Going for it on 4th Down - Mina Breaks it Down (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I really like Mina Kimes. I know she’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but I think she’s a sharp analyst & seems like a very decent human being.

That said, she does a really good breakdown of why going for it on 4th down is most often the correct decision, (despite using the Chargers as an example they just don’t know how to finish games).

Enjoy.

 

[kutta]

Was hoping for more in-depth analysis of the actual models. I'm not sure she said anything we don't already know. I'd like to see someone dive into the models and talk about how they actually calculate and build them.

 

[rockaction]

MIna Kimes is to football what the Three True Outcomes guys were to baseball. That's not necessarily a compliment.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think a lot of it depends on a teams strengths. Detroit for example has a FG kicker that has a limited range and an offense that does well in short yardage, so it makes sense for them to go for it more often than most. Other teams might be better off with a more conservative approach. So no one size fits all imo.

 

[Gally]

I think a lot of it depends on a teams strengths. Detroit for example has a FG kicker that has a limited range and an offense that does well in short yardage, so it makes sense for them to go for it more often than most. Other teams might be better off with a more conservative approach. So no one size fits all imo.

This is my issue with the "analytics" given during the game stating this team should go for it or not go for it. I can guarantee the stats aren't for this particular team vs that particular team and are a general "this many teams went for it on 4th and 2 and 64.7% of the time they made it so they should go for it". Not all teams are created the same. Game flow also matters as does current health of the line, RB, etc.

Putting a percentage to these things seems flawed due to the generalities of it.