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HC Jim Harbaugh, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter thehornet
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
He has already stated that he will play to win if they can get the 5 seed, and he should IMO. Big difference going to HOU vs. going to BAL. Furthermore, it seems to mean they would stand to play at KC in the second round, and IMO that is a better matchup for them than at BUF.
If they are locked into the 6 seed, he said they will "do what is best for the team."
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
A really light pushback........
Lamar Jackson won an MVP under Roman when he led the league in TD passes. Herbert's not the same kind of QB as Jackson, but he's got a rocket for an arm and a good running game can open a lot of things up downfield. If that offense clicks, I could easily see a 35 TD season for Herbert.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Probably right, but maybe there is some hope. He finished 15th in my league, 19 points from 10. Another year in the system, his rookie top target has another year under his belt, and they added to receiver room. A stronger run game may seem like a negative, but it should help sustain drives and create better opportunities in the passing game. The thing I did not like is they seemed to take the pedal off the gas in games they jumped out in front. Roman has touched on how limited the passing game was last year and I hope they become a little more aggressive in spots they are ahead along with becoming more consistent. Harbaugh also seems to love Justin and talks about them needing to get him into the HOF. I think there will be a good balance as the passing game grows allowing for some more frequent chunk plays. That may be an optimistic view, but I can see a world where the offense runs in good balance and everyone benefits. Top 5 is probably out the range of outcomes, but I think he has a decent shot at top 10. The fact that he can get you some points with his legs as well does not hurt.
The year you are talking about is 2019. Yes, Lamar did lead the league in passing TD's and was the overall QB1 in fantasy, but it wasn't because of his arm. He only threw for 3127 yards and would've finished below Jameis Winston if not for his record-setting 1213 rushing yards. You said it yourself - Herbert's not the same kind of QB as Jackson. As long as the Chargers run a slow-paced ball control game, Herbert's fantasy numbers will suffer, and he has no shot at fantasy greatness. But he can be fantasy goodness.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I'm not sure what you think you're countering about my post. I guess I should've left the MVP comment out? Other than that, it's a fact that Jackson led the NFL in TD passes in a Roman offense. I think Herbert has the talent to do the same.
When zamboni mentioned the LAC coaching staff not being good for Herbert's fantasy outlook, you said you had a really light pushback. What are you pushing back about, if not Herbert's fantasy outlook? It's literally the only thing zamboni talked about.
I agree Herbert can have a great MVP type season under this current LAC staff and even lead the league in TD passes, but in no way will it translate to fantasy greatness without massive rushing numbers from him as well.
Thanx, Mod
Chaka
Footballguy
If you lead the league in TD passes you don't need massive rushing numbers and Herbert can move better than most. Another 300 on the ground and 3-5 rush would do the trick.
I doubt he will lead the league in TD passes but, if he does he should have a great fantasy season.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I was talking more in NFL terms and should've qualified that, though I think Herbert will be a really good FF QB. My main point was that being in a run-first offense doesn't necessarily preclude a QB from putting up good numbers.
Leading in TD passes is only one step in becoming a top fantasy QB. You also need either a lot of passing yardage, or fantastic rushing numbers. And you talk like another 300 on the ground is reasonable. He had 300 last year. You think 600 for Herbert is in his range? Only Jackson, Daniels, and Hurts did that last year. There is one way he can be a top notch fantasy QB under Harbaugh's staff - if he leads all other QB's by about 10 passing TD's.
It does if they aren't putting up lots of passing yards or lots of rushing stats. Can you think of a QB that finished near the top with only lots of TD's?
Chaka
Footballguy
I meant another 300 yard rushing season and 3-5 TDs. He averages 262 & 3 over five seasons.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am not as high on Hampton as some and think Dobbins is actually a better pure runner of the football (probably not popular I know). Personally I think they will have to pass at a balance and be happy to rely on Herbert a little more as the passing game develops. Bottom line is I do not think the running game has been boosted enough to take the ball out of Herbert’s hands.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I think you’re under estimating Najee. He’s not all pro, but he’s as solid a runner as they get for what it appears Harbaugh and Roman want.
The ball isn’t taken out of Herbert’s hands, but I see little reason to think they’ll run less in 2025.
I don't care who you are - this is hilarious!
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Could be that his family just let him win at hide and seek, so they would have a short vacation from him.
OK, I think we have to define this, because we are talking in circles. Herbert will not be a top 3 fantasy QB unless he throws for at least 4500 yards AND at least 32 TD's. BOTH have to happen for him to finish that high. Last year he was 3870 and 23. No way he has a shot at a top 3 finish. It just won't happen under Harbaugh. He actually has a better shot at MVP than fantasy QB #1.
zamboni
Footballguy
All good points above. I guess I may have over expressed concern about Herbert. Not saying he’ll be a bad fantasy asset, just expecting he’ll be a middle of the road one (top 10-15 sounds about right). Mainly under the premise that that they’ll be a balanced offense, but above all at a somewhat slower pace that may keep the number of plays down relative to many other offenses. He does offer a bit in the run game but not enough to make a huge dent IMO.
Exactly! Not saying he will be bad by any means. But he finished QB2 in 2021, and has no chance at a QB2 finish under Harbaugh. It's not a knock on him. As a matter of fact, the higher he finishes in the QB fantasy standings, the lower I think LAC finishes in actual standings.
zamboni
Footballguy
Herbert definitely has the talent to get back to that 2021 guy, but that was under a Brandon Staley offense and a pretty porous defense.
Chaka
Footballguy
I agree...ish.
I think, in the context of leading the league in TDs (something I don't think he will do), 3,800 yards, which he did last year (he averages 4,500 per 17 games over 5 seasons), 42 TDs (the average TD leader over the last 5 & 7 years), 250 rush yards and 2.5 rush TDs is a pretty monster season.
If he hits the rushing numbers (250 & 2.5) and the passing yards (3,800), then anything around 30-32 passing TDs, which I think is definitely attainable, makes him a #1 QB and a great value relative to his likely ADP.
Chaka
Footballguy
I agree...ish.
I think, in the context of leading the league in TDs (something I don't think he will do), 3,800 yards, which he did last year (he averages 4,500 per 17 games over 5 seasons), 42 TDs (the average TD leader over the last 5 & 7 years), 250 rush yards and 2.5 rush TDs is a pretty monster season.
If he hits the rushing numbers (250 & 2.5) and the passing yards (3,800), then anything around 30-32 passing TDs, which I think is definitely attainable, makes him a #1 QB and a great value relative to his likely ADP.
I see the disconnect. When I say QB1, I literally mean the best fantasy QB = QB1. Your definition of QB1 could go all the way down to QB12. That's a massive difference. Herbert actually finished as the QB3 in 2021. Do you think he has any chance of finishing that high in 2025 under Harbaugh? "QB1" and "a QB1" are 2 totally different things.
Chaka
Footballguy
Again, yes/no.
I'm with you on the QB1-12 thing. But the context of our exchange started with the idea of him leading the league in TDs
IMO 3,800 yards, 42 pass TDs (league leading), 300 yards rushing and 3 rush TD could definitely be the #1 overall QB. Maybe not, but certainly in the conversation.
I don't think the pass TDs will happen, but I also think he'll comfortably exceed 3,800 pass yards and 250 rush yards. Three rush TDs is a fair o/u as well.
So the question is, how much can he improve his pass TD efficiency? He put up 31 & 38 in his first two years (~5.4 TD%), but it's been a steep decline over the last three with 25, 20 (13 games) and 23 (~4.2 TD%).
I haven't started any rankings yet, but my feeling is he will be somewhat underrated this year and he brings, IMO, top 5 QB (maybe top 3) upside.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think discussing Harbaugh's players derails the thread, but if Tau thinks it does I'm happy to pivot.
Wanna talk about his heart problems?
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zamboni
Footballguy
This is the playing pace I discussed earlier that gives me some concern:
Average number of plays per game by team
As per the link, the Chargers ran the 4th fewest plays on average last year after ranking near the top for the previous handful of years.
Granted, there are a lot of variables that go into offensive plays per game, but unless Harbaugh changes his stripes, it’s going to be a slow pace offense - and that obviously has a major correlation with fantasy production.
Average number of plays per game by team
As per the link, the Chargers ran the 4th fewest plays on average last year after ranking near the top for the previous handful of years.
Granted, there are a lot of variables that go into offensive plays per game, but unless Harbaugh changes his stripes, it’s going to be a slow pace offense - and that obviously has a major correlation with fantasy production.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
The obvious point is that there is a dedicated Herbert thread where it would be more appropriate to have this conversation. But carry on, obviously nobody else cares.
Here is where we differ. You say above he could finish as the QB1 overall with 3.8K passing yards, 45 total TD's, and 300 rushing. I say he could not do that. Sure, the 45 TD's help, but 3.8K passing and 300 rushing would be matched by many. He would have to beat all other QB's by 10+ TD's. I think I said many posts ago, Herbert can only finish as a top fantasy QB with BOTH lots of passing yardage and lots of passing TD's. Lots of TD's alone wont put him in QB1 contention. He MUST have either tons of passing yards or tons or rushing yards, and only 1 of them is realistic - passing yards.
Hahaha. I like how you removed my previous sentence. Here is what I actually posted...
It does if they aren't putting up lots of passing yards or lots of rushing stats. Can you think of a QB that finished near the top with only lots of TD's?
Mahomes finished as QB1 overall with 50 TD's and 5097 yards passing. No other QB was even within 10 passing TD's. Do you think for a minute that Herbert has a chance of finishing as a top 3 fantasy QB, let alone top 1? It should be possible, since he did finish as QB3 in 2021. But I am saying it is IMPOSSIBLE under Harbaugh.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh yeah, that wasn’t intentional. I admit to half reading and being lazy. I just wanted to post that gif.
Trebek! I'll take anal bum covers for $400Oh yeah, that wasn’t intentional. I admit to half reading and being lazy. I just wanted to post that gif.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ll take the penis mighty for $500, Alex!Trebek! I'll take anal bum covers for $400Oh yeah, that wasn’t intentional. I admit to half reading and being lazy. I just wanted to post that gif.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I like Herbert as a QB, but in doing projections myself, he just doesn't end up much higher than 16-18 for me. Harbaugh has always led a slow paced offense, even in SF, and the volume is just not there to support anything more for Herbert.
FYI, giving Herbert 3,800 yards and 42 TDs as posted above makes him QB5 in my rankings. But those projections are not realistic at all IMO. People point to his 2021 season as a comparison, but there is no way a Harbaugh offense has that kind of volume. Herbert dropped back 674 times that year. Last year? 504.
FYI, giving Herbert 3,800 yards and 42 TDs as posted above makes him QB5 in my rankings. But those projections are not realistic at all IMO. People point to his 2021 season as a comparison, but there is no way a Harbaugh offense has that kind of volume. Herbert dropped back 674 times that year. Last year? 504.
Tau837
Footballguy
These numbers you cite are passing attempts but you called them dropbacks.
Per PFF, regular season only:
- 2024:
- Chargers QBs had 591 dropbacks - Herbert 581, Heinicke 10
- Herbert's 581 dropbacks resulted in 504 pass attempts, 41 sacks, and 31 scrambles; that only adds up to 576, not sure what happened with the other 5
- 2021:
- Chargers QBs had 740 dropbacks - all Herbert
- Herbert's 740 dropbacks resulted in 672 pass attempts, 31 sacks, and 36 scrambles; that only adds up to 739, not sure what happened with the other one
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