Google+ > When does it go "Mainstream" (1 Viewer)

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FACEBOOK:

Founded in 2004 - Certain Colleges Only

In 2005 it was opened to some high schools as well

In September of 2006 it was opened to the general public

By Aug 2008 there were 100 Million people using the service

By Sept 2009 there were 300 Million people using the service.

As of July of 2010 there were 500 Million people using the service

As of July of 2011 there were 750 Million people using the service

GOOGLE PLUS:

Founded recently and is in public Beta with limited introduction.

It's expected to be opened to the public sometime later this month.

Roughly how quickly do you expect it to hit the Milestones above?

 

[[icon]]

I voted:

100 Million: 2012

500 Million: Never

I can see it becoming moderately successful.... perhaps topping out in the 200 to 300 Million members range, however I suspect its userbase vs active userbase ratio will be considerably lower than facebook's for the foreseeable future.

Just at hunch.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

do you have myspace stats? (specifically the decline) I can see facebook numbers dwindling in the near future.

depending on when they open the floodgates I could see 100 mil by 2012

not sure about 500 mil

 

[[icon]]

depending on when they open the floodgates I could see 100 mil by 2010

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

what are the "perks" to google+

why do I care? Why is the average joe going to sign up?

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

depending on when they open the floodgates I could see 100 mil by 2010

lol yes the Google time machine, fixed

 

[pantagrapher]

what are the "perks" to google+why do I care? Why is the average joe going to sign up?

I'm guessing friends convince them to join. There's definitely a category of people who get in on things like this right off the bat and based on their experience they either recommend it to others or crap all over it (and in doing so probably have some say in early tweaks during the beta test period). I heard good things so I jumped in when I got the invite, but I haven't really used it much yet.

 

[[icon]]

do you have myspace stats? (specifically the decline) I can see facebook numbers dwindling in the near future.depending on when they open the floodgates I could see 100 mil by 2012not sure about 500 mil

Myspace Numbers:LAUNCH: 2003100 MILLION USERS : 2006DECLINE STARTED: 2007-2008FEB 2010: Roughly 60-65 Million UsersFEB 2011: Roughly 35 Million UsersBest I could find.

 

[Abraham]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

 

[Joe T]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

Interesting. Tell me more.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

If everything goes right for Google, I think they could hit 100M by the end of this year and 500M by the end of 2012. They already have more unique users than Facebook, 1 billion to 750 million, so the question is whether or not they can create a critical mass in converting those users. I don't really think there is a middle ground here, it will either grow fast and furious or it will quickly wither on the vine like Wave did. Someone in the other thread said it pretty well, (paraphrasing) the tool itself is important, but the value is in the community.

If they don't quickly grow the community, they'll be no reason to use the tool no matter how cool it is.

 

[Abraham]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

Interesting. Tell me more.

There are likely 750 million user accounts in the database. There is no telling how many are active, how many are inactive, and how many are aliases.

 

[goonsquad]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

 

[[icon]]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

You're likely somewhat correct here. They claim 750 Active accounts and 50% as "very active" Per their metrics:750 Million "Active Users"50% of active users sign in dailyUsers spend 700,000,000,000 minutes per month on FBMore than 30 Billion pieces of content shared monthlyCurrently 250 Million people using Mobile interactions (browser or app)2.5 Million sites have integrated with FB including 80 of ComScores US Top 100 and over half of the Global Top 10010,000 new sites integrate daily250 Million people use this engagement monthly

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

You're likely somewhat correct here. They claim 750 Active accounts and 50% as "very active" Per their metrics:

750 Million "Active Users"

50% of active users sign in daily

Users spend 700,000,000,000 minutes per month on FB

More than 30 Billion pieces of content shared monthly

Currently 250 Million people using Mobile interactions (browser or app)

2.5 Million sites have integrated with FB including 80 of ComScores US Top 100 and over half of the Global Top 100

10,000 new sites integrate daily

250 Million people use this engagement monthly

External analysts put the number closer to 700 million, and losing users in North America and Europe, but either way there's no getting around the fact that it is ubiquitous. One of things most interesting things to watch as someone who deals with social media (and both of these companies) professionally is how quickly Google can achieve the kind of one click integration that fb and twitter have on most major websites.

 

[urbanhack]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

Interesting. Tell me more.

There are likely 750 million user accounts in the database. There is no telling how many are active, how many are inactive, and how many are aliases.

I hate misleading data like this. It's probably more like 550 million actual users and 750 million accounts. I know more than 10 to 12 people alone who have created at least two different accounts. And who knows if they are including business fan pages as part of that number.

 

[[icon]]

Very surprised to see "Never reach 100MM users" leading here. I'd be very very surprised if Google failed to capture 100MM users in this day and age.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Very surprised to see "Never reach 100MM users" leading here. I'd be very very surprised if Google failed to capture 100MM users in this day and age.

I'm sure it's based on Google's widely public failures in Social Media to date. They had the same advantage of the largest user base of any IIP with Wave and Buzz and couldn't get any traction. This feels different though. Totally anecdotally - I tried for two years to get my mother to sign up for facebook, to the point having her in my house sitting in front of a computer, and she wouldn't do it. All it took was one e-mail saying that I sent her a Google+ invite and she should activate that part of her account so we could 3 way video conference with my brother, and she was online today.

Looking around here it seems different too. This thread was the biggest one about Google wave. It was around for 3 months and barely cracked 2 pages. I couldn't even find a thread about Buzz. By comparision, the main Plus thread is already at 8 pages in just a couple weeks and generating some lively debate. Probably doesn't mean much going forward, but plus seems to clearly be coming out of the gate better.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

They better rollout this thing quicker because I think I've already lost interest and I don't even really know how it works yet.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Very surprised to see "Never reach 100MM users" leading here. I'd be very very surprised if Google failed to capture 100MM users in this day and age.

How did Google Buzz do?

 

[Maelstrom]

Facebook does not have 750 million users.

Interesting. Tell me more.

There are likely 750 million user accounts in the database. There is no telling how many are active, how many are inactive, and how many are aliases.

I hate misleading data like this. It's probably more like 550 million actual users and 750 million accounts. I know more than 10 to 12 people alone who have created at least two different accounts. And who knows if they are including business fan pages as part of that number.

Nope, not really a good posting. Hate to disagree with ya, Abraham, but I most definitely do. According to Facebook, the user counts they release only count users who have logged in within the last 30 days. So unless they are flat out lying (sure it's possible) or a ton (millions) of people are actively using multiple accounts, the 750million is probably pretty accurate count of ACTIVE users. It is pretty accepted by the people who follow social media that they aren't lying about this, and that the way Facebook counts users is actually a preferred method to counting activations or just number of accounts. The first media company to get wind of them manipulating their user numbers in a way they specifically say they don't would break that immediately, and it would be very large news. And that number most definitely doesn't include business pages or the count would be well north of a billion already.

Link

One important thing to note: unlike many online services, Facebook's user count metric actually means something — it's defined as a user who has logged in within the last 30 days (plenty of sites only report cumulative users, which doesn't take into account that many people stop using their services).

 

[Maelstrom]

As to the poll, I'd say sometime 2012 for 100 million (probably springish, early summer) and not till 2014 or later for 500 million, if they hit that.

 

[Corporation]

Very surprised to see "Never reach 100MM users" leading here. I'd be very very surprised if Google failed to capture 100MM users in this day and age.

I'm sure it's based on Google's widely public failures in Social Media to date. They had the same advantage of the largest user base of any IIP with Wave and Buzz and couldn't get any traction. This feels different though. Totally anecdotally - I tried for two years to get my mother to sign up for facebook, to the point having her in my house sitting in front of a computer, and she wouldn't do it. All it took was one e-mail saying that I sent her a Google+ invite and she should activate that part of her account so we could 3 way video conference with my brother, and she was online today.

Looking around here it seems different too. This thread was the biggest one about Google wave. It was around for 3 months and barely cracked 2 pages. I couldn't even find a thread about Buzz. By comparision, the main Plus thread is already at 8 pages in just a couple weeks and generating some lively debate. Probably doesn't mean much going forward, but plus seems to clearly be coming out of the gate better.

To be fair, 5 of the 8 pages on G+ were goon and Abe fighting. Also to Maelstrom

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

I'm really skeptical, we are getting oversaturated with social media in general. How many people are going to want to check into multiple networks?

I think they are late to this party.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

 

[Abraham]

Reportedly at 18 million now.

 

[Joe T]

Reportedly at 18 million now.

Registered or active?

 

[No. 16]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

St. Louis to Portland to St. LouisLewis and Clark: 2 years

Southwest Airlines: 13 hours

Looking at the rate of adoption means nothing.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

St. Louis to Portland to St. LouisLewis and Clark: 2 years

Southwest Airlines: 13 hours

Looking at the rate of adoption means nothing.

Note: Lewis & Clark are dead.

 

[bentley]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

St. Louis to Portland to St. LouisLewis and Clark: 2 years

Southwest Airlines: 13 hours

Looking at the rate of adoption means nothing.

Note: Lewis & Clark are dead.

Uninteresting side note - Lewis died a mysterious death. Our PR company was also the PR company for the Lewis family. They wanted to have him dug up and study the cause of death.

 

[No. 16]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

St. Louis to Portland to St. LouisLewis and Clark: 2 years

Southwest Airlines: 13 hours

Looking at the rate of adoption means nothing.

Note: Lewis & Clark are dead.

Really? Link please.

 

[McJose]

I still don't see how this is any better than facebook.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

I still don't see how this is any better than facebook.

easier to control the streams and your privacy

 

[drummer]

Whatever happened to Google Wave?

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

St. Louis to Portland to St. LouisLewis and Clark: 2 years

Southwest Airlines: 13 hours

Looking at the rate of adoption means nothing.

I wouldn't sensationalize this. Certainly it has some value. What was the adoption rate of Google Wave? I would bet it wasn't 10 million in 16 days. You're posting in a thread about when does G+ go mainstream (i.e. adoption rate) yet you don't understand how to measure when mainstream occurs. Do you think there's a switch that gets flipped (not mainstream) / (mainstream)?

 

[No. 16]

to reach 10 million users:

Google+: 16 days

Twitter: 780 days

Facebook: 852 days

link

St. Louis to Portland to St. LouisLewis and Clark: 2 years

Southwest Airlines: 13 hours

Looking at the rate of adoption means nothing.

I wouldn't sensationalize this. Certainly it has some value. What was the adoption rate of Google Wave? I would bet it wasn't 10 million in 16 days. You're posting in a thread about when does G+ go mainstream (i.e. adoption rate) yet you don't understand how to measure when mainstream occurs. Do you think there's a switch that gets flipped (not mainstream) / (mainstream)?

Comeback when there is hundreds of millions of users. VOLUME > RATE of ADOPTION.

I'm not saying that G+ is a bad idea or a bad social network, but to tout its success with 10 million users in 16 days doesn't do much for me. Sure it's a good sign compared to Wave and Buzz. However, when you plot G+ adoption rate on the same graph as Facebook and Twitter you're not making an apples to apples comparison so that data means nothing to me.

All that 10 million in 16 days means is that so far people are willing to give G+ a shot compared to Buzz and Wave. Which is a good thing. Now it's up to G+ to keep them there.

As for the mainstream definition. When grandparents, aunts, uncles, parents, and the pastor start referring to taking pictures to post it on "Google +" or taking a "Google + picture" and everyone understands what the hell you're saying that is when mainstream occurs. If you want number, I'll say when G+ has half the volume of Facebook (facebook has about 750+ million users) and the same usage rate (50% of those users logging during the day) then that will be news.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Sign ups also don't exactly equal "using". I am not seeing much active use in my circles, although the population is growing. I am really skeptical that people are going to want to embrace another social network.

 

[The Commish]

I still don't see how this is any better than facebook.

Other than you can select which folks you want to hear from. You can now ignore the moron who feels the need to update their status 5 million times a day.

 

[The Commish]

For the most part, folks in my circles appear to be signing up. I'd say less than half are "active" on it at the moment. It would probably be best for Google to put out some sort of ad listing the differences if they want people to get interested.

 

[[icon]]

I still don't see how this is any better than facebook.

Other than you can select which folks you want to hear from. You can now ignore the moron who feels the need to update their status 5 million times a day.

But, you could do that on facebook.

 

[[icon]]

In the last week, I've logged into FB about 15-20 times between my phone and my laptop. I've not logged into my G+ account once.

Just logged in. 2 new "Friend" requests. Only 1 per son is actually posting anything out of the 25 or so friends. I think I'll give it another week before logging in again.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

In the last week, I've logged into FB about 15-20 times between my phone and my laptop. I've not logged into my G+ account once. Just logged in. 2 new "Friend" requests. Only 1 per son is actually posting anything out of the 25 or so friends. I think I'll give it another week before logging in again.

Totally opposite of my experience. I've seen a steady increase in people joining and being active. I did the first "hangout" with my family this weekend, which was more fun than I expected. I've also had a steady stream of interesting content from some people I'm following. To some of the posts above about why Google+ is better, while the circles are good for filtering what you want to see in your stream they are better for organizing how you share information and updates. As an example, this weekend I took a short video of my son going down the slide at our pool and swimming to the side. I posted it to both facebook and Google+. On facebook, of course, it was spammed out to everyone I'm friends with, a good portion of which probably didn't really need to see it. On Google+, I was able to select my family circle and a few friends that I knew would be interested. Eventually I'll probably have a group designated for stuff like that, and others for various groups of mutual interest.

 

[The Commish]

I still don't see how this is any better than facebook.

Other than you can select which folks you want to hear from. You can now ignore the moron who feels the need to update their status 5 million times a day.

But, you could do that on facebook.

maybe I'm stupid...how do I do that? I tried all the access changes and the only way I am able to keep them from showing up is by blocking them completely.

 

[No. 16]

I still don't see how this is any better than facebook.

Other than you can select which folks you want to hear from. You can now ignore the moron who feels the need to update their status 5 million times a day.

But, you could do that on facebook.

maybe I'm stupid...how do I do that? I tried all the access changes and the only way I am able to keep them from showing up is by blocking them completely.

Go to the very bottom of your Newsfeed until you see the blue/gray bar where it says "Older posts" on the far right of that same bar it says "Edit options." Click it and select people to hide posts from.You can also block apps from your Newsfeed so you don't have to see another Foursquare, MaifaWars, or FarmVille post ever again.

 

[Short Corner]

If you want number, I'll say when G+ has half the volume of Facebook (facebook has about 750+ million users) and the same usage rate (50% of those users logging during the day) then that will be news.

Those aren't users, those are user accounts. They can thank Zynga for those inflated numbers. Lots of people using multiple accounts just for gaming.

 

[No. 16]

If you want number, I'll say when G+ has half the volume of Facebook (facebook has about 750+ million users) and the same usage rate (50% of those users logging during the day) then that will be news.

Those aren't users, those are user accounts. They can thank Zynga for those inflated numbers. Lots of people using multiple accounts just for gaming.

Same difference.

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

still an awesome costume

 

[[icon]]

In the last week, I've logged into FB about 15-20 times between my phone and my laptop. I've not logged into my G+ account once. Just logged in. 2 new "Friend" requests. Only 1 per son is actually posting anything out of the 25 or so friends. I think I'll give it another week before logging in again.

Totally opposite of my experience. I've seen a steady increase in people joining and being active. I did the first "hangout" with my family this weekend, which was more fun than I expected. I've also had a steady stream of interesting content from some people I'm following. To some of the posts above about why Google+ is better, while the circles are good for filtering what you want to see in your stream they are better for organizing how you share information and updates. As an example, this weekend I took a short video of my son going down the slide at our pool and swimming to the side. I posted it to both facebook and Google+. On facebook, of course, it was spammed out to everyone I'm friends with, a good portion of which probably didn't really need to see it. On Google+, I was able to select my family circle and a few friends that I knew would be interested. Eventually I'll probably have a group designated for stuff like that, and others for various groups of mutual interest.

Hrm... Seems my experience is more in line with what's happening overall. Google+ is already seeing traffic slow. http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/27/google-minus/Oof... Just 2 months in. Do we have another wave on our hands?

 

[Maelstrom]

In the last week, I've logged into FB about 15-20 times between my phone and my laptop. I've not logged into my G+ account once.

Just logged in. 2 new "Friend" requests. Only 1 per son is actually posting anything out of the 25 or so friends. I think I'll give it another week before logging in again.

Totally opposite of my experience. I've seen a steady increase in people joining and being active. I did the first "hangout" with my family this weekend, which was more fun than I expected. I've also had a steady stream of interesting content from some people I'm following. To some of the posts above about why Google+ is better, while the circles are good for filtering what you want to see in your stream they are better for organizing how you share information and updates. As an example, this weekend I took a short video of my son going down the slide at our pool and swimming to the side. I posted it to both facebook and Google+. On facebook, of course, it was spammed out to everyone I'm friends with, a good portion of which probably didn't really need to see it. On Google+, I was able to select my family circle and a few friends that I knew would be interested. Eventually I'll probably have a group designated for stuff like that, and others for various groups of mutual interest.

Hrm... Seems my experience is more in line with what's happening overall. Google+ is already seeing traffic slow. http://techcrunch.co...7/google-minus/

Oof... Just 2 months in. Do we have another wave on our hands?

Ah...but the difference is, in my mind, that it isn't 2 months in. Sure, it's been "available" for that long, but realistically, it has not been marketed and still isn't open except with an invitation (not that they are hard to come by.) We'll see what happens when Google actually starts pushing it and officially opens it up. I've heard rumors that the end of this month it'll be open, but we'll see, nothing specific. That would be just about right, as the furor of the early buzz dies down, to open it up to get things moving again. That would require Google to be thinking about how they are going to market this and keep the momentum going, but I think they are doing so.Either way, something tells me this is a project Google will push hard, and they haven't even really gotten started yet.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

In the last week, I've logged into FB about 15-20 times between my phone and my laptop. I've not logged into my G+ account once. Just logged in. 2 new "Friend" requests. Only 1 per son is actually posting anything out of the 25 or so friends. I think I'll give it another week before logging in again.

Totally opposite of my experience. I've seen a steady increase in people joining and being active. I did the first "hangout" with my family this weekend, which was more fun than I expected. I've also had a steady stream of interesting content from some people I'm following. To some of the posts above about why Google+ is better, while the circles are good for filtering what you want to see in your stream they are better for organizing how you share information and updates. As an example, this weekend I took a short video of my son going down the slide at our pool and swimming to the side. I posted it to both facebook and Google+. On facebook, of course, it was spammed out to everyone I'm friends with, a good portion of which probably didn't really need to see it. On Google+, I was able to select my family circle and a few friends that I knew would be interested. Eventually I'll probably have a group designated for stuff like that, and others for various groups of mutual interest.

Hrm... Seems my experience is more in line with what's happening overall. Google+ is already seeing traffic slow. http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/27/google-minus/Oof... Just 2 months in. Do we have another wave on our hands?

Maybe. I'm getting pretty bored with it. Everything seems to be happening on facebook, nothing going on with Google+The only good thing is I can now post a single update on G+ and it goes to both google and facebook at the same time.