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Hillis Value on the Rise? (1 Viewer)

the kid dishes out and absorbs a lot of hits...a lot of peoples' guts are telling them it cant' last...not at a workorse pace anyhow.
Would a lot of people's guts be telling them Peyton is likely to get injured if he was playing what he has played most of his career, a fullback? Don't you actually hit more as a fullback?
 
dude has produced whenever he was given the chance....some nice games in Denver, etc...some people forget that and act like last year was some type of fluke....it wasn't...he is a very solid RB....his ability to catch the ball increases his value.....it shouldn't be a surprise to people if he puts up another big season on an improving team....he will continue to be the focal point of this offense....

on a negaitive note....while his schedule is pretty nice this year (NFC West/AFC South) and he may put up some huge games during the season, CLE does have one of those crazy type schedules that some teams get (and I hate to see) where they play both games against their division rivals within a few weeks of each other.....and for CLE it happens to be down the stretch against two of usually the toughest defenses in the league....

13-vs BAL

14-@ PIT

15-@ARZ

16-@BAL

17-vs PIT

while that last game against PIT won't factor into many/some leagues, that is still not the most appealing playoff schedule......especially if you buy into the fact that Hillis will be enetering his "wearing down" phase....and 3 road games during what are the 3 playoff weeks for most leagues....with the one in the middle being all the way across the country...

in summary I could see a year much like last year.....tears it all all year and then slows down a little come playoff time.....

 
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If there's a situation more polarizing than the Cle running back situation this year I dont know what it is. Seems to me there are some clear lines being drawn between the Hillis believers / nonbelievers but we really should be talking more about probabilities.

Hardesty simply cant get healthy. The Browns spent a lot to get him but for now he's not in the equation. That leaves Hillis and the newly signed B Jackson. You dont have to be a Jackson believer to know that he signed where he thought he'd get the best chance to start. And it's hard to find a guy behind the 2 of them that looks to be a threat this year. One thing is for sure and that's whoever runs behind that off line should do pretty well.

I personally dont believe a RB in a fullbacks body can stave off the competition for long in todays NFL. The need for speed is too great and seems to get lost in the discussion here.

While I wont be drafting Hillis I will be looking to get Jackson somewhere after round 10 as the backups are being sniped. Simply put, his probability is higher than most backups. Now you believers dont have to agree to that but you should go into the draft aware that there are many guys who feel the same as I do. As far as I'm concerned Jackson is just a notch below Michael Bush and Tolbert. But way in front of a guy like Gerhart.
isnt tolbert a fullback type body and runner?
 
fwiw, Hardesty is practicing full speed in pads today from what I've heard (it's a closed indoors practice so this is coming from the media). I've also heard Hardesty has been held out of practices so far just to be cautious.

 
I don't see people bumping down Blount because of his playing style or Turner because of his. Sure Hillis might not have a long career, but in redraft leagues, who cares?

 
This is a handicapping game. I'm dealing in probabilities, cost and value. The probability of a fullback type to repeat great numbers as RB 2 yrs in a row in todays NFL are low. The cost to acquire said player is high. The value lost to that high pick (should it not pan out) could easily put my team from EV+ to EV-.
Hillis ran a 4.55 combine 40 and jumps over tacklers. More than a "fullback type". This is the improper valuation you have on Hillis. You are playa hatin' on a 250 pound white guy, disregarding his mad skills, oline and opportunity.His running style may give him fewer years in the NFL, but discounting him this year will be a big mistake at his ADP. The cost to acquire Hillis is low and has a nice ceiling.

 
dude has produced whenever he was given the chance....some nice games in Denver, etc...some people forget that and act like last year was some type of fluke....it wasn't...he is a very solid RB....his ability to catch the ball increases his value.....it shouldn't be a surprise to people if he puts up another big season on an improving team....he will continue to be the focal point of this offense....on a negaitive note....while his schedule is pretty nice this year (NFC West/AFC South) and he may put up some huge games during the season, CLE does have one of those crazy type schedules that some teams get (and I hate to see) where they play both games against their division rivals within a few weeks of each other.....and for CLE it happens to be down the stretch against two of usually the toughest defenses in the league....13-vs BAL14-@ PIT15-@ARZ16-@BAL17-vs PITwhile that last game against PIT won't factor into many/some leagues, that is still not the most appealing playoff schedule......especially if you buy into the fact that Hillis will be enetering his "wearing down" phase....and 3 road games during what are the 3 playoff weeks for most leagues....with the one in the middle being all the way across the country...in summary I could see a year much like last year.....tears it all all year and then slows down a little come playoff time.....
:goodposting:
 
The cost to acquire Hillis is low and has a nice ceiling.
This is the part I don't get. How is RB14 low-cost? He's a second round pick. Would folks draft him ahead of Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles, Rice? If so, then sure, he's got a nice ceiling. If not, he's right about where he should be.
 
The cost to acquire Hillis is low and has a nice ceiling.
This is the part I don't get. How is RB14 low-cost? He's a second round pick. Would folks draft him ahead of Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles, Rice? If so, then sure, he's got a nice ceiling. If not, he's right about where he should be.
I think it comes from the fact that in most scoring formats last year he was a top 3 performer.....and the point of this thread and some of the previous ones about Hillis is WHY is at RB14 instead of in the top 5.....Foster "came out of nowhere" last year and had a huge year, but he hasn't dropped into the teens of RB's....why has Hillis....and why do people think he was a fluke compared to the other top backs.....?as I mentioned earlier, people seem to forget that Hillis was very productive even when given time in DEN.....it continued big time when he became the featured back....one could argue that you have even more of a track record to go with on a guy like Hillis as opposed to someone like Foster....I thinkk most people are expecting a regression from both Foster and Hillis, but they think Foster's regression will still have him with top 5 numbers, but Hillis's regression will be so much that it drops him to RB14......so why is that...?
 
The cost to acquire Hillis is low and has a nice ceiling.
This is the part I don't get. How is RB14 low-cost? He's a second round pick. Would folks draft him ahead of Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles, Rice? If so, then sure, he's got a nice ceiling. If not, he's right about where he should be.
I think it comes from the fact that in most scoring formats last year he was a top 3 performer.....and the point of this thread and some of the previous ones about Hillis is WHY is at RB14 instead of in the top 5.....Foster "came out of nowhere" last year and had a huge year, but he hasn't dropped into the teens of RB's....why has Hillis....and why do people think he was a fluke compared to the other top backs.....?as I mentioned earlier, people seem to forget that Hillis was very productive even when given time in DEN.....it continued big time when he became the featured back....one could argue that you have even more of a track record to go with on a guy like Hillis as opposed to someone like Foster....I thinkk most people are expecting a regression from both Foster and Hillis, but they think Foster's regression will still have him with top 5 numbers, but Hillis's regression will be so much that it drops him to RB14......so why is that...?
Fair points, thanks.
 
I don't see people bumping down Blount because of his playing style or Turner because of his. Sure Hillis might not have a long career, but in redraft leagues, who cares?
Turner has proven he can endure. Blount isn't being taken as high.IMHO, Hillis runs more physical than both.
 
Guys that have a fullback build and get tons of contact per run dont tend to last in the league.
Jamal Anderson- 5-11, 237- 4 seasons >1,000 rushingJerome Bettis- 5-11, 252- 8 > 1,000Mike Alstot- 6-1, 248, missed 4 games in 7 years averaging 11-17 touches per game. Jamal Lewis- 5-11 240,7 > 1,000Deuce McCallister- 6-1 232, 4 >1,000Marion Butts, 6-1, 248 missed 4 games over 6 years averaging 12-20 touches per game.Deuce Staley, 5-11 242, 3>1,000Michael Turner has been pretty good the past 3 years. Other Punishing runners- Franco Harris, Eddie George, Marion Barber, Adrian Peterson all managed to put way more than 1 consecutive good season under their belts. Even injury prone guys like Brandon Jacobs have been able to produce more than 1 consecutive year. I don't know what list you are looking at but I am betting it is filled with guys who were FBs and were forced into being RBs for a season. Some will have gone back to being FBs and some will have been at an age where they only would have had a year or two of solid expected RB life left anyway. And some, just like RBs, will have been 1 and done. But I see no reason to think a 25 year old who is assured the starting RB job with 1 year of running this style should be considered a major risk.
 
The more I read/hear, the happier I am that I traded for this guy in my dynasty league. I wouldn't hesistate to take him in any redraft leagues with your 2nd round pick. He has potential 1st round production and I see him at least living up to his 2nd round draft slot.

 
'Stinkin Ref said:
'-jb- said:
The cost to acquire Hillis is low and has a nice ceiling.
This is the part I don't get. How is RB14 low-cost? He's a second round pick. Would folks draft him ahead of Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles, Rice? If so, then sure, he's got a nice ceiling. If not, he's right about where he should be.
I think it comes from the fact that in most scoring formats last year he was a top 3 performer.....and the point of this thread and some of the previous ones about Hillis is WHY is at RB14 instead of in the top 5.....Foster "came out of nowhere" last year and had a huge year, but he hasn't dropped into the teens of RB's....why has Hillis....and why do people think he was a fluke compared to the other top backs.....?as I mentioned earlier, people seem to forget that Hillis was very productive even when given time in DEN.....it continued big time when he became the featured back....one could argue that you have even more of a track record to go with on a guy like Hillis as opposed to someone like Foster....

I thinkk most people are expecting a regression from both Foster and Hillis, but they think Foster's regression will still have him with top 5 numbers, but Hillis's regression will be so much that it drops him to RB14......so why is that...?
The bolded portion of this is silly. Arian Foster outscored the rest of the RB field by so much that even a decent regression in stats will still leave him as a top 5 RB (I actually do think he will struggle and won't be a top 5 RB, but that is another argument). The same can not be said of Hillis, who despite having a great season and finishing among the top 5, was clumped together point-wise with several of the RB's behind him. This means that a regression in his stats would land him in the RB 8 to RB 15 territory, right where he is being drafted at.I actually do think Hillis will regress for a few reasons- the punishment and obvious wearing down he experienced last year, the fact that Cleveland will be much improved (in my opinion) and thus much more interested in lessening his workload to keep him fresh later in the season, and the fact that the offense will not be so completely anemic and 1 dimensional that EVERYTHING runs through Hillis as it did last season. It seems to go against common sense, but this is 1 situation where I believe an improved offense is actually going to hurt the RB. Based on what I saw last year, a lot of his value was derived from the fact that a huge portion of the plays were targetting him, whether it was via run, pass, or dump off after getting pressure/inability for receivers to get open. With a year of maturity under Colt McCoy and the drafting of a potential impact WR, I see the passing game opening up a bit, leaving less dump offs and screens for Hillis, which was a big part of his value last year.

 
The probability of a fullback type to repeat great numbers as RB 2 yrs in a row in todays NFL are low.
Hillis ran a 4.55 combine 40 and jumps over tacklers. More than a "fullback type".
And yet last year he had only 6 carries that went for over 20 yards.By comparison, Foster had 15, McFadden had 18, and Charles had 13.

Hillis is a hugely talented bowling ball I would not want to see rolling my way. But if your league awards more points for longer touchdowns his value is diminished.

 
I don't see people bumping down Blount because of his playing style or Turner because of his. Sure Hillis might not have a long career, but in redraft leagues, who cares?
Exactly.....every big RB takes punishment.
 
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The probability of a fullback type to repeat great numbers as RB 2 yrs in a row in todays NFL are low.
Hillis ran a 4.55 combine 40 and jumps over tacklers. More than a "fullback type".
And yet last year he had only 6 carries that went for over 20 yards.By comparison, Foster had 15, McFadden had 18, and Charles had 13.

Hillis is a hugely talented bowling ball I would not want to see rolling my way. But if your league awards more points for longer touchdowns his value is diminished.
So?McCoy only had 7

S. Jackson only had 7

Gore only had 6

Ray Rice only had 4

Should I bump Ray Rice down since he only had 4 runs over 20 yds?

 
I'm totally in the dark about this guy. Like you I can't get a handle on his value. If I'm correct his playoff picture this year doesn't look rosey either.
if i remember correctly, one of his best games was against the Baltimor defense last year, so it is hard to predict how his playoff picture looks until we see if the passing game is effective at all or not
 
It seems to go against common sense, but this is 1 situation where I believe an improved offense is actually going to hurt the RB. Based on what I saw last year, a lot of his value was derived from the fact that a huge portion of the plays were targetting him, whether it was via run, pass, or dump off after getting pressure/inability for receivers to get open. With a year of maturity under Colt McCoy and the drafting of a potential impact WR, I see the passing game opening up a bit, leaving less dump offs and screens for Hillis, which was a big part of his value last year.
:goodposting: this and the brutal schedule Cleveland has in weeks 13-16 are fair arguments against Hillis. i have him this year for very good value (10th rounder) so i am committed to him, but he may be trade bait before he hits that horrible stretch run. what were the schedule makers thinking?
 
If there's a situation more polarizing than the Cle running back situation this year I dont know what it is. Seems to me there are some clear lines being drawn between the Hillis believers / nonbelievers but we really should be talking more about probabilities.

Hardesty simply cant get healthy. The Browns spent a lot to get him but for now he's not in the equation. That leaves Hillis and the newly signed B Jackson. You dont have to be a Jackson believer to know that he signed where he thought he'd get the best chance to start. And it's hard to find a guy behind the 2 of them that looks to be a threat this year. One thing is for sure and that's whoever runs behind that off line should do pretty well.

I personally dont believe a RB in a fullbacks body can stave off the competition for long in todays NFL. The need for speed is too great and seems to get lost in the discussion here.

While I wont be drafting Hillis I will be looking to get Jackson somewhere after round 10 as the backups are being sniped. Simply put, his probability is higher than most backups. Now you believers dont have to agree to that but you should go into the draft aware that there are many guys who feel the same as I do. As far as I'm concerned Jackson is just a notch below Michael Bush and Tolbert. But way in front of a guy like Gerhart.
You really don't like white running backs, do you? WHY would you think of Toby Gerhart, who is locked into an impossible situation behind AP? How is a career mediocrity like Jackson "way in front" of a guy who was a tremendous college RB and hasn't had any chance to show what he can do yet in the NFL? Btw, how did you complete your post without taking a swipe at Danny Woodhead? FYI, and the edification of those not versed in racial codewords, I bolded the other particularly offensive and ridiculous parts of your post.

The doubts surrounding Peyton Hillis are 100% related to the fact he happens to be the first white RB in 25 years to gain 1000 yards in the NFL. If ANY black RB had the kind of season he did last year, the jock sniffers on ESPN and every fantasy owner in the world would be drooling over him. They'd point out that he accomplished all that in spite of the horrendous offense he played on. Btw, the Browns' offensive line is not the 1970s Miami Dolphins' unit. They have a great left tackle and very good center. Unless they improve the right side of the line, they are only an average unit overall. Again, there is a clear effort on the part of everyone to credit someone else for Hillis' performance last season. If that line was so great, how come Harrison sucked before he left and the legendary Mike Bell couldn't do anything behind it?

Those who ignore the herd mentality, which is to wildly underrate Hillis, will profit handsomely from grabbing him at a spot where he'll vastly outperform those being selected around him.
:lmao: It has nothing to do with the cle offense being led my a 2nd year qb. This is funny...

 
If there's a situation more polarizing than the Cle running back situation this year I dont know what it is. Seems to me there are some clear lines being drawn between the Hillis believers / nonbelievers but we really should be talking more about probabilities.

Hardesty simply cant get healthy. The Browns spent a lot to get him but for now he's not in the equation. That leaves Hillis and the newly signed B Jackson. You dont have to be a Jackson believer to know that he signed where he thought he'd get the best chance to start. And it's hard to find a guy behind the 2 of them that looks to be a threat this year. One thing is for sure and that's whoever runs behind that off line should do pretty well.

I personally dont believe a RB in a fullbacks body can stave off the competition for long in todays NFL. The need for speed is too great and seems to get lost in the discussion here.

While I wont be drafting Hillis I will be looking to get Jackson somewhere after round 10 as the backups are being sniped. Simply put, his probability is higher than most backups. Now you believers dont have to agree to that but you should go into the draft aware that there are many guys who feel the same as I do. As far as I'm concerned Jackson is just a notch below Michael Bush and Tolbert. But way in front of a guy like Gerhart.
You really don't like white running backs, do you? WHY would you think of Toby Gerhart, who is locked into an impossible situation behind AP? How is a career mediocrity like Jackson "way in front" of a guy who was a tremendous college RB and hasn't had any chance to show what he can do yet in the NFL? Btw, how did you complete your post without taking a swipe at Danny Woodhead? FYI, and the edification of those not versed in racial codewords, I bolded the other particularly offensive and ridiculous parts of your post.

The doubts surrounding Peyton Hillis are 100% related to the fact he happens to be the first white RB in 25 years to gain 1000 yards in the NFL. If ANY black RB had the kind of season he did last year, the jock sniffers on ESPN and every fantasy owner in the world would be drooling over him. They'd point out that he accomplished all that in spite of the horrendous offense he played on. Btw, the Browns' offensive line is not the 1970s Miami Dolphins' unit. They have a great left tackle and very good center. Unless they improve the right side of the line, they are only an average unit overall. Again, there is a clear effort on the part of everyone to credit someone else for Hillis' performance last season. If that line was so great, how come Harrison sucked before he left and the legendary Mike Bell couldn't do anything behind it?

Those who ignore the herd mentality, which is to wildly underrate Hillis, will profit handsomely from grabbing him at a spot where he'll vastly outperform those being selected around him.
:lmao: It has nothing to do with the cle offense being led my a 2nd year qb. This is funny...
As opposed to the stellar QB play he succeeded under last season?
 
'Stinkin Ref said:
'-jb- said:
The cost to acquire Hillis is low and has a nice ceiling.
This is the part I don't get. How is RB14 low-cost? He's a second round pick. Would folks draft him ahead of Peterson, Foster, Johnson, Charles, Rice? If so, then sure, he's got a nice ceiling. If not, he's right about where he should be.
I think it comes from the fact that in most scoring formats last year he was a top 3 performer.....and the point of this thread and some of the previous ones about Hillis is WHY is at RB14 instead of in the top 5.....Foster "came out of nowhere" last year and had a huge year, but he hasn't dropped into the teens of RB's....why has Hillis....and why do people think he was a fluke compared to the other top backs.....?as I mentioned earlier, people seem to forget that Hillis was very productive even when given time in DEN.....it continued big time when he became the featured back....one could argue that you have even more of a track record to go with on a guy like Hillis as opposed to someone like Foster....I thinkk most people are expecting a regression from both Foster and Hillis, but they think Foster's regression will still have him with top 5 numbers, but Hillis's regression will be so much that it drops him to RB14......so why is that...?
Great posting. I've been wondering the exact same thing all offseason.
 
His issue is that he clearly wore down last year near the end.

So, he is probably one of the best (if not the best) values you could find as a #2 Rb this year to GET you to the playoffs, but he probably won't help you win your playoffs because the risk here is not owning Hillis in September; its owning him in December when Jackson or a healthy Hardesy or whoever starts eating into the production.

I would also expect the Browns to be a little improved in the passing game so that could help in some cases and hurt in others.

Overall, I expect far less consistency from a ff standpoint this year and while there will be high points, I think anyone drafting him expecting RB1 production throughout the ENTIRE year will be disappointed.
See, this is where I think there's actually some room for optimism. The scenario you described last year was exactly what played out, and it happened because he was the ENTIRE offense. Everyone knew it, and he carried a load that wore him down.With a slightly better passing game and some other threat in the backfield to assume SOME of the load early on, he can be more effective for a longer period IMO. And you know if anyone's getting the GL carries, it's him.

I'm cautiously optimistic, and would definitely be looking to buy / draft at the right price. As an owner who added him at league min in most of my contract leagues last year, I'm not selling unless I get an offer that reflects his upside, because people WANT to price him at his floor and it's just not worth "cashing in" for that possibility of the upside.

 
In Hillis' favor

- The line

- the OC

- Hardesty not being able to stay healthy and I dont think much of Jackson.

Against Hillis

- The lack of a vertical game. The Browns wideouts might collectively be the worst in the NFL

- No history of being able to sustain this production. Theres fear he was a one hit wonder.

I can see Hillis' numbers being around the same as last year but not better. The only problem with that is we cant get him as cheap this year. :) Still prolly going a little lower than he should.

 
People who say Hillis will decline are being racist. There's no other explanation.

 
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People who say Hillis will decline are being racist. There's no other explanation.
I don't think Hillas been that good from the get-go. I think what we've had here is a little social concern in the NFL. I think the media has been very desirous that a white running back do well.
 
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People who say Hillis will decline are being racist. There's no other explanation.
:goodposting: But, honestly, this "wore down" talk is being overblown. The Steelers must have also played a "worn down" Darren McFadden, as he got the same treatment Hillis did.I have gone back and watched every carry that Hillis had. If Hillis wore down, so did the offensive line - the holes weren't there against some very good defenses. I don't hear many people crying Chicken Little with Ahmad Bradshaw, whose numbers slipped.
 
I'm in a 12 team PPR league with a bunch of FBGs and I just took Hillis at 3.04. I think that's amazing value and the perfect place to take him. My other options included an elite TE, DJax or Wayne, or Bradshaw.

Enough with the wear down BS! It seems that a lot of very good RBs hit a bit of a wall in their first full year with a heavy load and then go on to have monster second years.

 
I'm in a 12 team PPR league with a bunch of FBGs and I just took Hillis at 3.04. I think that's amazing value and the perfect place to take him. My other options included an elite TE, DJax or Wayne, or Bradshaw.Enough with the wear down BS! It seems that a lot of very good RBs hit a bit of a wall in their first full year with a heavy load and then go on to have monster second years.
There's still time to trade for Hardesty.
 
I'm in a 12 team PPR league with a bunch of FBGs and I just took Hillis at 3.04. I think that's amazing value and the perfect place to take him. My other options included an elite TE, DJax or Wayne, or Bradshaw.Enough with the wear down BS! It seems that a lot of very good RBs hit a bit of a wall in their first full year with a heavy load and then go on to have monster second years.
There's still time to trade for Hardesty.
I'll let the hawks feed on the mice. I'll be over here taking down the big prey.
 
I'm in a 12 team PPR league with a bunch of FBGs and I just took Hillis at 3.04. I think that's amazing value and the perfect place to take him. My other options included an elite TE, DJax or Wayne, or Bradshaw.Enough with the wear down BS! It seems that a lot of very good RBs hit a bit of a wall in their first full year with a heavy load and then go on to have monster second years.
I just got Hillis at 3.9 in the FBG IDP Survivor league I am in, with 2 staffers and ALL FBG members as the owners.Pretty happy - he went right behind Ingram and right before Best as RB14. It is a PPR league, so even if I only get 75% of what he had last year, it will be a worthwhile pick.
 
I think it's blatantly obvious that Hillis' race is effecting the way everyone perceives him.
Yes. Duh. Whether or not people want to admit it. He's way outside of the norm when it comes to successful running backs, and I don't think it's at all racist to wonder if he can repeat last year's performance given his genetic disadvantage.
What genetic traits are we talking about here?
 
'Short Corner said:
I think it's blatantly obvious that Hillis' race is effecting the way everyone perceives him.
Yes. Duh. Whether or not people want to admit it. He's way outside of the norm when it comes to successful running backs, and I don't think it's at all racist to wonder if he can repeat last year's performance given his genetic disadvantage.
What genetic traits are we talking about here?
No Extra bones in his ankles, right? :sarcasm: (in case anyone thinks I am serious...)
 
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Hardesty not playing tonight. Not suprising to me...they want him to probably get a few reps in the 3rd or 4th game and then have him ready for the regular season.

 

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