What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Half court shot vs. 2 years in jail? (1 Viewer)

L

LOCO

Footballguy
10 million dollars if you hit a half court shot in 10 tries. 2 years in jail you don't hit it. risk it?

can't make a poll on phone.

Edit

24 months in a Martha Stewart type joint.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not a chance I would try that. Not even with practice. Average NBA player would be hard pressed to make that

 
How long do I have to practice? what kind of prison we talking about? if I had ample time to prepare and it wasn't a maximum security prison, I would lean toward doing it. When would you get an opportunity like that again?

 
oh definately in......back in the day i used to be able to make this 1-10 times....i am sure i could get there again...

 
The Big Guy said:
Not a chance I would try that. Not even with practice. Average NBA player would be hard pressed to make that
Click to expand...
Don't agree with that statement. From what I've seen, the average shooting guard in D-I could make 1 out of 10 half court shots, with consistency, especially with no defense.

 
I would do that in a heart beat. I'm positive that I could have done it 20 years ago. I don't see what could go wrong doing it now.

 
They pull me out of my chair right now to do it or I have a set date in a few weeks? If it's the later.......and the 10mil is tax free......I'd absolutely try it. Either way...I'd be getting laid a lot more than I currently am right now.

 
No way. And we use to practice these in HS.

I did it a 3/4 court beater to end the half once.

Look at me

 
Thunderlips said:
They pull me out of my chair right now to do it or I have a set date in a few weeks? If it's the later.......and the 10mil is tax free......I'd absolutely try it. Either way...I'd be getting laid a lot more than I currently am right now.
Click to expand...
Sure, the tax is the deal breaker.

 
I don't know. An NBA shot is 47 feet. That's a long way. The best actuary for this in the country says it's a 50-1 shot for the unrehearsed average Joe. For 10 shots that's a 20% chance of sinking one (probably a little higher because you'd theoretically get better with each successive shot). With a little practice maybe you could double the odds to 40%. Not nearly enough for that gamble.

 
General Tso said:
I don't know. An NBA shot is 47 feet. That's a long way. The best actuary for this in the country says it's a 50-1 shot for the unrehearsed average Joe. For 10 shots that's a 20% chance of sinking one (probably a little higher because you'd theoretically get better with each successive shot). With a little practice maybe you could double the odds to 40%. Not nearly enough for that gamble.
Click to expand...
...No, I think it's 10 attemptS at 50-1.

 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
General Tso said:
I don't know. An NBA shot is 47 feet. That's a long way. The best actuary for this in the country says it's a 50-1 shot for the unrehearsed average Joe. For 10 shots that's a 20% chance of sinking one (probably a little higher because you'd theoretically get better with each successive shot). With a little practice maybe you could double the odds to 40%. Not nearly enough for that gamble.
Click to expand...
...No, I think it's 10 attemptS at 50-1.
Click to expand...
50-1 appears to be for a single shot by an adult who did not play highschool basketball within the previous five years. It's probably combined male and female.

If you're a male who is a decent shooter with good range, I'm thinking you should hit a half-court shot more than 10% of the time. So if you got ten tries, you should make at least one of them at least 65% of the time.

(If you were 50-1 on each try, you'd have about an 18% of hitting at least one.)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
dickey moe said:
A layup for $10 million or two years in jail if you miss - do you try it (be honest)?
Click to expand...
absolutely the layup, no question.

I would go for the half courter 10 tries.

As someone else said though, the family would need something if I end up in prison for 2 years. At least enough to cover my normal income plus some extra for more child care that would be needed.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
General Tso said:
I don't know. An NBA shot is 47 feet. That's a long way. The best actuary for this in the country says it's a 50-1 shot for the unrehearsed average Joe. For 10 shots that's a 20% chance of sinking one (probably a little higher because you'd theoretically get better with each successive shot). With a little practice maybe you could double the odds to 40%. Not nearly enough for that gamble.
Click to expand...
...No, I think it's 10 attemptS at 50-1.
Click to expand...
50-1 appears to be for a single shot by an adult who did not play highschool basketball within the previous five years. It's probably combined male and female.

If you're a male who is a decent shooter with good range, I'm thinking you should hit a half-court shot more than 10% of the time. So if you got ten tries, you should make at least one of them at least 65% of the time.

(If you were 50-1 on each try, you'd have about an 18% of hitting at least one.)
Click to expand...
But each chance is an independent chance. Your second, third, etc. chance does not increase based on a previous try. If your first chance is 50-1, aren't all of them? Am I thinking about that wrong?

 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
But each chance is an independent chance. Your second, third, etc. chance does not increase based on a previous try. If your first chance is 50-1, aren't all of them? Am I thinking about that wrong?
Click to expand...
I dont agree with this at all. This isnt rolling dice or flipping a coin.

If you let 1000 people do this I think you will see strong enough evidence that the 1st shot is missed more frequently than the rest, assuming you get to take all 10 in a row over the course of several minutes.

Not sure about you or others, but a couple cracks at it should improve the comfort level and feel of the shot.

Now, if you get to warm up plenty beforehand, could be a bit different.

 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
General Tso said:
I don't know. An NBA shot is 47 feet. That's a long way. The best actuary for this in the country says it's a 50-1 shot for the unrehearsed average Joe. For 10 shots that's a 20% chance of sinking one (probably a little higher because you'd theoretically get better with each successive shot). With a little practice maybe you could double the odds to 40%. Not nearly enough for that gamble.
Click to expand...
...No, I think it's 10 attemptS at 50-1.
Click to expand...
50-1 appears to be for a single shot by an adult who did not play highschool basketball within the previous five years. It's probably combined male and female.

If you're a male who is a decent shooter with good range, I'm thinking you should hit a half-court shot more than 10% of the time. So if you got ten tries, you should make at least one of them at least 65% of the time.

(If you were 50-1 on each try, you'd have about an 18% of hitting at least one.)
Click to expand...
But each chance is an independent chance. Your second, third, etc. chance does not increase based on a previous try. If your first chance is 50-1, aren't all of them? Am I thinking about that wrong?
Click to expand...
Yes, you're thinking wrong. If you flip a coin 10 times, what are the odds that you hit heads At least once? 50% or damn near 100%?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Maybe an NBA size guy used to hucking it could make 1/10, but even most athletic people would not IMO...

5% chance 1/20 (60% chance of missing all ten)

4% chance 1/25 (66% chance of missing all ten)

3% chance 1/33 (74% chance of missing all ten)

No chance.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Joe Bryant
A Glimpse of Beauty In an Ugly Place
Replies
0
Views
229
Joe Bryant
Joe Bryant
Ministry of Pain
Best friend is going in for a Double Bypass at the age of 40
Replies
32
Views
2K
Mrs. Rannous
Mrs. Rannous
BobbyLayne
  • Poll Poll
FBGs Bible Study
Replies
41
Views
2K
Gatorade
Gatorade

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top