Guillotine League Strategy (1 Viewer)

[tigerz]

Keeping the discussion about WR's here.  Your current 5 are:

Cooper Kupp - He is a must start from now til the end, barring injury.  Only 8 WR's have more targets than he has receptions!  His closest PPR RB is Jonathan Taylor (RB1), and he has him beat, as JT still has his bye in week 14.

Justin Jefferson - Had a 2 game target drought in weeks 8 & 9, but still only 1 game below 12 FP.  He is WR5 and a must start.  With a weekly average of 18.95, his closest RB comp is Mixon (RB3 - 19.6).

Ja'Marr Chase - Kinda boom/busty with his gaudy YPC, but can't ignore WR8 = a strong flex whose closest RB PPR competitors are D'Andre (RB7) and Zeke (RB8).

CeeDee Lamb - He and Chase are very similar.  Both with great YPC and TD's, but not exactly what you would call safe.  Still, if your WR4 is a guy like Lamb (WR18 with a missed game), I envy you.

Jerry Jeudy - He is clearly your WR5, so you will be in dire straits if you have to start him.  He is a worthy candidate to be swapped out.

And here are the waiver WR's you mentioned:

Keenan Allen - As I said, if you land him, I would consider him a must start on your team, along with Kupp and Jefferson.

Bateman, Aiyuk, E. Moore, Patrick, V. Jefferson, Callaway - None of these guys make your roster.  They just aren't the caliber of the guys you already have.

If you could swap Jeudy for Allen, I think it would be hard to find another team left with a corps as strong as yours.  As a matter of fact, you may already have the strongest bunch at WR.

I know people love starting RB's in the flex spots, but with all the injuries this year, WR's may be the way to go.

Thank you for this very thorough analysis. You and I are on the same page. I had gone 4 WR in this draft and bidded on star WRs throughout the weekly waivers because of the discrepancy between valuation of RBs/WRs. Cooper Kupp was drafted as my WR4 which I chose over Henderson and Damien Harris (which I now have). AJ Brown was actually my 5th WR on my bench until he got put on IR so I dropped him. Otherwise I never really planned on getting another WR. Similarly dropped Lockett because of his boom bust nature.

FAAB Prices tend to be as follows:
Elite RBs always went for 200/300/400 and now go for 150.
Elite WRs comparatively went for 100/150/250 and now go for around 50-75. 

Now I'm thinking maybe I go for Allen and assume the other guys will go all in on Ekeler and Kamara. Then just make sure I don't bid over $56 for Allen so I have highest FAAB for next week and pick the elite RB that week. WRs at Allens level generally went for $70 last week so this should be enough. Probably even less if the guys go all in on the RBs.

I do have the strongest WR core. Everyone else is starting RBs in their flex except the guy who has Diggs/Hill/Thielen and another who has M. Brown/D. Johnson/Cooks/Pittman/Moore. I've been waiting for Diggs/Hill/Adams to drop versus picking up Keenan but it's not a given that those guys will drop next week. 

I think you'll really enjoy and thrive on guillotine league. This type of analysis has value there. People generally don't care about other stud players they will never get but guillotine makes comparing stud players extremely important. People who put forth effort are rewarded with the skill advantage required for this format.


 

 

[zed2283]

I'm out of money now, thanks to getting Kupp last week.  So I can't get any of these guys but still going to put it out there for the thread.  The team that got chopped last week lasted longer than I thought, and here's who of interest is now available:

QB - Brady
RB - Gibson, Hunt, Gaskin
WR - Tyreek, Claypool, E.Moore, AB

Brady and Tyreek are the only ones who would interest me, but there are only two guys left with $ and they will have their pick of the litter.

My current roster:

QB - Mahomes, Hurts (neither of whom I trust)
RB - Najee (losing trust), Patterson, Robinson, D.Harris, Dillon
WR - Kupp, Deebo, Diggs, Waddle, Cooper
TE - Gronk (sooo nice to finally get him in my lineup last week), Pitts

Maybe @TheWinzcan help me figure out who to start.  This week looks brutal.

 

[tigerz]

I'm out of money now, thanks to getting Kupp last week.  So I can't get any of these guys but still going to put it out there for the thread.  The team that got chopped last week lasted longer than I thought, and here's who of interest is now available:

QB - Brady
RB - Gibson, Hunt, Gaskin
WR - Tyreek, Claypool, E.Moore, AB

Brady and Tyreek are the only ones who would interest me, but there are only two guys left with $ and they will have their pick of the litter.

My current roster:

QB - Mahomes, Hurts (neither of whom I trust)
RB - Najee (losing trust), Patterson, Robinson, D.Harris, Dillon
WR - Kupp, Deebo, Diggs, Waddle, Cooper
TE - Gronk (sooo nice to finally get him in my lineup last week), Pitts

Maybe @TheWinzcan help me figure out who to start.  This week looks brutal.

You don't have to worry. Kupp is better than Tyreek so you made the right move. Especially since you have Mahomes... Would not want to start both when Mahomes has a down game. Plus Getting both would be impossible. 
Kupp/Deebo/Diggs/(Waddle/Cooper) as WR4 is better than  me. Deebo is so amazing. Can't believe you ever considered sitting him lol. Injury sucks, but he'll be back soon. Kupp/Deebo/Diggs always must start.

Najee and Patterson always start. Last week was a freak game that got away from them fast. I would take Najee in a heartbeat.

FLEX will usually be one of Kupp/Deebo/Diggs and the second flex is probably rotating between Robinson/Waddle/Cooper.

Harris and Dillon are in timeshare so I don't think you can star them as anything more than FLEX in a good matchup when they will clearly get most carries.

You may still get Brady. Though i think all QBs have had down games. Safest is probably Allen. Lamar's last game was terrible.... 

My philosophy for sit/start was to upgrade WR players to always starts so I don't have to think about it much. Then only have 2 RBs and play the matchups. It's easier to play the matchup with RBs... Very hard with WRs. Winz is right that volume and receptions gives you a safe floor and is more predictable so they are more matchup proof in that 7 receptions for 50 yards is still 12 points. 

For me it's about relying on predictable trends. a RB2 with volume against a bad rushing D is predictable. a WR1 with volume against any D is predictable  since they will always get their 7 receptions. Predicting RB injuries is impossible so you want depth rather than all in. Predicting TDs / long catches / etc are too hard. Rather have opponents rely on that and get boom bust games and get chopped.

 

[zed2283]

You don't have to worry. Kupp is better than Tyreek so you made the right move. Especially since you have Mahomes... Would not want to start both when Mahomes has a down game. Plus Getting both would be impossible. 
Kupp/Deebo/Diggs/(Waddle/Cooper) as WR4 is better than  me. Deebo is so amazing. Can't believe you ever considered sitting him lol. Injury sucks, but he'll be back soon. Kupp/Deebo/Diggs always must start.

Najee and Patterson always start. Last week was a freak game that got away from them fast. I would take Najee in a heartbeat.

FLEX will usually be one of Kupp/Deebo/Diggs and the second flex is probably rotating between Robinson/Waddle/Cooper.

Harris and Dillon are in timeshare so I don't think you can star them as anything more than FLEX in a good matchup when they will clearly get most carries.

You may still get Brady. Though i think all QBs have had down games. Safest is probably Allen. Lamar's last game was terrible.... 

My philosophy for sit/start was to upgrade WR players to always starts so I don't have to think about it much. Then only have 2 RBs and play the matchups. It's easier to play the matchup with RBs... Very hard with WRs. Winz is right that volume and receptions gives you a safe floor and is more predictable so they are more matchup proof in that 7 receptions for 50 yards is still 12 points. 

For me it's about relying on predictable trends. a RB2 with volume against a bad rushing D is predictable. a WR1 with volume against any D is predictable  since they will always get their 7 receptions. Predicting RB injuries is impossible so you want depth rather than all in. Predicting TDs / long catches / etc are too hard. Rather have opponents rely on that and get boom bust games and get chopped.

That's pretty much how I'm set up, I just don't like the matchups this week.  There's a lot of red on my lineup screen lol.

I've got Waddle in over Cooper.  Cooper can have an occasional big game, but Waddle is more dependable.

I could put Cooper in over Robinson this week I suppose (Cooper is green, Robinson plays the Rams) but I'm not sure.

 

[tigerz]

That's pretty much how I'm set up, I just don't like the matchups this week.  There's a lot of red on my lineup screen lol.

I've got Waddle in over Cooper.  Cooper can have an occasional big game, but Waddle is more dependable.

I could put Cooper in over Robinson this week I suppose (Cooper is green, Robinson plays the Rams) but I'm not sure.

I thought Cooper was out?

says he's expected to sit out. he's not feeling well.

 

[zed2283]

I thought Cooper was out?

says he's expected to sit out. he's not feeling well.

Ah ok, well I guess my lineup sets itself this week.

Except for Mahomes vs. Hurts.  Ugh.

 

[TheWinz]

Sorry, haven't spent much time online.  Anyway, moving on from WR's to TE's, which shouldn't take too long.  Your duo is Hockenson and Goedert.  The chopped team had Waller and Ertz.  First things first.  The only TE worthy of flex consideration with your awesome WR's is Kelce, so even if you managed to snag Kelce and Andrews/Waller, you'd be better off putting Kelce in as TE and playing keep away with the other guy.  That said, I obviously prefer Waller over Hockenson, but would find it hard to bid much on him.  Your RB's need replenishing from some chopped teams, and you will need the bucks.  I do see Ertz as and upgrade over Goedert, simply because Goedert can completely disappear when PHI decides to run 50 times in a row.  I wouldn't bid anything on him though, and possibly get him free on waivers.  If not, no big deal, he is only a backup to Hockenson.

In a nutshell, with Waller listed as week-to-week right now, I would trust Hockenson and bide my time for the next stud RB.  In the meantime, maybe you can upgrade your backup TE for free.

 

[TheWinz]

Moving on to the QB's, this again should be relatively quick.  You have Lamar and Burrow.  There are only 6 teams left, correct?  And of those 6, are they all carrying 2 QB's?  I am asking because Burrow may not be any better than someone free on the wire right now.  Also, do you plan on picking between Lamar and Burrow based on matchups, or is Burrow just taking up space?  If Lamar is your weekly starter, why not drop Burrow and pick up a RB?  If Lamar goes down, or if you hate his matchup, guys like Carr or Wentz will be free on the wire, right?  I know you said play safe, and with Lamar's rushing, isn't he safer than Burrow?  Just wondering why you are rostering a backup to Lamar, when the wire should basically have all QB's ranked 10 and below for free?  

 

[TheWinz]

OK, I left for RB's for last, because they are the hardest calls to make.  No offense, but your RB's leave alot to be desired.  If I saw this bunch, I would assume you were chopped weeks ago.   

RB Darrell Henderson - Quad may keep him out this week, and that makes me nervous about starting him even if he is active.  The floor can get pretty low when you only play a few snaps and then call it a day. 

RB James Robinson - He is like Antonio Gibson.  He's putting up decent numbers, but there's always the threat of him sitting out at the last minute.  It seems like he is a game time decision every week.  One thing I do like is he has limited his snap count while maintaining his touches.  Stay upright, James. 

RB James Conner - Chase Edmonds due back soon.  As a pair, Chase (12.48) and Conner (11.53) combined for 24 FP per game.  In 3 games without, Conner is scoring 25.5.  Alone I would be happy to start him, but in your league, a guy getting 12 touches a game doesn't cut it.

RB Saquon Barkley - I've been bashing Saquon pretty hard in his thread.  I think he runs tentative now, almost like he expects to get injured again.  I just don't trust him, but sure, if he is in the right mindset, he can be a beast again.  For now, I only have as much confidence in him as he has in himself.

RB Damien Harris - The only thing worse than my hatred for the Patriots, is my hatred of fantasy RB's for the Patriots.  Belichick laughs as 4 NE RB's are ranked in the top 36 every week.  Heck, even his WR's and TE's seem to be like that now.  Belichick is an Omen, so it's no wonder his top RB is named Damien.

If I had to choose, I am starting the James's this week.

 

[TheWinz]

Curious as to how the FAAB process went.  Fill us in...

 

[Hurl Bruce]

Waivers ran for my league.  Jonathan Taylor and Tyreek Hill both went for $51.  Keenan $12.  Mitchell $10.  Barkley $0.

It's really funny to see how prices just bottom out when teams have little to no money.

 

[zed2283]

Moving on to the QB's, this again should be relatively quick.  You have Lamar and Burrow.  There are only 6 teams left, correct?  And of those 6, are they all carrying 2 QB's?  I am asking because Burrow may not be any better than someone free on the wire right now.  Also, do you plan on picking between Lamar and Burrow based on matchups, or is Burrow just taking up space?  If Lamar is your weekly starter, why not drop Burrow and pick up a RB?  If Lamar goes down, or if you hate his matchup, guys like Carr or Wentz will be free on the wire, right?  I know you said play safe, and with Lamar's rushing, isn't he safer than Burrow?  Just wondering why you are rostering a backup to Lamar, when the wire should basically have all QB's ranked 10 and below for free?  

One thing to keep in mind is that rosters lock after week 14.

 

[tigerz]

Moving on to the QB's, this again should be relatively quick.  You have Lamar and Burrow.  There are only 6 teams left, correct?  And of those 6, are they all carrying 2 QB's?  I am asking because Burrow may not be any better than someone free on the wire right now.  Also, do you plan on picking between Lamar and Burrow based on matchups, or is Burrow just taking up space?  If Lamar is your weekly starter, why not drop Burrow and pick up a RB?  If Lamar goes down, or if you hate his matchup, guys like Carr or Wentz will be free on the wire, right?  I know you said play safe, and with Lamar's rushing, isn't he safer than Burrow?  Just wondering why you are rostering a backup to Lamar, when the wire should basically have all QB's ranked 10 and below for free?  

Yeah its pretty much backup because rosters lock after week 14 games and playoffs run from 15-17 with no waiver or free agency. Just most points between those weeks takes 1-4. No more chopping at that point. Zed's league also locks but his is last man standing and you still get chopped each week.

You basically need a second QB in case of injury. Everyone needs 2 QBs for this reason so that makes picking up Brady an option but I may not bid much as others have Murray/Allen and Stafford/Herbert etc.

 

[tigerz]

OK, I left for RB's for last, because they are the hardest calls to make.  No offense, but your RB's leave alot to be desired.  If I saw this bunch, I would assume you were chopped weeks ago.   

RB Darrell Henderson - Quad may keep him out this week, and that makes me nervous about starting him even if he is active.  The floor can get pretty low when you only play a few snaps and then call it a day. 

RB James Robinson - He is like Antonio Gibson.  He's putting up decent numbers, but there's always the threat of him sitting out at the last minute.  It seems like he is a game time decision every week.  One thing I do like is he has limited his snap count while maintaining his touches.  Stay upright, James. 

RB James Conner - Chase Edmonds due back soon.  As a pair, Chase (12.48) and Conner (11.53) combined for 24 FP per game.  In 3 games without, Conner is scoring 25.5.  Alone I would be happy to start him, but in your league, a guy getting 12 touches a game doesn't cut it.

RB Saquon Barkley - I've been bashing Saquon pretty hard in his thread.  I think he runs tentative now, almost like he expects to get injured again.  I just don't trust him, but sure, if he is in the right mindset, he can be a beast again.  For now, I only have as much confidence in him as he has in himself.

RB Damien Harris - The only thing worse than my hatred for the Patriots, is my hatred of fantasy RB's for the Patriots.  Belichick laughs as 4 NE RB's are ranked in the top 36 every week.  Heck, even his WR's and TE's seem to be like that now.  Belichick is an Omen, so it's no wonder his top RB is named Damien.

If I had to choose, I am starting the James's this week.

I have not spent over $60 bucks for any RB. All the stud RBs went for $150. I actually drafted zero RBs (Ty'Son/Sermon/James White were my RBs for weeks 1-4). Then I picked up Harris for cheap and played him and some random weekly fill-ins like dernest while I ran with 4 WRs (lockett/kupp/brown/jefferson) who carried me. 

I'm pretty much riding Conner when he is alone and then playing matchups for the other guys. Only rolling with 2 RBs. Not having an elite RB makes me nervous but then again, not spending $150 on RBs is what is keeping me in contention because the guys who got chopped paid up big for Aaron Jones / Swift / Henry / Mccaffrey / Kamara. 

I do want Ekeler or Kamara for this reason as I think I can play the matchups with the other guy and leave these guys in as set it and forget it.

 

[zed2283]

I have not spent over $60 bucks for any RB. All the stud RBs went for $150. I actually drafted zero RBs (Ty'Son/Sermon/James White were my RBs for weeks 1-4). Then I picked up Harris for cheap and played him and some random weekly fill-ins like dernest while I ran with 4 WRs (lockett/kupp/brown/jefferson) who carried me. 

I'm pretty much riding Conner when he is alone and then playing matchups for the other guys. Only rolling with 2 RBs. Not having an elite RB makes me nervous but then again, not spending $150 on RBs is what is keeping me in contention because the guys who got chopped paid up big for Aaron Jones / Swift / Henry / Mccaffrey / Kamara. 

I do want Ekeler or Kamara for this reason as I think I can play the matchups with the other guy and leave these guys in as set it and forget it.

You're still gonna need a 3rd in case of injury.  Maybe two...

 

[TheWinz]

Yeah its pretty much backup because rosters lock after week 14 games and playoffs run from 15-17 with no waiver or free agency. Just most points between those weeks takes 1-4. No more chopping at that point. Zed's league also locks but his is last man standing and you still get chopped each week.

You basically need a second QB in case of injury. Everyone needs 2 QBs for this reason so that makes picking up Brady an option but I may not bid much as others have Murray/Allen and Stafford/Herbert etc.

Ahhh, I assumed remaining FAAB dollars disappeared after week 14, but the free waiver wire was still open.  My bad.  The yes, of course you need an escape plan at every position.  But, that still means you only need Lamar for weeks 13 & 14, then either buy week 14's chopped QB at the last possible week, or pick up the best QB left.  By then, besides your Lamar, only 6 other QB's will be rostered.  You could do the same at TE, as I hesitate to pay for Waller.

 

[TheWinz]

I have not spent over $60 bucks for any RB. All the stud RBs went for $150. I actually drafted zero RBs (Ty'Son/Sermon/James White were my RBs for weeks 1-4). Then I picked up Harris for cheap and played him and some random weekly fill-ins like dernest while I ran with 4 WRs (lockett/kupp/brown/jefferson) who carried me. 

I'm pretty much riding Conner when he is alone and then playing matchups for the other guys. Only rolling with 2 RBs. Not having an elite RB makes me nervous but then again, not spending $150 on RBs is what is keeping me in contention because the guys who got chopped paid up big for Aaron Jones / Swift / Henry / Mccaffrey / Kamara. 

I do want Ekeler or Kamara for this reason as I think I can play the matchups with the other guy and leave these guys in as set it and forget it.

So, your waivers haven't run yet?

 

[TheWinz]

Also, hoping you snagged Mattison.  He is quite startable for the next few games, even in your league.

 

[zed2283]

Ahhh, I assumed remaining FAAB dollars disappeared after week 14, but the free waiver wire was still open.  My bad.  The yes, of course you need an escape plan at every position.  But, that still means you only need Lamar for weeks 13 & 14, then either buy week 14's chopped QB at the last possible week, or pick up the best QB left.  By then, besides your Lamar, only 6 other QB's will be rostered.  You could do the same at TE, as I hesitate to pay for Waller.

There are no transactions after week 14, so you have to have your roster set going in.

 

[zed2283]

Our waivers ran and it went:

Tyreek $31/11 (to the best team, he dropped Metcalf)
Gibson $1

That leaves Brady available.

 

[zed2283]

One other thing to start thinking about with next week being the last week for pickups.  We don't have the "best" teams but, as always is the case in fantasy football, the best teams don't always win.  If I get through this week, my plan will be to try to lay out my lineups for the remaining 4 weeks (14-17) based on matchups.  And that could mean dropping better players for lesser players with better matchups in certain weeks (or maybe even one week).  The benches are pretty small and I'm not sure if I can really pull it off, but I'm going to have a long look at it (again, if I make it through this week, which is a big if given the matchups).

 

[tigerz]

Curious as to how the FAAB process went.  Fill us in...

Guys I messed up again... Overpaid on the 2nd best RB again and I wasn't able to keep highest FAAB for next week. Also missed out on Allen...

Ekeler - 159 / 151 (me)
Kamara - 81 (me) / 10
Mattison 75 / 11 (me) (dropped DJ Moore)
Allen 60 / 59 (i bid 40) (dropped Pittman)
Waller 11 (me) / 4
Brady 4 (me) / 2
Hunter Renfrow 4 / 1 (dropped Cooks)
Tee Higgins 1 (dropped Mccaffrey)

FAAB 
101
62 (me)
6
3
1
0

So I am guaranteed 2nd best drop next week or if I'm lucky the 101 guy will drop and he has an amazing roster and Ekeler. Then I pretty much locked it up.

Seriously wish I bid 11 on Kamara though... Had a feeling this would happen and fought the urge to drop my bid.

QB Brady
RB Robinson
RB Conner
WR Lamb
WR Jefferson
FLEX Kupp
FLEX Kamara
TE Hockenson
QB Lamar
QB Burrow
RB Barkley
RB Henderson
WR Jamar Chase
TE Waller

 

[zed2283]

Guys I messed up again... Overpaid on the 2nd best RB again and I wasn't able to keep highest FAAB for next week. Also missed out on Allen...

Ekeler - 159 / 151 (me)
Kamara - 81 (me) / 10
Mattison 75 / 11 (me) (dropped DJ Moore)
Allen 60 / 59 (i bid 40) (dropped Pittman)
Waller 11 (me) / 4
Brady 4 (me) / 2
Hunter Renfrow 4 / 1 (dropped Cooks)
Tee Higgins 1 (dropped Mccaffrey)

FAAB 
101
62 (me)
6
3
1
0

So I am guaranteed 2nd best drop next week or if I'm lucky the 101 guy will drop and he has an amazing roster and Ekeler. Then I pretty much locked it up.

Seriously wish I bid 11 on Kamara though... Had a feeling this would happen and fought the urge to drop my bid.

QB Brady
RB Robinson
RB Conner
WR Lamb
WR Jefferson
FLEX Kupp
FLEX Kamara
TE Hockenson
QB Lamar
QB Burrow
RB Barkley
RB Henderson
WR Jamar Chase
TE Waller

No, I think that's alright.  IIRC Kamara has a great finishing schedule, so you may have the last laugh (see my post above).

 

[tigerz]

One other thing to start thinking about with next week being the last week for pickups.  We don't have the "best" teams but, as always is the case in fantasy football, the best teams don't always win.  If I get through this week, my plan will be to try to lay out my lineups for the remaining 4 weeks (14-17) based on matchups.  And that could mean dropping better players for lesser players with better matchups in certain weeks (or maybe even one week).  The benches are pretty small and I'm not sure if I can really pull it off, but I'm going to have a long look at it (again, if I make it through this week, which is a big if given the matchups).

It's kind of late to do this so you may not have much options at this point. I really wouldn't drop a stud to play the matchups if the weekly matchup guy is someone like Freeman or Hubbard. 

Mattison / Dernest / Ingram / AJ Dillon would have been good because they are proven but I think the drop off in RBs is real. 

When I was looking at RBs: J Taylor / Robinson / Mitchell / Ekeler / Swift had great playoff schedules so I tried to go after them. Harris is terrible, I don't think you can count on him even if he gets all the carries.

 

[zed2283]

The guy with the 2nd most money grabbed Brady today for $1.

I was able to add Mattison for free and dropped Cooper.  Start him over Robinson?

QB - Mahomes, Hurts
RB - Najee, Patterson, Robinson, Mattison, Dillon, D.Harris
WR - Kupp, Diggs, Deebo, Waddle
TE - Gronk, Pitts

 

[tigerz]

The guy with the 2nd most money grabbed Brady today for $1.

I was able to add Mattison for free and dropped Cooper.  Start him over Robinson?

QB - Mahomes, Hurts
RB - Najee, Patterson, Robinson, Mattison, Dillon, D.Harris
WR - Kupp, Diggs, Deebo, Waddle
TE - Gronk, Pitts

Hell yes.

 

[zed2283]

Hell yes.

Mahomes or Hurts?

 

[tigerz]

Mahomes or Hurts?

Man, I don't like either this week lol. Really to bad you couldn't get brady. If Mahomes had a good history against Denver I'd be inclined to go with him because Hurts has an ankle injury. However, last year he had:

200-1-0

318-1-0

He's a worse QB this year than last year and Denver D is tough... I don't know that I can trust him against D unless he proves it this game.

I think you got to role with Hurts despite the injury because he's playing the Jets. I don't like it, but hopefully it's not so bad that he doesn't run at all (which would severely cripple his floor)....

 

[zed2283]

Man, I don't like either this week lol. Really to bad you couldn't get brady. If Mahomes had a good history against Denver I'd be inclined to go with him because Hurts has an ankle injury. However, last year he had:

200-1-0

318-1-0

He's a worse QB this year than last year and Denver D is tough... I don't know that I can trust him against D unless he proves it this game.

I think you got to role with Hurts despite the injury because he's playing the Jets. I don't like it, but hopefully it's not so bad that he doesn't run at all (which would severely cripple his floor)....

I don't either lol.  I was really hoping to sneak in Brady.

Maybe I'll pick up Taysom Hill for the stretch run...

 

[TheWinz]

QB Brady
RB Robinson
RB Conner
WR Lamb
WR Jefferson
FLEX Kupp
FLEX Kamara
TE Hockenson
QB Lamar
QB Burrow
RB Barkley
RB Henderson
WR Jamar Chase
TE Waller

A great 19.2 start for Lamb.  Starting Barkley or Chase in that flex now, assuming Henderson is OUT?

 

[tigerz]

A great 19.2 start for Lamb.  Starting Barkley or Chase in that flex now, assuming Henderson is OUT?

I love lamp.

Was henderson confirmed out? I grabbed Jamaal Williams for $2 just in case vs MIN. It's either Chase/Barkley/WIlliams then if henderson is out.

The guy with $94 (spent 6 on pittman) is currently doing bad after he started Elliot / cooper. Lowest projected points now. If he drops I think I auto win. As I can pretty much steal his whole roster unopposed (Ekeler/Deebo/Najee/Elliot/Andrews/Chubb)

 

[TheWinz]

I love lamp.

Was henderson confirmed out? I grabbed Jamaal Williams for $2 just in case vs MIN. It's either Chase/Barkley/WIlliams then if henderson is out.

The guy with $94 (spent 6 on pittman) is currently doing bad after he started Elliot / cooper. Lowest projected points now. If he drops I think I auto win. As I can pretty much steal his whole roster unopposed (Ekeler/Deebo/Najee/Elliot/Andrews/Chubb)

I assume you dropped Burrow for Jamaal Williams?

Darrell Henderson (quad, questionable) was limited in Friday's practice. 
It is a step in the right direction after he opened the week with two DNPs. Already labeled questionable earlier on Friday, this limited practice suggests Henderson at least has a shot to play. The Rams play Sunday afternoon, so we will hopefully get some reporting on Henderson's status ahead of the early games. Sony Michel will be a high-upside play if Henderson is forced to sit.

James Robinson (heel) is questionable for Week 13 against the Rams. 
Robinson was incorrectly reported as not practicing on Thursday - he was officially limited on the injury report - and got in another limited session on Friday. Three limited practices throughout the week suggest Robinson will be ready to play, but that will hopefully be made official on Sunday morning. Robinson will be a touch-based RB2 if he is able to suit up.

You have made it this far by the strength of your WR's.  Just wondering why you are considering a RB over Chase?  He hasn't missed time, and has scored 190.1 over 11 games (17.28).  Is it because he is coming off his worst fantasy game of the season?

 

[tigerz]

I assume you dropped Burrow for Jamaal Williams?

Darrell Henderson (quad, questionable) was limited in Friday's practice. 
It is a step in the right direction after he opened the week with two DNPs. Already labeled questionable earlier on Friday, this limited practice suggests Henderson at least has a shot to play. The Rams play Sunday afternoon, so we will hopefully get some reporting on Henderson's status ahead of the early games. Sony Michel will be a high-upside play if Henderson is forced to sit.

James Robinson (heel) is questionable for Week 13 against the Rams. 
Robinson was incorrectly reported as not practicing on Thursday - he was officially limited on the injury report - and got in another limited session on Friday. Three limited practices throughout the week suggest Robinson will be ready to play, but that will hopefully be made official on Sunday morning. Robinson will be a touch-based RB2 if he is able to suit up.

You have made it this far by the strength of your WR's.  Just wondering why you are considering a RB over Chase?  He hasn't missed time, and has scored 190.1 over 11 games (17.28).  Is it because he is coming off his worst fantasy game of the season?

Dropped burrow and he was instantly snapped up yes.

Yeah, it's pretty much because when I picked up Chase, I thought he was #1 target in a great passing offense who has upside due to his deep ball and red zone presence. Bengals have since shifted to a run team dominated by Mixon. Also, Higgins is eating into his share of targets. I'm concerned if this is regression and he's more of a boom bust player. I do feel like he's due for a bounce back game. I do think he did need to regress some from his first few games but he isn't this bad that I should be seeing a lot of sub 50 no TD games. Plan against the chargers should be to run the ball with Mixon and they do well against WRs so I'm concerned its going to be low targets and opportunity for Chase here. 

Also, WRs even in PPR just aren't as consistent as RBs I think. Have had a few stinkers from Brown / Lockett in the past. Think even Jefferson had one down game. But then again, maybe its same for RBs.

I think Henderson, if healthy and playing, gets enough volume in good game scripts and I think the Rams have a good game script this time. I just thought he was safer this time.

With both of them injured though, I may have to adjust. But Jamaal may have a safe floor. Vikings matchup isn't bad and he *should* get carries... Unless they are trying to be cute which has happened several times when backups around the league get all the carries.

 

[TheWinz]

Also, WRs even in PPR just aren't as consistent as RBs I think.

Let's put this to the test, using your top 2 studly dudes...

Cooper Kupp (WR1) - 275.2 in 11 games = 25.02 AVG
11.4, 16.2, 16.6, 20.5, 23.2, 23.8, 24.5, 30.6, 34.0, 37.3, 37.6
versus
Jonathan Taylor (RB1) - 286.1 in 12 games = 23.84 AVG
6.3, 8.2, 17.6, 19.7, 20.0, 20.4, 21.2, 24.6, 28.8, 31.9, 34.0, 53.4

Justin Jefferson (WR5) - 208.45 in 11 games = 18.95 AVG
4.1, 12.65, 13.5, 16.0, 17.0, 18.5, 19.4, 20.4, 22.9, 26.8, 37.2
versus
Leonard Fournette (RB5) - 196.5 in 11 games = 17.86 AVG
6.4, 7.3, 10.9, 11.6, 13.4, 16.9, 17.0, 17.2, 21.0, 30.7, 44.1

Hmmm???

 

[tigerz]

Let's put this to the test, using your top 2 studly dudes...

Cooper Kupp (WR1) - 275.2 in 11 games = 25.02 AVG
11.4, 16.2, 16.6, 20.5, 23.2, 23.8, 24.5, 30.6, 34.0, 37.3, 37.6
versus
Jonathan Taylor (RB1) - 286.1 in 12 games = 23.84 AVG
6.3, 8.2, 17.6, 19.7, 20.0, 20.4, 21.2, 24.6, 28.8, 31.9, 34.0, 53.4

Justin Jefferson (WR5) - 208.45 in 11 games = 18.95 AVG
4.1, 12.65, 13.5, 16.0, 17.0, 18.5, 19.4, 20.4, 22.9, 26.8, 37.2
versus
Leonard Fournette (RB5) - 196.5 in 11 games = 17.86 AVG
6.4, 7.3, 10.9, 11.6, 13.4, 16.9, 17.0, 17.2, 21.0, 30.7, 44.1

Hmmm???

Don't get me wrong, Jefferson/Kupp are always must starts. But outside a few names, I I don't think it's fair to say Chase has the same consistency as them.

Also, See Jefferson's lowest game is 4 while Fournette and Taylor have higher floor game. Swings are larger. If WRs always got 10 targets 7 receptions a game I'd think they would have a safe floor but Chase may not get that in a tough matchup and bad game script.

 

[TheWinz]

Don't get me wrong, Jefferson/Kupp are always must starts. But outside a few names, I I don't think it's fair to say Chase has the same consistency as them.

Also, See Jefferson's lowest game is 4 while Fournette and Taylor have higher floor game. Swings are larger. If WRs always got 10 targets 7 receptions a game I'd think they would have a safe floor but Chase may not get that.

You are missing my point.  You have to compare similiar RB's and WR's.  That's why I compared Kupp to Taylor (WR1 vs RB1) and Jefferson to Fournette (WR5 vs RB5).  If you want to see how Chase and Lamb compare, you HAVE to compare them to equivalent RB's.  Wanna see the numbers?

 

[tigerz]

You are missing my point.  You have to compare similiar RB's and WR's.  That's why I compared Kupp to Taylor (WR1 vs RB1) and Jefferson to Fournette (WR5 vs RB5).  If you want to see how Chase and Lamb compare, you HAVE to compare them to equivalent RB's.  Wanna see the numbers?

Sorry I’m confused. Are we talking about just this week or theoretical? I just thought chase wasn’t the safe play this week. But if Henderson and Robinson are injured maybe chase is safer, not sure. It’s a flex so I just go with whoever is safer between the two, not sure the long term matters more than this week only.

I think some wrs are consistent and some rbs are consistent. Whether a rb or wr is more consistent than the other depends on who they are and who they are playing. More so than the position they play. I trust kupp and jefferson over many of the rbs. I just don’t think chase is matchup proof. Do you really think he’s safe this week? I’m just worried,

 

[TheWinz]

Sorry I’m confused. Are we talking about just this week or theoretical? I just thought chase wasn’t the safe play this week. But if Henderson and Robinson are injured maybe chase is safer, not sure. It’s a flex so I just go with whoever is safer between the two, not sure the long term matters more than this week only.

You had said you didn't think WR's were as consistent as RB's in PPR.  I compared equivalent players, and really didn't come to that same conclusion.  Sure, RB1 overall is more consistent than WR12, but the reverse is also true - WR1 is more consistent than RB12.  That's why you have to compare equivalent players.  You can't compare Lamb or Chase to Taylor or Fournette.  Sorry if I wasn't clear.

 

[TheWinz]

QB Brady
RB Robinson
RB Conner
WR Lamb
WR Jefferson
FLEX Kupp
FLEX Kamara
TE Hockenson
QB Lamar
QB Burrow
RB Barkley
RB Henderson
WR Jamar Chase
TE Waller

Does Lamb already count as a WR for you, or can you move him to flex?

 

[tigerz]

Does Lamb already count as a WR for you, or can you move him to flex?

Lamb was used as a receiver. Can’t move.

 

[tigerz]

You had said you didn't think WR's were as consistent as RB's in PPR.  I compared equivalent players, and really didn't come to that same conclusion.  Sure, RB1 overall is more consistent than WR12, but the reverse is also true - WR1 is more consistent than RB12.  That's why you have to compare equivalent players.  You can't compare Lamb or Chase to Taylor or Fournette.  Sorry if I wasn't clear.

Fair point, I didn’t really do math so you may be right from a fp point average. I feel like that’s kind of arbitrary though. In a guillotine world it is probably be more apt to have a list or most coveted consistent flex players regardless of position and rank them that way so I have a priority when bidding and roster building. Like at what point do rbs become must flex over chase? I think lamb is every week for me now unless the rb is like Harris ekeler

 

[TheWinz]

Fair point, I didn’t really do math so you may be right from a fp point average. I feel like that’s kind of arbitrary though. In a guillotine world it is probably be more apt to have a list or most coveted consistent flex players regardless of position and rank them that way so I have a priority when bidding and roster building.

Consistency comes a far second to actual scoring.  For example, would you rather have a guy who is 100% guaranteed to score the same exact score every week, or a guy who has large swings?  Before you answer, the consistent guy gets 1 rush for 1 yard every game.

 

[TheWinz]

Let's just boil this down.

RB1 - Conner - he's a must start, so we don't need to discuss, right?
RB2 - ???????
WR1 - Kupp - Your top WR is a must start, period.
WR2 - Lamb - already played and scored very well.
Flex1 - Jefferson is a must start also, right?
Flex2 - ????????

 

[tigerz]

Consistency comes a far second to actual scoring.  For example, would you rather have a guy who is 100% guaranteed to score the same exact score every week, or a guy who has large swings?  Before you answer, the consistent guy gets 1 rush for 1 yard every game.

That’s obvious. But in guillotine leagues guys who get you a zero kill you so you almost don’t want anyone whose floor is a zero or one regardless of upside. Especially if there is a similar upside with higher floor. 

like you can argue against ever starting metcalf and evans if you got Goodwin or waddle, even if evans and metcalf scored more fp.

 

[tigerz]

Let's just boil this down.

RB1 - Conner - he's a must start, so we don't need to discuss, right?
RB2 - ???????
WR1 - Kupp - Your top WR is a must start, period.
WR2 - Lamb - already played and scored very well.
Flex1 - Jefferson is a must start also, right?
Flex2 - ????????

yeah. So it boils down to chase, Robinson, Henderson, Williams. Floor comes down to how healthy are Robinson and Henderson. If I can predict the game scripts and all are healthy then I think Robinson and Henderson Should be flex and rb2 respectively.

With injury, it’s harder… chase has shown his floor game. Maybe that floor is higher because of the risk of limited snaps or injury. Thinking Williams maybe doesn’t get volume like we expect and maybe the other rbs step in more. Or Williams just isn’t that good. There’s risk.

 

[TheWinz]

That’s obvious. But in guillotine leagues guys who get you a zero kill you so you almost don’t want anyone whose floor is a zero or one regardless of upside. Especially if there is a similar upside with higher floor. 

like you can argue against ever starting metcalf and evans if you got Goodwin or waddle, even if evans and metcalf scored more fp.

Agreed, but if you didn't notice, you listed 4 WR's that are fairly close in overall FP averages.  If you had to choose between Cole Beasley or Mike Evans, who you starting?

 

[tigerz]

Agreed, but if you didn't notice, you listed 4 WR's that are fairly close in overall FP averages.  If you had to choose between Cole Beasley or Mike Evans, who you starting?

Evans and just pray I can survive the busts… it’s actually interesting because people picked up Pittman renfrow waddle cause of their consistency and start them all year. Despite the lower ceilings. I think that’s what helps people survive early in the year. If you got a lot of boom bust guys then having a high floor guy helps. Especially when you got 10 plus players in pool. Think Tim Patrick was good for much of the season for this reason. if I can have a team with onlys guy who scores 10 points every game vs a team with only guys who scores between 30 and zero then my points are higher on average with the variance team. But if my goal is just not to be last then if 10 points guarantees I’m above that threshold than you are better off chosing consistency over points because death is taken off the table.

Plus these guys were cheap to buy versus evans. Evans cost like 250 but the other guys were like 5 to 20. And you saw evans owners get chopped every bust game. Now it’s opportunity cost. If evans drops do you spend 50 on him now or pass and hope a more consistent option drops.

 

[TheWinz]

Evans and just pray I can survive the busts… it’s actually interesting because people picked up Pittman renfrow waddle cause of their consistency and start them all year. Despite the lower ceilings. I think that’s what helps people survive early in the year. If you got a lot of boom bust guys then having a high floor guy helps. Especially when you got 10 plus players in pool. Think Tim Patrick was good for much of the season for this reason. Plus these guys were cheap to buy versus evans. Evans cost like 250 but the other guys were like 5 to 20. And you saw evans owners get chopped every bust game. Now it’s opportunity cost. If evans drops do you spend 50 on him now or pass and hope a more consistent option drops.

Great conversation.  But just remember, when you are talking about guys like the ones you mentioned, they are close to Evans already.  That's why I said Beasley.  He is considered consistent, but his PPG average is 5 points lower than Evans.  Anyway, let's get back to your decision.

2 spots left - RB2 and Flex2
Choices are RB Robinson, RB Henderson, RB Williams, or WR Chase

You MUST pick a RB to fill the RB2 slot, so let's start there.

Henderson - plays at 4pm vs JAC, most recent info I could find:
We’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out officially whether Darrell Henderson Jr. and Odell Beckham Jr. will suit up against the Jaguars at SoFi Stadium. They’re both listed as questionable after being limited on Friday, though Beckham seems much more likely to play than Henderson.  Sean McVay said he would be surprised if Beckham doesn’t play, and added that Henderson could be a game-time decision due to his thigh injury.

Robinson - plays at 4pm @ LAR, most recent info I could find:
James Robinson (heel) is questionable for Week 13 against the Rams. 
Robinson was incorrectly reported as not practicing on Thursday - he was officially limited on the injury report - and got in another limited session on Friday. Three limited practices throughout the week suggest Robinson will be ready to play, but that will hopefully be made official on Sunday morning. Robinson will be a touch-based RB2 if he is able to suit up.

Williams - plays 1pm vs MIN
Swift is already ruled OUT, and Jamaal should get the lion's share of RB touches for DET.  MIN is the 9th easiest for RB's according to Yahoo's points allowed function, but they have faced stiff competition almost every week (1 vs Mixon, 2 vs Edmonds/Conner, 3 vs Carson, 4 vs Chubb/Hunt, 5 vs Swift, 6 vs Chuba, 8 vs Zeke/Pollard, 9 vs BAL, 10 vs Ekeler, 11 vs Dillon, 12 vs Mitchell

I hate this decision.  You either have to start the healthy inferior RB or wait and start a dinged up better one.  Also, it sounds like Robinson is more likely to play than Henderson.  Lastly, if you stall and start neither Williams or Chase (or Barkley), you MUST start Henderson & Robinson, unless you visit the waiver wire before the 4pm kickoff.

 

[tigerz]

Great conversation.  But just remember, when you are talking about guys like the ones you mentioned, they are close to Evans already.  That's why I said Beasley.  He is considered consistent, but his PPG average is 5 points lower than Evans.  Anyway, let's get back to your decision.

2 spots left - RB2 and Flex2
Choices are RB Robinson, RB Henderson, RB Williams, or WR Chase

You MUST pick a RB to fill the RB2 slot, so let's start there.

Henderson - plays at 4pm vs JAC, most recent info I could find:
We’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out officially whether Darrell Henderson Jr. and Odell Beckham Jr. will suit up against the Jaguars at SoFi Stadium. They’re both listed as questionable after being limited on Friday, though Beckham seems much more likely to play than Henderson.  Sean McVay said he would be surprised if Beckham doesn’t play, and added that Henderson could be a game-time decision due to his thigh injury.

Robinson - plays at 4pm @ LAR, most recent info I could find:
James Robinson (heel) is questionable for Week 13 against the Rams. 
Robinson was incorrectly reported as not practicing on Thursday - he was officially limited on the injury report - and got in another limited session on Friday. Three limited practices throughout the week suggest Robinson will be ready to play, but that will hopefully be made official on Sunday morning. Robinson will be a touch-based RB2 if he is able to suit up.

Williams - plays 1pm vs MIN
Swift is already ruled OUT, and Jamaal should get the lion's share of RB touches for DET.  MIN is the 9th easiest for RB's according to Yahoo's points allowed function, but they have faced stiff competition almost every week (1 vs Mixon, 2 vs Edmonds/Conner, 3 vs Carson, 4 vs Chubb/Hunt, 5 vs Swift, 6 vs Chuba, 8 vs Zeke/Pollard, 9 vs BAL, 10 vs Ekeler, 11 vs Dillon, 12 vs Mitchell

I hate this decision.  You either have to start the healthy inferior RB or wait and start a dinged up better one.  Also, it sounds like Robinson is more likely to play than Henderson.  Lastly, if you stall and start neither Williams or Chase (or Barkley), you MUST start Henderson & Robinson, unless you visit the waiver wire before the 4pm kickoff.

thanks. I don’t want to rely on both Robinson and Henderson starting… rather just play whoever starts out of the two to be safe since no options if both no go.

then out of chase or Williams…. Leaning towards chase. Easily get 3 catches for 30 to 50 or lower since that’s around what he’s averaging last 4 games. He does get catches in the end zone a lot which saves his value. 6 points is his floor but probably has much td upside and yardage upside as Williams.

I believe Vikings also got some of their interior line back and not sure how much volume Williams will get with swift out. Probably close between Williams and chase but better starting your stud than being cute…

 My worries for Henderson vs Robinson is the game script. I think Robinson is closer to go but rams may dominate them so maybe they run less.

henderson being injured worries me if he gets limited snaps or is pulled early… though I think if he plays hopefully he’s good to play a full game. Would rather roll with Henderson if both were healthy but leaning towards Robinson as safer.

 

[TheWinz]

thanks. I don’t want to rely on both Robinson and Henderson starting… rather just play whoever starts out of the two to be safe since no options if both no go.

then out of chase or Williams…. Leaning towards chase. Easily get 3 catches for 30 to 50 or lower since that’s around what he’s averaging last 4 games. He does get catches in the end zone a lot which saves his value. 6 points is his floor but probably has much td upside and yardage upside as Williams.

I believe Vikings also got some of their interior line back and not sure how much volume Williams will get with swift out. Probably close between Williams and chase but better starting your stud than being cute…

 My worries for Henderson vs Robinson is the game script. I think Robinson is closer to go but rams may dominate them so maybe they run less.

henderson being injured worries me if he gets limited snaps or is pulled early… though I think if he plays hopefully he’s good to play a full game. Would rather roll with Henderson if both were healthy but leaning towards Robinson as safer.

I'm starting to think Barkley needs to really enter this conversation...