Has the luck factor turned you off to FF (1 Viewer)

[MeatMops]

Going to both agree and disagree with comments about Total Points leagues taking the luck out of the game.

I'm a proponent of total points for the season being a big factor, and in leagues I run we always reward the total points champion with as much money as the playoff champion.

No doubt that the total points championship is less based on luck than winning the "playoffs" championship, but there is still a lot of luck involved in the total points race.

Yeah, if you won your league by 368 points like somewhere here did then maybe you could argue luck wasn't that big a deal, but I've been involved in plenty of leagues where the total points title came down to only a handful of points after 16 games. Your guy getting tackled at the 1 yard line instead of scoring one time (during the course of an entire season) can change you from a loser to a winner. One time making the wrong decision in a close call of who to start - no doubt that a lot luck is still involved. Make it a 30 point difference and you're still talking about only a handul of plays over the course of season making the difference between 1st and 2nd place in the total points race.

Doesn't change the fact that FF is a great game.

 

[Mr. Pink]

I'm that guy who lost to MJD and I had LT2 to boot. What I can say for certain, and this is the second year in a row I have lost in the championship, is that I have yet to meet an owner who didn't deserve to win a championship. The suggestion of luck sort of flies in the face of the point I'm making. If the other guy is lucky, or you are unlucky, that suggests to me the winner didn't deserve his title....I don't agree.

A champion wins because he put the right players in at the moment it counted most. Whether he drafted, claimed or traded for his players, the fact remains he put his team in position to win on that day.

I lost a championship (3 player keeper) with a roster of Romo, LT2, Gore, TO, Driver, Shockey, Kaeding and Atlanta. Not bad on any given Sunday, just not good enough to win this Sunday. The reason? My opponent put out a better team....period.

 

[massraider]

It takes skill to go to the playoffs each year, luck to win the championships.Go Gators.

2nd post of the thread, and no reason to go further.

 

[fsufan]

Excuses and people whining about luck/games/results is a way bigger turn off then anything else.Its life, deal with it. It even reflects the results of the NFL.

then why open this thread

 

[Sabertooth]

I agree, it's a game people...there is 1 winner and 11 losers. It's frustrating why do you not consider it luck when you win, but consider it just bad luck when you lose?

Get over yourself.

 

[Jagerbomber]

I agree, it's a game people...there is 1 winner and 11 losers. It's frustrating why do you not consider it luck when you win, but consider it just bad luck when you lose? Get over yourself.

Seriously...that's a whole bunch of whining. The last three years I've had a top 2 regular-season team which inevitably has flopped and lost in the first-round of the playoffs. It happens...you get over it.

 

[Charley]

It takes skill to go to the playoffs each year, luck to win the championships.Go Gators.

2nd post of the thread, and no reason to go further.

I agree. Excellent drafting and managing a team well through the season (WW pickups, trades, lineups, etc.) takes skill, and the most-skilled owners will consistently make the playoffs much more often than less-skilled owners in any league.During a season, H2H can be frustrating if you consistently score well but keep losing to teams that have one of the highest scores each week. This can be avoided for the most part if you schedule double-headers each week. With this format, all of the teams that score well will bubble up to the top by the end of the regular season. I personally like this option rather than the total points format.During the playoffs, teams that finished best can be given a "home field advantage" of 3-7 pts. However, this won't avoid the crapshoot nature of individual playoff games where luck plays a big factor.I think a key factor relates to how much money you have riding on the outcome of the playoffs. If FF is a hobby and no real money is involved, disappointment over the "luck factor" should be minor, IMO. In fact, I think it's great when a real underdog fights their way through the playoffs and wins the championship -- keeps the interest up for all teams through the season. For this reason, I favor playoffs with all teams involved (or 8 of 12) in low money leagues, and a trophy to the winner for bragging rights.If you've got real money riding on the outcome, then it's understandable to be bummed out when an inferior team takes the championship (and the money) away from you. But luck is inherent in any form of gambling which big money leagues are. The only recourse to bad luck is to diversify -- play in many leagues each year -- if you're good, luck will balance out and you'll be a net winner overall. If you're average (compared to the competition in your leagues), then you'll consistently break-even or lose money on average because of the fixed costs of operating the leagues.

 

[BassNBrew]

Eliminate the "luck".Compete in auction formats only.

So the guy who spent $1 on Colston didn't get lucky? The guy who spent $60 on Shaun Alexander didn't get unlucky?

Alexander was a fairly easy bust candidate to predict....a) Number of carries from the previous season.b) Loss of stud lineman.c) Stevens injury.d) Super Bowl loser jinx.e) Chunky soup or Madden jinx...forget which.f) Lack of receptions.g) High dependency on TDs.h) Regression to the mean.I owned him in zero leagues and had the opportunity to draft him in several.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I look at FF as gambling.

Not me - I look at it as fun.

You don't have fun gambling? That's all gambling is, is paying for entertainment. Only the sorriest of people walks up to a roulette wheel and looks at it as an "investment". Everyone else knows they're going to have fun at the hands of the fates.

I get the sense that some of the frustration with the "luck" factor comes from the amount of money on the line. I've also seen how the amount of fun many have decreases as the amount of money invested increases (that's not just in FF either). No way of knowing for sure, of course, but I'd guess that this thread would be about 1/3 as long if we all played in free leagues.

 

[my man otis]

I look at FF as gambling.

Not me - I look at it as fun.

You don't have fun gambling? That's all gambling is, is paying for entertainment. Only the sorriest of people walks up to a roulette wheel and looks at it as an "investment". Everyone else knows they're going to have fun at the hands of the fates.

I get the sense that some of the frustration with the "luck" factor comes from the amount of money on the line. I've also seen how the amount of fun many have decreases as the amount of money invested increases (that's not just in FF either). No way of knowing for sure, of course, but I'd guess that this thread would be about 1/3 as long if we all played in free leagues.

If we all played in free leagues the entire FF industry (including this website & MB) wouldn't exist as it is currently.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I look at FF as gambling.

Not me - I look at it as fun.

You don't have fun gambling? That's all gambling is, is paying for entertainment. Only the sorriest of people walks up to a roulette wheel and looks at it as an "investment". Everyone else knows they're going to have fun at the hands of the fates.

I get the sense that some of the frustration with the "luck" factor comes from the amount of money on the line. I've also seen how the amount of fun many have decreases as the amount of money invested increases (that's not just in FF either). No way of knowing for sure, of course, but I'd guess that this thread would be about 1/3 as long if we all played in free leagues.

If we all played in free leagues the entire FF industry (including this website & MB) wouldn't exist as it is currently.

touche, mmo I do maintain, though, that the fact that money is at risk increases how much someone can be bothered by the luck factor. I think many people would be much less inclined to b*tch about it were that not the case.

 

[my man otis]

I look at FF as gambling.

Not me - I look at it as fun.

You don't have fun gambling? That's all gambling is, is paying for entertainment. Only the sorriest of people walks up to a roulette wheel and looks at it as an "investment". Everyone else knows they're going to have fun at the hands of the fates.

I get the sense that some of the frustration with the "luck" factor comes from the amount of money on the line. I've also seen how the amount of fun many have decreases as the amount of money invested increases (that's not just in FF either). No way of knowing for sure, of course, but I'd guess that this thread would be about 1/3 as long if we all played in free leagues.

If we all played in free leagues the entire FF industry (including this website & MB) wouldn't exist as it is currently.

touche, mmo I do maintain, though, that the fact that money is at risk increases how much someone can be bothered by the luck factor. I think many people would be much less inclined to b*tch about it were that not the case.

agreed, typical "if i win it's because of something I did but if I lose it's luck/someone else's fault" mantra.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

A total points league is the only way to go. Who scores the most total points from week 1 to week 16. You can play a weekly matchup and a "head to head playoffs", but, the total points winner should recieve the League Title Belt and the lion's share of the prize pool. This elimates all of the luck involved with your head to head matchups.

Exactly right. The team that is best for all 16 (or 17) weeks wins.If that's "too boring" then stick to H-T-H. But don't cry and complain that luck is such a big factor.

are there teams that are out of it about the half way point in total points leagues?

Usually it's only 1-2 teams that are out of it. Which is the same or less than H-T-H at that point.I've been 10th (last) after Week 6 and come all the way back to win 1st.It's a myth that most teams are out of it too early in Total Points.Think of it this way - in H-T-H, two weeks determine the winner. In Total Points, 17 weeks determine the winner. When someone wins our Total Points league, there is no talk of someone just geting lucky for a week because this person had to have the best team in the long haul.

 

[Otis]

Luck?

I'm in 5 leagues. I won championships in 3. It's not luck.

 

[PsychoMan]

Award $$$ in two ways: regular season point totals, and playoffs. I think it's a solid combination of rewarding skill, but allowing the luck factor (playoffs) to still be a part of the game.

Next season, I plan on awarding 50% of the winnings to the top 3 point totals in the regular season (weeks 1-13), and the remaining 50% to the top 3 teams in a 3 week playoff. This also allows for the best team to still be eligible to end up with 75-80% of the winnings (If they score the most points, and continue to thrive through the playoffs).

 

[Angry Beavers]

This was just posted above me but rather than rehash all the luck arguments: why not split the pot? A league I have been in for 10 years awards $ as follows: 50% - total points: 60% ( or 30% of the total); 30% and 10%. The other half to the Superbowl with a 75/25 split. This way, even if your teams sucks at total points you have a reason to keep playing and managing your team, yet at the same time the guys who have had the most consistent season and have scored well on a weekly basis are also rewarded. Only once has the total points champ (which runs all 17 weeks) also been the Superbowl winner, and roughly 5 or 6 times the total points winner has lost in the Superbowl to a person who put his team together well for a late season run after being hurt by injuries etc.

 

[Stingdiddy]

A total points league is the only way to go. Who scores the most total points from week 1 to week 16. You can play a weekly matchup and a "head to head playoffs", but, the total points winner should recieve the League Title Belt and the lion's share of the prize pool. This elimates all of the luck involved with your head to head matchups.

Exactly right. The team that is best for all 16 (or 17) weeks wins.If that's "too boring" then stick to H-T-H. But don't cry and complain that luck is such a big factor.

are there teams that are out of it about the half way point in total points leagues?

Usually it's only 1-2 teams that are out of it. Which is the same or less than H-T-H at that point.I've been 10th (last) after Week 6 and come all the way back to win 1st.It's a myth that most teams are out of it too early in Total Points.Think of it this way - in H-T-H, two weeks determine the winner. In Total Points, 17 weeks determine the winner. When someone wins our Total Points league, there is no talk of someone just geting lucky for a week because this person had to have the best team in the long haul.

It's nice to see someone else seeing the value of a total points league. In my league this year, 7 of the 12 teams were in it going into week 12-13. Going into the final week, 4 teams were well within the race.Arguing against a points league is like arguing against decimal scoring. It's a fear of the unknown. In both cases, once you try it, you know there's really no other way to go.

 

[pfalvey]

The league I'm in is straight h2h, but was total points up until 3 years ago. Both have pro's and cons. H2H is more competitive and fun with the individual matchups each week, but noone can deny the luck factor is greater when the 7-7, low-scoring team ends up winning the title. Total points are still fun and the luck factor is significantly minimized (not eliminated), but it's not quite as fun as H2H. I've been in this league for 9 years and I've won this league 2x with total points and I won this year in H2H (finished as highest-scoring team as well).

The system I would really like to try is the power rankings system to determine the champion. The power rankings consist of a combo of H2H W/L record, total points and W/L record against the weekly scoring average. There maybe other variables, I've never used this but have seen this system mentioned elsewhere in FF forums. Power rankings would still retain the competitive advantages of H2H, but the luck/timing factor would largely be balanced out by the total points and W/L against avg weekly score components.

 

[walkwithme]

Guys FF is lucky sometimes and sometimes skill is involved in evaluating talent. Some of us are lucky enough to draft behind someone who clearly reached for a draft pick and left you with a clear value pick. Just like real football the regular season team with the best record or stats doesn't always bring him the title (See Manning and the Colts). I play in a total points league for money and the race heats up as the season goes along but there is a lot of players in the running.

 

[fsufan]

Award $$$ in two ways: regular season point totals, and playoffs. I think it's a solid combination of rewarding skill, but allowing the luck factor (playoffs) to still be a part of the game. Next season, I plan on awarding 50% of the winnings to the top 3 point totals in the regular season (weeks 1-13), and the remaining 50% to the top 3 teams in a 3 week playoff. This also allows for the best team to still be eligible to end up with 75-80% of the winnings (If they score the most points, and continue to thrive through the playoffs).

My league rewards $200 to the division winners (2) and $50 to the regular season champ (best record). The division winners are also guaranteed 3rd or 4th place money, $50. So the division winners will win $300 or $250. The league fee is $150. So if you win your division and/or the regular season title you will make $.

 

[steviey]

Eliminate the "luck".Compete in auction formats only.

So the guy who spent $1 on Colston didn't get lucky? The guy who spent $60 on Shaun Alexander didn't get unlucky?

Alexander was a fairly easy bust candidate to predict....a) Number of carries from the previous season.b) Loss of stud lineman.c) Stevens injury.d) Super Bowl loser jinx.e) Chunky soup or Madden jinx...forget which.f) Lack of receptions.g) High dependency on TDs.h) Regression to the mean.I owned him in zero leagues and had the opportunity to draft him in several.

He may have been a bust but he scored twice as many points as LT in our championship game. SA's best week of the year comes the same week as LT's worst week in 11 weeks. And in the end all of LT's accomplishments this year were wiped out and SA came through for his owner the only week it really mattered. That's effed up

 

[videoguy505]

I won 3 out of 5 sit-n-go poker tournaments. There's no luck involved.

( )

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Luck?I'm in 5 leagues. I won championships in 3. It's not luck.

You are one lucky dude

 

[ffgiant]

Luck?I'm in 5 leagues. I won championships in 3. It's not luck.

I certainly can beat that, I played in 3 leagues this year. 2 Dynasty and 1 redraft. I won 2 chamiptionships and one runner-up Fantasy football is gambling, gambling attract people because it makes most people think they have an advantage. No matter how knowlegable people think they are, FF is 90% of luck, get over it!

 

[Warpig]

In my 12 team auction redraft league, there is one of those guys that just has that insanely scary good luck. He's one of those guys that wins at everything he does. He goes to the casino's and wins. He plays in poker tournies and wins. It's that disgusting dumb luck because the guy has no idea what he's doing and always looks surprised when he wins. The guy has won our league championship 3 of the last 5 years. And he was actually making fun of me the other day because I research football all season long and all he does is draft from a fantasy mag (no..not FBG) every year. It's just disgusting. I've thought about not playing anymore because if it weren't for bad luck...I'd have no luck at all. I just like throwing away money.

This lucky ******* won AGAIN! Makes me ill. He doesn't even like football! He's a computer geek that spends all his time watching the Star Wars Trilogies.

 

[WisWolvrns]

I've always been ok with the luck/skill situation in FF. You win some, you lose some, but believed keeping active in your league and combing the waiver wire/matchups each week can have you make your own luck per se.

The incident which got me going was the Minn/Det... Taylor is out... Fason "gets his first start" news... then Pinner "starts!" and runs 100+ yrds and 3 Tds?! That one hits more closer to home to me than luck. For all the skill / research promoters, how can one explain getting the shaft in that situation? Albeit those situations aren't too often, but if you also include the questionable injury reports... what good can your research be if you aren't receiving reliable intel?

Now that is something which gets me thinking how worth it can it be...

 

[WisWolvrns]

In my 12 team auction redraft league, there is one of those guys that just has that insanely scary good luck. He's one of those guys that wins at everything he does. He goes to the casino's and wins. He plays in poker tournies and wins. It's that disgusting dumb luck because the guy has no idea what he's doing and always looks surprised when he wins. The guy has won our league championship 3 of the last 5 years. And he was actually making fun of me the other day because I research football all season long and all he does is draft from a fantasy mag (no..not FBG) every year. It's just disgusting. I've thought about not playing anymore because if it weren't for bad luck...I'd have no luck at all. I just like throwing away money.

This lucky ******* won AGAIN! Makes me ill. He doesn't even like football! He's a computer geek that spends all his time watching the Star Wars Trilogies.

When is your 2007 draft next year? And could you post this guy's team after he drafts it?

 

[Warpig]

In my 12 team auction redraft league, there is one of those guys that just has that insanely scary good luck. He's one of those guys that wins at everything he does. He goes to the casino's and wins. He plays in poker tournies and wins. It's that disgusting dumb luck because the guy has no idea what he's doing and always looks surprised when he wins. The guy has won our league championship 3 of the last 5 years. And he was actually making fun of me the other day because I research football all season long and all he does is draft from a fantasy mag (no..not FBG) every year. It's just disgusting. I've thought about not playing anymore because if it weren't for bad luck...I'd have no luck at all. I just like throwing away money.

This lucky ******* won AGAIN! Makes me ill. He doesn't even like football! He's a computer geek that spends all his time watching the Star Wars Trilogies.

When is your 2007 draft next year? And could you post this guy's team after he drafts it?

We usually draft late in August. But I would gladly post it here if I can remember.

 

[PsychoMan]

I've always been ok with the luck/skill situation in FF. You win some, you lose some, but believed keeping active in your league and combing the waiver wire/matchups each week can have you make your own luck per se.The incident which got me going was the Minn/Det... Taylor is out... Fason "gets his first start" news... then Pinner "starts!" and runs 100+ yrds and 3 Tds?! That one hits more closer to home to me than luck. For all the skill / research promoters, how can one explain getting the shaft in that situation? Albeit those situations aren't too often, but if you also include the questionable injury reports... what good can your research be if you aren't receiving reliable intel?Now that is something which gets me thinking how worth it can it be...

That situation robbed me of my championship. I went on to score the most pts in the next two weeks. Unbelievable.

 

[mofunk]

Pretty much every year I have the best team going into the season. I normally win my division and either lead the league in scoring or close to it, and for that matter normally lead the league in bench scoring as well. I do tons of research off season, research during the season, watch tons of games on Sunday's and yet for whatever reason, I have one average game in the playoffs and my opponent has one above average game and I lose in the playoffs. I have lost some of those games by 1-3 points and even lost a fantasy bowl by 3 points. This year I was 11-2 regular season, led the league in scoring, made it to the fantasy bowl and scored WAY below my average, my opponent scored a little more then his average and beat me. So once again, I lose the league. This bad luck haunts me.

In my other league, I went on a mid season romp to win my division and the #1 seed. Going into the fantasy bowl, I had a hunch that my D was going to suck, so I pick up another. I then get side tracked at work and forget to plug them in my lineup. I lost. Had I played the new defense I would have one. This one was coaching error on my part.

Trust me, I probably put more time into FF then anyone in my league. I seem to always have one of the best teams if not THE best team, and I always seem to come up a bit short. I still play though. I guess I like the abuse.

 

[JoePa]

My league is H2H during the regular season and switches to total points during the 4-week post-season. The H2H play keeps things interesting during the season for the lesser owners and the total points post-season generally does a good job of ensuring that one of the top teams wins it all. We also award a regular season point total trophy that includes almost as much $ as the post-season championship.

 

[scott72]

Luck?I'm in 5 leagues. I won championships in 3. It's not luck.

Why didn't you win all five?? Bad luck in the other two??

 

[Unlucky]

Only read page 1. Some things to consider:

1. One, two, 10, or 20 leagues is a very small sample size. Consider playing 25 hands of hold 'em where you are 60% favorite after the flop, push all in, and get called. You'll lose often, but come out a winner in the long run. FF isn't much different, except that I think the % you are favored by is less than 60%.

2. There is more skill in FF than poker if you equate one FF season to one hand of poker. (I make this comparison because money is won or lost in one season of FF and one hand of poker) At some point, the skill is even - maybe 200 to 500 hands? Even pro poker players have losing sessions.

3. There is still far more skill in FF than luck. That skill may be easily obtained by downloading the draft dominator, but it's skill nonetheless. Put me up against 11 owners that draft completely randomly, submit their lineup randomly, and make waiver moves randomly, and I'll win 100% of the time. Other people have a lot of skill in FF, and that skill comes cheap. That doesn't mean it's luck.

4. There are 12 teams in most leagues. 1 team wins the championship. If you win the championship more than once in 12 years, you are beating the odds. If you consistently win more championships at a greater rate than the odds, you are a SKILLED FF player.

I consistently win money at FF. Several of the owners in my Phenoms leagues that play in a lot of leagues for a lot of money consistently come out on top. They aren't luckier than everyone else. They win in the long run because there is considerable skill to FF. If you're not winning money consistently, perhaps your skill level isn't up to par?

 

[Sweetness_34]

I agree with the general sentiment. I just lost my championship game despite having LT, TO, Kellen Winslow etc on my team because of 3 players that were not even drafted in our league: Colston, Ron Dayne and Maurice Jones Drew

But then, I look back to when I won the championship picking up scrubs like Kerry Collins, Drew Bennett etc 2 years back when I won the championship that I had no business winning (my WRs were Koren Robinson, Santana Moss etc)

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I haven't read the whole thread, but here's my general philosophy:

"Skill gets you in a position where luck in the postseason can win you a championship."

I played in a number of redraft leagues this year, and I did quite well. I'd be foolish, however, to assume it was 100% skill, but it wasn't 100% luck either. Skill dominates at the draft and in whom to pick up off the waiver wire, but luck factors into week by week scoring and when you happen to play another player.

 

[Todem]

It takes skill to go to the playoffs each year, luck to win the championships.Go Gators.

2nd post of the thread, and no reason to go further.

That is the way I feel as well. I have been playing this game since 1990. And I always have one clear goal. Get into the playoffs and let the chips fall. You can only control what lineup you assemble and can't control if LT2 does not score a TD in the most important week of the season or if Drew Brees throws for 145 and 1 td when he has been killing it most of the year, and on and on and on.If you make it to the championship that is a great accomplishment in itself. As long as your in the money what more can you ask for?One thing I can say is the skilled players over time are in the playoff's for more often than the noobs or a guy who get's "lucky one year".It takes skill to field a squad year after year in the playoffs, especially in a dynasty league (where the really skilled owners choose to battle for the most part).This is my last year in redrafts. I have only dynasty leagues left in my future where some of the noob luck factor goes away. And the skill of drafting, waiver wire pick ups and great trading skills overmatch the luck factor more often than not.

 

[Warpig]

I haven't read the whole thread, but here's my general philosophy:"Skill gets you in a position where luck in the postseason can win you a championship."I played in a number of redraft leagues this year, and I did quite well. I'd be foolish, however, to assume it was 100% skill, but it wasn't 100% luck either. Skill dominates at the draft and in whom to pick up off the waiver wire, but luck factors into week by week scoring and when you happen to play another player.

I can agree with this. You do have to have a basic "skill" to draft a decent team with depth so if someone were to get hurt, you can just plug and go without missing a beat. But luck, I think, is the ultimate deciding factor.This is just my opinion, but that is why I like the larger leagues. I'm currently in a 32 team dynasty and I think that requires more "skill/knowledge" and greatly decreases the role that luck plays.In my 12 team auction redraft I had a very solid and deep team. It got me to the playoffs and I won my division, but got knocked out in the first round by a greatly inferior team. There was a great deal of parity across the board this year and that could be a reason. But I would highly recommend 32 team leagues for guys that feel that they have superior knowledge compared to their peers and want to cut back on the luck factor.Just my two cents

 

[Riffraff]

self, why are you putting so much time and effort into this hobby but your hard work does not pay off at the end. And others who do not put a third of the time, effort into FF and really do not follow the NFL as you do but they are being rewarded because of the LUCK factor.

Frame of reference.Self = skillOthers = luckSame thing goes through their minds when referencing you. To them, you were the lucky one and they are skillful.

 

[kwhutto]

We only have 6 teams in the playoffs and the top 2 reg season teams get a bye in the 1st round of the playoffs. It is the reward for finishing at the top. This evens out the luck factor pretty well.

 

[radballs]

I agree with what Unlucky said. If you play in enough leagues, you'll see whether or not you're expected value is higher than just random luck. And if you're not achieving a higher figure than complete randomness across many leagues, then your rankings or draft strategy may have been way off in that given year.

 

[snarfsnarf]

Not sure if it has already been mentioned but the best way to reduce the luck factor is to expand rosters, add defense, and expand starting requirements.

A Mike Furrey 3 TD game is not going to win on its own if you start 3RB's, 3WR's, 2QB's, and IDP.

 

[freelander]

We may be changing things up our 12 team redraft (one keeper) PPR league after this years results.

We only give $$$ to top 4 finishers overall after playoffs. The two division winners and top two league scorers, (myself included) ended up playing for 3rd and 4th place. Between us we had these RB's: LT, LJ, Westbrook, Bush, Betts and MJD.

The guy who won the league, won last year on SA...this year, he kept SA (of course) and drafted R. Moss and T.O. as first two picks ....he snuck in the playoffs and pretty much won on SA's only good game...

 

[Marek]

I believe it is fair to say that luck is a significant factor in every fantasy match-up in a H2H league. I also agree with Steve Tourek that over the long run, much like poker, luck evens out and skill does make the cream rise to the top. FBG subscribers can reference Steve Tourek's article on this here. It is an excellent read with moderate statistical evidence: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0...ce_tourek01.php

I agree with Tourek's findings, but despite that, I also agree that match-up luck is frustrating and I would like to see its role reduced. H2H leagues involve mountains of weekly match-up luck, whereas a simple ranking by cumulative Points-For eliminates pretty much all of it. The trade-off for most people is that a Points ranking system is not all that fun. I say “most people” based purely on the fact that H2H is the most common form of league by a landslide. A few points of criticism include that in a Points league, the underdog has very little chance in the late season, it does not resemble the NFL at all, and owners at the bottom of the league about half-way through the season often simply quit because there is very little chance of catching up due to the value differences in player scoring. When players quit out of boredom, frustration, or losing interest, it makes the league that much more boring; It likewise illustrates that your league needs some tweaking if “having fun” is an objective. However, if the sole objective of the league is to determine “Who has the best overall team”, then a Points-For league makes sense.

Obviously, someone is going to respond with "If players are quitting, it sounds like you're in a league with ####ty players and should join a real league." which is pure rhetoric and hopefully won’t be introduced to the discussion. Whether or not they stay doesn't effect whether or not most people consider it as fun or are as active as they might be otherwise. For many owners, H2H gives a sense of competition and volatility to the league. Rivalry's develop, ####-talking is dealt more often, match-up predictions are made, and ultimately there is an extra layer of substance to the league that keeps owners interested.

So I offer a suggestion to both party loyalists: Use a system that keeps the fun of H2H, but reduces the match-up luck. As with most things, the best solution often lies somewhere in the middle. AntSports has made the Victory Points system notorious, and it is finding its way into other league sites. MyFantasyLeague.com now offers them as well.

For those who haven't read about them yet (though most of you have), Victory Points (VP) basically give you credit for both your match-up performance and your overall performance. Assuming a 12 team league, you earn:

2 VP for a win

1 VP for a tie

0 VP for a loss

2 VP for a top 4 score

1 VP for a middle 4 score

0 VP for a bottom 4 score

So if you happen to be the #2 scoring team for the week, but got matched up with the #1 team, you still walk away with 2 VP. It's a quality hybrid system. You keep the fun of the match-ups, but cut out a sizable portion of the match-up luck out of the equation.

The Playoffs do present a problem, though. Using a VP system for 4-6 teams across two or three weeks for your playoffs just doesn't work well due to so few teams and so few weeks. So we're right back to the issue of match-up luck being a massive factor. A pure Points-For league doesn’t have this weakness. But if you don’t want a straight up Points-For league (like most people don’t) then I suggest that your Playoffs only should be a straight Points-For ranking across 3 weeks. This heavily reduces match-up issues and helps you better arrive at the "best team". The most general criticism of this is "This isn't how regular football is played, though. If you lose a match-up, you're out in the NFL playoffs." While that is true, the difference is that the NFL teams are competing against one another. With FF, we are simply comparing random owner scores where neither owner had an effect on the other's score. "Well, the Colts scored 28 against the Bears this week while the Chargers only scored 21 against the Seahawks. So the Chargers are out!" Outright elimination in that manner is quite inaccurate, but it is certainly intense. It is like dealing a hand of poker that you cannot fold on, and you must go all in. Sure, you may out-skill someone in general, but at that single point, there is a mountain of luck beyond choosing your lineup.

In summary: VP for the regular season, and Points ranking for the 3-4 playoff weeks might be a good suggestion to try out. It keeps the intensity and “fun” of a H2H league and will eliminate massive amounts of match-up luck the way Points leagues can do.

Less skilled fantasy owners love head to head. It gives them a chance to beat the better owners when mixing in the luck factor.

…

Arguing against a points league is like arguing against decimal scoring. It's a fear of the unknown. In both cases, once you try it, you know there's really no other way to go.”

The fallacy of accident / Sweeping generalization / Dicto simpliciterA sweeping generalization occurs when a general rule is applied to a particular situation, but the features of that particular situation mean the rule is inapplicable. It's the error made when you go from the general to the specific. For example:

"Christians generally dislike atheists. You are a Christian, so you must dislike atheists."

“Weak owners like beating superior owners, therefore anyone who likes a system where a superior owner can lose must be weak.”

I do agree that a Points-For system removes match-up luck entirely at the expense of other things as mentioned above. But if this is your rationalization, then you really should re-think it since it is pretty transparent.

It's cool man, don't get upset. Once you're on that higher level, you'll see where I'm coming from.

Insecurity, ahoy. You might want to try establishing that you are on a higher level by offering more than fallacies as a defense of something. If you’re uninterested in doing so, then don’t bother us with delusions of grandeur ;o Attempting to assert you are correct because you “know better” is a fallacy in and of itself. Not to mention the premise that you “know better” at all is completely non sequitur. I’m not saying Points leagues are wrong, mind you. Quite the opposite. But you should try bringing some meat to the table instead of this stuff.

 

[cstu]

self, why are you putting so much time and effort into this hobby but your hard work does not pay off at the end. And others who do not put a third of the time, effort into FF and really do not follow the NFL as you do but they are being rewarded because of the LUCK factor.

Frame of reference.Self = skillOthers = luckSame thing goes through their minds when referencing you. To them, you were the lucky one and they are skillful.

You don't see many posts from people saying "Man, I sure got lucky in the playoffs to win it all". I bet a lot of SJax owners are patting themselves on the back for being so skillful.

 

[fsufan]

self, why are you putting so much time and effort into this hobby but your hard work does not pay off at the end. And others who do not put a third of the time, effort into FF and really do not follow the NFL as you do but they are being rewarded because of the LUCK factor.

Frame of reference.Self = skillOthers = luckSame thing goes through their minds when referencing you. To them, you were the lucky one and they are skillful.

where have I said anything about skill vs luck . Read between the lines, this was a vent thread.

 

[roadkill1292]

I look at FF as gambling.

Not me - I look at it as fun. Maybe that's why the luck factor doesn't bother me as much, even though I want to win as badly as anyone else. But I accept the fact that there's way too much out of my control & that all the knowledge, planning, & foresight can't stop your season from turning to **** sometimes. I certainly wouldn't play FF where the money involved takes the fun out of it.

I like this answer best. Must be something about us Marylanders.Hootin' and hollerin' at others' misfortunes on the league message board is as good as it gets.

 

[Bcubed2355]

Actually the availablity of the internet sites and information available has taken the advantage away from the the player that does his homework. So it come down to which provide provides the best information anymore.

This site is the best that I have work with yet and is the only i will subscribe to for the forseeable forture. The others are either way overpriced that only the elite incomes can afford or no better then the free infromation available.

Even then advantage this site gives is gone because most of people in the leagues i play have discovered it. It used to be my secret weapon until some clown showed up to the draft with a laptop using the draft dominator to draft his team. I have always done my prep work with the DD but never used it during the draft now this year everyone showed up at my house with the a laptop using the DD. No use holding the a draft in that league anymore just load the teams in the DD and let it draft the whole league no need to have a live draft now because everyone is using the DD.

However, even though I didn't win any of my leagues I still had some draft steals from doing my homework like Colston, and Jones-Drew.

Even though everyone in my leagues are using the Draft, Lineup and Trade dominators they have not used the site to it's fullest potential such as the training camp reports and other tools available therefore steals are available but luck comes in when you have to play the right teams everyweek.

 

[Marek]

Even then advantage this site gives is gone because most of people in the leagues i play have discovered it. It used to be my secret weapon until some clown showed up to the draft with a laptop using the draft dominator to draft his team. I have always done my prep work with the DD but never used it during the draft now this year everyone showed up at my house with the a laptop using the DD. No use holding the a draft in that league anymore just load the teams in the DD and let it draft the whole league no need to have a live draft now because everyone is using the DD.

That's a good point. I could take that a step further to assert that since everyone is using the DD, then I know what everyone is going to pick. If I know that, then I can immediately have a gargantuan advantage and plan my draft accordingly to ensure I'm at the front of the upcoming positional runs. So it comes full circle.I think only two or three other guys I was playing with in my three leagues were using FBG info, so for my intents, I wouldn't consider it as an overused source just yet. Most definitely not in the average "work league". Sounds to be quite different for yours, though. :(

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Fantasy football would not be as popular without the luck factor.It's like the difference between poker and chess. Which of those two do you think is more popular?

Apples and oranges. Try again please.

It's a useful comparison. In something that is nearly all skill, like chess, good players have a hard time finding bad players willing to play them for money. In something that has a large luck element, like poker, good players have a much easier time finding bad players willing to play them for money. Fantasy football is much more like poker than it is like chess in that regard, and thank god for that. The 1000th best poker player in the world makes a lot more money than the 10th best chess player in the world.Don't complain about the luck element. Cherish it.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Don't complain about the luck element. Cherish it.

Extremely .I'm not sure why one would bother whining about the luck factor in FF. Indeed, I would argue that FF is ALL luck.For example, you can have the best draft possible in terms of snagging the highest VBD players out there. That means nothing when your stud RB blows a knee in week 2; another QB comes in under center for the year, preferring the WR3 he has worked with all preseason than the team's WR1; a team goes 12-2 and rests players in the last two games thus ruining your playoffs; not to mention other elements completely out of your control such as freak performances, bad weather, or a guy or an entire team having an off-year.What it really comes down to is minimizing risk against luck and all the things out of your control -- you can predict trends and who the better players may be over the course of the year, manage injury and waivers in-season, and try to select the best matchups every week. The better players are the ones who are able to minimize risk best -- this is where skill and experience certainly come in. But even these methods fail on both a seasonal and on a game to game basis. It's why the motto "Any Given Sunday" is still very true in the NFL. Even the most skilled FFer can fall prey to luck at any given time.And that's EXACTLY what makes this hobby fun. Where is the fun in trying to take luck out of the equation? You may as well give the trophy to the person with the highest VBD value after the draft. Poker -- actually, gambling in general -- is the perfect analogy, as that's pretty much what FF is -- gambling on probability when there is no assured outcome. I'd argue that it's impossible to take luck out of the equation, so why bother at all?I revel in agonizing over matchups, and though it's frustrating when I'm totally off, that's luck for you. I hate losing by less than a point when all the TE needs to do is catch one more ball -- but that's luck for you. Do I hate it when a low-point team sneaks into the playoffs and wins? Actually, no -- more power to them, actually. I play in a league with old friends, and the parity this brings keeps everyone involved. There are certainly better GMs in the bunch than others, but if you based the league totally on skill, we'd eventually end up having a league of 5 rather than 14. Plus the "snake" of the bunch who goes 8-8 and gets into the championship game provides smack and harassment fodder for years to come. I don't play this game simply for the percentages -- I play it to have fun with friends and enjoy the NFL games on a different level. If it wasn't for the volatility that luck brings into the equation, then you'd have a pretty sterile, boring hobby.My 2 cents.