High-Risk Series - Part I RB Sleepers (2 Viewers)

[Matt Waldman]

My latest column and part I of my high-risk series...see below for more info.

The following is something I mentioned in a post this weekend and I think it's a good lead into my next month of Gut Check Columns. When I made the move to Footballguys.com one of the first things I wanted to do was explore new and/or riskier strategies because when I think about what I want out of a fantasy web site is someone pusing the envelope for my benefit. This is my aim to do for you.

In serpentine drafts, tight (value) play is really the safest, because I think people fall in line a bit more just to the pace and structure of the draft. [The downside is it can be] like that scene in the movie Dead Poet's Society where Robin Williams has the kids walk the courtyard and within 10 seconds they are all conforming to a specific pace and style of walking. I think serpentine drafts can suck people into that same type of thing....

This is why in the past couple of seasons I've really been interested in exploring more aggressive, "high-risk" strategies. As I mentioned earlier, I'm writing a high-risk strategy series in my Gut Check columns. I'm basing these on 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 K serpentine leagues.

Part 1 Targeting Sleeper RBs: This is a high-risk approach where you ignore most of the RBs projected in the top-24 and target guys right now with ADPs in rounds 6-10 about a 1-3 rounds earlier than this "street value". I'll discuss which RBs I think are great candidates for this approach. If you are successful, you should be able to acquire three top-12 quality WRs, and at least an elite TE or elite QB (if not both). I display three different mocks where the teams are not even using the typical Stud RB opening with one of the teams using this approach.

Part 2 Drafting to Avoid the "ADP pace" that I described with the move reference or "Drafting like you're in an auction when everyone else is drafting serpentine." (Kind of like the fox in the henhouse): While projections are very important, I discuss how you can select players based on specific prerequisites that narrow your draft list of eligible players to choose from (the risk), but it also creates and different "ADP Pace" to follow that if you use the right kind of prerequisites you find yourself drafting with the mentality of an auction drafter with everyone else waiting for players to drop. If you have a good bead on player talent and situation, this can be an enormously successful approach.

I'll still considering other options for parts three and four, but I'm thinking one of them will be focused on drafting by looking at quality games-consistency or performance and using an AVT-based method to project consistency.

 

[CaptainHook]

Awesome. This is exactly the type of article I've been looking for.

I tihnk 2009 is the perfect season for an approach like this and I love your player analysis. Thank you so much.

 

[CaptainHook]

Would you be willing to explain why jamal lewis isn't one of your targets? I've always made guaranteed carries a pretty big priority when using this kind of strategy because the matchup games that you can play become so much easier. Last year I got TJones based on this line of thinking it really paid off.

Trying to figure out which week the coach will decide to lean on your committee guy has always been a nightmare for me.

 

[gianmarco]

This is a FANTASTIC article. I might join a couple redraft leagues just to employ this strategy and try it out. This would also be ideal in a best ball format.

Well done, sir!!

 

[TaxMan]

very nice write-up. Just wondering why Jonathan Stewart is not in the list. I believe his current ADP is a 5th/6th rounder similar to other backs on the list.

 

[puckalicious]

Very sound strategy. Every year it seems I draft around 9/10 and get a Lynch type that gets out performed by my 2nd/3rd RB's selected in round 4 or later. I might as well take a WR in the first two rounds, maybe this is the year.

 

[grantsa4]

Matt - awesome article - thanks. Will you be doing the same for any other positions? QB, WR, TE?

 

[Matt Waldman]

Would you be willing to explain why jamal lewis isn't one of your targets? I've always made guaranteed carries a pretty big priority when using this kind of strategy because the matchup games that you can play become so much easier. Last year I got TJones based on this line of thinking it really paid off.Trying to figure out which week the coach will decide to lean on your committee guy has always been a nightmare for me.

Lewis could very well turn out to be one of these players that qualify, but he didn't as of this writing. His ADP really wasn't low enough (although you could sub him for LJ in the mock I provided where I began picking the RBs earlier) and I still have concerns about Cleveland's surrounding talent. The offense isn't a high-scoring dynamic unit unless the QB play returns to 2007 form and the defense isn't on the level of a Tennessee, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore. I think KC, Dallas, and Cincy have enough offensive talent to keep the RBs in the game. Combine those things and what appears to be Mangini's attraction to smaller scat backs (Harrison) and there are just enough factors that took him off my list. Again, the ADPs will change between now and August so you may have a whole new set of players between rounds 6-10 to consider. I tried to pick guys that I think their ADP will remain stable, but injury or a dazzling training camp performance could elevate them quickly.As for Stewart, he's also a very obvious candidate. I love Stewart's ability - he was my top-rated RB in my Rookie Scouting Portfolio (2008) - but the ankle issues he's having in camp are something I still want to monitor. I just don't think he has a chance to beat out a back that averaged 5 ypc, scored 25 times, and remained healthy in 2008. He'll need to get an opportunity due to injury. In contrast, most of these other backs will get the opportunity to win the job or see enough time to be a fantasy force solely on their talent because no one is in front of them with this kind of dominant season. Glad you guys like the piece. Part II is focused on drafting by profiling. I think this high-risk strategy can be effective if you can cope with narrowing your pool of talent for the upside of acquiring key players you believe have the situation to succeed beyond their ADP. It's also an effective way to draft if you find yourself in a situation where you can't access your rankings or draft materials. In this upcoming piece I'll reveal some QB, WR, and TE sleepers who fit some of these example profiling methods.

 

[grantsa4]

Looking forward to it - thanks Matt

 

[Reaper]

Good article...

I like the line of thinking and have used it alot - Especially in the Survivor leagues where you can pick a bunch of these high risk guys as well as backups like Leon and Fred Jackson and never have to actually pick one to start...

But, there's no way I'd pass on LT at the end of round 1...After LT though, I'd fill other spots and then grab these guys for RB2 and depth - But, again, depending of what value falls.... It's not like you go into a draft thinking "I'm using the High Risk RB Approach" IMO, it's more like, IF NEED BE, I can always fall back on a High risk RB draft....

You can still get off that "Adp Pace" by grabbing 3 Wr's in a row in rounds 2-4 and / or a TE or QB...

Again, a lot of people have been doing this lately in the Mock Draft forum survivors.

 

[Tanner9919]

good stuff, took a long time to piece that together I'm sure!



a few weird things I noticed, however:

you have BOTH Rice and McGahee listed as sleepers.. draft both and you're more likely stuck with a RBBC backfield if they both stay healthy..for a keeper league, Rice is the man you want..

I"m not so sure that Felix Jones qualifies as 'sleeper' material.EVERYONE knows about this kid..he'll go quite a bit higher in most drafts then what you give him credit for..by the time drafts roll around in late August, Jones could be a mid-2nd rounder ( I kid you not!)

I think I might've added Brandon Jacobs to the sleeper list this season, my gut tells me the Giants are going to force-feed him the ball , early & often..

Curiously, you don't have Larry Johnson listed

only once in his career has he avg'd less than 4.3 ypc, and that wasn't last season, it was 2007! he avg'd 4.5 for the lousy 2008 Chiefs..now they get a better QB, a 3-rd yr wr ready to breakout ( Bowe), and a new coaching staff hell-bent on opening up the offense...something tells me LJ is good for at least 300 carries, 1350 yards, 10+ tds. and he's all but fallen off the map in fantasy circles, people have left him for dead...

another sleeper, going on the Fred Taylor 'age is not a worry' type of deal, is Thomas Jones..everyone seems to be pushing this Shon Greene kid...Like Taylor, TJ has some life left in him, and a very good O-line to work behind..don't count him out just yet.

 

[goateebird]

I followed this strategy last season, with great results, but not in the way I expected. My sleeper RBs (Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones) exploded and carried my team, whereas my stud WRs (Randy Moss, TO, Reggie Wayne, Ochocinco) somewhat underperformed.

However, I have to say though that I have a big criticism of the rankings turnover stats that are presented, though this may have already been discussed in the past. If I understand that table correctly, that's showing whether RBs ranked in the top 12 (or whatever) at the end of a season reappear there at the end of the next season. It's pretty clear that they don't always do, and that there's a lot of turnover in the top 10, top 20, etc.

But I think drafters inherently know this, because you'll find that ADP doesn't match up with the previous season's rankings at all. Look at this year: MJD in the top 3, Brady and Moss in the top 3 of their respective positions, etc. Obviously those players didn't finish there last season, but people are projecting some turnover there. People don't draft solely based on last year's results, people look at last year's results then rank based on their projections for the coming season. Because of that, looking at turnover in the rankings from season to season is pretty flawed, if you're looking for justification for a risk-based draft. Context changes so often in the offseason that the previous season's rankings are often useless by the time a draft rolls around.

When thinking about risk, what's much more important in my mind is how well ADP correlates with final end-of-season results. Then, you can target the positions that carry a lot of variance, and could therefore contain elite sleepers in the lower rounds. Fortunately, I've already done this analysis for the 2003-2008 seasons. The exact numbers are on a different computer unfortunately, but basically the results were:

Quarterbacks - ADP is practically useless in predicting final rankings. Even after throwing away outliers like Brady last season, the player drafted as QB19 is just as likely to finish in the top 3 as QB3. For instance, see Warner, Cassell, and Matt Ryan last season.

Runningbacks - ADP was a fantastic predictor of final rankings. Outside of the Football Outsiders Curse of 370 candidates, most runningbacks more or less live up to their draft slot.

Wide Receivers - ADP was a moderate predictor of final rankings.

What that says to me is that relying on sleeper RBs is extremely risky, certainly riskier than at any other position. I suppose that's the whole point of the article, that risk ultimately wins championships, but the argument could be made that taking risks with QBs or WRs is much more fruitful.

So that's my critique of the piece, and I'd be thrilled to hear everyone's comments. Like I said earlier, I followed the RB sleeper model last season with great results, and I may do it again, so I hope a good rebuttal to my argument can be made.

Edit: Just read the first post again, and it sounds like you might address issues with ADP later? I'll be very interested to read the rest of this series, keep up the good work!

 

[Matt Waldman]

good stuff, took a long time to piece that together I'm sure!



a few weird things I noticed, however:

you have BOTH Rice and McGahee listed as sleepers.. draft both and you're more likely stuck with a RBBC backfield if they both stay healthy..for a keeper league, Rice is the man you want..To clarify, I view Rice more as the guy and McGahee as the handcuff in case of injury. I listed McGahee because it's still June and by August he's in a good situation to be a candidate for this strategy if Rice gets hurt or doesn't look good when the pads are on.

I"m not so sure that Felix Jones qualifies as 'sleeper' material.EVERYONE knows about this kid..he'll go quite a bit higher in most drafts then what you give him credit for..by the time drafts roll around in late August, Jones could be a mid-2nd rounder ( I kid you not!) He could be a second rounder by then if injury strikes or it's made very clear in some fashion that Jones will be on track for the carries I expect. If so, he no longer qualifies. It's why he's not as high as Rice and Mendenhall on the list. He might turn out to be everyone's favorite breakout back.

I think I might've added Brandon Jacobs to the sleeper list this season, my gut tells me the Giants are going to force-feed him the ball , early & often.The problem is I defined these backs on my list as players with a low enough ADP (from two mock sites) that you can pick him between rounds 6-10. Jacobs will not fall that far unless he's hurt and then it's a completely different situation.

Curiously, you don't have Larry Johnson listed

only once in his career has he avg'd less than 4.3 ypc, and that wasn't last season, it was 2007! he avg'd 4.5 for the lousy 2008 Chiefs..now they get a better QB, a 3-rd yr wr ready to breakout ( Bowe), and a new coaching staff hell-bent on opening up the offense...something tells me LJ is good for at least 300 carries, 1350 yards, 10+ tds. and he's all but fallen off the map in fantasy circles, people have left him for dead...See the Jacobs explanation...LJ is in one of my mocks as a variation of this strategy where you cheat a bit and draft an RB earlier if conditions are right for it. LJ doesn't have an ADP near the 6th round.

another sleeper, going on the Fred Taylor 'age is not a worry' type of deal, is Thomas Jones..everyone seems to be pushing this Shon Greene kid...Like Taylor, TJ has some life left in him, and a very good O-line to work behind..don't count him out just yet.See above...all of these guys you mention are possibilities if their ADPs fall, but I don't see it likely. If they fall in your drafts as low as round five, I'd be ecstatic...

 

[Matt Waldman]

I followed this strategy last season, with great results, but not in the way I expected. My sleeper RBs (Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones) exploded and carried my team, whereas my stud WRs (Randy Moss, TO, Reggie Wayne, Ochocinco) somewhat underperformed.

However, I have to say though that I have a big criticism of the rankings turnover stats that are presented, though this may have already been discussed in the past. If I understand that table correctly, that's showing whether RBs ranked in the top 12 (or whatever) at the end of a season reappear there at the end of the next season. It's pretty clear that they don't always do, and that there's a lot of turnover in the top 10, top 20, etc.

But I think drafters inherently know this, because you'll find that ADP doesn't match up with the previous season's rankings at all. Look at this year: MJD in the top 3, Brady and Moss in the top 3 of their respective positions, etc. Obviously those players didn't finish there last season, but people are projecting some turnover there. People don't draft solely based on last year's results, people look at last year's results then rank based on their projections for the coming season. Because of that, looking at turnover in the rankings from season to season is pretty flawed, if you're looking for justification for a risk-based draft. Context changes so often in the offseason that the previous season's rankings are often useless by the time a draft rolls around. Fair criticism for sure. I use the turnover argument because it is a contributing factor even if not the main reason. I agree people don't draft solely on last year's results, but I it is a contributing factor.

When thinking about risk, what's much more important in my mind is how well ADP correlates with final end-of-season results. Then, you can target the positions that carry a lot of variance, and could therefore contain elite sleepers in the lower rounds. Fortunately, I've already done this analysis for the 2003-2008 seasons. The exact numbers are on a different computer unfortunately, but basically the results were:

Quarterbacks - ADP is practically useless in predicting final rankings. Even after throwing away outliers like Brady last season, the player drafted as QB19 is just as likely to finish in the top 3 as QB3. For instance, see Warner, Cassell, and Matt Ryan last season.

Runningbacks - ADP was a fantastic predictor of final rankings. Outside of the Football Outsiders Curse of 370 candidates, most runningbacks more or less live up to their draft slot.

Wide Receivers - ADP was a moderate predictor of final rankings.

What that says to me is that relying on sleeper RBs is extremely risky, certainly riskier than at any other position. I suppose that's the whole point of the article, that risk ultimately wins championships, but the argument could be made that taking risks with QBs or WRs is much more fruitful.Absolutely. I'm just exploring ways to push the envelop in a direction that is high-risk, high reward. It's not a method I would recommend for every draft, but there are some situations where it might be useful to take the risk.

So that's my critique of the piece, and I'd be thrilled to hear everyone's comments. Like I said earlier, I followed the RB sleeper model last season with great results, and I may do it again, so I hope a good rebuttal to my argument can be made.

Edit: Just read the first post again, and it sounds like you might address issues with ADP later? I'll be very interested to read the rest of this series, keep up the good work!Again, thanks for the feedback - good stuff!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hi Matt,

This is a very nice article but I think it's a product of the here and now. Back in the 90s and early 2000s the superback was dominant. Now with a 2 back system everywhere there is no need to reach for RBs when so many with a lot of talent are readily available. The idea of loading up on stud WRs early, perhaps getting a top5 QB and TE, then drafting a number of RBs is a good strategy this year.

I also think there are a number of RBs who simply are down because of last year's numbers.

I find Ronnie Brown-3rd Pierre Thomas-4th/5th, and then a number of 2nd year backs like Mendenhall, Rice, Felix, McFadden, all these guys could have had Slaton like numbers last year and they would be going in the 1st round.

DWill is also a great example of how a talented back can go from being a 7th/8th round pick one year to a mid 1st the next. Same back, same talent, but he finally was able to showcase it.

There will likely be a lot of RBs taken in the 12-30 range that will play far better than where they were drafted.

 

[Matt Waldman]

MOP, good points and this easily could be a here and now strategy. I'm not looking for a timeless draft approach as much as I am exploring strategies that you can have in your repertoire. This way you can explore the landscape and decide if there's a path you want to take that is worth the risk based on these conditions.

 

[Black]

Excellent topic. I have been wanting to try to put into words what I have been doing the last couple of years ('do the opposite drafts) and am currently seeing in my mocks, which is when I go WR early and scoop a bunch of mid-tier RBs, I like my team much better.

I do think you have to choose QB or TE early...do both, and you miss the bus on top WR.

 

[renesauz]

This is really a very well written piece. I've employed these concepts for years, but oddly enough, mostly in regards to WR's.

I've found that I tend to be much better at finding the value WR's then I am at the value RB's. It's consistantly led me to players like Boldin, Cotchery, and White before they blew up.

 

[Team Legacy]

Awesome. This is exactly the type of article I've been looking for.

I tihnk 2009 is the perfect season for an approach like this and I love your player analysis. Thank you so much.

So we can expect this type of team from you come September Perry?