel of central banks are willing or not willing to do to stimulate stock prices, like it functions today.
Game's always been rigged in some way... but it's the only game in town.
If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
 
Taken from Yahoo FinanceAccording to this morning's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for August fell to 8.1% compared to 8.3% in July. If you like your news positive and grossly oversimplified stop reading now; the details on the report are hideous.Consider:•Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 96k compared to estimates of 125k - 130k and a far cry from the average growth of 139k in 2012. Last year the average monthly gain was 153k.•July's NFP number was revised lower from 163k to 141k.•The greatest gains came from the food services and drinking sector. In other words, from waiting tables or bartending. These are some of the most brutal, lowest paying jobs extant.•The labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%, the lowest read in over 30 years. When this number goes down so does the stated unemployment rate. To get to 8.1% unemployment, 368,000 Americans had to drop out of the labor force.No matter what you hear or read elsewhere, America's job picture is getting worse. Much, much worse. My Breakout co-host Matt Nesto and I discuss the report in the attached clip.Starting with the participation rate, Nesto notes that "almost 400,000 people dropped out, just gave up" looking for work in August. For each one-tenth of one percent improvement in the unemployment rate, 184,000 Americans had to become quitters.Quitting could mean going on disability, going into the grey market (read: getting paid cash for odd jobs), doing something illicit, or begging. Whatever they're doing instead of working or looking for legitimate jobs, 368,000 Americans gave up on participating in the economy in August alone.What would it take to make you just give up entirely? That's what hundreds of thousands of your fellow Americans went through last month. Think about that if anyone tries to tell you a drop in the headline rate is anything but more evidence of an ongoing national disgrace.Keep pumping that Market Ben and Drahgi. It is one big pump....and probably after the election dump.
But.... but.... but.... Obama says it's getting better. :unsure:
 
If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
everything is a game in life, son.Real estate's a game, the stock market's a game.. there's no guarantees and no free lunches.tell me how to get wealthy without taking any risks that aren't games in some way?'Cuz i ain't gettin' rich off T-bills and CD's
 
If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
everything is a game in life, son.Real estate's a game, the stock market's a game.. there's no guarantees and no free lunches.tell me how to get wealthy without taking any risks that aren't games in some way?'Cuz i ain't gettin' rich off T-bills and CD's
Dentist....you and I think very much alike. I have been in the market since 1987. It has given me many good things. The returns have been astounding.No doubt, with proper management and no emotion involvment you will prosper over the long term. Timing the market is a fools game.The only thing I see though is extreme caution with new money. I have mentioned many times it is what I do for my living (I am a financial advisor) and all new money has been broadly diversifed into a highly diversifed bond fund portfolio short term high quality corp bonds/munis, high yield corp bonds/munis, GNMA's, intermediate corps/munis, emerging market debt, floating rate debt,international government and corp debt gold and precious metals, and a strong hedge in managed futures. I had nibbled into stocks back in May and June when we gave away all of 2012's gains and rebalanced accounts as well back then. This recent run up while great for my bottom line (I am strictly fee based) is in the short term a suckers bull market.Been doing this a long time. This is not a fundamental bull market. No question we are in a much better place (our country) than back in 2008/09 when our financial system was truly on the brink.....but we are not nearly back to what we were leading up to this.I mentioned all the headwinds we face a few posts backThe market is overpriced right now. A correction is looming. So new money.....majority should be low duration bonds, metals, hard currency and managed futures to hedge the equity market. This will come down fast and it will be a great buying opportunity again. We have been sideways from 2011 to june 2012. Since then we have had a pre-election run up. Buckle up for another sideway market in 2013 and a sharp correction to start this engine again.Hence why a balanced portfolio is the foundation of a sound long term investment strategy. The ride is far smoother and the yield in a balanced portfolio is highly important to weather the storms we get year to year in the markets in todays world.
 
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If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
everything is a game in life, son.Real estate's a game, the stock market's a game.. there's no guarantees and no free lunches.tell me how to get wealthy without taking any risks that aren't games in some way?'Cuz i ain't gettin' rich off T-bills and CD's
The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry. We'd actually be better off if the system were allowed to crash, and we could begin moving forward with a new system. But the impact of that process scares people so much that our government is choosing the alternative, which is to bring it down slowly over time. QE1, QE2, ZIRP, Operation Twist, QE3, etc, etc... these are the efforts to keep the system from collapsing, and they are what allows for it to come down slowly over time. The system will never fix itself. It can't. It's naturally trying to correct itself by falling. The system has prospered us for over 100 years because every time the economy has wanted to naturally decline, just like it naturally should every now and then, the system has borrowed prosperity from the future to avoid decline today, and with interest due for that service. So the natural economic declines we should have experienced (and are healthy correction for a healthy economy) have just been postponed. Now the system is saturated, and the tricks of the system will eventually (probably soon) become ineffective, and nature will show that it is stronger than the system. If you're looking to get wealthy, than casino's and Wall Street are your best options. Some will time it very well, and exit at the right time with a nice profit. Other's will lose fortunes because they timed it wrong.
 
If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
everything is a game in life, son.Real estate's a game, the stock market's a game.. there's no guarantees and no free lunches.tell me how to get wealthy without taking any risks that aren't games in some way?'Cuz i ain't gettin' rich off T-bills and CD's
Dentist....you and I think very much alike. I have been in the market since 1987. It has given me many good things. The returns have been astounding.No doubt, with proper management and no emotion involvment you will prosper over the long term. Timing the market is a fools game.The only thing I see though is extreme caution with new money. I have mentioned many times it is what I do for my living (I am a financial advisor) and all new money has been broadly diversifed into a highly diversifed bond fund portfolio short term high quality corp bonds/munis, high yield corp bonds/munis, GNMA's, intermediate corps/munis, emerging market debt, floating rate debt,international government and corp debt gold and precious metals, and a strong hedge in managed futures. I had nibbled into stocks back in May and June when we gave away all of 2012's gains and rebalanced accounts as well back then. This recent run up while great for my bottom line (I am strictly fee based) is in the short term a suckers bull market.Been doing this a long time. This is not a fundamental bull market. No question we are in a much better place (our country) than back in 2008/09 when our financial system was truly on the brink.....but we are not nearly back to what we were leading up to this.I mentioned all the headwinds we face a few posts backThe market is overpriced right now. A correction is looming. So new money.....majority should be low duration bonds, metals, hard currency and managed futures to hedge the equity market. This will come down fast and it will be a great buying opportunity again. We have been sideways from 2011 to june 2012. Since then we have had a pre-election run up. Buckle up for another sideway market in 2013 and a sharp correction to start this engine again.Hence why a balanced portfolio is the foundation of a sound long term investment strategy. The ride is far smoother and the yield in a balanced portfolio is highly important to weather the storms we get year to year in the markets in todays world.
Now this I can agree with.I've been buying preferred stocks, REITs, and other types of instruments that don't rely as much on the market for the same reason.I also have a pretty high for my age position in cash in my 401k accounts... all in anticipation of a 10-15% correction at some point in the next year or so.But to completely get out of the game? or short it the whole way? Not gonna work
 
If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
everything is a game in life, son.Real estate's a game, the stock market's a game.. there's no guarantees and no free lunches.tell me how to get wealthy without taking any risks that aren't games in some way?'Cuz i ain't gettin' rich off T-bills and CD's
The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry. We'd actually be better off if the system were allowed to crash, and we could begin moving forward with a new system. But the impact of that process scares people so much that our government is choosing the alternative, which is to bring it down slowly over time. QE1, QE2, ZIRP, Operation Twist, QE3, etc, etc... these are the efforts to keep the system from collapsing, and they are what allows for it to come down slowly over time. The system will never fix itself. It can't. It's naturally trying to correct itself by falling. The system has prospered us for over 100 years because every time the economy has wanted to naturally decline, just like it naturally should every now and then, the system has borrowed prosperity from the future to avoid decline today, and with interest due for that service. So the natural economic declines we should have experienced (and are healthy correction for a healthy economy) have just been postponed. Now the system is saturated, and the tricks of the system will eventually (probably soon) become ineffective, and nature will show that it is stronger than the system. If you're looking to get wealthy, than casino's and Wall Street are your best options. Some will time it very well, and exit at the right time with a nice profit. Other's will lose fortunes because they timed it wrong.
don't disagree that a lot of things with the way the country is going seem unsustainable.But didn't it also look that way in the 70's? again in the 80's?But your last statement confuses me... you said don't play wall street, then you said: "if you want to get wealthy, it's your best option"Obviously timing matters.My grandfather crushed things timing wise... retired in 1987, invested a lot of lump sum pension money in the market... obviously the next 13 years was bliss as he made money hand over fish.... and then he ramped the aggressiveness way down before 2000 when it died.Another dentist i knew retired in '08... then his money got cut in half (because he was invested poorly) and now he's back at work.Obviously I may either get lucky or get owned... who knows. All you can do is play the game to the best of your ability and hope for the best.Life's an entire game... you might manage your money great, but your health fails you... or vice versa... your health might out-live your money.But since the game of life is the only one in town, i'm playing to win despite the rigging
 
The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry.
Boy do you underestimate the power of the rich. No way they let this ponzi scheme fail.
 
If you like to play games with your wealth, I completely agree that it's the only game in town.
everything is a game in life, son.Real estate's a game, the stock market's a game.. there's no guarantees and no free lunches.tell me how to get wealthy without taking any risks that aren't games in some way?'Cuz i ain't gettin' rich off T-bills and CD's
The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry. We'd actually be better off if the system were allowed to crash, and we could begin moving forward with a new system. But the impact of that process scares people so much that our government is choosing the alternative, which is to bring it down slowly over time. QE1, QE2, ZIRP, Operation Twist, QE3, etc, etc... these are the efforts to keep the system from collapsing, and they are what allows for it to come down slowly over time. The system will never fix itself. It can't. It's naturally trying to correct itself by falling. The system has prospered us for over 100 years because every time the economy has wanted to naturally decline, just like it naturally should every now and then, the system has borrowed prosperity from the future to avoid decline today, and with interest due for that service. So the natural economic declines we should have experienced (and are healthy correction for a healthy economy) have just been postponed. Now the system is saturated, and the tricks of the system will eventually (probably soon) become ineffective, and nature will show that it is stronger than the system. If you're looking to get wealthy, than casino's and Wall Street are your best options. Some will time it very well, and exit at the right time with a nice profit. Other's will lose fortunes because they timed it wrong.
don't disagree that a lot of things with the way the country is going seem unsustainable.But didn't it also look that way in the 70's? again in the 80's?But your last statement confuses me... you said don't play wall street, then you said: "if you want to get wealthy, it's your best option"Obviously timing matters.My grandfather crushed things timing wise... retired in 1987, invested a lot of lump sum pension money in the market... obviously the next 13 years was bliss as he made money hand over fish.... and then he ramped the aggressiveness way down before 2000 when it died.Another dentist i knew retired in '08... then his money got cut in half (because he was invested poorly) and now he's back at work.Obviously I may either get lucky or get owned... who knows. All you can do is play the game to the best of your ability and hope for the best.Life's an entire game... you might manage your money great, but your health fails you... or vice versa... your health might out-live your money.But since the game of life is the only one in town, i'm playing to win despite the rigging
If you want to get wealthy, then go play wall street. We agree it's the only game in town. I don't think people should be trying to get wealthy given the circumstances. They should instead be looking to protect what they have. But if you're motivation is to get wealth, then go play in the only game. As for the 70's and 80's, there were a lot of differences demographically and economically back then then. The most significant being that the baby boomers were entering their mid 20's and around 2000 began entering their mid 50's. That was a massive amount of people borrowing money to buy houses, cars, appliances, vacations, etc, etc... and as we know, when debt increases, the amount of currency that exists increases. So yes, the debt numbers today look similar to the debt numbers in the 70's and 80's. But today, instead of having a massive demographic of the population about to fuel the currency with new demand for debt, we now have a massive demographic of the population about to become government expenses (social security, medicare, etc...). When the baby boomers entered their mid 50's and began to be people paying off debt 10 years before retirement, instead of being people fueling the currency by increasing debt, they were people unwilling to borrow so soon before retirement, eliminating their debt before they retired, and we saw the dramatic effect this had in the economy. President Bush, who was suppossed to be a fiscal conservative, was forced to borrow and spend. He had to. If he didn't the currency would have collapsed. His ridiculous spending was keeping the economy from crashing. What he did wrong was work with congress to encourage home sales to risky buyers. From a currency stand point, it helped. The currency doesn't care where the debt is being generated. When it's generated, a debt created dollar is a debt created dollar regardless of who created the debt (a rich person, a poor person, the government). That had the negative effect of inflating home prices, which of course led to 2008.Similarly, Obama made such great promises. Reducing the deficit. Going through government spending line by line. Getting rid of the pork spending. Etc, etc... but then once elected, the BIS, the Federal Reserves, and Wall Street showed him how the system works. Our currency requires new debt. And if the people can't borrow because the housing crash ruined their credit, government has to borrow and spend to keep the system afloat. And Obama will have to do it in his next term. Or Romney will have to do it. It has to be done regardless of who gets elected. The only difference will be where they choose to spend what they had to borrow. There is nothing in the demographics of the American populace that suggests they can create the amount of new debt our currency needs in the next 12 months, the next 24 months, the next 60 months, the next 120 months, or even the next 240 months. The burden of the debt creation that our currency needs to keep from collapsing MUST come from the government. Hence why QE1, QE2, ZIRP, Operation Twist, QE3, etc, etc... are must haves today, when in the 70's and 80's they weren't needed. But it goes well beyond demographics. There are many other reasons today is different than the 70's and 80's. Back in the 70's and 80's, oil was cheap to pump. There were a lot of deposits close to the earths surface that were relatively cheap to extract. Today, oil companies are spending far more to get a barrel of oil out of the earth. They have to drill much deeper. They have to take greater risks. This effects a persons ability to borrow, which of course effects their ability to fuel the debt creation our currency requires. When oil was cheap in the 70's and 80's a smaller percentage of a person's income accounted for the cost of oil used in their lifestyle. Today, a higher percentage of a person's income accounts for the cost of oil used in their lifestyle. That leaves less of their income available to service the debt the decide to create. Hence they aren't capable of producing as much debt because oil costs more to extract from the earth. That is only going to get worse.We also see today that a person needs to spend more on their education than they did in the 70's and 80's. This actually does help the currency, as they tend to borrow to get that additional education. But it makes it harder for them to borrow for houses, cars, appliances, vacations, etc, etc... like the baby boomers were doing in the 70's and 80's. Today is nothing like it was in the 70's and 80's, and the economic correction that nature wants to naturally occur will be far worse than the great depresssion.
 
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The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry.
Boy do you underestimate the power of the rich. No way they let this ponzi scheme fail.
They are powerful. I believe however that nature doesn't care how powerful they are. Ponzi schemes naturally fail.
 
The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry.
Boy do you underestimate the power of the rich. No way they let this ponzi scheme fail.
They are powerful. I believe however that nature doesn't care how powerful they are. Ponzi schemes naturally fail.
I don't see this one failing in our lifetimes, if ever. It would be a global catastrophy at this point. I remember the days when I thought the national debt was a serious problem. I now realize it's meaningless. If it had any meaning at all, the way we print $, a loaf of bread should cost a helluva lot more than it does yet it doesn't.
 
Today is nothing like it was in the 70's and 80's, and the economic correction that nature wants to naturally occur will be far worse than the great depresssion.
read your whole post. A lot of "right" in there.but I'm still not sure what your argument is to do... short the whole market? Buy Gold? Stay all cash? Looks if my currency is going to be devalued like you say it will be (and again I don't disagree... the ultra-low interest rate era has to end at some point, and when it does it's going to be inflation city)... then my only alternatives are to either:1) spend my money now while it's at max value2) accept that my $1000 today will be worth $500 in 10 years and be ok with that3) attempt to make money with my money to outpace inflationIt's like you're leaning towards #2.. and that's unacceptable.I have a ton of investments that aren't "stocks" per say.. lots of corporate bonds, REITs, etc.. I'm not sure if you include those in "the game" or not (i do), but unless I'm going to spend my money on goods/services right now that I neither want nor need, then I've got to do something to fight inflation.And I've got a lot of dry powder for when it dips... but I'm not even sure what you're suggesting to do... but it sounds like Mattress stuffing and buying guns.
 
The system is coming down, one way or another. It will either crash, or be brought down slowly over time. The fuel the currency needs to keep the plane in the air is running dry.
Boy do you underestimate the power of the rich. No way they let this ponzi scheme fail.
They are powerful. I believe however that nature doesn't care how powerful they are. Ponzi schemes naturally fail.
I don't see this one failing in our lifetimes, if ever. It would be a global catastrophy at this point. I remember the days when I thought the national debt was a serious problem. I now realize it's meaningless. If it had any meaning at all, the way we print $, a loaf of bread should cost a helluva lot more than it does yet it doesn't.
It's possible that it may not fail in our lifetimes. The central bank tricks will work until they no longer do. When that will be requires crystal balls.The price of a loaf of bread is not mutually exclussive to the money supply. It also reflects increases in efficiencies of producing loaves of bread. That is to say, if the population and the money supply were static, and the process of making bread gets more efficient, and/or the logistical systems of distributing the bread gets more efficient, then the price of bread would go down. But despite all of the effeciencies of production, and the "just in time" delivery logistics perfected by Wal-mart, et al... the price of bread has risen, not declined like it naturally would being isolated from money supply influence. This suggests that the debt/money supply system DOES have meaning. And significant meaning at that.
 
Today is nothing like it was in the 70's and 80's, and the economic correction that nature wants to naturally occur will be far worse than the great depresssion.
read your whole post. A lot of "right" in there.but I'm still not sure what your argument is to do... short the whole market? Buy Gold? Stay all cash? Looks if my currency is going to be devalued like you say it will be (and again I don't disagree... the ultra-low interest rate era has to end at some point, and when it does it's going to be inflation city)... then my only alternatives are to either:1) spend my money now while it's at max value2) accept that my $1000 today will be worth $500 in 10 years and be ok with that3) attempt to make money with my money to outpace inflationIt's like you're leaning towards #2.. and that's unacceptable.I have a ton of investments that aren't "stocks" per say.. lots of corporate bonds, REITs, etc.. I'm not sure if you include those in "the game" or not (i do), but unless I'm going to spend my money on goods/services right now that I neither want nor need, then I've got to do something to fight inflation.And I've got a lot of dry powder for when it dips... but I'm not even sure what you're suggesting to do... but it sounds like Mattress stuffing and buying guns.
I'm not advising you what to do. I'm informing you of what is coming. There are people out there that will tell you to buy gold. They make a good argument. But there are also people out there that make the case that gold won't be worth anything either, because you can't eat or drink gold, and the massive demand will be for food and water. There are also others that say you should invest in real estate. But there are also others that say owning real estate will be worthless because there will be so much death occuring that you could own a house in a neighborhood with 90% empty house because so many people have died. What would your home be worth if someone can buy one of the 9 empty houses around your one occupied home?Pretty much every asset has an argument for, and an argument against holding it during this storm.I wish I could tell you which levy the hurricane is going to break... which roof the hurricane is going to blow off... which cars are going to be picked up and deposited into people's living rooms. But I can't. I can't give you details of the damage the storm is going to produce, so that you know which assets to hold that won't be damaged. The only thing I can tell you is that a massive storm is coming sometime in the future. It may be after you die, but a lot of signs say it could be soon... very soon. Make your best guess how to protect yourself from it. Just know that even some who did a great job of planning to protect themselves will still be destroyed, because it's a violent storm that has no bias at all.
 
I think a lot of times we get caught up in the "what should be happening" and don't pay enough attention to "what IS happening."

There are Bull Markets. And there are Bear Markets. Relax. Have a stop loss. Be disciplined. Don't let your winners turn into losers. Pay attention to what IS happening and the recent past. Define the market by your time-frame. If price has been generally going up the last day, week, month...guess what...that's Bullish...if price is generally moving down=bearish.

Everyone seems so eager to pick a top or a bottom. But the fact is- NO ONE knows the future. THAT is the the fools errand. Be open to the opportunity that presents in the here and now. My #### gets hard when the wind blows north and it gets hard when the wind blows south...as long as it blows there's opportunity.

Price has generally been going up, as I mentioned Bullish since late June. I'd look to maximize profits in THIS current bull market. When it turns (and it will), I'd look to maximize profits in THAT bear market. But being bearish now takes your eye off the ball, creates doubt and indecision, and lends itself to overall poor decisions. Overtime those are the biggest hindrances to your success.

Just like you don't want to throw a superbowl party in September...you don't want to turn bearish till THAT market opportunity presents. You'll feel it when the wind begins to blow south.

 
I think a lot of times we get caught up in the "what should be happening" and don't pay enough attention to "what IS happening."There are Bull Markets. And there are Bear Markets. Relax. Have a stop loss. Be disciplined. Don't let your winners turn into losers. Pay attention to what IS happening and the recent past. Define the market by your time-frame. If price has been generally going up the last day, week, month...guess what...that's Bullish...if price is generally moving down=bearish.Everyone seems so eager to pick a top or a bottom. But the fact is- NO ONE knows the future. THAT is the the fools errand. Be open to the opportunity that presents in the here and now. My #### gets hard when the wind blows north and it gets hard when the wind blows south...as long as it blows there's opportunity.Price has generally been going up, as I mentioned Bullish since late June. I'd look to maximize profits in THIS current bull market. When it turns (and it will), I'd look to maximize profits in THAT bear market. But being bearish now takes your eye off the ball, creates doubt and indecision, and lends itself to overall poor decisions. Overtime those are the biggest hindrances to your success.Just like you don't want to throw a superbowl party in September...you don't want to turn bearish till THAT market opportunity presents. You'll feel it when the wind begins to blow south.
I just started digging a bomb shelter in my backyard today.
 
I think a lot of times we get caught up in the "what should be happening" and don't pay enough attention to "what IS happening."There are Bull Markets. And there are Bear Markets. Relax. Have a stop loss. Be disciplined. Don't let your winners turn into losers. Pay attention to what IS happening and the recent past. Define the market by your time-frame. If price has been generally going up the last day, week, month...guess what...that's Bullish...if price is generally moving down=bearish.Everyone seems so eager to pick a top or a bottom. But the fact is- NO ONE knows the future. THAT is the the fools errand. Be open to the opportunity that presents in the here and now. My #### gets hard when the wind blows north and it gets hard when the wind blows south...as long as it blows there's opportunity.Price has generally been going up, as I mentioned Bullish since late June. I'd look to maximize profits in THIS current bull market. When it turns (and it will), I'd look to maximize profits in THAT bear market. But being bearish now takes your eye off the ball, creates doubt and indecision, and lends itself to overall poor decisions. Overtime those are the biggest hindrances to your success.Just like you don't want to throw a superbowl party in September...you don't want to turn bearish till THAT market opportunity presents. You'll feel it when the wind begins to blow south.
I agree with what your saying expect having stop losses. I'd have "mental" stop losses, but I'd never enter one with your broker. There is too much risk for my liking. All it takes is a institutional trader error and all HFT's pull their bids, you're stopped out, and the market corrects itself with you on the sideline.
 
'LHUCKS said:
The real question...which stocks do I jump on to profit off the likely bounce in the coming days. :thumbup:
Over the next 6 months from the date of this post, the S&P was down 34%. DOW was at 11,421 on the date of this post. It eventually bottomed ~ 6500. Just an FYI for anyone new to the FFA who may take the OP seriously.
 
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How much have you lost so far shorting the market? Or did you even follow your own conviction?

 
I think a lot of times we get caught up in the "what should be happening" and don't pay enough attention to "what IS happening."

There are Bull Markets. And there are Bear Markets. Relax. Have a stop loss. Be disciplined. Don't let your winners turn into losers. Pay attention to what IS happening and the recent past. Define the market by your time-frame. If price has been generally going up the last day, week, month...guess what...that's Bullish...if price is generally moving down=bearish.

Everyone seems so eager to pick a top or a bottom. But the fact is- NO ONE knows the future. THAT is the the fools errand. Be open to the opportunity that presents in the here and now. My #### gets hard when the wind blows north and it gets hard when the wind blows south...as long as it blows there's opportunity.

Price has generally been going up, as I mentioned Bullish since late June. I'd look to maximize profits in THIS current bull market. When it turns (and it will), I'd look to maximize profits in THAT bear market. But being bearish now takes your eye off the ball, creates doubt and indecision, and lends itself to overall poor decisions. Overtime those are the biggest hindrances to your success.

Just like you don't want to throw a superbowl party in September...you don't want to turn bearish till THAT market opportunity presents. You'll feel it when the wind begins to blow south.
:confetti:
 
How much have you lost so far shorting the market? Or did you even follow your own conviction?
:bump for SHUCKS: :popcorn:
I'm not back in yet. I'm talking to some of the smartest guys I know and getting a consensus.One of the guys I really respect thinks we could see a bump after the election results regardless of who it is that wins. Still thinking this one through.Very happy on the sidelines for now.
 
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How much have you lost so far shorting the market? Or did you even follow your own conviction?
:bump for SHUCKS: :popcorn:
I'm not back in yet. I'm talking to some of the smartest guys I know and getting a consensus.One of the guys I really respect thanks we could see a bump after the election results regardless of who it is that wins.

Still thinking this one through.

Very happy on the sidelines for now.
no wonder the line was moving so slow at Subway :rant:
 
How much have you lost so far shorting the market? Or did you even follow your own conviction?
:bump for SHUCKS: :popcorn:
I'm not back in yet. I'm talking to some of the smartest guys I know and getting a consensus.One of the guys I really respect thanks we could see a bump after the election results regardless of who it is that wins. Still thinking this one through.Very happy on the sidelines for now.
Wait...so I should put my money back in now? :hot:
 
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So is the move to get in a 100% all cash equivalent position right before the election? Anybody ballsy enough to go short?
My pops finance guy at ML has actually moved a small portion of his estate into shorting the indexes a bit as a hedge. This is something they've never done before but they're actually doing it with some investors now.
 
'LHUCKS said:
The real question...which stocks do I jump on to profit off the likely bounce in the coming days. :thumbup:
Over the next 6 months from the date of this post, the S&P was down 34%. DOW was at 11,421 on the date of this post. It eventually bottomed ~ 6500. Just an FYI for anyone new to the FFA who may take the OP seriously.
:own3d:
 

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