Maybe I missed it, but what are Harvin fans predicting for usage? His stats have always been padded by close to 100/1 rushing, which I have a hard time counting on with a new team. I do agree that there's a good chance he's used as an outside receiver more, which should improve his YPR (while decreasing his catch rate), but I have a hard time predicting more than 120 targets in this offense. I also think Rice is a very good outside option when healthy.
My current guess for Harvin is:
120 targets x 68% = 81.6 rec x 13 ypr = 1060 yds 7 TD
12 rush x 5 ypc = 60 yds 0 TD
Mid level WR2. Roughly around his current ADP. I don't think he's injury prone so no need to discount him there, so I feel like he's one of those guys that is valued just right by his ADP. Should have a pretty high floor (I'd be shocked if he got less than 100 targets) and with some upside if they give him more carries or decide to pass more than last year.
You are way too low on rushing attempts IMO. After hardly playing all season, he played 48 snaps in the playoffs. During those snaps, he was officially targeted 7 times, catching 4 passes and drawing one defensive penalty, and he had 3 carries for 54 yards. Those carries went for 9, 15, and 30 yards.
If healthy, I think he will average at least 2 carries per game. That could mean 200+ rushing yards. And I doubt he would carry the ball that often with zero rushing TDs.
1 TD/32 carries is a pretty good conversion rate for any RB, much less a guy who will probably get no carries in the red zone. I think 1 TD is optimistic.
I don't think last year's sample size or game situation is good enough to project his carries next season. I'm not surprised they used their very expensive toy in the running game during the playoffs. You put all your chips on the table there. But I doubt he sees a lot of action as a runner during the regular season.
Since week 9 of his rookie year, Harvin has only had less than 2 carries in a game 6 times. He's also averaged over 2 carries per game started in his career.
The way Harvin is used in the running game I don't think he's any more likely to be injured than catching a pass.
Did not know that.
Good research and Harvin fun fact.
So that is something like 42 of 48 times (87.5%) from midway through his rookie season (2009) to midway through his fourth season (2012).
* I'm seeing different numbers after double checking.
2009 - from week 9 (1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1) 5/7 games less than 2 carries (first 8 weeks, 6/8)
2010 - (1, 0, 2, 0, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2) 7/14 games less than 2 carries
2011 - (4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 5) 3/16 games less than 2 carries
2012 - (5, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4) 2/9 games less than 2 carries
I don't see a reason to leave out the first half of his rookie season, he had 2 or more carries twice in the first 8 games and twice in the last 7 games.
In his first two seasons, he had less than 2 carries in 18/29 games.
He was much better in the next two seasons (really season and a half), he had less than 2 carries 5/25 games, 2 or more 80% of the time.
An amazing 52 carries in 2011, 22 in 9 games of 2012 prorates to about 40.
I wonder if there are some TEAMS in NFL history that didn't have that many combined WR rushes in a DECADE.
Not sure if 2011 was a record for WR carries, Dexter McCluster had 114 rushes that same year, PFR had him listed at WR?
BTW, SEA OC Darrell Bevell held the same position for part of Harvin's tenure in MIN, but Bill Musgrave was the OC when he was used so extensively as a rusher in 2011-2012.
It may not be a coincidence that 2011 was the year Christian Ponder was drafted (started playing week 6). It is possible that the monster rush numbers that season were due to a decision that the QB had such hinky accuracy as a rookie (54.3%) that it was just safer and more effective to get the ball in Harvin's hands by handing the ball off to him. That obviously won't be an issue with Wilson. Though on that first jet sweep carry in the Super Bowl, if he could have tip-toed along the sideline (his momentum carried him out of bounds), that would have been a long TD.
Most people know this, but Harvin was primarily a RB at Florida. Sometimes people like WRs that are great returners (like Harvin and Patterson, Tim Brown, Eric Metcalf, etc., though guys like Devin Hester and Josh Cribbs were great returners but it didn't translate to WR very well) because you know they have outstanding elusiveness and open field moves. Another saying is, that WR is like a RB in the open field. Harvin, literally is a RB in the open field. Metcalf was a collegiate RB that had 31 receiving TDs, 12 rushing TDs and 12 return TDs. He is second in NFL history with 10 punt return TDs, was a 3 X All-Pro, and like Harvin, very compact at 5'10", 190 lbs. and a track star. He still is in the top 10 all time for an indoor long jump by a prep, still holds the University of Texas record, was a 2 X NCAA champ and finished 8th in the Olympic Trials. He was a multi-purpose weapon in CLE, than had the great receiving season with over 100 receptions his first year in the run and shoot with ATL in 1995.
Are there any other college (primarily ) RBs that have had as high a level of success at WR in the NFL (not sure if conversion is the right word, as I think Harvin played WR at Florida, too).
