Yeah, I'm not a ppr guy so that's taken me some getting used to. My overall thought is I want consistency more than anything and I always feel like the RBs give me more of that. But maybe not in ppr.
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Guillotine League Strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
- Start date
Yeah, I'm not a ppr guy so that's taken me some getting used to. My overall thought is I want consistency more than anything and I always feel like the RBs give me more of that. But maybe not in ppr.
Definitely not in PPR. Someone like waddle is worthless in non ppr. But when you get 10 catches for 50 yards that’s 15 points…. Rb would have to score a td and 100 yards for that.
Cruised through this week with the high score (and Deebo yet to play). I like that much better than sweating it out.
The chop is already decided. The following will be available:
QB - R.Wilson, J.Burrow (interestingly, this guy could have had Mahomes the week I got him, but went for Burrow instead, and it cost him this week with Burrow on bye and Wilson laying an egg)
RB - Ekeler, Barkley, Dillon, M.Carter
WR - D.Metcalf, AJ Brown
Ekeler and Dillon (depending on the A.Jones prognosis) are interesting. Think I'll stay away from everyone else.
nice. I made it too.. second highest. Conner looked fine and lamb was an amazing pickup but hockenson zero was head scratching. Unfortunately the guy who picked up Jones picked up Dillon so he’s fine.
I’d probably bid a dollar or two on all of them besides qb. These guys are definitely improvements over tannenhill who should be dropped as you don’t need 3 and offense looks terrible without Henry. Got to be feeling good about mahomes now huh lol. Every qb has down games.
sanders and waddle aren’t as good as brown metcalf imo. Not sure when ceh comes back but Carter is probably better ros than Williams if he becomes backup again. Barkley too assuming he plays next week. Worth a dollar in case they fall through.
Yeah, good point. But Waddle is very consistent and Metcalf and Brown not as much IMO.
Call me a little stitious, but the Barkley owner has been eliminated 4 or 5 times now.
Lol. That's fine to be a little superstitious. FF is all luck so maybe it's right to be a little superstitious lol.
I just try to seek value everywhere and I think he's close to coming back so I think he's worth a shot based on elite upside if gotten cheaply. McCaffrey came back and is doing well. Montgomery too probably. Probably costed people a lot of losses too. Dalvin Cook actually ate the most FAAB but I'd still take a shot on him too.
Waddle is a player that can help you survive, but I don't think he's someone that can help you win. I might keep him until week 14 but I don't know that I'd keep him in playoffs where point total matters more. I do think Metcalf is consistent though. Way more consistent than Lockett. He gets a lot of opportunities as the WR1 for Seattle. I think he's a great buy-low. AJ Brown I am still holding highly. I know he sucked last two games but I believe in talent and opportunity and he has what it takes to end up top 5 end of year. If I have to sit him until he proves it fine, but I don't write him off based on a couple bad games when they have no other options at WR because eventually he'll feast. Again, not giving up a lot for these guys cause there are better options but I'm always willing to put in a few bucks for a what the heck bench play.
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chopped team
Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
Darrell Henderson
D'Andre Swift
Antonio Gibson
Ja'Marr Chase
DK Metcalf
Marquise Brown
Me and 3 other teams have 300ish.
I don’t need a qb but I’m not opposed to upgrading burrow to mahomes or Stafford for cheap. Just don’t want others to get them for nothing.
wide receivers im going to bid on to replace Lockett. I think any of them would be an improvement and I have to start one next week with kupp off. May also be in permanent lineup over aj brown if he keeps putting up stinkers
running backs I like swift because he’s consistent and normally I’d like Henderson but he’s on bye. I’ll probably bid slightly less for Henderson than swift.
Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
Darrell Henderson
D'Andre Swift
Antonio Gibson
Ja'Marr Chase
DK Metcalf
Marquise Brown
Me and 3 other teams have 300ish.
I don’t need a qb but I’m not opposed to upgrading burrow to mahomes or Stafford for cheap. Just don’t want others to get them for nothing.
wide receivers im going to bid on to replace Lockett. I think any of them would be an improvement and I have to start one next week with kupp off. May also be in permanent lineup over aj brown if he keeps putting up stinkers
running backs I like swift because he’s consistent and normally I’d like Henderson but he’s on bye. I’ll probably bid slightly less for Henderson than swift.
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Waivers came through. I got Chase and Henderson. Left money on the table with Henderson. I could have gotten him for less than 31.
Swift 153 / 123 (2nd was me)
Chase 77 (me) / 73
Metcalf 68 / 60
Marquise Brown 60 / 42
Henderson 53/ 31 (I was both..... So someone bid less than 31 or zero)
Antonio Gibson 42 / 40
Mahomes 30 / 11 (me)
Final roster:
QB Lamar
RB Conner
RB Harris
WR Justin Jefferson
WR Chase
FLEX AJ Brown
FLEX Ceedee Lamb
TE Hockenson
BE Kupp
BE Burrow
BE Barkley
BE Henderson
BE Stevenson
BE AP
FAAB:
276
259
202 (me)
171
19
4
3
1
Here were ours:
Ekeler 100/90
Dionte Johnson 65/2 (I was 2nd)
AJ Brown 30/6
Metcalf 19/3
A.Dillon 9/4
M.Carter 3
Burrow 2/1
One of the lower teams had the most money and he snagged Ekeler and Johnson. Brown, Metcalf, and Dillon went to the best team in the league.
105
67
60
42 (me)
2
0
0
0
Ekeler 100/90
Dionte Johnson 65/2 (I was 2nd)
AJ Brown 30/6
Metcalf 19/3
A.Dillon 9/4
M.Carter 3
Burrow 2/1
One of the lower teams had the most money and he snagged Ekeler and Johnson. Brown, Metcalf, and Dillon went to the best team in the league.
105
67
60
42 (me)
2
0
0
0
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Wow. I'm surprised people would go all in with Ekeler with 3 weeks left. As good as Ekeler is I'd probably still want FAAB for next 3 weeks.
Is the best team in the league the one with 105? The best team definitely gets a lot stronger.
I think you're in good position to pounce on stuff for the last 3 weeks. Probably get good value.
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I put a little on Ekeler, but the more I looked at it the more I wanted my $ for the next few weeks, like you said.
Yes, the best team still has $105 left.
That's a good move. I was looking at who was likely to drop the next 3 weeks when factoring in my bids. Only 2 teams out there that can drop have guys i might want over Chase. Adams/Goodwin owner and Diggs/Hill owner. And they both have good enough teams that I think 1 of them will make it to week 14.
I think Kamara/Eckeler is going to drop as well as the McCaffrey/Robinson teams so there were options at RB. There teams are very bad. Though I love Swifts playoff schedule.
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I did the same. I think the McCaffrey/Hill could go soon, so I'm holding off for that.
But Ekeler is the #3 RB in ppg so you can't fault someone for that.
So you rolling with Harris tonight? If I put him in my lineup it would be over A.Cooper and Waddle.
Just read that the Chiefs could sit CEH one more week, which also keeps Darrel Williams possibly in play for me.
I think so. Him over Barkley. Close call but it seems so obvious patriots shut down Atlanta and run it. Harris didn’t lose his role. At most it’s a time share. But even against Atlanta it’s a great matchup….
Had another near-death experience but was already through on Sunday night, with three others battling it out on Monday night. Some big names available this week:
QB - J.Allen, K.Murray
RB - C.Patterson, Kamara
WR - C.Kupp
Money remaining:
95 (best team in league)
67 (one of the worst teams all season who picked up Ekeler and Dionte Johnson last week and finished tops this week)
42 (me)
2
0
0
0
So I fully expect the best team to pick up at least Kupp and maybe more. It's been his world and we're just living in it. The good news is that anyone he drops is likely an immediate add on any other team, including mine.
QB - J.Allen, K.Murray
RB - C.Patterson, Kamara
WR - C.Kupp
Money remaining:
95 (best team in league)
67 (one of the worst teams all season who picked up Ekeler and Dionte Johnson last week and finished tops this week)
42 (me)
2
0
0
0
So I fully expect the best team to pick up at least Kupp and maybe more. It's been his world and we're just living in it. The good news is that anyone he drops is likely an immediate add on any other team, including mine.
Ceedee Lamb getting injured and Dan Arnold disappearing killed me this week. Went from highest scoring team all season to out. Ugh
ETA: For strategy don't use players getting injured early in a game and make sure all your players touch the ball during the game.
ETA: For strategy don't use players getting injured early in a game and make sure all your players touch the ball during the game.
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Sorry man that sucks. It’s so random. I had an nde and just barely edged out last place.
lamar last minute out made me start burrow who stunk.
ceedee got injured and out early.
aj brown injured and out early.
Harris splitting Carries with stevenson
almost killed me this week.
Kamara and Patterson because they are injured I’d probably go less. Don’t know if they play this week.
kupp is worth it. Best player of ant position. I don’t let him go cheap.
Ended up overpaying on Robinson lol. 42/11. Has good matchup this week and in playoffs.
Kupp $42/34 (I got him!! Now wishing I would have held a couple $ back)
Kamara $36/20 (to the best team, I put the 20 down)
J.Allen $16/5 (to the best team, I put the 5 down)
Thielen $2/0
I'm guessing it was the best team who went for Kupp as well but was trying to hold a little back. He dropped Dillon to pick up Kamara. I'm out of $ but I think it was worth it to pick up the #1 player. Only two weeks of pickups left anyway and will come down to matchups soon anyway I think.
Kamara $36/20 (to the best team, I put the 20 down)
J.Allen $16/5 (to the best team, I put the 5 down)
Thielen $2/0
I'm guessing it was the best team who went for Kupp as well but was trying to hold a little back. He dropped Dillon to pick up Kamara. I'm out of $ but I think it was worth it to pick up the #1 player. Only two weeks of pickups left anyway and will come down to matchups soon anyway I think.
My guillotine lineup this week looked good coming in. Russ or Burrow at QB, Swift, Montgomery and Mixon at RB, Jefferson, Diggs and Keenan Allen at WR, and Waller at TE. Already lost 2 to injuries, and even Montgomery limped off for a couple of plays. Is it possible every one of my players can get hurt this week?
Already lost Henry earlier, and Michael Carter this week as well. Montgomery got hurt after the first week I got him, too.
Already lost Henry earlier, and Michael Carter this week as well. Montgomery got hurt after the first week I got him, too.
There were only 4 players picked up yesterday with bids, and only 1 today. So all those other guys were available.
Assuming you made it this week with Patterson deebo kupp waddle doing well.zed2283 said:
I made it this week but barely. Team that spent everything on mccaffrey last week may be out this one. If so, Jonathan Taylor will be on the block so I probably will go all in for him… even though he has a bye. Also has Mitchell which I am liking over mccaffrey.
you can sign up on guillotineleagues.com. They have a podcast there. There’s also a reddit with like 3 posts… mostly not useful lol. Probably Twitter If you know how to use that. Otherwise I’m happy to impart my knowledge. What you really need to understand is the value of every player at any point in the year. So think auction draft but every week. I have 3 guys I originally drafted. Others have 7. Some spent big bucks early on and have none now. I spent throughout year and have some left. If you pick the right players you can’t go wrong. You just have more chances to pick the right players with new studs on waiver each week.
what is interesting is how everyone values players. You see some deep biases in some of these bids. Sometimes players are completely overlooked because of a bad game or short term injury. Others have irrational bids based on name brand. It’s hard not to have bias but because others have bias, There is more skill involved as you can exploit the biases.
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TheWinz
Footballguy
Thanx! Should be real fun for me then, since I have never done an auction draft, nor have I done anything except normal waiver wire. At least the vultures can pick my team apart in week 4 when I blow my entire wad in the first 2 weeks.
Not sure if reading through this thread might help, but you can see some of our thought processes throughout this year.
I actually sat Waddle for Patterson this week. Starting to get hard to figure out who to sit and who to start.
Totally makes sense to go all-in on Taylor. Could be a league winner.
The McCaffrey owner (blew all his money on him right off the bat and has been waiting for his return) is likely out this week in my league also. I had been saving my money earlier anticipating this but he outlasted me. He's got McCaffrey, Brady, and Tyreek. Only two teams have $ left so they'll get what they want.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Here's a taste for you. If you were in my shoes how would you play this. This monster team is probably going to get cut this week.
waiver chopped team:
Dak Prescott
Christian McCaffrey
Jonathan Taylor
Devonta Smith
Mike Evans
Antonio Gibson
Terry McLuarin
George Kittle
Kareem Hunt
Josh Jacobs
Elijah Mitchell
Antonio Brown
Mike WIlliams
Deandre Hopkins
other players on waiver:
AJ Brown (i dropped)
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool
Hunter Renfrow
Darnell Mooney
Alexander Mattison
Chubba Hubbard
Jamaal Williams
FAAB is:
260
158 (me)
145
19
1
0
Your roster is:
QB Lamar Jackson
RB Barkley
RB Robinson
WR Ja'Marr Chase
WR Justin Jefferson
FLEX Darrell Henderson
FLEX Cooper Kupp
TE Hockenson
BENCH Burrow
BENCH James Conner
BENCH Ceedee Lamb
BENCH Damien Harris
BENCH Jerry Jeudy
BENCH Goedert
I think I can drop the 3 bolded guys from my roster for the guys above. However, there is still one more week of bidding after this week. So I have to weigh the opportunity cost of forgoing bidding on next week's top pickup. I believe the most likely team to drop next week has Brady/Ekeler/Waller/Keenan Allen/Kamara.
Given the information above, who would you bid for and how much? Keep in mind, McCaffrey on bye next week and Taylor is on bye in week 14. If you lose any week you are gone and roster lock after Week 14 is over.
Right now I am assuming the leader will pay 159 for Jonathan Taylor. If he doesn't, he is an idiot. It's an obvious play and I would go all in to prevent the guy below me from getting him since he would also be desperate for Taylor.
Likely scenario is how much do I bid on RBs like Moore etc. I'm thinking the 1st place high FAAB bids 159 on Taylor so he'll have 101 left. He may or may not bid any further. So I want to not bid more than 56 (total) so I have first shot at Eckeler. Or maybe I don't do that and try to complete my team this week and get Mitchell for sure and not let 3rd FAAB team get him.
Tough decisions...
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McCaffrey went on IR so forget that. I really like your idea of holding back for Ekeler.
TheWinz
Footballguy
No clue what I am doing. Let me ask - what is the scoring, PPR or no? I assume .1 per yard rushing and receiving, but the PPR makes a huge difference, because you have 2 flex spots. Also, if it is PPR, is it 1 for everyone, or .5 RB, 1 WR, and 1.5 TE?
Well exercise is moot, Gibson went off and he's still alive lol. It's PPR 1 for everyone. Interceptions and fumbles don't count as negatives so Lamar actually had a decent 17 point game despite having 4 interceptions. I guess it's just super frustrating to have been safe and then have points taken away.
TheWinz
Footballguy
please don't tell me you are chopped instead of him? And if he isn't chopped, what does the chopped guy's roster look like?
No, I'm 5/7. Very close... It was a terrible week for me. Only scored 109. We're at a point where you need the following as a baseline or you are chopped.
QB - 20
RB - 15
RB - 15
WR - 10
WR - 10
FLEX - 10
FLEX - 10
TE - 10
Total 100 floor
So really, what I've been trying to do is upgrade to safe players without boom or bust. A guy that can give you a zero is lethal at this point in the year.
This guys roster was always weak. Was surprising he survived this far.
Ekeler
Kamara
Brady
Keenan Allen
D. Waller
Freeman
Bateman
Aiyuk
E. Moore
C. Edmonds
Tim Patrick
Van Jefferson
Marquez Callaway
Zach Ertz
Top 5 bold are the guys I'd probably go after. Brady/Allen/Waller are mainly depth though so probably bid cheap. Not sure if Allen that much of an upgrade over Lamb/Chase so probably just depth.
The question is how much to bid for Ekeler and Kamara. Ekeler becomes the all in play. If I don't get him, then do I go all in on Kamara or bid lower and allow the other guy the opportunity to get him and then take my chances next week
(Top RBs for other teams equals = Mixon/Fournette or Patterson / Taylor / N. Harris / Swift or Aaron Jones).
Guy with 3rd in FAAB is hurt at RB so I may want to block him...
Swift - out next week
AJ Dillon/Jones - bye
He's stuck playing both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.
So he'll probably go after Mattison/hubbard/williams in that order if he doesn't get Kamara.
I also think #1 in FAAB goes after Ekeler. His RBs are N. Harris, Chubb, and Elliot. Can't imagine he doesn't.
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TheWinz
Footballguy
Thoughts
- Keenan is the 3rd most targeted WR, behind only Kupp and Tyreek, and in the 5 games since his week 7 bye, he has outdistanced himself from teammate Mike Williams. You said you wanted safe players without boom/bust. Keenan is one of only 6 WR's to score double digit PPR in every game he has played (and he's played them all). You already own one of them (Kupp), and the others are Deebo (may be missing time now with a gonadial issue), Davante (but he did miss a game, and still has a bye), Diontae (missed a game, but has been a target hog), and Ridley (no comment). If you want a safe floor, his is actually safer than both Chase and Jefferson. Keenan, Jefferson, and Chase have all played 11 games, and here is how they compare:
Keenan - 81 catches, 116 targets, 895 yards, 2 TD's
Jefferson - 67 catches, 98 targets, 1027 yards, 6 TD's
Chase - 50 catches, 82 targets, 906 yards, 8 TD's
I think you can get Keenan for a decent price, and he is a starter on your team IMO. It's not like I am saying start Cole Beasley over Chase because he has more catches. Keenan is WR11, and his per game PPR is .69 different from Chase (WR8). If I am looking for a safe floor, do I want the guy with 50 catches and 8 TD's, or the guy with 81 catches and 2 TD's?
I will stop now and post this, then move on to more thoughts...
- Keenan is the 3rd most targeted WR, behind only Kupp and Tyreek, and in the 5 games since his week 7 bye, he has outdistanced himself from teammate Mike Williams. You said you wanted safe players without boom/bust. Keenan is one of only 6 WR's to score double digit PPR in every game he has played (and he's played them all). You already own one of them (Kupp), and the others are Deebo (may be missing time now with a gonadial issue), Davante (but he did miss a game, and still has a bye), Diontae (missed a game, but has been a target hog), and Ridley (no comment). If you want a safe floor, his is actually safer than both Chase and Jefferson. Keenan, Jefferson, and Chase have all played 11 games, and here is how they compare:
Keenan - 81 catches, 116 targets, 895 yards, 2 TD's
Jefferson - 67 catches, 98 targets, 1027 yards, 6 TD's
Chase - 50 catches, 82 targets, 906 yards, 8 TD's
I think you can get Keenan for a decent price, and he is a starter on your team IMO. It's not like I am saying start Cole Beasley over Chase because he has more catches. Keenan is WR11, and his per game PPR is .69 different from Chase (WR8). If I am looking for a safe floor, do I want the guy with 50 catches and 8 TD's, or the guy with 81 catches and 2 TD's?
I will stop now and post this, then move on to more thoughts...
TheWinz
Footballguy
Keeping the discussion about WR's here. Your current 5 are:
Cooper Kupp - He is a must start from now til the end, barring injury. Only 8 WR's have more targets than he has receptions! His closest PPR RB is Jonathan Taylor (RB1), and he has him beat, as JT still has his bye in week 14.
Justin Jefferson - Had a 2 game target drought in weeks 8 & 9, but still only 1 game below 12 FP. He is WR5 and a must start. With a weekly average of 18.95, his closest RB comp is Mixon (RB3 - 19.6).
Ja'Marr Chase - Kinda boom/busty with his gaudy YPC, but can't ignore WR8 = a strong flex whose closest RB PPR competitors are D'Andre (RB7) and Zeke (RB8).
CeeDee Lamb - He and Chase are very similar. Both with great YPC and TD's, but not exactly what you would call safe. Still, if your WR4 is a guy like Lamb (WR18 with a missed game), I envy you.
Jerry Jeudy - He is clearly your WR5, so you will be in dire straits if you have to start him. He is a worthy candidate to be swapped out.
And here are the waiver WR's you mentioned:
Keenan Allen - As I said, if you land him, I would consider him a must start on your team, along with Kupp and Jefferson.
Bateman, Aiyuk, E. Moore, Patrick, V. Jefferson, Callaway - None of these guys make your roster. They just aren't the caliber of the guys you already have.
If you could swap Jeudy for Allen, I think it would be hard to find another team left with a corps as strong as yours. As a matter of fact, you may already have the strongest bunch at WR.
I know people love starting RB's in the flex spots, but with all the injuries this year, WR's may be the way to go.
Cooper Kupp - He is a must start from now til the end, barring injury. Only 8 WR's have more targets than he has receptions! His closest PPR RB is Jonathan Taylor (RB1), and he has him beat, as JT still has his bye in week 14.
Justin Jefferson - Had a 2 game target drought in weeks 8 & 9, but still only 1 game below 12 FP. He is WR5 and a must start. With a weekly average of 18.95, his closest RB comp is Mixon (RB3 - 19.6).
Ja'Marr Chase - Kinda boom/busty with his gaudy YPC, but can't ignore WR8 = a strong flex whose closest RB PPR competitors are D'Andre (RB7) and Zeke (RB8).
CeeDee Lamb - He and Chase are very similar. Both with great YPC and TD's, but not exactly what you would call safe. Still, if your WR4 is a guy like Lamb (WR18 with a missed game), I envy you.
Jerry Jeudy - He is clearly your WR5, so you will be in dire straits if you have to start him. He is a worthy candidate to be swapped out.
And here are the waiver WR's you mentioned:
Keenan Allen - As I said, if you land him, I would consider him a must start on your team, along with Kupp and Jefferson.
Bateman, Aiyuk, E. Moore, Patrick, V. Jefferson, Callaway - None of these guys make your roster. They just aren't the caliber of the guys you already have.
If you could swap Jeudy for Allen, I think it would be hard to find another team left with a corps as strong as yours. As a matter of fact, you may already have the strongest bunch at WR.
I know people love starting RB's in the flex spots, but with all the injuries this year, WR's may be the way to go.
