JGalligan
Footballguy
Note: This isn't technically an all-NFL discussion per SE, but a lot of it does pertain to the NFL, especially most of the handicapping stuff. I figured the Shark Pool audience in here would be more receptive to it than the FFA folk. Nothing against the FFA forum -- they're all truly splendid and magnificent people in their own right. And yes, I definitely just added that last part in case this gets moved over there. If this was the wrong place though, I do offer my apologies and this sad banana face also. --> 
Other than that, please do enjoy! And know ahead of time that this bad boy is around 5,000 words. Kinda got carried away a little bit but it is chalk full of good, informative stuff. I promise!
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I've always said that gambling helps you to appreciate the little things in life. Mind you, it helps you appreciate the little things in life that you're actually gambling on and not, say, a beautiful oak tree changing color in the autumn or something deep like that. Regardless, it still helps you appreciate some of the little things in the football world none-the-less. Case in point: Central Michigan vs. Troy State.
Is anyone in their right minds looking forward to this bowl game save for the locals of each campus and perhaps some diehard fans of everything college football? And even then, even the diehards may find it a chore to "get it up" for this game. Unless of course…
If you've said to yourself during the last few paragraphs, "Well gamblers, of course!" then you my friend, are as clever as the cleverest boy. And with great reading and comprehension skills to boot. Well done!
Back on the serious front, I was thinking about the whole gambling allows you to appreciate the little things in life the other day as I sat pouring over spreadsheets and notebooks containing all sorts of NFL and college football statistics that I needed for handicapping purposes.
We'll get to that in a bit, but until then, I'm going to discuss my brief history with handicapping football. Only in an effort to reassure everyone that while I'm no tout guru or anything, I've had some marginal success handicapping with my own lines, comparing them to the actual lines and then jumping on anything I saw with value. And yes, I'm going to list all 15 games from the upcoming college football bowl season at the end of this -- including which side I think is the winning one and also what I handicapped each game at spread-wise.
If that sounds boring to you then I suggest you leave now. If it sounded mildly intriguing, then I encourage you to stay a bit longer and at least take a look at which sides my handicapping system has picked for the games in which I found some value. Or at least print this bad-boy out and use for enjoyable bathroom reading. On the other hand, if what I just said sounded exciting in any way to you then you my friend, are in good company!
Hopefully the last category of people I just talked about will appreciate the 5,000ish words I busted out for this holiday special. I know I haven't written much in a while so I figured I needed to come back with a boom. I didn't expect it to be a 5,000 word boom but whatever. I'm calling this my 2009 Magna Opus, mainly because it sounds cool. Hopefully I remembered the term right and I'm not calling this something that doesn't make sense it Latin or whatever. No matter. Moving forward!
You can't really explain gambling and to a lesser extent, handicapping spreads to someone who has never experienced it. It's kind of like sex and Rice Krispy Treats Cereal in this way. Both are one of the few natural rushes or highs that you can get based on personal experiences and being with completely sober friends, one of whom hit a five team parlay (which I had actually tried to convince him out of doing – mainly because I have a strict rule of never betting more than two teams on any given parlay, but that's another tale for another day) and if you didn't know any better you probably would have thought he was all jacked up on some illegal substance. He just sat there for the first ten minutes after winning with a ####-eating grin on his face. Frigging kid was acting like he just won a half a million dollars. I think he walked away with less than $400 when it was all said and done. Still though, it's that initial rush when you know you've won. Indescribable. As is the feeling you get when you lose by thiiiiiiiiiiis much. That feeling sucks bad and because of this, we will steer clear of discussing it. I'd like this to be a positive, happy Magna Opus, not a depressing one.
It all makes sense when you break it all down. Our lives are ruled by money in nearly all conceivable areas. Although it's been suggested that there's a lot more to life than just having a lot of money, it can still be easily agreed upon that having a lot of money certainly doesn't hurt things either (usually). Especially if you've just won it in bulk thanks to one phone call, a few notes on a piece of paper and sitting in front of a television whining like a little girl for three and a half hours.
Now, if you haven't been able to tell, I've been quite taken with the whole gambling thing for some time. Probably since the first day I won $10 betting on the color of the next car to come down my street with my friend back in the dizz-ay when I was like... 11 years old. Unsurprisingly, we are both still very close friends to this day and bet on every single thing possible. He once tried to drunkenly explain to me his theory about how having no problem putting money on the line for something was the true measure of a man in that you stood by your beliefs and convictions. I was also ####faced so I don't remember too much of it, but it was actually a nice observation that, coming from him, was entirely unexpected.
Anyway, enough side tracking stories. Let's get back on track as to the main reason I decided to amass a small army of words with my fingertips and create this behemoth.
Basically, in the interests of spreading a little holiday cheer to any and all of you who may perhaps even be brooding right now over this year's Bowl schedule spreads -- all while pounding down glass after glass of Alka-Seltzer and whiskey. I also wanted to write it for anyone else who just wants an entirely-too-in-depth-and-lengthy opinion of the upcoming slate of games, their betting lines and part of the stuff that goes in during the handicapping your own lines process.
So I've decided to open the floodgates. These floodgates contain the fruits of my valiant, knightly statistical and spreadsheet research over the past few days (and weeks, and months) of this seasons' labor.
Again, I'm not trying to claim that this is the end-all be-all and you should drop down the mortgage money for your house on the sides I've taken. Ideally, anyone who's on the fence about a particular set of games or just wants to learn more about one of the ways to handicap games and find value in particular bets. If you don't like college football, gambling, or anything along the lines of handicapping sports, then once again, it might be best if you spent your time more wisely elsewhere. Unless of course I've peaked your interests.
I have a feeling that approximately 12-15% or so of the people who start reading this will actually get this far into the write-up. So if you're still reading this, congratulations! It only gets better from here on out! Seriously, I promise!
For those of you who don't know, I fancy myself somewhat of an amateur football handicapper. Nothing special -- I'm certainly no guru or anything by any means, but I take it all fairly seriously and have spent a small eternity tweaking formulas, troubleshooting spreadsheets and generally checking and rechecking every single thing that I did in fear that one small slip-up could be the undoing of everything.
As for "walking the walk" with my handicapping -- in short, over the last two seasons, my little system I've created has hit 55.2% success in the NFL and 60.7% in the college ranks. I tried to open up a tout service of my own which went quite well for a short while -- especially since I went out of my way to be as different from the other tout services as manly possible.
I stated multiple times throughout my website that I offered no locks of the week or sure-things. Why? Well, because they don't exist. I don't care if you've somehow scored the top team in the league getting 20 points at home. A few broken bones and a motivated locker room speech later and bam! That's all it takes to once again prove to us that on Any Given Sunday, many gamblers are oft to end up incredibly disappointed. And broke.
To make a long story short, Paypal discovered my little business venture and proceeded to freeze my funds. Several enraging phone calls and an attempt at comparing what I was doing to showing someone how to shoot a gun – it's not my fault if they went and shot it (since I was giving away betting touts, not actually going through the betting process with them), I realized that I wasn't going to get anywhere with them. Getting paid for gambling related stuff on your Paypal account is apparently a big no-no. I decided it was all probably for the better. That didn't stop me from continuing to handicap, though. Oh no! That #### is incredibly addictive once you start getting going with it, almost to the point where if you slipped up and didn't do your lines properly for the week, you almost felt a bit empty and naked as you watched on Sunday. Almost as if you could be missing out on some huge payday but would never really know. It's a love/hate type hobby for sure, but it's very rewarding in the long run if you put the work in and create some shortcuts here and there.
If anyone is legitimately interested in learning the basics of handicapping (pro and college football only – I haven't stepped into the other sports… yet) then just hit me up via PM or e-mail or something and I'll gladly be of as much assistance as possible and get you pointed in the right direction.
Hopefully that's enough of a brief bio to show I'm somewhat knowledgeable about the handicapping game. Again, I still have a lot to learn and a lot of bad habits to fix but I think I have the gist of it down fairly comfortable enough. I've been itching to try and somehow come up with a point scale for basketball or baseball to do the same with them, but that's a topic for another day as well.
Now even though I think it goes without saying, I'll say it again as I've learned that some people have impossibly thick skulls sometimes. Any bets placed in any sport are at your own risk. Nothing is for certain or a "mortal locks" in the world of sports betting. If someone's telling you as such then they're trying to butter you up and they're a snake in mobsters clothing. Seriously, I've always wondered how they could call this #### a mortal lock or, my favorite, "mortal lock of the century". Unless I've somehow avoided seeing tout services talk about their psychic abilities to see into the future, I think everyone would do well to throw all this "mortal lock" and "iron lock of the week" #### back in their faces.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose and never assume that you're going to win a bet unless the game is well underway. Suffice to say, I don't want to be responsible for anyone reading this and thinking that I have some secret magic formula that helps to pick winning bets. In a nutshell, I make my handicapped line with a fairly basic but still complex formula that takes into account things like strength of schedule, points scored minus points against, etc. Everything is weighted against the average into letter grades (A-F) and compared to a chart that tells you how many points to give a team of whatever letter grade or number grade they are.
For example, a team that is a C grade overall gets 0 points, while a D+ team is considered -3.5 points worse than the league average C teams. You also must take into account home field advantage (which wasn't much of a problem or issue for the Bowl games) and the general consensus is awarding the home team in additional 1.5 - 3 points per the philosophy the particular handicapper subscribes under.
So say a C team was playing a D+ team and the C team was at home. On neutral ground, the C grade team would be 3.5 points better than the D+ team. But at home, they're likely to be 5+ points better. So after calculating what my unbiased spread is I take a look at the Vegas spreads. If there is a certain difference between the two, I see it as a value bet. As in, my spread number is what the line IS whereas the Vegas spread is only to get people to bet on both sides so they always come out on top.
Say my spread says Team A should be giving -6 to Team B but the Vegas line only has them giving -3.5. Based on all of my statistics and research, Team A should by all intents and purposes be favored by -6 -- so betting on them at -3.5 represents value. My handicapping says that they SHOULD be giving 6 points, but they only have to cover -3.5 per the Vegas spread. Hopefully some of that made sense if not all. Because regardless, we're moving onward.
Out of the 34 Bowl games that we will be so graciously enjoying these coming weeks, I've marked 15 of them as having spreads/lines that offer some significant amount of value that's worth betting on.
I'm not going to bother to explain how the games are listed with my handicapped line and the actual spread line -- mainly since I've placed the actual spread line beside a cleverly marked label of "Actual line:" and MY handicapped lines beside an equally as cleverly marked label of "My lines." Thank you, I thought that was clever as well.
Anyway, let's get this shizzle started!
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I've provided this brief break in space to suggest that anyone who's been holding in their piss for the past fifteen minutes go and relieve themselves so you can stop squirming around. Yes, that means YOU!
Feel free to stretch out, pop open some whiskey or bust out some brew-ha-ha's as well. Not that you couldn't have done as such already without my permission, but I think these things are important to remind my readers about. You just don't get this weird-### #### from anyone else for better or worse!
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Oregon State vs. Brigham Young
My line: BYU (+4.5)
Actual Line: BYU (+2)
The Side: Oregon State (-2)
This has all the makings of a shellacking to me. And I say that only because my gut feeling has been backed up by my precious little spreadsheets and numbers and what-not. Usually when I just get gut feelings, they're always almost certainly wrong -- terrifically wrong even. But don't worry, I never go by my gut feelings with any touts. Ever. And neither should you.
If I ever had, I suppose I would have been burned, feathered and tossed into an ocean somewhere a long, long time ago after giving my "gut" pick to some guy named Sal who proceeded to lose ten dimes on it. Definitely doesn't sound like a good time whatsoever.
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Utah vs. California
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: California (-3)
The side: Utah (+3)
I was pretty surprised that there were so many +/- 3 spreads for this year's Bowl Games. Usually a + or - 3 spread reveals that the bookies really think that the teams are equal -- should they have ever played on a neutral field. +2, +2.5 or +3 is usually given as a bonus for home field advantage (like we talked about earlier). Since there's no real home field in the Bowl games, I suppose that means the bookies actually think that California is a field goal better than Utah. And while I could be wrong, I'll take Utah and those juicy, delectable little points.
Aaaaaaaaaand it's now official! I need to go make something to eat.
Oh, if anyone knows of any of these games I'm listing being played somewhere close to any of where the two teams live/play then please lemme know and we might tweak the spreads a bit and maybe even the side that we're ultimately on. Riveting stuff!
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Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: North Carolina (+3)
The play: North Carolina (+3)
Taking North Carolina +3 all day, all day! Why? Well, if you haven't figured it out yet, they aren't supposed to be getting ANY points at all per my handicap. Getting three whole points against an oft-shaky Pittsburgh squad is like being giddy on Christmas morning as a child all over again. Except this time, instead of getting video games, you're getting money instead. Hopefully perhaps a few strippers and/or prostitutes to kick it up a notch as well.
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Miami vs. Wisconsin
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: Wisconsin (+3)
The side: Wisconsin (+3)
Does anyone else ever find themselves overestimating Miami and having trouble ever going against them because of the powerhouse-juggernaut they used to be not so long ago? I'm not going to lie. I do.
Thankfully, once again, I don't bet based on my own gut feelings. And neither should anyone really. Too many people's bets are clouded with bias and stubborn opinions or judgments. Indeed, this is perhaps why the Vegas bookies looooooooove the Mr. Joe Public so much. The same one who always flocks into Vegas each year by the tens of thousands and NEVER fails to place his bets with a vehement hometown bias that has been ever-so-lovingly instilled in him by the equally-as-vehement and biased sports talk town radio jockeys.
No matter how loyal you are to specific players or teams, you should always just remind yourself that money knows no bias. You will either see through said haze for what it truly is, go along with the warm, comforting feeling of actual facts and statistics or you'll just probably you lie to yourself while happily going the opposite way. This topic is owed a whole other article in and of itself. I need to write that down before I forget. Actually, I just did! ZING!
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Bowling Green vs. Idaho
My line: Idaho (+4.5)
Actual line: Idaho (+1)
The play: Bowling Green (-1)
Not much to say here, other than that I've become somewhat fascinated with the prospect that the Idaho college football team is playing in a division I Bowl game. Just baffles me to no end. I don't think my conscience had even allowed me to ever really focus on the fact that there was even a football team that existed up there. Not to knock the team or anything -- they've had a fairly successful season and have played very well at times, definitely earning their spot to this Bowl -- no matter how lowly and insignificant it may be in comparison to the others.
I'm surprised they haven't tried to do some spin on Idaho potatoes for a new Bowl game. Maybe something tacky and incredibly corny such as "The Idaho Potatoes Are Delicious and Grown in Idaho As If That Makes a Difference Spuds Bowl". At the very least if something like that ever comes to fruition, hopefully it will be the catalyst with which the college football playoff is enthroned.
There's another idea for an article. Discussing the two opposing sides of the college football playoff debate and also analyze how incredibly amazing it would be if it ever happened. I would probably be so overjoyed that I would be in shock for the inaugural tournament and miss it entirely. Also, does any other event quite summarize the phrase "Cream my pants" so well? I would submit the answer of "No" to that question.
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Houston vs. Air Force
My line: Air Force (+2.5)
Actual line: Air Force (+4.5)
The side: Air Force (+4.5)
Both Navy AND the Air Force in college football bowls? Do thine eyes deceive me?! Nay! Nay m'lord!
And not only that, but I'm on the Air Force side of the spread for the upcoming game. Who woulda thunk it. If you told me this five years ago, I would have promptly ran the other way as fast as possible. I don't mess with people who say they can see into the future and ####. Perfectly fine with the present over here thanks! Moving onward!
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Oklahoma vs. Stanford
My line: Stanford (+7)
Actual line: Stanford (+9)
The side: Stanford (+9)
An extra two points against the spread isn't a whole lot, but it's certainly nothing to scoff at or complain about. I would equate it to being given a free mouse pad for your computer. At the time you get it, you're not entirely sure what to think. Should you be happy? Disappointed? Sad?
One thing is for certain at least. You should definitely NOT be sad that you can bet the Stanford Cardinals getting nine points right now. It may even prove to be a gift that keeps on giving. Hey, wait a second -- JUST like a mouse pad!
And you thought I didn't know where I was going with the mouse pad bit. Pssht!
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Navy vs. Missouri
My line: Missouri (-2.5)
Actual line: EV/PK
The side: Missouri (EV)
It's good to see Navy back in the somewhat bright lights of the Texas Bowl. It's not good to see such unimaginative, uninspired naming of the minor BCS bowls. Seriously – they couldn't dig any deeper than frigging Texas?
I think they should create a council whose sole purpose is to oversee and edit all of the college Bowl games so that they are respectable and very hard to make fun of. Even if it was Temple playing against Duke, people should still be excited because they were playing in the College Hall of Fame Classic Bowl. Or something. It's not that hard. Bowls like the Chic-Fil-A just hafta go. I legitimately get mad whenever I see anything about it on TV and stuff. Probably not "normal" but whatever. I'm passionate about my football. And I've accepted that I'm nowhere frigging close to normal a long, long time ago.
Anyway, I think they should hire me as the council leader and give me an office with a comfortable swivel chair, dozens of black ball point pens, one of those flippy calendars with the comics on each page aaaaand maybe – nay -- DEFINITELY a Slush Puppy machine. If they could swing it… which I'm sure they could. At least I hope so.
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Minnesota vs. Iowa State
My line: Iowa State (+5)
Actual line: Iowa State (+2.5)
The side: Minnesota (-2.5)
I'm running out of things to say about each selection. I should have just left well alone and let the lines and sides speak for themselves. But of course, I didn't. Charging forward!
In a nutshell, Iowa State isn't getting as many points as the numbers are saying they should, so, we logically go with the stronger team who presents more of a value bet in Minnesota at -2.5.
Also, the sky is blue and the grass green.
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Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
My line: Tennessee (+7)
Actual line: Tennessee (+5)
The side: Virginia Tech (-5)
Write it down in crayon: the Virginia Tech Hokies will spank -- I repeat, "spank" -- the Tennessee Volunteers in their upcoming Chic-Fil-A Bowl game, otherwise known as the most horribly named Bowl game to have ever existed in the history of college Bowl games. Also, preferably use red crayon to emphasize the spanking more.
If the Vols don't get spanked, then, well, I'll do something to make fun of myself in some way. And for the record, by spanked – at least in my book, I consider anything < 14 points a "spanking". And yes, I just completely thought that up off the top of my head. It sounds right, though, so it's all good in the hood, homes!
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West Virginia vs. Florida State
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: Florida State (+2.5)
The side: Florida State (+2.5)
Roses are red. Violets are blue.
West Virginia is good... but so is FSU too!
ZING!
CLEARLY, I've been wasting my time with this writing ####. I should have been writing and spitting poetry all along! It is incredibly clear from the above poem that absolutely KILL the strictly roses are red, violets are blue poems and rap game.
On a more serious, non-delirious from being sleepy note, here's to the Seminoles getting it done for the first time in a long time! I miss the days when I was a kid and Florida and Florida State actually meant something. Back when Jaquez Green and Danny Werfuell (sorry, not going to go and look up the proper spelling for that – too tired) were on Florida. Damnit. I'm getting old!
Florida should fall back to the ground with the rest of the mere college football mortals next year with a ####load of their starters leaving. And Tebow, too? Ut-oh's!
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Arkansas vs. East Carolina
My line: East Carolina (+4.5)
Actual line: East Carolina (+8)
The side: East Carolina (+8)
East Carolina isn't a stacked powerhouse by any means, but when you take an above average squad and GIVE them EIGHT points in the spread -- well, I dunno what to tell you. Even without the handicapping formulas, this one was easy to spot and weed out as one of the easier games to pick among all of Bowl week.
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Boise State vs. Texas Christian
My line: TCU (-2.5)
Actual line: TCU (-7)
The side: Boise State (+7)
My gut says Boise State will win outright while the numbers seem to assure that +7 is entirely too many points for Boise State to be given. And they're a very good bet to cover despite the many people on the TCU bandwagon. I think my dislike for LT being a whiney little ##### has caused me to be slightly hostile towards TCU. Definitely not fair, I'll admit. Although the numbers told me to take Boise State – not my anti-LT-is-a-whining-##### bias.
All bets and money aside, this looks to be a fine game and one of the handful of match ups that will actually be a joy to watch without being involved in any underground gambling shenanigans.
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Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: Georgia Tech (-4)
The side: Iowa (+4)
I was very surprised when I saw this line considering there are many people that feel that Iowa is straight-up a better team outright than Georgia Tech. Not a ton, but enough that Iowa +4 is finger-licking good. Then again, it's always those games that you were sure would finish on your side that turn out disastrously different. Regardless of what goes on, it's going to be one heck of a game. Having money on it only makes it more enjoyable and ulcer-inducing by tenfold.
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Texas vs. Alabama
My line: Alabama (-2.5)
Actual line: Alabama (-5)
The side: Texas (+5)
Finally, at long last, we've made it to the last game and I can assure you, the last section of this article/small novel -- basically my Magna Opus.
On the game front, I have a bad feeling that the national title game isn't going to be very exciting and one team is going to get blown out by the other. Hopefully not and we see some good football played.
Here's to Texas keeping it close and everyone coming out of this year's Bowl series on top and in the green. And since that's highly unlikely to happen, let's all just try to enjoy the games the best we can and not try to get too ####faced come Christmas and New Years. Or at least tell ourselves that we'll try. That's really all that should be asked of us, no?
Be safe and please don't go and bet the deed to your house or the pink slip to your car or something equally as stupid on these picks. I hereby am abstained from any idiocy that happens from here on out should some dum-dum think I'm some kind of handicapping guru and my touts are worthy of the roof he lives under and the clothes on his back. Highly unlikely, but judging from some of the morons I've had the displeasure of meeting throughout my short young life, I wouldn't be surprised.
On the other hand, if anyone out there wins big with any of these picks then please feel free to shoot a couple of envelopes filled with them Benjamin's my way. Or buy me a PS3. That'll work, too.
Anyway, now it's time we say goodbye til the next mini-novella. Have a safe and profitable holiday!
Other than that, please do enjoy! And know ahead of time that this bad boy is around 5,000 words. Kinda got carried away a little bit but it is chalk full of good, informative stuff. I promise!
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I've always said that gambling helps you to appreciate the little things in life. Mind you, it helps you appreciate the little things in life that you're actually gambling on and not, say, a beautiful oak tree changing color in the autumn or something deep like that. Regardless, it still helps you appreciate some of the little things in the football world none-the-less. Case in point: Central Michigan vs. Troy State.
Is anyone in their right minds looking forward to this bowl game save for the locals of each campus and perhaps some diehard fans of everything college football? And even then, even the diehards may find it a chore to "get it up" for this game. Unless of course…
If you've said to yourself during the last few paragraphs, "Well gamblers, of course!" then you my friend, are as clever as the cleverest boy. And with great reading and comprehension skills to boot. Well done!
Back on the serious front, I was thinking about the whole gambling allows you to appreciate the little things in life the other day as I sat pouring over spreadsheets and notebooks containing all sorts of NFL and college football statistics that I needed for handicapping purposes.
We'll get to that in a bit, but until then, I'm going to discuss my brief history with handicapping football. Only in an effort to reassure everyone that while I'm no tout guru or anything, I've had some marginal success handicapping with my own lines, comparing them to the actual lines and then jumping on anything I saw with value. And yes, I'm going to list all 15 games from the upcoming college football bowl season at the end of this -- including which side I think is the winning one and also what I handicapped each game at spread-wise.
If that sounds boring to you then I suggest you leave now. If it sounded mildly intriguing, then I encourage you to stay a bit longer and at least take a look at which sides my handicapping system has picked for the games in which I found some value. Or at least print this bad-boy out and use for enjoyable bathroom reading. On the other hand, if what I just said sounded exciting in any way to you then you my friend, are in good company!
Hopefully the last category of people I just talked about will appreciate the 5,000ish words I busted out for this holiday special. I know I haven't written much in a while so I figured I needed to come back with a boom. I didn't expect it to be a 5,000 word boom but whatever. I'm calling this my 2009 Magna Opus, mainly because it sounds cool. Hopefully I remembered the term right and I'm not calling this something that doesn't make sense it Latin or whatever. No matter. Moving forward!
You can't really explain gambling and to a lesser extent, handicapping spreads to someone who has never experienced it. It's kind of like sex and Rice Krispy Treats Cereal in this way. Both are one of the few natural rushes or highs that you can get based on personal experiences and being with completely sober friends, one of whom hit a five team parlay (which I had actually tried to convince him out of doing – mainly because I have a strict rule of never betting more than two teams on any given parlay, but that's another tale for another day) and if you didn't know any better you probably would have thought he was all jacked up on some illegal substance. He just sat there for the first ten minutes after winning with a ####-eating grin on his face. Frigging kid was acting like he just won a half a million dollars. I think he walked away with less than $400 when it was all said and done. Still though, it's that initial rush when you know you've won. Indescribable. As is the feeling you get when you lose by thiiiiiiiiiiis much. That feeling sucks bad and because of this, we will steer clear of discussing it. I'd like this to be a positive, happy Magna Opus, not a depressing one.
It all makes sense when you break it all down. Our lives are ruled by money in nearly all conceivable areas. Although it's been suggested that there's a lot more to life than just having a lot of money, it can still be easily agreed upon that having a lot of money certainly doesn't hurt things either (usually). Especially if you've just won it in bulk thanks to one phone call, a few notes on a piece of paper and sitting in front of a television whining like a little girl for three and a half hours.
Now, if you haven't been able to tell, I've been quite taken with the whole gambling thing for some time. Probably since the first day I won $10 betting on the color of the next car to come down my street with my friend back in the dizz-ay when I was like... 11 years old. Unsurprisingly, we are both still very close friends to this day and bet on every single thing possible. He once tried to drunkenly explain to me his theory about how having no problem putting money on the line for something was the true measure of a man in that you stood by your beliefs and convictions. I was also ####faced so I don't remember too much of it, but it was actually a nice observation that, coming from him, was entirely unexpected.
Anyway, enough side tracking stories. Let's get back on track as to the main reason I decided to amass a small army of words with my fingertips and create this behemoth.
Basically, in the interests of spreading a little holiday cheer to any and all of you who may perhaps even be brooding right now over this year's Bowl schedule spreads -- all while pounding down glass after glass of Alka-Seltzer and whiskey. I also wanted to write it for anyone else who just wants an entirely-too-in-depth-and-lengthy opinion of the upcoming slate of games, their betting lines and part of the stuff that goes in during the handicapping your own lines process.
So I've decided to open the floodgates. These floodgates contain the fruits of my valiant, knightly statistical and spreadsheet research over the past few days (and weeks, and months) of this seasons' labor.
Again, I'm not trying to claim that this is the end-all be-all and you should drop down the mortgage money for your house on the sides I've taken. Ideally, anyone who's on the fence about a particular set of games or just wants to learn more about one of the ways to handicap games and find value in particular bets. If you don't like college football, gambling, or anything along the lines of handicapping sports, then once again, it might be best if you spent your time more wisely elsewhere. Unless of course I've peaked your interests.
I have a feeling that approximately 12-15% or so of the people who start reading this will actually get this far into the write-up. So if you're still reading this, congratulations! It only gets better from here on out! Seriously, I promise!
For those of you who don't know, I fancy myself somewhat of an amateur football handicapper. Nothing special -- I'm certainly no guru or anything by any means, but I take it all fairly seriously and have spent a small eternity tweaking formulas, troubleshooting spreadsheets and generally checking and rechecking every single thing that I did in fear that one small slip-up could be the undoing of everything.
As for "walking the walk" with my handicapping -- in short, over the last two seasons, my little system I've created has hit 55.2% success in the NFL and 60.7% in the college ranks. I tried to open up a tout service of my own which went quite well for a short while -- especially since I went out of my way to be as different from the other tout services as manly possible.
I stated multiple times throughout my website that I offered no locks of the week or sure-things. Why? Well, because they don't exist. I don't care if you've somehow scored the top team in the league getting 20 points at home. A few broken bones and a motivated locker room speech later and bam! That's all it takes to once again prove to us that on Any Given Sunday, many gamblers are oft to end up incredibly disappointed. And broke.
To make a long story short, Paypal discovered my little business venture and proceeded to freeze my funds. Several enraging phone calls and an attempt at comparing what I was doing to showing someone how to shoot a gun – it's not my fault if they went and shot it (since I was giving away betting touts, not actually going through the betting process with them), I realized that I wasn't going to get anywhere with them. Getting paid for gambling related stuff on your Paypal account is apparently a big no-no. I decided it was all probably for the better. That didn't stop me from continuing to handicap, though. Oh no! That #### is incredibly addictive once you start getting going with it, almost to the point where if you slipped up and didn't do your lines properly for the week, you almost felt a bit empty and naked as you watched on Sunday. Almost as if you could be missing out on some huge payday but would never really know. It's a love/hate type hobby for sure, but it's very rewarding in the long run if you put the work in and create some shortcuts here and there.
If anyone is legitimately interested in learning the basics of handicapping (pro and college football only – I haven't stepped into the other sports… yet) then just hit me up via PM or e-mail or something and I'll gladly be of as much assistance as possible and get you pointed in the right direction.
Hopefully that's enough of a brief bio to show I'm somewhat knowledgeable about the handicapping game. Again, I still have a lot to learn and a lot of bad habits to fix but I think I have the gist of it down fairly comfortable enough. I've been itching to try and somehow come up with a point scale for basketball or baseball to do the same with them, but that's a topic for another day as well.
Now even though I think it goes without saying, I'll say it again as I've learned that some people have impossibly thick skulls sometimes. Any bets placed in any sport are at your own risk. Nothing is for certain or a "mortal locks" in the world of sports betting. If someone's telling you as such then they're trying to butter you up and they're a snake in mobsters clothing. Seriously, I've always wondered how they could call this #### a mortal lock or, my favorite, "mortal lock of the century". Unless I've somehow avoided seeing tout services talk about their psychic abilities to see into the future, I think everyone would do well to throw all this "mortal lock" and "iron lock of the week" #### back in their faces.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose and never assume that you're going to win a bet unless the game is well underway. Suffice to say, I don't want to be responsible for anyone reading this and thinking that I have some secret magic formula that helps to pick winning bets. In a nutshell, I make my handicapped line with a fairly basic but still complex formula that takes into account things like strength of schedule, points scored minus points against, etc. Everything is weighted against the average into letter grades (A-F) and compared to a chart that tells you how many points to give a team of whatever letter grade or number grade they are.
For example, a team that is a C grade overall gets 0 points, while a D+ team is considered -3.5 points worse than the league average C teams. You also must take into account home field advantage (which wasn't much of a problem or issue for the Bowl games) and the general consensus is awarding the home team in additional 1.5 - 3 points per the philosophy the particular handicapper subscribes under.
So say a C team was playing a D+ team and the C team was at home. On neutral ground, the C grade team would be 3.5 points better than the D+ team. But at home, they're likely to be 5+ points better. So after calculating what my unbiased spread is I take a look at the Vegas spreads. If there is a certain difference between the two, I see it as a value bet. As in, my spread number is what the line IS whereas the Vegas spread is only to get people to bet on both sides so they always come out on top.
Say my spread says Team A should be giving -6 to Team B but the Vegas line only has them giving -3.5. Based on all of my statistics and research, Team A should by all intents and purposes be favored by -6 -- so betting on them at -3.5 represents value. My handicapping says that they SHOULD be giving 6 points, but they only have to cover -3.5 per the Vegas spread. Hopefully some of that made sense if not all. Because regardless, we're moving onward.
Out of the 34 Bowl games that we will be so graciously enjoying these coming weeks, I've marked 15 of them as having spreads/lines that offer some significant amount of value that's worth betting on.
I'm not going to bother to explain how the games are listed with my handicapped line and the actual spread line -- mainly since I've placed the actual spread line beside a cleverly marked label of "Actual line:" and MY handicapped lines beside an equally as cleverly marked label of "My lines." Thank you, I thought that was clever as well.
Anyway, let's get this shizzle started!
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I've provided this brief break in space to suggest that anyone who's been holding in their piss for the past fifteen minutes go and relieve themselves so you can stop squirming around. Yes, that means YOU!
Feel free to stretch out, pop open some whiskey or bust out some brew-ha-ha's as well. Not that you couldn't have done as such already without my permission, but I think these things are important to remind my readers about. You just don't get this weird-### #### from anyone else for better or worse!
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Oregon State vs. Brigham Young
My line: BYU (+4.5)
Actual Line: BYU (+2)
The Side: Oregon State (-2)
This has all the makings of a shellacking to me. And I say that only because my gut feeling has been backed up by my precious little spreadsheets and numbers and what-not. Usually when I just get gut feelings, they're always almost certainly wrong -- terrifically wrong even. But don't worry, I never go by my gut feelings with any touts. Ever. And neither should you.
If I ever had, I suppose I would have been burned, feathered and tossed into an ocean somewhere a long, long time ago after giving my "gut" pick to some guy named Sal who proceeded to lose ten dimes on it. Definitely doesn't sound like a good time whatsoever.
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Utah vs. California
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: California (-3)
The side: Utah (+3)
I was pretty surprised that there were so many +/- 3 spreads for this year's Bowl Games. Usually a + or - 3 spread reveals that the bookies really think that the teams are equal -- should they have ever played on a neutral field. +2, +2.5 or +3 is usually given as a bonus for home field advantage (like we talked about earlier). Since there's no real home field in the Bowl games, I suppose that means the bookies actually think that California is a field goal better than Utah. And while I could be wrong, I'll take Utah and those juicy, delectable little points.
Aaaaaaaaaand it's now official! I need to go make something to eat.
Oh, if anyone knows of any of these games I'm listing being played somewhere close to any of where the two teams live/play then please lemme know and we might tweak the spreads a bit and maybe even the side that we're ultimately on. Riveting stuff!
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Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: North Carolina (+3)
The play: North Carolina (+3)
Taking North Carolina +3 all day, all day! Why? Well, if you haven't figured it out yet, they aren't supposed to be getting ANY points at all per my handicap. Getting three whole points against an oft-shaky Pittsburgh squad is like being giddy on Christmas morning as a child all over again. Except this time, instead of getting video games, you're getting money instead. Hopefully perhaps a few strippers and/or prostitutes to kick it up a notch as well.
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Miami vs. Wisconsin
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: Wisconsin (+3)
The side: Wisconsin (+3)
Does anyone else ever find themselves overestimating Miami and having trouble ever going against them because of the powerhouse-juggernaut they used to be not so long ago? I'm not going to lie. I do.
Thankfully, once again, I don't bet based on my own gut feelings. And neither should anyone really. Too many people's bets are clouded with bias and stubborn opinions or judgments. Indeed, this is perhaps why the Vegas bookies looooooooove the Mr. Joe Public so much. The same one who always flocks into Vegas each year by the tens of thousands and NEVER fails to place his bets with a vehement hometown bias that has been ever-so-lovingly instilled in him by the equally-as-vehement and biased sports talk town radio jockeys.
No matter how loyal you are to specific players or teams, you should always just remind yourself that money knows no bias. You will either see through said haze for what it truly is, go along with the warm, comforting feeling of actual facts and statistics or you'll just probably you lie to yourself while happily going the opposite way. This topic is owed a whole other article in and of itself. I need to write that down before I forget. Actually, I just did! ZING!
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Bowling Green vs. Idaho
My line: Idaho (+4.5)
Actual line: Idaho (+1)
The play: Bowling Green (-1)
Not much to say here, other than that I've become somewhat fascinated with the prospect that the Idaho college football team is playing in a division I Bowl game. Just baffles me to no end. I don't think my conscience had even allowed me to ever really focus on the fact that there was even a football team that existed up there. Not to knock the team or anything -- they've had a fairly successful season and have played very well at times, definitely earning their spot to this Bowl -- no matter how lowly and insignificant it may be in comparison to the others.
I'm surprised they haven't tried to do some spin on Idaho potatoes for a new Bowl game. Maybe something tacky and incredibly corny such as "The Idaho Potatoes Are Delicious and Grown in Idaho As If That Makes a Difference Spuds Bowl". At the very least if something like that ever comes to fruition, hopefully it will be the catalyst with which the college football playoff is enthroned.
There's another idea for an article. Discussing the two opposing sides of the college football playoff debate and also analyze how incredibly amazing it would be if it ever happened. I would probably be so overjoyed that I would be in shock for the inaugural tournament and miss it entirely. Also, does any other event quite summarize the phrase "Cream my pants" so well? I would submit the answer of "No" to that question.
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Houston vs. Air Force
My line: Air Force (+2.5)
Actual line: Air Force (+4.5)
The side: Air Force (+4.5)
Both Navy AND the Air Force in college football bowls? Do thine eyes deceive me?! Nay! Nay m'lord!
And not only that, but I'm on the Air Force side of the spread for the upcoming game. Who woulda thunk it. If you told me this five years ago, I would have promptly ran the other way as fast as possible. I don't mess with people who say they can see into the future and ####. Perfectly fine with the present over here thanks! Moving onward!
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Oklahoma vs. Stanford
My line: Stanford (+7)
Actual line: Stanford (+9)
The side: Stanford (+9)
An extra two points against the spread isn't a whole lot, but it's certainly nothing to scoff at or complain about. I would equate it to being given a free mouse pad for your computer. At the time you get it, you're not entirely sure what to think. Should you be happy? Disappointed? Sad?
One thing is for certain at least. You should definitely NOT be sad that you can bet the Stanford Cardinals getting nine points right now. It may even prove to be a gift that keeps on giving. Hey, wait a second -- JUST like a mouse pad!
And you thought I didn't know where I was going with the mouse pad bit. Pssht!
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Navy vs. Missouri
My line: Missouri (-2.5)
Actual line: EV/PK
The side: Missouri (EV)
It's good to see Navy back in the somewhat bright lights of the Texas Bowl. It's not good to see such unimaginative, uninspired naming of the minor BCS bowls. Seriously – they couldn't dig any deeper than frigging Texas?
I think they should create a council whose sole purpose is to oversee and edit all of the college Bowl games so that they are respectable and very hard to make fun of. Even if it was Temple playing against Duke, people should still be excited because they were playing in the College Hall of Fame Classic Bowl. Or something. It's not that hard. Bowls like the Chic-Fil-A just hafta go. I legitimately get mad whenever I see anything about it on TV and stuff. Probably not "normal" but whatever. I'm passionate about my football. And I've accepted that I'm nowhere frigging close to normal a long, long time ago.
Anyway, I think they should hire me as the council leader and give me an office with a comfortable swivel chair, dozens of black ball point pens, one of those flippy calendars with the comics on each page aaaaand maybe – nay -- DEFINITELY a Slush Puppy machine. If they could swing it… which I'm sure they could. At least I hope so.
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Minnesota vs. Iowa State
My line: Iowa State (+5)
Actual line: Iowa State (+2.5)
The side: Minnesota (-2.5)
I'm running out of things to say about each selection. I should have just left well alone and let the lines and sides speak for themselves. But of course, I didn't. Charging forward!
In a nutshell, Iowa State isn't getting as many points as the numbers are saying they should, so, we logically go with the stronger team who presents more of a value bet in Minnesota at -2.5.
Also, the sky is blue and the grass green.
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Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
My line: Tennessee (+7)
Actual line: Tennessee (+5)
The side: Virginia Tech (-5)
Write it down in crayon: the Virginia Tech Hokies will spank -- I repeat, "spank" -- the Tennessee Volunteers in their upcoming Chic-Fil-A Bowl game, otherwise known as the most horribly named Bowl game to have ever existed in the history of college Bowl games. Also, preferably use red crayon to emphasize the spanking more.
If the Vols don't get spanked, then, well, I'll do something to make fun of myself in some way. And for the record, by spanked – at least in my book, I consider anything < 14 points a "spanking". And yes, I just completely thought that up off the top of my head. It sounds right, though, so it's all good in the hood, homes!
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West Virginia vs. Florida State
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: Florida State (+2.5)
The side: Florida State (+2.5)
Roses are red. Violets are blue.
West Virginia is good... but so is FSU too!
ZING!
CLEARLY, I've been wasting my time with this writing ####. I should have been writing and spitting poetry all along! It is incredibly clear from the above poem that absolutely KILL the strictly roses are red, violets are blue poems and rap game.
On a more serious, non-delirious from being sleepy note, here's to the Seminoles getting it done for the first time in a long time! I miss the days when I was a kid and Florida and Florida State actually meant something. Back when Jaquez Green and Danny Werfuell (sorry, not going to go and look up the proper spelling for that – too tired) were on Florida. Damnit. I'm getting old!
Florida should fall back to the ground with the rest of the mere college football mortals next year with a ####load of their starters leaving. And Tebow, too? Ut-oh's!
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Arkansas vs. East Carolina
My line: East Carolina (+4.5)
Actual line: East Carolina (+8)
The side: East Carolina (+8)
East Carolina isn't a stacked powerhouse by any means, but when you take an above average squad and GIVE them EIGHT points in the spread -- well, I dunno what to tell you. Even without the handicapping formulas, this one was easy to spot and weed out as one of the easier games to pick among all of Bowl week.
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Boise State vs. Texas Christian
My line: TCU (-2.5)
Actual line: TCU (-7)
The side: Boise State (+7)
My gut says Boise State will win outright while the numbers seem to assure that +7 is entirely too many points for Boise State to be given. And they're a very good bet to cover despite the many people on the TCU bandwagon. I think my dislike for LT being a whiney little ##### has caused me to be slightly hostile towards TCU. Definitely not fair, I'll admit. Although the numbers told me to take Boise State – not my anti-LT-is-a-whining-##### bias.
All bets and money aside, this looks to be a fine game and one of the handful of match ups that will actually be a joy to watch without being involved in any underground gambling shenanigans.
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Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
My line: EV/PK
Actual line: Georgia Tech (-4)
The side: Iowa (+4)
I was very surprised when I saw this line considering there are many people that feel that Iowa is straight-up a better team outright than Georgia Tech. Not a ton, but enough that Iowa +4 is finger-licking good. Then again, it's always those games that you were sure would finish on your side that turn out disastrously different. Regardless of what goes on, it's going to be one heck of a game. Having money on it only makes it more enjoyable and ulcer-inducing by tenfold.
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Texas vs. Alabama
My line: Alabama (-2.5)
Actual line: Alabama (-5)
The side: Texas (+5)
Finally, at long last, we've made it to the last game and I can assure you, the last section of this article/small novel -- basically my Magna Opus.
On the game front, I have a bad feeling that the national title game isn't going to be very exciting and one team is going to get blown out by the other. Hopefully not and we see some good football played.
Here's to Texas keeping it close and everyone coming out of this year's Bowl series on top and in the green. And since that's highly unlikely to happen, let's all just try to enjoy the games the best we can and not try to get too ####faced come Christmas and New Years. Or at least tell ourselves that we'll try. That's really all that should be asked of us, no?
Be safe and please don't go and bet the deed to your house or the pink slip to your car or something equally as stupid on these picks. I hereby am abstained from any idiocy that happens from here on out should some dum-dum think I'm some kind of handicapping guru and my touts are worthy of the roof he lives under and the clothes on his back. Highly unlikely, but judging from some of the morons I've had the displeasure of meeting throughout my short young life, I wouldn't be surprised.
On the other hand, if anyone out there wins big with any of these picks then please feel free to shoot a couple of envelopes filled with them Benjamin's my way. Or buy me a PS3. That'll work, too.
Anyway, now it's time we say goodbye til the next mini-novella. Have a safe and profitable holiday!
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Well done though. As an avid sportsbetter, I may follow a few of your plays.
If you don't mind me asking, what spreadsheet software do you use, Excel? Or do you manage all the stats a different way?
