"He won't get 300 carries" (1 Viewer)

[Aardvarks]

Whenever a RB is being discussed in a fantasy football forum (especially a rookie RB like Mathews or Best), some will love his prospects for the upcoming season -- and others will bag on him for various reasons. It usually goes something like this:

Chatter #1: "Dude I'm sky-high on this kid, he's got top-10 fantasy RB written all over him."

Chatter #2: "I don't know, I just don't see it. Can he stay healthy? Besides, he's not gonna get 300 carries."

He's probably not going to get 300 carries, no matter who it is. Only a handful of RBs will! It's so rare, and as a benchmark it's not pertinent to your prognostication. After the perceived 3-4 workhorse RBs are gone, you shouldn't be concerned with 300 carries. In fact, 4000-yard passers are more common than 300-carry RBs these days!

2009:

Chris Johnson 358 carries

Thomas Jones 331

Steven Jackson 324

Adrian Peterson 314

M. Jones-Drew 312

Cedric Benson 301

2008:

Michael Turner 376

Adrian Peterson 363

Clinton Portis 342

Matt Forte 316

Ryan Grant 312

2007:

Clinton Portis 325

Edgerrin James 324

Willie Parker 321

LaDainian Tomlinson 315

Thomas Jones 310

LenDale White 303

In the 3-year span from 2007-2009 there were 17 300-carry RBs. (By comparison, there were 22 4000-yd passers! It's a different era.)

In the 3-year span from 2001-2003 there were 32 300-carry RBs. That's about double the recent total.

You don't need 300 carries, or even close to that amount, to be a top-10 RB anymore. Jeez, Ricky Williams was the 7th-best fantasy RB last year in most leagues. He only had 241 carries!

Example: Here's my 2010 projection for a certain RB that I love, "Player X"...

214 carries - 1,097 yards - 4.8 per carry - 8 rush TDs - 29 catches - 263 rec yds - 2 rec TDs

Not a big workload. The 214 carries suggests a platoon like at least 25 NFL offenses will have -- or -- he gets nicked and misses a couple games. Either way, he's not even close to 300 carries. But, based on recent fantasy indexes, those stats will slip him into the top-10 RBs. He won't get 300 carries. Who cares? Heck, he's likely no higher than a 6th-round pick this summer... pending the fantasy herd's preseason microscope (a 50- or 60-yard scamper in August vaults him into the 3rd round ).

300 carries? Dude, 240 carries would be icing on the cake!

By the way, Player X is Jahvid Best.

 

[Faust]

Whenever a RB is being discussed in a fantasy football forum (especially a rookie RB like Mathews or Best), some will love his prospects for the upcoming season -- and others will bag on him for various reasons. It usually goes something like this:

Chatter #1: "Dude I'm sky-high on this kid, he's got top-10 fantasy RB written all over him."

Chatter #2: "I don't know, I just don't see it. Can he stay healthy? Besides, he's not gonna get 300 carries."

He's probably not going to get 300 carries, no matter who it is. Only a handful of RBs will! It's so rare, and as a benchmark it's not pertinent to your prognostication. After the perceived 3-4 workhorse RBs are gone, you shouldn't be concerned with 300 carries. In fact, 4000-yard passers are more common than 300-carry RBs these days!

2009:

Chris Johnson 358 carries

Thomas Jones 331

Steven Jackson 324

Adrian Peterson 314

M. Jones-Drew 312

Cedric Benson 301

2008:

Michael Turner 376

Adrian Peterson 363

Clinton Portis 342

Matt Forte 316

Ryan Grant 312

2007:

Clinton Portis 325

Edgerrin James 324

Willie Parker 321

LaDainian Tomlinson 315

Thomas Jones 310

LenDale White 303

In the 3-year span from 2007-2009 there were 17 300-carry RBs. (By comparison, there were 22 4000-yd passers! It's a different era.)

In the 3-year span from 2001-2003 there were 32 300-carry RBs. That's about double the recent total.

You don't need 300 carries, or even close to that amount, to be a top-10 RB anymore. Jeez, Ricky Williams was the 7th-best fantasy RB last year in most leagues. He only had 241 carries!

Example: Here's my 2010 projection for a certain RB that I love, "Player X"...

214 carries - 1,097 yards - 4.8 per carry - 8 rush TDs - 29 catches - 263 rec yds - 2 rec TDs

Not a big workload. The 214 carries suggests a platoon like at least 25 NFL offenses will have -- or -- he gets nicked and misses a couple games. Either way, he's not even close to 300 carries. But, based on recent fantasy indexes, those stats will slip him into the top-10 RBs. He won't get 300 carries. Who cares? Heck, he's likely no higher than a 6th-round pick this summer... pending the fantasy herd's preseason microscope (a 50- or 60-yard scamper in August vaults him into the 3rd round ).

300 carries? Dude, 240 carries would be icing on the cake!

By the way, Player X is Jahvid Best.

 

[gianmarco]

Whenever a RB is being discussed in a fantasy football forum (especially a rookie RB like Mathews or Best), some will love his prospects for the upcoming season -- and others will bag on him for various reasons. It usually goes something like this:

Chatter #1: "Dude I'm sky-high on this kid, he's got top-10 fantasy RB written all over him."

Chatter #2: "I don't know, I just don't see it. Can he stay healthy? Besides, he's not gonna get 300 carries."

He's probably not going to get 300 carries, no matter who it is. Only a handful of RBs will! It's so rare, and as a benchmark it's not pertinent to your prognostication. After the perceived 3-4 workhorse RBs are gone, you shouldn't be concerned with 300 carries. In fact, 4000-yard passers are more common than 300-carry RBs these days!

2009:

Chris Johnson 358 carries

Thomas Jones 331

Steven Jackson 324

Adrian Peterson 314

M. Jones-Drew 312

Cedric Benson 301

2008:

Michael Turner 376

Adrian Peterson 363

Clinton Portis 342

Matt Forte 316

Ryan Grant 312

2007:

Clinton Portis 325

Edgerrin James 324

Willie Parker 321

LaDainian Tomlinson 315

Thomas Jones 310

LenDale White 303

In the 3-year span from 2007-2009 there were 17 300-carry RBs. (By comparison, there were 22 4000-yd passers! It's a different era.)

In the 3-year span from 2001-2003 there were 32 300-carry RBs. That's about double the recent total.

You don't need 300 carries, or even close to that amount, to be a top-10 RB anymore. Jeez, Ricky Williams was the 7th-best fantasy RB last year in most leagues. He only had 241 carries!

Example: Here's my 2010 projection for a certain RB that I love, "Player X"...

214 carries - 1,097 yards - 4.8 per carry - 8 rush TDs - 29 catches - 263 rec yds - 2 rec TDs

Not a big workload. The 214 carries suggests a platoon like at least 25 NFL offenses will have -- or -- he gets nicked and misses a couple games. Either way, he's not even close to 300 carries. But, based on recent fantasy indexes, those stats will slip him into the top-10 RBs. He won't get 300 carries. Who cares? Heck, he's likely no higher than a 6th-round pick this summer... pending the fantasy herd's preseason microscope (a 50- or 60-yard scamper in August vaults him into the 3rd round ).

300 carries? Dude, 240 carries would be icing on the cake!

By the way, Player X is Jahvid Best.

Of course you don't need a big workload if you're going to project 4.8 ypc. Then again, averaging 4.8 ypc with 200+ carries is even more rare than 300 carries.

In the last 3 years, same timeframe as above, there were only 12 RBs that averaged 4.8 ypc on over 200 carries.

1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.8908 10 230.6000

2 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.6034 14 346.9000

3 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.2717 7 252.1000

4 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.1267 10 193.2000

5 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.1713 7 178.9000

6 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 26 4 13 219 1089 4.9726 15 202.5000

7 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.8924 9 208.8000

8 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 23 2 16 363 1760 4.8485 10 248.5000

9 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 25 3 16 274 1518 5.5401 18 283.9000

10 Brandon Jacobs rb 2007 25 3 11 201 1011 5.0299 4 154.5000

11 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.6345 12 238.9000

12 Fred Taylor rb 2007 31 10 15 223 1202 5.3901 5 156.0000

Not sure that's the point you want to try and make.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I like what the OP posted but then I like GianMarco showing the other side of that coin.



I say it every year but it bears repeating...a handful of games truly decide the NFL season, a handful plays truly decide the outcome of most football games, and a handful of players truly decide the outcome for most FF owners.

 

[TheFanatic]

Can we talk about "But he doesn't have a lot of mileage on him?"

 

[Faust]

Whenever a RB is being discussed in a fantasy football forum (especially a rookie RB like Mathews or Best), some will love his prospects for the upcoming season -- and others will bag on him for various reasons. It usually goes something like this:

Chatter #1: "Dude I'm sky-high on this kid, he's got top-10 fantasy RB written all over him."

Chatter #2: "I don't know, I just don't see it. Can he stay healthy? Besides, he's not gonna get 300 carries."

He's probably not going to get 300 carries, no matter who it is. Only a handful of RBs will! It's so rare, and as a benchmark it's not pertinent to your prognostication. After the perceived 3-4 workhorse RBs are gone, you shouldn't be concerned with 300 carries. In fact, 4000-yard passers are more common than 300-carry RBs these days!

2009:

Chris Johnson 358 carries

Thomas Jones 331

Steven Jackson 324

Adrian Peterson 314

M. Jones-Drew 312

Cedric Benson 301

2008:

Michael Turner 376

Adrian Peterson 363

Clinton Portis 342

Matt Forte 316

Ryan Grant 312

2007:

Clinton Portis 325

Edgerrin James 324

Willie Parker 321

LaDainian Tomlinson 315

Thomas Jones 310

LenDale White 303

In the 3-year span from 2007-2009 there were 17 300-carry RBs. (By comparison, there were 22 4000-yd passers! It's a different era.)

In the 3-year span from 2001-2003 there were 32 300-carry RBs. That's about double the recent total.

You don't need 300 carries, or even close to that amount, to be a top-10 RB anymore. Jeez, Ricky Williams was the 7th-best fantasy RB last year in most leagues. He only had 241 carries!

Example: Here's my 2010 projection for a certain RB that I love, "Player X"...

214 carries - 1,097 yards - 4.8 per carry - 8 rush TDs - 29 catches - 263 rec yds - 2 rec TDs

Not a big workload. The 214 carries suggests a platoon like at least 25 NFL offenses will have -- or -- he gets nicked and misses a couple games. Either way, he's not even close to 300 carries. But, based on recent fantasy indexes, those stats will slip him into the top-10 RBs. He won't get 300 carries. Who cares? Heck, he's likely no higher than a 6th-round pick this summer... pending the fantasy herd's preseason microscope (a 50- or 60-yard scamper in August vaults him into the 3rd round ).

300 carries? Dude, 240 carries would be icing on the cake!

By the way, Player X is Jahvid Best.

Of course you don't need a big workload if you're going to project 4.8 ypc. Then again, averaging 4.8 ypc with 200+ carries is even more rare than 300 carries.

In the last 3 years, same timeframe as above, there were only 12 RBs that averaged 4.8 ypc on over 200 carries.

1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.8908 10 230.6000

2 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.6034 14 346.9000

3 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.2717 7 252.1000

4 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.1267 10 193.2000

5 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.1713 7 178.9000

6 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 26 4 13 219 1089 4.9726 15 202.5000

7 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.8924 9 208.8000

8 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 23 2 16 363 1760 4.8485 10 248.5000

9 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 25 3 16 274 1518 5.5401 18 283.9000

10 Brandon Jacobs rb 2007 25 3 11 201 1011 5.0299 4 154.5000

11 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.6345 12 238.9000

12 Fred Taylor rb 2007 31 10 15 223 1202 5.3901 5 156.0000

Not sure that's the point you want to try and make.

Also a very solid post...4.8 ypc might be a touch high to project...what would be more realistic for Best? 4.2? 4.5?

 

[CaptainHook]

if you cant figure out successfully whos going to approach that 300 carry mark youre basically just rolling the dice that your 240 guy breaks a couple extra long runs than other guy for him to have a high enough ypc for him to be useful. the marginal value of 240 carry back over waiver scrubs is going to be so so so so much less than a 300carry guy because you can pretty easily find a guy on waivers thats gonna get 10-15 touches.

 

[gianmarco]

Also a very solid post...4.8 ypc might be a touch high to project...what would be more realistic for Best? 4.2? 4.5?

Well, unfortunately, this is a big reason why I'm not a fan of projections. I could give you many different #'s and give justification for every single one. In the end it's nothing more than a guess. Since the entire range will be predicted by different folks, the ones that end up nailing it for whatever reason they used to predict it in the first place will simply have "gotten lucky", IMO. We have no idea how Best's game will translate to the NFL. We have no idea what kinds of situations they will use him in. We have no idea how the O-line will far this year. We have no idea if last year's YPC by K. Smith was indicative of his talent level or the O-line. We have no idea if Best is going to significantly outperform Smith in that role even if he is "more talented". In other words, I could justify a ypc as little as 3.6 if I wanted or as high as 4.8 if I wanted. The farther out you get, the less likely it is to happen. The thing is, we have no baseline in order to set our projections so anything is nothing more than a guess.It's a little different than trying to project someone like MJD or Adrian Peterson, guys who have been in the league a couple years and their situations are relatively stable. Even if there are changes (i.e. the loss of Chester and addition of Gerhart), you have a baseline from which to "tweak". When you get extreme personnel changes (i.e. Marshall to Miami), it throws previous #'s out the window and it's a guess. If I were to guess, I'd put Best close to a league average and say that's the most likely to happen. If he exceeds it or fails to meet it this year, then I try to find out why that is. This is why drafting by talent is the way to go. Follow the talent and the #'s will follow. I'm not going to avoid Spiller and take Mathews just because Spiller has to compete with more RBs and Mathews doesn't. If I think Spiller is better (which I do), then he's going to eventually earn the touches and do more with them than his counterparts.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's look at this another way. If a player gets 250+ carries, he's getting a solid load and is probably deserving of it and is doing something with it. So, if we can predict who's going to get 250 carries or more, then we're in a good spot. So let's look at <250 carries. This is a completely arbitrary #, but it's just to give an idea and show that, while you don't need 300 carries to be a top 10 back, it's not as simple as getting 214 either unless you're putting up a hefty YPC. And of course, putting up a nice YPC isn't very common either for RB's with 200+ carries.

Here are the RB's between 200-250 carries last year.

1 Joseph Addai rb 2009 26 4 15 219 828 3.7808 10 200.50002 Marion Barber rb 2009 26 5 15 214 932 4.3551 7 157.30003 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.8908 10 230.60004 Fred Jackson rb 2009 28 3 16 238 1062 4.4622 2 173.65005 Brandon Jacobs rb 2009 27 5 15 224 835 3.7277 5 137.90006 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2009 22 2 16 242 1108 4.5785 7 184.90007 Knowshon Moreno rb 2009 22 1 16 247 947 3.8340 7 170.00008 Kevin Smith rb 2009 23 2 13 217 747 3.4424 4 145.60009 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.1267 10 193.200010 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2009 30 9 14 223 730 3.2735 12 160.400011 Cadillac Williams rb 2009 27 5 16 209 816 3.9043 4 145.500012 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.1713 7 178.900013 Ricky Williams rb 2009 32 11 16 241 1121 4.6515 11 214.5000
That's 13 RB's. Only 5 of those RBs had > 4.5 ypc (solid #): Gore, DeAngelo, Stewart, Mendenhall, Ricky Williams

Not surprisingly, 3 of those guys are considered top 10 RBs (Gore, Stewy, DeAngelo) and Mendenhall up there as well by many. Ricky is still an incredibly talented RB. Then you've got some very low ypc #s that are < 4.0 ypc (6 of them). That's including Kevin Smith who happens to be the RB on the team that Best is now on.

In other words, there is a HUGE range of what YPCs can look like by RB's in that carry range. Some can do quite well and some can do not so well at all. Projecting Best at the upper limit of that range is very optimistic but likely not realistic.

I guess the bottom line is that you need to try and find RB's that either:

1) get a lot of carries

2) maintain a successful ypc (>~4.5)

3) both of the above

So sure, you don't need to get a lot of carries (300+) to be a top 10 RB, but if you aren't, you better have a high YPC. And if you don't have a high YPC, then you better get a lot of carries. Saying that's a rare to see RBs with 300+ carries is true, but it's equally as rare to see RBs with far less carries that have a YPC high enough to product top 10 #'s. The trick is finding the guys that can fit in either category. Of course, the 2 often go hand in hand as RBs that are more talented will have a higher YPC and thus will get more touches.

What does all this mean? Get the most talented RBs you can find. The #'s will work themselves out.

 

[Comer]

Whenever a RB is being discussed in a fantasy football forum (especially a rookie RB like Mathews or Best), some will love his prospects for the upcoming season -- and others will bag on him for various reasons. It usually goes something like this:

Chatter #1: "Dude I'm sky-high on this kid, he's got top-10 fantasy RB written all over him."

Chatter #2: "I don't know, I just don't see it. Can he stay healthy? Besides, he's not gonna get 300 carries."

He's probably not going to get 300 carries, no matter who it is. Only a handful of RBs will! It's so rare, and as a benchmark it's not pertinent to your prognostication. After the perceived 3-4 workhorse RBs are gone, you shouldn't be concerned with 300 carries. In fact, 4000-yard passers are more common than 300-carry RBs these days!

2009:

Chris Johnson 358 carries

Thomas Jones 331

Steven Jackson 324

Adrian Peterson 314

M. Jones-Drew 312

Cedric Benson 301

2008:

Michael Turner 376

Adrian Peterson 363

Clinton Portis 342

Matt Forte 316

Ryan Grant 312

2007:

Clinton Portis 325

Edgerrin James 324

Willie Parker 321

LaDainian Tomlinson 315

Thomas Jones 310

LenDale White 303

In the 3-year span from 2007-2009 there were 17 300-carry RBs. (By comparison, there were 22 4000-yd passers! It's a different era.)

In the 3-year span from 2001-2003 there were 32 300-carry RBs. That's about double the recent total.

You don't need 300 carries, or even close to that amount, to be a top-10 RB anymore. Jeez, Ricky Williams was the 7th-best fantasy RB last year in most leagues. He only had 241 carries!

Example: Here's my 2010 projection for a certain RB that I love, "Player X"...

214 carries - 1,097 yards - 4.8 per carry - 8 rush TDs - 29 catches - 263 rec yds - 2 rec TDs

Not a big workload. The 214 carries suggests a platoon like at least 25 NFL offenses will have -- or -- he gets nicked and misses a couple games. Either way, he's not even close to 300 carries. But, based on recent fantasy indexes, those stats will slip him into the top-10 RBs. He won't get 300 carries. Who cares? Heck, he's likely no higher than a 6th-round pick this summer... pending the fantasy herd's preseason microscope (a 50- or 60-yard scamper in August vaults him into the 3rd round ).

300 carries? Dude, 240 carries would be icing on the cake!

By the way, Player X is Jahvid Best.

Of course you don't need a big workload if you're going to project 4.8 ypc. Then again, averaging 4.8 ypc with 200+ carries is even more rare than 300 carries.

In the last 3 years, same timeframe as above, there were only 12 RBs that averaged 4.8 ypc on over 200 carries.

1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.8908 10 230.6000

2 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.6034 14 346.9000

3 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.2717 7 252.1000

4 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.1267 10 193.2000

5 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.1713 7 178.9000

6 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 26 4 13 219 1089 4.9726 15 202.5000

7 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.8924 9 208.8000

8 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 23 2 16 363 1760 4.8485 10 248.5000

9 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 25 3 16 274 1518 5.5401 18 283.9000

10 Brandon Jacobs rb 2007 25 3 11 201 1011 5.0299 4 154.5000

11 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.6345 12 238.9000

12 Fred Taylor rb 2007 31 10 15 223 1202 5.3901 5 156.0000

Not sure that's the point you want to try and make.

Also a very solid post...4.8 ypc might be a touch high to project...what would be more realistic for Best? 4.2? 4.5?

Detroit's O-line is terrible. I am even less sold on the O-line than Best. 3.8 - 4.2 YPG

 

[theglorydays]

Let's look at this another way. If a player gets 250+ carries, he's getting a solid load and is probably deserving of it and is doing something with it. So, if we can predict who's going to get 250 carries or more, then we're in a good spot. So let's look at <250 carries. This is a completely arbitrary #, but it's just to give an idea and show that, while you don't need 300 carries to be a top 10 back, it's not as simple as getting 214 either unless you're putting up a hefty YPC. And of course, putting up a nice YPC isn't very common either for RB's with 200+ carries.Here are the RB's between 200-250 carries last year.

1	Joseph Addai	rb	2009	26	4	15	219	828	3.7808	10	200.5000 2	Marion Barber	rb	2009	26	5	15	214	932	4.3551	7	157.3000 3	Frank Gore	rb	2009	26	5	14	229	1120	4.8908	10	230.6000 4	Fred Jackson	rb	2009	28	3	16	238	1062	4.4622	2	173.6500 5	Brandon Jacobs	rb	2009	27	5	15	224	835	3.7277	5	137.9000 6	Rashard Mendenhall	rb	2009	22	2	16	242	1108	4.5785	7	184.9000 7	Knowshon Moreno	rb	2009	22	1	16	247	947	3.8340	7	170.0000 8	Kevin Smith	rb	2009	23	2	13	217	747	3.4424	4	145.6000 9	Jonathan Stewart	rb	2009	22	2	16	221	1133	5.1267	10	193.2000 10	LaDainian Tomlinson	rb	2009	30	9	14	223	730	3.2735	12	160.4000 11	Cadillac Williams	rb	2009	27	5	16	209	816	3.9043	4	145.5000 12	DeAngelo Williams	rb	2009	26	4	13	216	1117	5.1713	7	178.9000 13	Ricky Williams	rb	2009	32	11	16	241	1121	4.6515	11	214.5000

That's 13 RB's. Only 5 of those RBs had > 4.5 ypc (solid #): Gore, DeAngelo, Stewart, Mendenhall, Ricky WilliamsNot surprisingly, 3 of those guys are considered top 10 RBs (Gore, Stewy, DeAngelo) and Mendenhall up there as well by many. Ricky is still an incredibly talented RB. Then you've got some very low ypc #s that are < 4.0 ypc (6 of them). That's including Kevin Smith who happens to be the RB on the team that Best is now on. In other words, there is a HUGE range of what YPCs can look like by RB's in that carry range. Some can do quite well and some can do not so well at all. Projecting Best at the upper limit of that range is very optimistic but likely not realistic. I guess the bottom line is that you need to try and find RB's that either:1) get a lot of carries2) maintain a successful ypc (>~4.5)3) both of the aboveSo sure, you don't need to get a lot of carries (300+) to be a top 10 RB, but if you aren't, you better have a high YPC. And if you don't have a high YPC, then you better get a lot of carries. Saying that's a rare to see RBs with 300+ carries is true, but it's equally as rare to see RBs with far less carries that have a YPC high enough to product top 10 #'s. The trick is finding the guys that can fit in either category. Of course, the 2 often go hand in hand as RBs that are more talented will have a higher YPC and thus will get more touches. What does all this mean? Get the most talented RBs you can find. The #'s will work themselves out.

Good post. This is one of the reasons i love Deangelo Williams. The guy averages over 5 ypc in his career so he doesn't need 300 carries to have a great season.

 

[Tau837]

Follow the talent and the #'s will follow. I'm not going to avoid Spiller and take Mathews just because Spiller has to compete with more RBs and Mathews doesn't. If I think Spiller is better (which I do), then he's going to eventually earn the touches and do more with them than his counterparts.

You seem to be talking about dynasty here. But I'm pretty sure nobody does projections further out than the next season... so doing projections is more relevant for redraft purposes IMO. So, while your dynasty approach is perfectly valid, it doesn't seem like a good reason to say projections aren't valuable for the next season.

 

[dickey moe]

In the last 3 years, same timeframe as above, there were only 12 RBs that averaged 4.8 ypc on over 200 carries.

1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.8908 10 230.60002 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.6034 14 346.90003 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.2717 7 252.10004 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.1267 10 193.20005 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.1713 7 178.90006 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 26 4 13 219 1089 4.9726 15 202.50007 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.8924 9 208.80008 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 23 2 16 363 1760 4.8485 10 248.50009 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 25 3 16 274 1518 5.5401 18 283.900010 Brandon Jacobs rb 2007 25 3 11 201 1011 5.0299 4 154.500011 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.6345 12 238.900012 Fred Taylor rb 2007 31 10 15 223 1202 5.3901 5 156.0000

Not sure that's the point you want to try and make.

Another reason why Gore should arguably be considered a Tier 1 RB in fantasy football (but isn't by most). He simply does more with less.

 

[Aardvarks]

In the last 3 years, same timeframe as above, there were only 12 RBs that averaged 4.8 ypc on over 200 carries.

1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.8908 10 230.60002 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.6034 14 346.90003 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.2717 7 252.10004 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.1267 10 193.20005 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.1713 7 178.90006 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 26 4 13 219 1089 4.9726 15 202.50007 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.8924 9 208.80008 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 23 2 16 363 1760 4.8485 10 248.50009 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 25 3 16 274 1518 5.5401 18 283.900010 Brandon Jacobs rb 2007 25 3 11 201 1011 5.0299 4 154.500011 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.6345 12 238.900012 Fred Taylor rb 2007 31 10 15 223 1202 5.3901 5 156.0000

Not sure that's the point you want to try and make.

Another reason why Gore should arguably be considered a Tier 1 RB in fantasy football (but isn't by most). He simply does more with less.

The YPC thing is sorta derailing my original point about so few backs getting 300 carries. Change Best from 214 carries/4.8 to 231 carries/4.5, shave a few fantasy points off, whatever. I just get tired of people hedging on RBs because "he won't get 300 carries."I do believe he'll bust off long runs left and right though. And if he gets 210+ carries Best could be the fantasy SOD.

 

[The Real Yoda]

I'm sorry this post has NOTHING to do with football. But I thought this was hilarious.

People reading this thread

5 Members: The Real Yoda, TheEmpire, Jedi Knight

 

[karmarooster]

1). regarding Best's YPC.... i like the above-average 4.8 you started with. if you just go with league average, its a cop-out. Best has speed, and plays more than half his games indoors on turf. you gotta call it like you see it with rookies who have no track record to tweak, and that requires going out on a limb. sure it's just guessing, but giving him the league average is just guessing as well without using your intuition.

2). regarding this whole "he won't get 300 carries" argument: i hear ya. there's less than a half dozen guys next year who figure to get 300+, so beyond them it's not a crucial factor in determining a players value. here's what is: receptions. i'd love to see the intelligent minds that roam this board work their magic with these numbers. for example, in the past 3 years, what's the average number of receptions for the top 10 backs? as carries go down virtually league wide, i'd say receptions have either gone up or at least remained steady.

obviously receptions are valuable in PPR, but theyre even valuable in standard scoring. because virtually every RB will have a great yards per catch than yards per carry, its an incredibly significant boost to value regardless. case study: tim hightower. finished as the #15 RB last year in PPR despite having only 143 carries. i'm not sure what his finish was in standard scoring as i don't play it (a little help?), but i'd estimate it was around 24-30, making him a very nice RB2 in PPR, and a decent RB3/Flex in standard.

good discussion tho FBGs. it's getting to that time of the year, and that is awesome!

 

[DoubleG]

1). regarding Best's YPC.... i like the above-average 4.8 you started with. if you just go with league average, its a cop-out. Best has speed, and plays more than half his games indoors on turf. you gotta call it like you see it with rookies who have no track record to tweak, and that requires going out on a limb. sure it's just guessing, but giving him the league average is just guessing as well without using your intuition.

2). regarding this whole "he won't get 300 carries" argument: i hear ya. there's less than a half dozen guys next year who figure to get 300+, so beyond them it's not a crucial factor in determining a players value. here's what is: receptions. i'd love to see the intelligent minds that roam this board work their magic with these numbers. for example, in the past 3 years, what's the average number of receptions for the top 10 backs? as carries go down virtually league wide, i'd say receptions have either gone up or at least remained steady.

obviously receptions are valuable in PPR, but theyre even valuable in standard scoring. because virtually every RB will have a great yards per catch than yards per carry, its an incredibly significant boost to value regardless. case study: tim hightower. finished as the #15 RB last year in PPR despite having only 143 carries. i'm not sure what his finish was in standard scoring as i don't play it (a little help?), but i'd estimate it was around 24-30, making him a very nice RB2 in PPR, and a decent RB3/Flex in standard.

good discussion tho FBGs. it's getting to that time of the year, and that is awesome!

Actually in our league (non PPR) he was RB17 (but we have a bonus for either 110+ yard of receiving or rushing - which he did twice) - otherwise he would have been RB19. The 10 TDs and 1200 all purpouse yards count the same in standard or PPR.

 

[Tanner9919]

Whenever a RB is being discussed in a fantasy football forum (especially a rookie RB like Mathews or Best), some will love his prospects for the upcoming season -- and others will bag on him for various reasons. It usually goes something like this:

Chatter #1: "Dude I'm sky-high on this kid, he's got top-10 fantasy RB written all over him."

Chatter #2: "I don't know, I just don't see it. Can he stay healthy? Besides, he's not gonna get 300 carries."

He's probably not going to get 300 carries, no matter who it is. Only a handful of RBs will! It's so rare, and as a benchmark it's not pertinent to your prognostication. After the perceived 3-4 workhorse RBs are gone, you shouldn't be concerned with 300 carries. In fact, 4000-yard passers are more common than 300-carry RBs these days!

2009:

Chris Johnson 358 carries

Thomas Jones 331

Steven Jackson 324

Adrian Peterson 314

M. Jones-Drew 312

Cedric Benson 301

2008:

Michael Turner 376

Adrian Peterson 363

Clinton Portis 342

Matt Forte 316

Ryan Grant 312

2007:

Clinton Portis 325

Edgerrin James 324

Willie Parker 321

LaDainian Tomlinson 315

Thomas Jones 310

LenDale White 303

In the 3-year span from 2007-2009 there were 17 300-carry RBs. (By comparison, there were 22 4000-yd passers! It's a different era.)

In the 3-year span from 2001-2003 there were 32 300-carry RBs. That's about double the recent total.

You don't need 300 carries, or even close to that amount, to be a top-10 RB anymore. Jeez, Ricky Williams was the 7th-best fantasy RB last year in most leagues. He only had 241 carries!

Example: Here's my 2010 projection for a certain RB that I love, "Player X"...

214 carries - 1,097 yards - 4.8 per carry - 8 rush TDs - 29 catches - 263 rec yds - 2 rec TDs

Not a big workload. The 214 carries suggests a platoon like at least 25 NFL offenses will have -- or -- he gets nicked and misses a couple games. Either way, he's not even close to 300 carries. But, based on recent fantasy indexes, those stats will slip him into the top-10 RBs. He won't get 300 carries. Who cares? Heck, he's likely no higher than a 6th-round pick this summer... pending the fantasy herd's preseason microscope (a 50- or 60-yard scamper in August vaults him into the 3rd round ).

300 carries? Dude, 240 carries would be icing on the cake!

By the way, Player X is Jahvid Best.

I think when projecting guys for 300 carries, look at teams that:

a) don't use RBBC

b) have a coaching staff that basically wrote the book on successful , 300-carry RBs

That would be Ryan Matthews with the SD coaching staff..

Turner already saying he's going to give RM 250 carries..never set foot on the field,never seen him play vs. pros, and already he's saying '250 carries'? RM will get upwards of 300 with ease..this guy is going to be a workhorse, it's all Turner has ever done as a coach - one guy gets loads of carries..

looking at Minnesota, it would be tough for ADP to reach the 300 carry plateau with Gerhart in town.

but your point is well taken in that a RB with a high YPC avg doesn't need to hit the 300+ mark...

I think people throw out the 300+ yard comment because thats the old school reasoning of what a RB should do , even though the league is largely RBBC ..what they're really saying is workhorse RB

 

[Obie Wan]

I'm sorry this post has NOTHING to do with football. But I thought this was hilarious.People reading this thread5 Members: The Real Yoda, TheEmpire, Jedi Knight

the force is strong with this one

 

[Cassius]

I don't think people mean that a RB literally won't get 300 carries when they say this. Pretty sure it's just shorthand for saying a guy isn't going to be an every-down, all purpose workhorse. Maybe we should start a thread explaining that RB's are not actually horses.

 

[Shutout]

Also a very solid post...4.8 ypc might be a touch high to project...what would be more realistic for Best? 4.2? 4.5?

This is why drafting by talent is the way to go. Follow the talent and the #'s will follow. I'm not going to avoid Spiller and take Mathews just because Spiller has to compete with more RBs and Mathews doesn't. If I think Spiller is better (which I do), then he's going to eventually earn the touches and do more with them than his counterparts.

I agree with the theme of your post but I absolutely believe you can't just go with "follow the talent". When we say talent, we by and large base it on production...on a different level of play...and that is dangerous. Some of the most productive players ever in college have not translated to the pros. Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Lawrence Phillips, Heath SHuler, Andre Ware, Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis, Ron Dayne (all time leading rusher in college)...the list goes on for miles of guys that were super talented but the other factors bit them and they didnt pan out. AND, it changes..even at the NFL level. For instance, whatever the consenus thought on Anthony Thomas was when he came into the league, people were either surprised or thought they were dead on when he rushed for a lot of yards as a rookie. But then he disappeared as the situaiton changed in Chicago..and then he went to a different team with yet another situaiton and went into the witness protection program. Did his talent leave him so fast? Not likely. Maybe some physical ABILITY, and definitely the opportunities and situaiton, but the talent, no. If your play guitar and you have that talent to listen and play; you don't lose your talent. Your ears may go deaf and your hands may have arthritis, and you may play poorly after that, but you still have the talent. Point being, I believe the situation/opportunity is absolutely at least 50% of the equation in these things.

 

[xenith]

Great discussion FBGs!!

As with most things in life, I believe the answer is somewhere in the middle of Talent vs. Opportunity.

These are typically the logical groupings I'm lookin for:

Great Talent + Great Opportunity = Top Tier RBs (maybe lookin at 6-8 of these guys year in year out, so if you miss out you better get 2 of the next group or a super stud QB and WR)

Great Talent + ? Opportunity = Mid Tier RBs

Potential Talent + Potential Opportunity = Sleeper RBs who could win your league!

I skipped some groups, such as 'Good Talent + Good Opportunity = Steady RB2', but these types are typically way overdrafted imo, as folks seem to think the opportunity alone will lead to a great RB. Not so I say. I tend to try and focus on value at RB these days. Few years ago I would load up early and often, but times have changed boys n girls. You can win with 1 stud RB plus fine choices at QB/WR, and if you happen to hit a surprise RB2/3, you're gonna whip some ###!!

Happy hunting!

 

[Aardvarks]

Good post

 

[Truman]

'Curse of 300'

 

[griff321]

Some good stuff in this thread, but it also seems like some are trying to over minimalize an important aspect in evaluating. To me when it comes to a rookie RB, great talent and opportunity go hand in hand. For instance if I look at a guy and say to myself, "he is just not a good enough blocker to be trusted in a large number of that teams offensive plays" so "X" will not be as attractive of a prospect in a redraft. While opportunity isn't the entire picture when it comes to evaluating talent, it is certainly a major aspect and to ignore it would be a mistake. To me the bottom line when it comes to Best is he plays for the Lions. Their o-line is a joke and they have to play last years top two rush Ds four times. Sure Best could carve up Maryland, Minnesota(I've seen HS JV squads play better D), Eastern Washington, and Washington State, but then you look at games like Oregon, Oregon St., and USC where he was TERRIBLE. I don't think he'll ever be an every down back.

looking at Minnesota, it would be tough for ADP to reach the 300 carry plateau with Gerhart in town.

Here is a great instance where Tanner9919 used "new high pick in town theory" to convince himself of something that has a slim probability of happening given the overwheming evidence to the contrary. e.g.: In the age of Purple Jesus the Vikings have been a run first team, in the three years A.D. has been here we have been in the top ten for rush attempts per game, [2007-#6(30.9), 2008-#3(32.4), 2009-#9(29.2)] so the opportunity is there for a RBBC to still give 300+ to the lead dog. In that period of time A.D. played in front of C.T., a RB that most scouts feel has the talent to be a starter on almost any NFL team. Coaches have already stated that Toby was brought in to help fill the role of the departed Taylor. Odds are Toby will not be as well rounded as C.T. in year one, at the very best Gerhart will be as good as C.T., so we could use what C.T.'s impact was as a "perfect storm" scenario model. I think even that would be pushing it because C.T.'s niche was blocking and catching the ball, and those are areas that have consistently been shown to limit the number of plays a rookie is involved in, even if the player is a more talented runner then the #1. In A.D.'s ROY season where he was very rarely used on passing plays because of his poor blocking/recieving skills and he missed two games to injury, A.D. had 238 carries to CT's 157. To me 2009 shows that even in a year where many factors work against A.D. to reach that 300+ carries(fumbles, large early leads where starters are pulled, nagging injuries, missing his "second gear" most of the season, poor o-line blocking, poor lead blocking, an offense that admittingly passed a lot more then they ever expected, and a new dynamic rookie in Percy), he still has 314 carries for 1,383 yards and 18 TDs. Also of note is that even though his carries went down by 49 from '08 to '09, he caught 28 more passes(21 in '08 and 49 in'09).If anything A.D. has a better chance of his carries/touches going UP this year...but at the same time his TD total has a good chance to normalize and come down a few.