Harvin to Bills/ Formerly the Harvin to Hawks & Jets (1 Viewer)

[matuski]

The argument that Harvin has never had a 1000 yard receiving season as a reason he's overrated is amazing to me. He had 967 and 345 rushing. That's over 1300 yards. Should he get chastised because some of that came from running the football? Do those stats not count anymore?

so one in five means he's awesome? Point me to any post you made on these boards where you said any other WR was special because he got 1000 yards once in five years

Are people here arguing Harvin is not a special talent? One of the easier eyeball tests in the league.

 

[Faust]

Percy Harvin: It's been a 'weird, frustrating' year

 

[Faust]

Harvin ready to prove worth in Seahawks' quest for Super Bowl title

 

[Bob Magaw]

The argument that Harvin has never had a 1000 yard receiving season as a reason he's overrated is amazing to me. He had 967 and 345 rushing. That's over 1300 yards. Should he get chastised because some of that came from running the football? Do those stats not count anymore?

so one in five means he's awesome? Point me to any post you made on these boards where you said any other WR was special because he got 1000 yards once in five years

. A cross-section of some of the top WRs in the league.

Calvin Johnson didn't in two of his first three years. Missed three games in that time.

Same with Julio Jones. Missed 14 games in his first three years.

Ditto Dez Bryant. Missed five games in his first two years.

Also Demaryius Thomas. Missed 11 games in his first two years.

Andre Johnson, too (and three of his first five). Missed three games in his first three years.

Larry Fitzgerald didn't in two of his first three years. Missed three games in that span.

Reggie Wayne missed his first three seasons. Missed three games as a rookie.

A.J. Green stands out, did in all three seasons, missing only one game as a rookie in his first three years.

First rookie Pro Bowl WR (2011) since Anquan Boldin (2003), his 260 reception in first three seasons most in NFL history (and guessing his 3,833 yards and 29 TDs are near the apex).

The moral is, most WRs, even the best in the league, rarely dominate in their first three seasons (with Green being the exception that proves the rule).

Harvin - 60 receptions and 925 combined yards as rookie (15 games), 71 receptions and 975 combined yards year two (14 games), 87 receptions and 1,312 combined yards year three (16 games), 62 receptions and 773 combined yards year four (9 games) - pro rated over 16 games = 110 receptions and 1,374 combined yards. People can joke about prorating an injury prone player, but as seen from above, three missed games in his first three seasons is very much in line with ALL the above WRs (except Green), and better than some. Also, great WRs can have extended absences. Julio Jones missed 11 games in 2013. Andre Johnson has had seasons where he missed seven and nine games. Demaryius Thomas had absences of six and five games in his first two seasons. Anyways, hard to mistake an upward trajectory before this year, which could easily be a hiccup or bump in the road in retrospect, as it was for Thomas, and is expected to be for Julio Jones.

Harvin's last two seasons in MIN were with Christian Ponder at QB. What would he have done with Manning (like Wayne and Thomas), Stafford, Ryan or Romo?

 

[Bri]

The argument that Harvin has never had a 1000 yard receiving season as a reason he's overrated is amazing to me. He had 967 and 345 rushing. That's over 1300 yards. Should he get chastised because some of that came from running the football? Do those stats not count anymore?

so one in five means he's awesome? Point me to any post you made on these boards where you said any other WR was special because he got 1000 yards once in five years

Are people here arguing Harvin is not a special talent? One of the easier eyeball tests in the league.

I want more production.

I've mentioned his talent several times.

 

[Bri]

The argument that Harvin has never had a 1000 yard receiving season as a reason he's overrated is amazing to me. He had 967 and 345 rushing. That's over 1300 yards. Should he get chastised because some of that came from running the football? Do those stats not count anymore?

so one in five means he's awesome? Point me to any post you made on these boards where you said any other WR was special because he got 1000 yards once in five years

.A cross-section of some of the top WRs in the league.

Calvin Johnson didn't in two of his first three years. Missed three games in that time.

Same with Julio Jones. Missed 14 games in his first three years.

Ditto Dez Bryant. Missed five games in his first two years.

Also Demaryius Thomas. Missed 11 games in his first two years.

Andre Johnson, too (and three of his first five). Missed three games in his first three years.

Larry Fitzgerald didn't in two of his first three years. Missed three games in that span.

Reggie Wayne missed his first three seasons. Missed three games as a rookie.

A.J. Green stands out, did in all three seasons, missing only one game as a rookie in his first three years.

First rookie Pro Bowl WR (2011) since Anquan Boldin (2003), his 260 reception in first three seasons most in NFL history (and guessing his 3,833 yards and 29 TDs are near the apex).

The moral is, most WRs, even the best in the league, rarely dominate in their first three seasons (with Green being the exception that proves the rule).

I snipped the last part.

He has a very good year, no doubt.

You have this list above with all these WR in their first three years, but after one more game Harvin will be entering his sixth season. That's twice as much time to develop.

 

[Bob Magaw]

The argument that Harvin has never had a 1000 yard receiving season as a reason he's overrated is amazing to me. He had 967 and 345 rushing. That's over 1300 yards. Should he get chastised because some of that came from running the football? Do those stats not count anymore?

so one in five means he's awesome? Point me to any post you made on these boards where you said any other WR was special because he got 1000 yards once in five years

.A cross-section of some of the top WRs in the league.

Calvin Johnson didn't in two of his first three years. Missed three games in that time.

Same with Julio Jones. Missed 14 games in his first three years.

Ditto Dez Bryant. Missed five games in his first two years.

Also Demaryius Thomas. Missed 11 games in his first two years.

Andre Johnson, too (and three of his first five). Missed three games in his first three years.

Larry Fitzgerald didn't in two of his first three years. Missed three games in that span.

Reggie Wayne missed his first three seasons. Missed three games as a rookie.

A.J. Green stands out, did in all three seasons, missing only one game as a rookie in his first three years.

First rookie Pro Bowl WR (2011) since Anquan Boldin (2003), his 260 reception in first three seasons most in NFL history (and guessing his 3,833 yards and 29 TDs are near the apex).

The moral is, most WRs, even the best in the league, rarely dominate in their first three seasons (with Green being the exception that proves the rule).

I snipped the last part.

He has a very good year, no doubt.

You have this list above with all these WR in their first three years, but after one more game Harvin will be entering his sixth season. That's twice as much time to develop.

He didn't play for the last year and a half. At that point, he had played three and a half years, a half season's more development time?

2014 hasn't even started yet, and you are already counting that as a year of development? New math? Do we get to add the not yet happened 2014 season to everybody on the list or just Harvin? Than they magically have four years, which makes Harvin 50% more, not double. Only it doesn't, because he has played only three and a half years of actual football.

As far as his injury history, they were different injuries in 2012 and 2013 (does a hip injury mean he is breaking down?), and he happened to have them year four and five. Thomas missed about a third of a season in both year one and two, Julio missed as many games as a rookie than Harvin did in his first three years combined. Than Julio missed nearly three quarters of a season in his third year. Is Julio a bad WR because he only has one 1,000 yard season and has been injured?

The one good season is good shtick (Julio's only had one good season). His first two seasons were very good, for a first/second year player. He was exactly 100 yards shy of 2,000 combined yards (doesn't even count the combined 2,000+ additional yards and 3 TDs in his first two years for those leagues that reward return production). It isn't like dozens of WRs have had 1,000 yard rookie seasons in the past decade or two. How many have there been? Is your baseline, default assumption that any WR that doesn't have a 1,000 yard rookie season is doomed to mediocrity. Again, are all the other above WRs that didn't have 1,000 yard rookie seasons suspect on that basis? You didn't really address them, other than to perform the bizarre new math reckoning that they had half the development time in the stated three year time frame (!?!?).

In repeating *ONE* good season like a mantra, you are implicitly writing off the other two of his first three seasons. But as we can see from the list above, AT A COMPARABLE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, IN THEIR THREE FIRST YEARS RESPECTIVELY, none of the other WRs in the above list (except Green) had less than two missed 1,000 yard seasons in their first three years (Wayne had three). Did you think all of them were mediocre WRs after three years, on the basis of having only one or zero 1,000 yard seasons? Did that make Calvin Johnson mediocre?

* the snipped part, for reference.

Harvin - 60 receptions and 925 combined yards as rookie (15 games), 71 receptions and 975 combined yards year two (14 games), 87 receptions and 1,312 combined yards year three (16 games), 62 receptions and 773 combined yards year four (9 games) - pro rated over 16 games = 110 receptions and 1,374 combined yards. People can joke about prorating an injury prone player, but as seen from above, three missed games in his first three seasons is very much in line with ALL the above WRs (except Green), and better than some. Also, great WRs can have extended absences. Julio Jones missed 11 games in 2013. Andre Johnson has had seasons where he missed seven and nine games. Demaryius Thomas had absences of six and five games in his first two seasons. Anyways, hard to mistake an upward trajectory before this year, which could easily be a hiccup or bump in the road in retrospect, as it was for Thomas, and is expected to be for Julio Jones.

Harvin's last two seasons in MIN were with Christian Ponder at QB. What would he have done with Manning (like Wayne and Thomas), Stafford, Ryan or Romo?

 

[Bri]

I wrote after this game entering his sixth and you wrote 2014 hasn't even started yet...cmon

 

[Bob Magaw]

I wrote after this game entering his sixth and you wrote 2014 hasn't even started yet...cmon

Way to address several indefensible positions. All the above WRs besides Green had 1 or zero thousand yard seasons in their first three seasons. So they must have been mediocre in your book, including Calvin Johnson? You said "one good season" for Harvin so were being dismissive of his first two, prior to the year three 1,300+ yard breakout. When confronted with evidence that this first three year pattern is not unlike some of the league's top WRs, you are doing the equivalent of covering your ears and saying... la la la, la la la.

Julio is entering his fourth year in the NFL with one thousand yard season. Is he mediocre?

Is 100 yards shy of 2,000 yards combined in Harvin's first two seasons (with 2,000 combined return yards in his first two years) mediocre? How many rookies had 1,000 yards in the past decade or two?

Is Harvin entering his sixth season twice as many NFL seasons as Julio Jones entering his fourth? That would be 50% more, not "twice as much"?

 

[Bob Magaw]

Today would be a good day to start earning his top 5 WR salary.

 

[mr roboto]

Wow.

 

[matuski]

Large Mouth Bass wait....

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Coming back here to admit I was wrong. No question Harvin is making an impact in the SB, even well before his TD return.

 

[ang12]

/thread

 

[fruity pebbles]

Today would be a good day to start earning his top 5 WR salary.

every penny

 

[FunkyPlutos]

He will be the Super Bowl MVP!

 

[MAC_32]

/thread

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@SportsCenter: Crazy stat of the day: Percy Harvin is 1st player to ever lead an NFL postseason game in rushing on fewer than 3 carries. (via @EliasSports)

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Percy Harvin played on just 29-of-61 offensive snaps in Sunday's Super Bowl 48 win.

The Seahawks gave up the No. 25 overall pick in the 2013 draft to acquire Harvin and then handed him a $67 million contract that included $25.5 million guaranteed. He ended up playing just 68 snaps all year, yet Seattle still won the Super Bowl with Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin as their primary wideouts. Harvin looked like he was completely over his hip issue Sunday night, rushing two times for 45 yards and taking a kickoff 87 yards for a score. Expect him to lead Seattle's wideouts in snaps next season. Harvin remains among the most uniquely productive players in the league with the ball in his hands.


Source: profootballfocus.com

Percy Harvin turned three offensive touches into 50 total yards and returned a kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl 48.

On Seattle's second offensive play, Harvin ripped off 30 yards on a jet sweep, confirming his trademark explosiveness is still all there despite this being just his third appearance out of his last possible 25 games. He tacked on five yards on a second-drive screen, and 15 more on another jet sweep late in the first quarter. Harvin opened the second half with an 87-yard kickoff return touchdown to put the game on ice. Still just 25 years old, Harvin will be a classic boom-bust fantasy pick in 2014 with big injury red flags but WR1 talent on a run-first team. He has true difference-making ability on both offense and special teams.

 

[Bob Magaw]

From the 2013 NFLs Top 100 Players files...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APDSnAGf4wA

A reminder of what makes him one of the best in the NFL. His burst and stop/start ability (some WR/RBs can accelerate but not decelerate quickly) are stupid. For one of the most explosive players in the NFL, his combination of contact balance and power (reportedly benches 400+ lbs.) are jaw dropping. Check the play at the 3:33 mark (that isn't normal ). For a WR/RB that lined up in the backfield a lot at Florida, he has outstanding, natural hands. Also, his vision and instincts with the ball in his hands in the open field are borderline telepathic.

 

[Faust]

Richard Sherman: Harvin will boost Seahawks offense

By Chris Wesseling

Around the League Writer

Percy Harvin waltzed into Super Bowl XLVIII with 40 snaps under his belt and nearly walked away with Malcolm Smith's MVP award after generating 137 electric yards on his first four touches.

A healthy Harvin is one of the league's rare difference-making talents. He was arguably the NFL's premier receiver on film early in the 2012 season before going down with an ankle injury.

The Seahawks believe Harvin's return to the starting lineup will make them even more formidable next season than they were as the NFL's dominant team in 2013.

"Without Harvin, we were just biding time," cornerback Richard Sherman wrote in TheMMQB.com on Friday. "With him, our offense is one of the NFL's best."

Tight end Zach Miller expressed similar sentiments after the Super Bowl, telling Around The League's Marc Sessler that Harvin's scintillating performance was merely a sneak preview for what the Seahawks will unveil in 2014.

Even as the Seahawks' offense stumbled late in the season against a string of top-tier defenses, they still finished seventh in Football Outsiders' metrics.

They would have been closer to the top of the list had offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell been able to follow through on his offseason plans to use more exotic formations with Harvin expanding the field and spreading opposing defenses thin.

Don't expect the coaching staff to limit Harvin's role in an effort to keep him healthy next season.

"He's not just a slot player," coach Pete Carroll told SiriusXM NFL Radio on Friday. "I want him to be an every down player. There's no reason he shouldn't be."

The Seahawks made a big commitment when they acquired Harvin last offseason. They want to ensure that they get their money's worth going forward.

The luxury of utilizing Harvin's full capabilities is just one of several reasons that Carroll's squad will be favored to repeat as champs in 2014.

In the latest "Around The League Podcast," the guys ponder the future in both Seattle and Denver and break down the teams who intrigue them most this offseason.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Good to be a hawks fan!

 

[cacksman]

I really hope he can stay healthy next year. Those expecting him to be a FF superstar will probably be disappointed but his impact will be so much more than what he shows on the stat sheet.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Percy Harvin - WR - Seahawks

Speaking after Tuesday's OTAs session, Percy Harvin said "this is probably the best I've felt since before college."

Harvin walked a fine line of health his first three years in the league before combining to miss 22 games the past two seasons. Banged up throughout the Seahawks' postseason run, Harvin played only 29 snaps in Super Bowl 48. Harvin is perhaps the league's most lethal player with the ball in his hands, but it's possible the injuries are beginning to take a toll. Harvin turns 26 on Wednesday.

Source: Seahawks on Twitter
May 27 - 4:50 PM

 

[Faust]

Percy Harvin slated to rest in Seahawks training camp:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000360899/article/percy-harvin-slated-to-rest-in-seahawks-training-camp

 

[Sabertooth]

Percy Harvin slated to rest in Seahawks training camp:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000360899/article/percy-harvin-slated-to-rest-in-seahawks-training-camp

Lol. Not sure why he needs to rest.

 

[cstu]

He's like a piece of fine china. They should probably cover him in bubble wrap.

 

[cstu]

Specifically, coach Pete Carroll said they were being careful not to push him three days in a row, and would make similar arrangements when training camp opens late next month.

 

[Faust]

Percy Harvin 'wasn't settled' after Super Bowl win

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Percy Harvin - WR - Seahawks

Percy Harvin is penciled in as the Seahawks kickoff returner.

Harvin won't be a volume receiver in the Seahawks' run-first scheme and committee-style passing attack. So unleashing his unique running skills as a returner (28.1 yards, five touchdowns on 115 career kickoff returns) makes plenty of sense for Pete Carroll. The problem for fantasy owners in standard leagues is that Harvin will be exposing his fragile body to hits on plays we won't even be getting points for.

Source: Seattle Times Jul 14 - 7:51 AM

 

[Sabertooth]

I was very high on him, but I've cooled considerably since then. I think he'll be one of those "better football player than fantasy player" type of guys until his next injury.

 

[Noah Davis]

I think he is still an unknown in the Seattle offense. Russel Wilson has shown the abilities to open up the pass playbook more - but do they really need to? I don't think they payed him that much to not utilize him, but they won a Super Bowl without out him so it shows them he wasn't the missing piece. To me this is a very difficult situation to project.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Dynasty wise what WRs would you rather have ranked around him. Everywhere I'm looking he's in the 8-14 range

 

[cstu]

I think he is still an unknown in the Seattle offense. Russel Wilson has shown the abilities to open up the pass playbook more - but do they really need to? I don't think they payed him that much to not utilize him, but they won a Super Bowl without out him so it shows them he wasn't the missing piece. To me this is a very difficult situation to project.

Golden Tate is gone and while I'm high on Richardson he's still a rookie.

The Titans didn't exactly open the playbook but Kendall Wright caught 94 passes.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Percy Harvin - WR - Seahawks

Percy Harvin is penciled in as the Seahawks kickoff returner.

Harvin won't be a volume receiver in the Seahawks' run-first scheme and committee-style passing attack. So unleashing his unique running skills as a returner (28.1 yards, five touchdowns on 115 career kickoff returns) makes plenty of sense for Pete Carroll. The problem for fantasy owners in standard leagues is that Harvin will be exposing his fragile body to hits on plays we won't even be getting points for.

Source: Seattle Times Jul 14 - 7:51 AM

I hope everyone is aware that the bulk of that post is pure rotoworld speculation. Downgrading Percy on asssumptions of rotoworld is very bad policy. Harvin is the single most dynamic player on that offense. Period. They will get the ball in his hands more than any other WR on that team, without a doubt, and not just suicidal kick returns. Man I hate cut and paste rotoworld....

 

[georg013]

Rotoworld blurbs are kind of like horoscopes. If they say something good about YOUR guy, it's gospel. If they say something to the contrary, it's speculation.

 

[msommer]

Objectively, Harvin has been in the league for five seasons and has not yet had a 1000 yard season.

That to me does not scream top ten-fifteen WR in dynasty

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dynasty wise what WRs would you rather have ranked around him. Everywhere I'm looking he's in the 8-14 range

Not everywhere, I hope...

 

[Adam Harstad]

Objectively, Harvin has been in the league for five seasons and has not yet had a 1000 yard season.

That to me does not scream top ten-fifteen WR in dynasty

In four seasons, Harvin had 925 yards (in 15 games), 975 yards (in 14 games), 1312 yards, and 778 yards (in 9 games). Basically, he's been on a 1,000+ yard pace in every single season of his entire career. Unless your league doesn't reward rushing yards, which seems like an awfully weird league...

If you meant only as a RECEIVER... well, Harvin's been weighed down by playing in absolutely putrid passing offenses. From 2010-2012, Minnesota's passing offenses averaged fewer than 3,000 yards per season. Harvin's QBs over that time were final-season Brett Favre, Tavaris Jackson, Joe Webb, end-of-the-line Donovan McNabb, Christian Ponder, Joe Webb again, and then Christian Ponder again. Kind of a rough situation to be putting up a lot of 1,000 yard seasons. If you adjust his receiving numbers for his number of opportunities, though, they were elite- not his total numbers, I'm talking about strictly his receiving numbers. PFF keeps a stat called "Yards Per Route Run", which averages how many yards a receiver gets based on the number of routes he runs. The idea is that each route represents an opportunity, and it's supposed to be the WR equivalent of the QB's "Yards per attempt" stat. Over the last five years, the only player to rank in the top 10 in YPRR five times is Andre Johnson. The only guy to rank in the top 10 four times is... Percy Harvin, who ranked in the top 10 in each of his four seasons in Minnesota. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall come next with three top-10 finishes over the last 5 years. That's some pretty quality company for Harvin to be keeping strictly as a receiver- even ignoring the fact that he has more rushing yards in his career than any other wide receiver in NFL history. PFF has data going back to 2007, and Harvin and Hakeem Nicks are the only two rookies to ever rank in the top 10 in YPRR- despite Harvin competing for catches with Sidney Rice his rookie year.

TL;DR- Harvin's pretty good as a receiver, too.

 

[stbugs]

Objectively, Harvin has been in the league for five seasons and has not yet had a 1000 yard season.

That to me does not scream top ten-fifteen WR in dynasty

OK, what does a 1000 yard season have to do with Harvin? Depending on your league (I'm in PPR only), he has performed top 10 before.

Quick notes:

2012 - He was hurt in game 9. He played in 8 full games and in those 8, he was the #3 PPR WR behind Marshall and Calvin. He was also on pace for 120 receptions and 1300 yards receiving and 200 yards yards rushing/8 total TDs.

2011 - He finished as the #8 WR in PPR. He played all 16 games and in the second half of 2012 he was on pace to be the #2 WR, only slightly behind Calvin's pace.

So, in the last full 16 games he played, he was 2nd in PPR only to Calvin. Even in his rookie and second season (2009 and 2010), he was #24 and #20 in PPR.

Yes, he was injured in 2012 and missed all of 2013, but when healthy, he finished #24, #20, #8 and #3 (half of 2012). Regardless of missing the 1000 yard plateau, that sure seems like a guy who absolutely should be in the discussion of top 10-15 WRs and a guy who was making his way into the top WRs. If you watched the Super Bowl, you saw how explosive he can be. If he is healthy, he is easily top 15 in dynasty. He just turned 26 and he can produce (better in PPR) top 10 numbers easily when healthy.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Rotoworld blurbs are kind of like horoscopes. If they say something good about YOUR guy, it's gospel. If they say something to the contrary, it's speculation.

Nothing rotoworld posts is gospel. I don't know who told you that...maybe rotoworld?

 

[False Start]

Rotoworld blurbs are kind of like horoscopes. If they say something good about YOUR guy, it's gospel. If they say something to the contrary, it's speculation.

Nothing rotoworld posts is gospel. I don't know who told you that...maybe rotoworld?

Rotoworld is possibly one of the worst sites for hyperbole and rhetoric to help guide their projections. Very little info just re-posts of beat writer tweets, which we all know beat writers are rarely correct too and change their opinion back and forth 10 times by the time training camp starts.

 

[Sabertooth]

Objectively, Harvin has been in the league for five seasons and has not yet had a 1000 yard season.

That to me does not scream top ten-fifteen WR in dynasty

In four seasons, Harvin had 925 yards (in 15 games), 975 yards (in 14 games), 1312 yards, and 778 yards (in 9 games). Basically, he's been on a 1,000+ yard pace in every single season of his entire career. Unless your league doesn't reward rushing yards, which seems like an awfully weird league...

If you meant only as a RECEIVER... well, Harvin's been weighed down by playing in absolutely putrid passing offenses. From 2010-2012, Minnesota's passing offenses averaged fewer than 3,000 yards per season. Harvin's QBs over that time were final-season Brett Favre, Tavaris Jackson, Joe Webb, end-of-the-line Donovan McNabb, Christian Ponder, Joe Webb again, and then Christian Ponder again. Kind of a rough situation to be putting up a lot of 1,000 yard seasons. If you adjust his receiving numbers for his number of opportunities, though, they were elite- not his total numbers, I'm talking about strictly his receiving numbers. PFF keeps a stat called "Yards Per Route Run", which averages how many yards a receiver gets based on the number of routes he runs. The idea is that each route represents an opportunity, and it's supposed to be the WR equivalent of the QB's "Yards per attempt" stat. Over the last five years, the only player to rank in the top 10 in YPRR five times is Andre Johnson. The only guy to rank in the top 10 four times is... Percy Harvin, who ranked in the top 10 in each of his four seasons in Minnesota. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall come next with three top-10 finishes over the last 5 years. That's some pretty quality company for Harvin to be keeping strictly as a receiver- even ignoring the fact that he has more rushing yards in his career than any other wide receiver in NFL history. PFF has data going back to 2007, and Harvin and Hakeem Nicks are the only two rookies to ever rank in the top 10 in YPRR- despite Harvin competing for catches with Sidney Rice his rookie year.

TL;DR- Harvin's pretty good as a receiver, too.

Josh Gordon didn't exactly have Dan Marino throwing to him last year.

 

[Ghost Rider]

As always, the issue with Harvin is his health. I can't imagine most would argue that he is not very talented, but his PPG numbers don't mean a lot if he can't stay healthy. Sure, they are good for you the weeks he actually plays, but most don't want to spend a 3rd round pick or 25+ in an auction for a guy they aren't sure will play more than half of their games. The key to winning in FF is getting players who are lucky enough to stay healthy, and Harvin is simply not dependable in that regard. Plus, being on Seattle won't help him put up monster numbers if he does stay healthy, since the Seahawks don't throw it all over the lot.

 

[Sabertooth]

Yeah the thing is this though. Players are sometimes injury prone until they aren't. Isaac Bruce comes to mind. So does Fred Taylor. Harvin is still in the league and has a clean bill of health. I wouldn't want him as anything more than a WR3 with WR1 upside. Which is exactly what he is on my team.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Josh Gordon didn't exactly have Dan Marino throwing to him last year.

So you're saying Josh Gordon is as good strictly as a receiver as Percy Harvin? I'd agree with that. In fact, the sample size is pretty small so there's a bigger chance his season was a fluke, but I'd be willing to go out on a limb and suggest that Gordon is even a better receiver, (as long as we ignore Harvin's rushing and returns and looking strictly at receiving ability).

My point was never "Harvin is the best receiver in the entire NFL and nobody has ever been as successful as he was with bad quarterbacks". My point was that Harvin is very, very good strictly as a receiver, and is even wildly underrated in that regard because he played for a team that never passed the ball (and sucked when they did). Gordon's QB play may have been bad last year, but Cleveland still led the league in passing attempts. The 2013 Browns threw 681 passes and had 4040 passing yards. The 2012 Vikings threw 483 passes for 2751 yards.

To put Percy Harvin into perspective... the 2012 Arizona Cardinals threw 608 passes for 3005 yards, and Larry Fitzgerald didn't even top 800 receiving yards. Larry Fitzgerald, in my opinion, is a first-ballot HoF receiver. It's really, really hard to go for 1,000 receiving yards on a team that's only throwing for 3,000 total. If the criticism of him is that he's not as good of a receiver as Larry Fitzgerald or Josh Gordon, then I think that's a very fair criticism. If the criticism is that he's a mediocre receiver, I think that's wildly unfair. Harvin is a very good receiver who put up surprisingly strong receiving numbers in an awful situation, and then supplemented them with historically great rushing and returning numbers, to boot.

Or if you'd rather hear from "scouts" instead of just looking at box scores... in his first four years in the league, PFF graded Harvin as 11th, 4th, 8th, and 6th... strictly as a receiver. Not counting his contributions as a runner or a returner, that's his grade strictly on plays where he went out into a pass pattern and was eligible to be thrown the ball. Whether he's had 1000 yards receiving or not, Percy Harvin is a great receiver.

 

[VaTerp]

I've loved Harvin's talent since his HS days. I targeted him 2 years ago and he was great in PPR until injuries derailed his season. Last year was obviously a wash from a FF standpoint but I think he sets up very nicely for this year. His skill set is a perfect fit for Seattle's offense and he presents many unique options to get the ball in his hands.

He is an explosive playmaker, playing on a great team, and with a QB who should continuing to develop and get better.There is enough legitimate concern to push his ADP or auction price down but the upside is tremendous. He is a priority target of mine this year.

 

[Grahamburn]

Objectively, Harvin has been in the league for five seasons and has not yet had a 1000 yard season.

That to me does not scream top ten-fifteen WR in dynasty

In four seasons, Harvin had 925 yards (in 15 games), 975 yards (in 14 games), 1312 yards, and 778 yards (in 9 games). Basically, he's been on a 1,000+ yard pace in every single season of his entire career. Unless your league doesn't reward rushing yards, which seems like an awfully weird league...

If you meant only as a RECEIVER... well, Harvin's been weighed down by playing in absolutely putrid passing offenses. From 2010-2012, Minnesota's passing offenses averaged fewer than 3,000 yards per season. Harvin's QBs over that time were final-season Brett Favre, Tavaris Jackson, Joe Webb, end-of-the-line Donovan McNabb, Christian Ponder, Joe Webb again, and then Christian Ponder again. Kind of a rough situation to be putting up a lot of 1,000 yard seasons. If you adjust his receiving numbers for his number of opportunities, though, they were elite- not his total numbers, I'm talking about strictly his receiving numbers. PFF keeps a stat called "Yards Per Route Run", which averages how many yards a receiver gets based on the number of routes he runs. The idea is that each route represents an opportunity, and it's supposed to be the WR equivalent of the QB's "Yards per attempt" stat. Over the last five years, the only player to rank in the top 10 in YPRR five times is Andre Johnson. The only guy to rank in the top 10 four times is... Percy Harvin, who ranked in the top 10 in each of his four seasons in Minnesota. Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall come next with three top-10 finishes over the last 5 years. That's some pretty quality company for Harvin to be keeping strictly as a receiver- even ignoring the fact that he has more rushing yards in his career than any other wide receiver in NFL history. PFF has data going back to 2007, and Harvin and Hakeem Nicks are the only two rookies to ever rank in the top 10 in YPRR- despite Harvin competing for catches with Sidney Rice his rookie year.

TL;DR- Harvin's pretty good as a receiver, too.

You've been a great poster here for a long time, obviously, and I know you've been high on Harvin for as long as he's been in the NFL, but at some point you have to be objective about who he is. He has a lot more value to his NFL team than he does to his fantasy owners.

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team. Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster. Once you factor in Percy's propensity to miss games the appeal of his athleticism and potential starts to wear off. I just have trouble envisioning a logical scenario in Seattle where Harvin becomes the rushing/receiving monster fantasy owners hope for.

 

[Tau837]

Seattle is not going to become a prolific passing team.

They already are. I posted this several months ago:

I think as Wilson and the young receivers he has continue to develop, they will be a pretty potent offense who can score points in bunches when they have to.

With regard to the bolded, Seattle's offense is already there.

Everyone knows they have a good running game. And it's a deep running game, with Turbin and Michael behind Lynch, and with Wilson being a good running QB.

So most people think the offense is "average" or "not scary" because they think the Seattle passing game isn't as good as its running game. That is incorrect. Consider where Seattle ranked in 2013 in various passing efficiency metrics:

- #5 in passer rating

- #9 in completion percentage

- #2 in TD percentage

- #10 in interception percentage

- #3 in yards per completion (YPC)

- #2 in yards per pass attempt (YPA)

- #3 in adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A)

- #5 in net yards per pass attempt (NY/A)

- #5 in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A)

The Seahawks were also tied for #1 with 5 game winning drives and tied for #2 with 4 4th quarter comebacks. Those are strong indicators about a quality passing game.

Also, the Seahawks were #5 in drive scoring percentage and had the 6th fewest percentage of drives end in a turnover. Again, those metrics suggest a quality passing game.

Pro Football Focus rated Seattle's passing game as the 6th best in the NFL this season. They rated Wilson as the #5 QB in their version of passer rating.

Advanced NFL Stats rated Seattle's passing game at #4 in Expected Points Added per Pass (EPA/P).

Football Outsiders ranks Seattle's passing offense as the 8th best in the NFL this season.

Now consider that they accomplished these things with major injuries throughout their offensive line for most of the season and without #1 WR Harvin and mostly without #2 WR Rice. And also while facing a very difficult schedule.

And, like the running game, their passing game is deep. Kearse was their #5 WR coming into the season. I think Luke Willson is going to be very good, and he didn't play much this season.

Altogether, the Seahawks passing game is very underrated.

As for the offense overall, look at its track record since halfway through Wilson's rookie season. In their past 30 games (regular season and postseason), the Seahawks have averaged 28.5 ppg and have been held below 20 points just 4 times.

Yes, the offense should scare opponents.

Harvin isn't going to receive a ton of carries with Lynch and Michael on the roster.

I think Michael was only active for a few games last season. He doesn't contribute on special teams, so it's a tough decision for Seattle to keep him active if both Lynch and Turbin are healthy. Perhaps even tougher if Harvin is healthy and will contribute a few carries per game. Will that change this season?

Setting that aside, what is a "ton of carries"? If he gets 3 carries per game, he will be adding 15-20 rushing yards per game to his receiving (and returning) points. That is non-trivial.

 

[Grahamburn]

Come on JWB, you're better than that. Being an efficient passing team and being a prolific passing team are not mutually exclusive. Wilson has barely eclipsed 3,000 yards in the last two seasons. A figure SSOG just used to then say this "It's really, really hard to go for 1,000 receiving yards on a team that's only throwing for 3,000 total."

3 carries per game would give Harvin 48 for the season, which would be just 4 fewer than his career high in Minnesota. A year where Harvin managed to play 16 games and was used much more as a RB because of an injury to Adrian Peterson. If you expect Lynch and Michael (Turbin isn't currently on Seattle's roster) to get hurt while Harvin doesn't then he may approach those numbers. However, he only had 15, 18, and 22 attempts in his other 3 seasons as a Viking.