MFL is down so I can't log in to check the PDSL drafts, but I feel like both of these guys are going quite late despite significant upside. I'm curious what everyone's take is on these guys and their situation. And for clarity, I'm purely speaking from a 2016 redraft perspective and, although I play both formats, I prefer 0ppr.
I don't mean to sway anyone, but I'll share my initial thoughts, questions, and some cursory data.
First off, I don't like Caldwell. I can't believe he hasn't been fired yet. But he's been there two years so we've got a little data to work with. Over those two years the Lions have the following ranks: passing yards - 12th (8718), passing TDs - 12th (55), pass attempts - 8th (1233), and more importantly WR targets - 13th (490), WR rec TDs - 13th (34).
Just looking at that, Detroit appears a good, not great situation for a WR. However, when Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC for the last 8 games, Stafford really turned around his season. His splits look like this:
193-299-2083-13-11
205-293-2179-19-2
So in conclusion, we should conservatively view this as a slightly above average situation (~13th) with a realistic upside of pretty good (~8th).
Next, let's look at the WRs during the JBC reign. Calvin actually had 7 less targets and 8 less receptions during that span while Tate had 9 less targets and 10 more receptions. So it sure seems JBC figured out how to better utilize Tate. However, I should point out that Tate's YPR actually dropped from 9.4 to 8.7 after the switch. Still he was on pace for 120-100-872-10. But when did Golden Tate turn into Jarvis Landry?? Prior to last year, he averaged 13.4 YPR for his career. So I don't know how he suddenly dropped significantly under two different offensive coordinators. Aberration or red flag? Either way, even in 0ppr, he appears worth a WR3 price tag with that crappy YPR, offering huge upside if he can regain some YPR and maintain that TD pace. His 2014 season (144-99-1331-4), while lacking TDs, was still good for a WR13 finish in 0ppr and certainly much higher in ppr due to the 99 receptions.
As for Marvin Jones, he got a lot of hype due to his own aberration - 10 TDs on just 51 receptions during Dalton's unexpected QB3 year. He then missed a year due to an ankle injury (injured it before the season and then re-injured it before returning) and came in with a respectable 65/816/4 via 103 targets. You might think, well, he'd have done better if Dalton hadn't missed a quarter of the season. Surprisingly, he actually did a little better with McCarron (26-18-221-0). It is difficult to project a guy in a new situation, but it's obviously safe to expect more targets and I don't know how popular this will be but I don't see the quality of the targets being any better from Stafford than Dalton. That being said, should he catch Stafford's eye and somehow absorb all of Calvin's 9+ targets per game, the volume alone would propel him to at least near WR1 production.
I think realistically, we can expect 130 targets for the already entrenched Tate and 120 for the new starter, with an upside of +20 for both. I was really high on Tate in 2014 due to his yards after the catch numbers and his high catch rate, thinking he'd thrive while Calvin was drawing coverage. As it turned out, while Calvin was injured (either an active decoy or out altogether) Tate actually excelled as the WR1. His 2014 number were actually propped up by the time that Calvin was injured. Hard to predict that to be the case after the change in OC and the drop in YPR, but I figured it was worth noting in case anyone forgot how that played out. Also of note, while this is a redraft discussion, Marvin Jones is only about 1.5 years younger than Tate. Right now they are 27 and 26, but by the time the season starts they'll be 28 and 26.
So what does everyone else think? Are people more excited about the shiny new arrival or do people think Tate can recapture his 2014 magic? Or do people think JBC's offense will get figured out and the Lions will crash and burn this year without Calvin? -which would justify both guys' current ADP.
I don't mean to sway anyone, but I'll share my initial thoughts, questions, and some cursory data.
First off, I don't like Caldwell. I can't believe he hasn't been fired yet. But he's been there two years so we've got a little data to work with. Over those two years the Lions have the following ranks: passing yards - 12th (8718), passing TDs - 12th (55), pass attempts - 8th (1233), and more importantly WR targets - 13th (490), WR rec TDs - 13th (34).
Just looking at that, Detroit appears a good, not great situation for a WR. However, when Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC for the last 8 games, Stafford really turned around his season. His splits look like this:
193-299-2083-13-11
205-293-2179-19-2
So in conclusion, we should conservatively view this as a slightly above average situation (~13th) with a realistic upside of pretty good (~8th).
Next, let's look at the WRs during the JBC reign. Calvin actually had 7 less targets and 8 less receptions during that span while Tate had 9 less targets and 10 more receptions. So it sure seems JBC figured out how to better utilize Tate. However, I should point out that Tate's YPR actually dropped from 9.4 to 8.7 after the switch. Still he was on pace for 120-100-872-10. But when did Golden Tate turn into Jarvis Landry?? Prior to last year, he averaged 13.4 YPR for his career. So I don't know how he suddenly dropped significantly under two different offensive coordinators. Aberration or red flag? Either way, even in 0ppr, he appears worth a WR3 price tag with that crappy YPR, offering huge upside if he can regain some YPR and maintain that TD pace. His 2014 season (144-99-1331-4), while lacking TDs, was still good for a WR13 finish in 0ppr and certainly much higher in ppr due to the 99 receptions.
As for Marvin Jones, he got a lot of hype due to his own aberration - 10 TDs on just 51 receptions during Dalton's unexpected QB3 year. He then missed a year due to an ankle injury (injured it before the season and then re-injured it before returning) and came in with a respectable 65/816/4 via 103 targets. You might think, well, he'd have done better if Dalton hadn't missed a quarter of the season. Surprisingly, he actually did a little better with McCarron (26-18-221-0). It is difficult to project a guy in a new situation, but it's obviously safe to expect more targets and I don't know how popular this will be but I don't see the quality of the targets being any better from Stafford than Dalton. That being said, should he catch Stafford's eye and somehow absorb all of Calvin's 9+ targets per game, the volume alone would propel him to at least near WR1 production.
I think realistically, we can expect 130 targets for the already entrenched Tate and 120 for the new starter, with an upside of +20 for both. I was really high on Tate in 2014 due to his yards after the catch numbers and his high catch rate, thinking he'd thrive while Calvin was drawing coverage. As it turned out, while Calvin was injured (either an active decoy or out altogether) Tate actually excelled as the WR1. His 2014 number were actually propped up by the time that Calvin was injured. Hard to predict that to be the case after the change in OC and the drop in YPR, but I figured it was worth noting in case anyone forgot how that played out. Also of note, while this is a redraft discussion, Marvin Jones is only about 1.5 years younger than Tate. Right now they are 27 and 26, but by the time the season starts they'll be 28 and 26.
So what does everyone else think? Are people more excited about the shiny new arrival or do people think Tate can recapture his 2014 magic? Or do people think JBC's offense will get figured out and the Lions will crash and burn this year without Calvin? -which would justify both guys' current ADP.
