Has LT peaked and heading on the downside? (1 Viewer)

[Da Guru]

Even before he was hurt yesterday LT has not seemed quite himself this season.

Although he still had a great year he did not seem to be able to do what he has done in the past,,,every yard this season seemed much tougher than before. Also LT took more big hits this year than I remember in the past.

LT has been lucky injury wise for his career but he had close to another 400 touch season again this year.

Is the wear and tear finally catching up to him?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Even before he was hurt yesterday LT has not seemed quite himself this season.

I personally thought LT played exactly the same in 2007 as he did in 2006. The difference was the play of the OL.He will slow down at some point, obviously, and next year may be when it happens. But I wouldn't base that on any particular evidence from 2007.

 

[beto]

It catches up to everyone. Since he'll never have another year like 2006, I'll say yes. He's not toast, but he has nowhere to go but down.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yes.

See: Shaun Alexander

 

[Gr00vus]

Even before he was hurt yesterday LT has not seemed quite himself this season.

I personally thought LT played exactly the same in 2007 as he did in 2006. The difference was the play of the OL.He will slow down at some point, obviously, and next year may be when it happens. But I wouldn't base that on any particular evidence from 2007.

The play calling was different this year as well, along with some of the formations. They tended to run on 1st down regardless of what the defense was doing, which often enough was putting 8 or 9 guys in the box. He also sat out large portions of games which were blow outs - Marty tended to leave Tomlinson in a bit longer in those situations.That said there were a few occasions where it seemed he wasn't able to turn the corner outside the way he has in the past and also a few occasions where guys would trip him up from behind whereas in years past he'd have accelerated beyond them. I don't know if that was situational or the beginning of a long term trend.

 

[softball]

Yes.See: Shaun Alexander

Dude, that's harsh.I wrote on another thread yesterday that I was contemplating this while picking up some donuts, because I think about this ALL the time.I may be a Steven Jackson fan come August/Spetember 2008.

 

[gianmarco]

Yes.See: Shaun Alexander

Dude, that's harsh.I wrote on another thread yesterday that I was contemplating this while picking up some donuts, because I think about this ALL the time.I may be a Steven Jackson fan come August/Spetember 2008.

ADP down?

 

[hauser42]

He will never come close to last year but he will be fine. Now there offense has more weapons with Chambers to go with Gates and V-Jack. They will not have to run as much and he will have more room with less people in the bos. Still grab him #1 next year.

 

[Da Guru]

Yes.See: Shaun Alexander

I don`t think it will be that severe, but I expect a decline in production.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yes.

See: Shaun Alexander

I don`t think it will be that severe, but I expect a decline in production.

A man's body can only take so much beating and LT has been abused the last seven years.

 

[Tanner9919]

Even before he was hurt yesterday LT has not seemed quite himself this season.Although he still had a great year he did not seem to be able to do what he has done in the past,,,every yard this season seemed much tougher than before. Also LT took more big hits this year than I remember in the past.LT has been lucky injury wise for his career but he had close to another 400 touch season again this year. Is the wear and tear finally catching up to him?

just my two cents, I think he's definitely wearing down..he DID win the rushing title, but that might've been his swan song..

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

I was thinking about this for next year in our re-draft league. I'm not sure who i would take at number 1 if i got it right now. In past years there was never any question.

I would even consider taking Brady next year at number 1 if If the patriots lose a couple of veterans on defense and don't fill the holes and also resign Moss. with an aging d and the offense back in place i would think brady would be a sure thing for 40+ td's next year.

 

[Da Guru]

Even before he was hurt yesterday LT has not seemed quite himself this season.

I personally thought LT played exactly the same in 2007 as he did in 2006. The difference was the play of the OL.He will slow down at some point, obviously, and next year may be when it happens. But I wouldn't base that on any particular evidence from 2007.

Will LT still be the #1RB off the board?

 

[dollarbill13]

Out of his 7 year career, LT's 2007 YPC ranks 3rd best behind 2003 & 2006. 4.7 YPC is still excellent for an every down RB who gets over 300 carries.

 

[gman8343]

Yes.

See: Shaun Alexander

I don`t think it will be that severe, but I expect a decline in production.

A man's body can only take so much beating and LT has been abused the last seven years.

Actually, I think the opposite is true in that LT has taken less of a beating than many other RBs in his career. He isn't the type of guy who runs people over and craves physical contact like LJ or Marion Barber, and I think that is going to prolong his career a couple of years. Father time will catch up with him, but I don't think he's been abused - when I watch him he rarely takes a direct hit. He could have two more years of top notch production.

 

[awesomeness]

His peak was in 06. However, his downside is still gonna be top 5 FF RB for the forseeable future.

 

[buster c]

interesting, almost sacreligious topic.

to be honest, when he was on the sidelines yesterday and with the burst Turner was displaying, I was thinking that SD was better off. at least for 1 game.

 

[gianmarco]

interesting, almost sacreligious topic. to be honest, when he was on the sidelines yesterday and with the burst Turner was displaying, I was thinking that SD was better off. at least for 1 game.

Where was the burst some people are talking about? I sure didn't see it. He looked "ok". He didn't look bad, but he didn't look impressive. There were a couple of runs that I think LT would have gotten much more than Turner ended up getting.

 

[slayer666]

Is the wear and tear finally catching up to him?

Without question, LT is in the trailing edge of his prime.

 

[DWidmar]

If you think he is on the downside, then would you trade for him in a Dynasty format and if so, what would you give up at this point. It is hard because he is LT, but you expect a decline as all RB's do, yet he hasn't really showed any signs of slowing down yet.

 

[menobrown]

He is still likely the best overall RB in the game but I do think he is on the downward slope. I believe he's had more touches the first 7 years of his career than any RB in history and he'll be 29 by the start of next season. I would not be surprised if he only had 1-2 years left of elite status as an NFL RB and by elite I mean considered in the discussion for the best. He should still be the first or second RB chosen in most fantasy drafts next year but it could be the last year we see of that as well.

I don't think Norv got enough credit for helping LT this year. If there is one thing Norv knows it's how to get production from his RB. In fact, I don't think their is anyone better at knowing how to feature a RB in the NFL. LT logged 406 touches last regular season and to me looked a little less explosive this year but he still had one of his YPC years and I give Norv some credit for that.

 

[BigJim®]

Yes.See: Shaun Alexander

Everyone knew SA would mail it in after he got paid. I think LT has several very good years left. Perhaps now is a good time to target him.

 

[Ghost Rider]

To be fair, Tomlinson did lead the NFL in rushing this past season.

But yeah, I suspect he will slowly start to trail off a tad in the next year or two. I do not think his drop will be as quick and far as Shaun Alexander's was, but like has been said, the body can only take so much punishment, and Tomlinson is reaching that age.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

Even before he was hurt yesterday LT has not seemed quite himself this season.Although he still had a great year he did not seem to be able to do what he has done in the past,,,every yard this season seemed much tougher than before. Also LT took more big hits this year than I remember in the past.LT has been lucky injury wise for his career but he had close to another 400 touch season again this year. Is the wear and tear finally catching up to him?

just my two cents, I think he's definitely wearing down..he DID win the rushing title, but that might've been his swan song..

Seriously? His swan song?

 

[FantasyTrader]

If you think he is on the downside, then would you trade for him in a Dynasty format and if so, what would you give up at this point. It is hard because he is LT, but you expect a decline as all RB's do, yet he hasn't really showed any signs of slowing down yet.

For any of the people saying we may begin to see a gradual decline, history would disagree. In general, stud RB's usually don't just fade away like WR's and QB's. It's a sudden, violent fall. On Monday they are a God and on Tuesday you couldn't trade them for a 2nd round pick. At this point I would trade L.T. but not for peanuts. A first rounder and a YOUNG productive player (or one with crazy upside) sounds about right. A first rounder and MJD, Calvin Johnson or Michael Bush sounds right. If you can't get close to that you ride him until the wheels fall off.It'd be a gamble for the L.T. owner. He may regret it in '08 and maybe even '09 but top 3 production the next two years is LaDanian's best-case scenario.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think he is peaking....yes but not on his down side. He'll play at this level for a few more years then slide down.

He's fine, draft him as your No. 1 RB next year. Worry about guys like Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, S. Alexander and Larry Johnson before you worry about Lt2.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yes.

See: Shaun Alexander

I don`t think it will be that severe, but I expect a decline in production.

A man's body can only take so much beating and LT has been abused the last seven years.

Actually, I think the opposite is true in that LT has taken less of a beating than many other RBs in his career. He isn't the type of guy who runs people over and craves physical contact like LJ or Marion Barber, and I think that is going to prolong his career a couple of years. Father time will catch up with him, but I don't think he's been abused - when I watch him he rarely takes a direct hit. He could have two more years of top notch production.

Add up the carries and receptions he's had over the last seven years. 375+ combined for almost all of them.I don't care what your style is. 375 car crashes a year is going to slow you down.

(P.S. The Shaun Alexander comparison was an exaggeration.)

 

[David Yudkin]

Let me put it this way . . . I doubt he will start improving and he will start declining some over the next year or two. That being said, how many other backs would you rather have than LT? Not many (unless he gets hurt for an extended stretch).