Hines Ward - 1st ballot Hall of Famer? (2 Viewers)

[David Yudkin]

Using the "Top 5 years" theory to evaluate peak performance, here were the top players that played at some point over the past 10 years. To some, this would reflect a player being dominant or elite in their prime seasons. While they may not be great peers or contemporaties for Ward, they are at least close to guys that played in his era. To clarify once again, I added up the best 5 seasons in each category to get to the total listed. No rushing or passing totals are included.

Player, Rec, Rec Yds, Rec TD, Fantasy points in PPR scoring

Jerry Rice	540	7922	84	1836.2
Marvin Harrison	564	7688	68	1740.8
Randy Moss	480	7322	85	1722.2
Terrell Owens	456	6718	72	1559.8
Cris Carter	526	6305	66	1552.5
Torry Holt	499	7397	48	1526.7
L Fitzgerald	486	6478	53	1451.8
Isaac Bruce	458	7047	48	1450.7
Reggie Wayne	484	6649	48	1436.9
Chad Johnson	462	6870	45	1419
Herman Moore	487	6431	48	1418.1
Tim Brown	464	6583	48	1410.3
Jimmy Smith	484	6790	38	1391
Rod Smith	473	6491	44	1386.1
Andre Johnson	484	6649	39	1382.9
Joe Horn	437	6289	45	1335.9
Hines Ward	477	5706	47	1329.6
Anquan Boldin	459	6044	42	1315.4
Steve Smith	439	6262	41	1311.2
Derrick Mason	460	5759	38	1263.9
Eric Moulds	430	6023	36	1248.3
Muhsin Muhammad	424	5705	41	1240.5
K McCardell	441	5784	35	1229.4
Key Johnson	425	5636	40	1228.6
Donald Driver	418	5849	37	1224.9
Antonio Freeman	357	5586	50	1215.6
Terance Mathis	401	5335	44	1198.5
Santana Moss	400	5649	37	1186.9
TJ Housh	451	5069	36	1173.9
Joey Galloway	349	5479	46	1172.9
Plaxico Burress	353	5560	42	1161
Wes Welker	499	5223	23	1159.3
Roddy White	401	5362	37	1159.2
Tony Martin	371	5517	39	1156.7
Lav Coles	425	5384	32	1155.4
Amani Toomer	374	5731	33	1145.1
Marques Colston	369	5097	40	1118.7
Darrell Jackson	350	5250	40	1115
Terry Glenn	370	5425	30	1092.5
BMarshall	413	5033	28	1084.3
Greg Jennings	322	5222	40	1084.2
Jake Reed	341	5443	30	1065.3
Johnnie Morton	367	5163	29	1057.3
D Alexander	313	5323	35	1055.3

Bottom line, Ward at present ranks 17th on that list but will be passed by several current players very shortly to fall farther down the list once they play another season or two.

I realize, the HOF and fantasy are world's apart, but there are a number of players that statistically had better peaks than Ward did. It's not the hall of stats, but there certainly is a measure or component of that to a candidate's candidacy. As already spelled out, Ward has other things on his resume that may make up for his lake of statistical dominance. That's why they vote for the HOF, and we'll have to see what the voters thing when his time comes . . .

 

[Adebisi]

Hey, guess what? The fact that there is so much back-and-forth debate in this thread should tell you that no, he's obviously not a 1st ballot HOFer.

We wouldn't be having this discussion for someone like Joe Montana or Deion Sanders or Jerry Rice.

 

[The Berry Man]

Weird, only Steeler fans thinks he belongs in the Hall.

 

[David Yudkin]

Mike Greenberg on Mike & Mike this morning: Hines Ward will be in the Hall of Fame and now will be on Dancing With The Stars.

 

[zed2283]

Mike Greenberg on Mike & Mike this morning: Hines Ward will be in the Hall of Fame and now will be on Dancing With The Stars.

Sportscasters, like most FBGs, think that everyone will be in the Hall of Fame.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yeah, it is funny how some of those ESPN guys never pay attention to HOF voting. I remember Tom Jackson two years ago saying that Carolina's Steve Smith would be a lock for the Hall. I was like, really?

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

 

[duaneok66]

Mike Greenberg on Mike & Mike this morning: Hines Ward will be in the Hall of Fame and now will be on Dancing With The Stars.

Sportscasters, like most FBGs, think that everyone will be in the Hall of Fame.

great post.

 

[Bri]

I grew up around a HS coach that put FBs at WR for blocking. Parcells was adamant about his WRs blocking well and he was the darling of NJ back then. Shannon Sharpe was a terrible blocker as a rook. Meshawn was benched and/or pulled from games for missing blocks as a rook despite being the top pick. There's just so much about bad blocking WRs that I've come across in the news over the years. I don't know how to quantify (who I believe is) the greatest blocking WR ever, but it deserves some serious attention. It's an integral part of the game and he was the best ever at it. I figure WRs block more often than they catch the ball too. Ramble....really gotta get some love for his blocking.

Chrebet took these hits that no man should get up from, but somehow he did and was almost invigorated by them. That was toughness. For me, Ward took it to the next level for WRs. The press celebrated these primadonna WRs that took plays off and caught with alligator arms at times and...it might be a different scenario if Ward was praised more than a guy like Moss or Owens. I don't know, it might be that Ward was awesome while Moss irritated everyone in Oakland...I'm not sure, but somehow I grew to love Ward's tough style of play at WR more and more.

Not to forget to mention the whiner, oh my was he a whiner then, that played opposite Ward in the beginning.

All we talk about is catching and yards and TDs and all that. The voters are former football players and writers well immersed in the game. They're going to recall his blocking and appreciate it. How much, I don't know, but I feel confident they'll adore him for that.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

atsselfonback:Says he will play out the last two years of his contract too, which even at minimal production will likely land him on about 1050-12700-90. This is the first year he really didn't put up solid stats, and a lot of that has to do more with the fact that the Steelers have younger, more dynamic options at WR rather than the fact that he can't play. They really only use him on short routes where they need to pick up a first down or kill clock these days, but he's still a fairly effective option.

 

[Jason Wood]

His compiled numbers and his RINGS make his case fairly strong, even though I see next to no way he'll be "1st ballot" as though that means anything.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

His compiled numbers and his RINGS make his case fairly strong, even though I see next to no way he'll be "1st ballot" as though that means anything.

1st ballot, not a prayer. But I think eventually he gets in. The Hall loves a winner.Cris Carter - 1101-13899-130...8-time Pro Bowler, 1st team All-Pro twice, no rings, not in HOFMichael Irvin - 750-11904-65...5-time Pro Bowler, 1st team All-Pro once, 2nd team once, 3 rings, in HOFHines Ward - 1000-12083-85... 4-time Pro Bowler, 2nd team All-Pro twice, 2 rings, 1 SB MVP, TBDI would say his profile is much closer to Irvin's than Carter's, and the fact that Irvin is in and Carter isn't pretty clearly demonstrates what the voters covet, and it's not stats above all else.

 

[David Yudkin]

His compiled numbers and his RINGS make his case fairly strong, even though I see next to no way he'll be "1st ballot" as though that means anything.

As I posted elsewhere . . .Will Ward get in ahead of . . .Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, or Henry Ellard? (Maybe even throw Jimmy Smith on to that list at the minimum as a candidate.) How about current players (if there is a long wait for Ward and these guys keep it up)?Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, or Wes Welker?Ward's raw career numbers are similar to Derrick Mason (1000-12083-85 vs 943-12061-66). Ward's career totals are also similar to Irving Fryer's (851-12785-84).I get that Ward played on a 2-time SB winning team. But does that make him that much better than the other guys mentioned here? Yes, he could also block.For those convinced Ward is a mortal lock HOFer, please order the names listed above as to who will get in before him and where he falls on the pecking order at WR. I think Ward stands a better change getting in through the backdoor by way of the veteran's committee. But when stacked up against the backlog of receivers waiting to get in (or who will be worthy while he's waiting), I think there should be a lot more doubt in many people's minds than some folks are willing to concede.

 

[Shlon]

Hall of Famer but not a first ballot.

 

[The_Man]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

6 years later, he's at/below the bare minimum of the benchmarks you set. 1000 catches, just barely 12,000 yards, well below 100 TDs. I agree that the only way he gets into the HOF is by the Veterans Committee, when his reputation will count for more than his actual onfield achievements.Art Monk had to wait forever despite owning 3 Super Bowl rings, and setting the record as the NFL's all-time leader in catches. Ward came along 20 years later in a pass-happy era, and his numbers still don't compare favorably to Monk's.

 

[Jason Wood]

His compiled numbers and his RINGS make his case fairly strong, even though I see next to no way he'll be "1st ballot" as though that means anything.

As I posted elsewhere . . .Will Ward get in ahead of . . .Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, or Henry Ellard? (Maybe even throw Jimmy Smith on to that list at the minimum as a candidate.) How about current players (if there is a long wait for Ward and these guys keep it up)?Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, or Wes Welker?Ward's raw career numbers are similar to Derrick Mason (1000-12083-85 vs 943-12061-66). Ward's career totals are also similar to Irving Fryer's (851-12785-84).I get that Ward played on a 2-time SB winning team. But does that make him that much better than the other guys mentioned here? Yes, he could also block.For those convinced Ward is a mortal lock HOFer, please order the names listed above as to who will get in before him and where he falls on the pecking order at WR. I think Ward stands a better change getting in through the backdoor by way of the veteran's committee. But when stacked up against the backlog of receivers waiting to get in (or who will be worthy while he's waiting), I think there should be a lot more doubt in many people's minds than some folks are willing to concede.

I don't think he SHOULD be a Hall of Famer, but I think he will be, yes. Ahead of quite a few of those players you mentioned, unfortunately.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

6 years later, he's at/below the bare minimum of the benchmarks you set. 1000 catches, just barely 12,000 yards, well below 100 TDs. I agree that the only way he gets into the HOF is by the Veterans Committee, when his reputation will count for more than his actual onfield achievements.Art Monk had to wait forever despite owning 3 Super Bowl rings, and setting the record as the NFL's all-time leader in catches. Ward came along 20 years later in a pass-happy era, and his numbers still don't compare favorably to Monk's.

At the benchmarks I suggested he would hit by 35 or 36, he's 34 now. And that was in response to a bunch of people saying he wouldn't be able to play at a high level for another 5 years and reach those numbers, clearly they were incorrect.Explain why Irvin is in the Hall and Carter isn't, then apply those same principles to Ward and you'll see why I believe he will make it. The Hall loves FOOTBALL PLAYERS. They induct guys that pass the sniff test as champions/competitors. It's not the fantasy football Hall of Fame, the Irvin/Carter example is a perfect comparison.. if they're looking at numbers, there is absolutely no justification for inducting Irvin and not Carter.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

His compiled numbers and his RINGS make his case fairly strong, even though I see next to no way he'll be "1st ballot" as though that means anything.

As I posted elsewhere . . .Will Ward get in ahead of . . .Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, or Henry Ellard? (Maybe even throw Jimmy Smith on to that list at the minimum as a candidate.) How about current players (if there is a long wait for Ward and these guys keep it up)?Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, or Wes Welker?Ward's raw career numbers are similar to Derrick Mason (1000-12083-85 vs 943-12061-66). Ward's career totals are also similar to Irving Fryer's (851-12785-84).I get that Ward played on a 2-time SB winning team. But does that make him that much better than the other guys mentioned here? Yes, he could also block.For those convinced Ward is a mortal lock HOFer, please order the names listed above as to who will get in before him and where he falls on the pecking order at WR. I think Ward stands a better change getting in through the backdoor by way of the veteran's committee. But when stacked up against the backlog of receivers waiting to get in (or who will be worthy while he's waiting), I think there should be a lot more doubt in many people's minds than some folks are willing to concede.

How I think it will go (not necessarily who I believe to be better/worse players) :Marvin HarrisonTerrell OwensHines WardAndre ReedCris CarterIsaac BruceTim BrownRandy MossTorry HoltHenry EllardJimmy Smith

 

[Ghost Rider]

At the benchmarks I suggested he would hit by 35 or 36, he's 34 now. And that was in response to a bunch of people saying he wouldn't be able to play at a high level for another 5 years and reach those numbers, clearly they were incorrect.Explain why Irvin is in the Hall and Carter isn't, then apply those same principles to Ward and you'll see why I believe he will make it. The Hall loves FOOTBALL PLAYERS. They induct guys that pass the sniff test as champions/competitors. It's not the fantasy football Hall of Fame, the Irvin/Carter example is a perfect comparison.. if they're looking at numbers, there is absolutely no justification for inducting Irvin and not Carter.

Hines Ward is no Michael Irvin. Ward hasn't played at a high level the past five years. He only broke the 1,000-yard mark twice, he has averaged 5 touchdowns a season, and his YPC has been smaller than it was earlier in his career (11.6 since 2007).

 

[Evilgrin 72]

At the benchmarks I suggested he would hit by 35 or 36, he's 34 now. And that was in response to a bunch of people saying he wouldn't be able to play at a high level for another 5 years and reach those numbers, clearly they were incorrect.Explain why Irvin is in the Hall and Carter isn't, then apply those same principles to Ward and you'll see why I believe he will make it. The Hall loves FOOTBALL PLAYERS. They induct guys that pass the sniff test as champions/competitors. It's not the fantasy football Hall of Fame, the Irvin/Carter example is a perfect comparison.. if they're looking at numbers, there is absolutely no justification for inducting Irvin and not Carter.

Hines Ward is no Michael Irvin. Ward hasn't played at a high level the past five years. He only broke the 1,000-yard mark twice, he has averaged 5 touchdowns a season, and his YPC has been smaller than it was earlier in his career (11.6 since 2007).

"High level" is a relative term, people insinuated he'd drop off a cliff after age 30 or so. You also neglect to mention that the second best season of Ward's career in both receptions and yardage (95-1167-6) came just two years ago at age 33. Irvin scored 65 TDs in 12 seasons, so he only averaged barely over 5 TDs a year for his entire career, not just his "age 30+" years.One correction I do have to make is that I said Ward was 34 earlier, he's 35.

 

[Sidewinder16]

As I posted elsewhere . . .Will Ward get in ahead of . . .Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, or Henry Ellard? (Maybe even throw Jimmy Smith on to that list at the minimum as a candidate.)How about current players (if there is a long wait for Ward and these guys keep it up)?Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, or Wes Welker?... I think Ward stands a better change getting in through the backdoor by way of the veteran's committee. But when stacked up against the backlog of receivers waiting to get in (or who will be worthy while he's waiting), I think there should be a lot more doubt in many people's minds than some folks are willing to concede.

With each passing year it gets more and more likely that Brown, Reed and Ellard will need the veteran's committee more than Ward will (although Brown and Reed, along with Carter still have a shot at getting selected in the 2012 class). Otherwise, it's somewhat of a bogus argument against Ward to conjure up a list of names that may or may not be on a semi-finalist/finalist list with Ward, IMO. But to somewhat fulfill your request for a list, of the players already retired or most likely to retire about the same time as Ward, I would select Harrison, Owens, Moss and Carter ahead of Ward. I think there is a decent chance that Carter, Moss and/or Harrison could already be in by the time Ward is even eligible. I would be neither surprised nor disappointed if Brown, Reed, Bruce or Holt got in ahead of Ward; all have good to decent HOF resumes. I don't think Ellard or Smith come close to having as good a HOF resume as Ward.

I get that Ward played on a 2-time SB winning team. But does that make him that much better than the other guys mentioned here? Yes, he could also block.

Do those things make him that much worse? Those things are simply part of his legacy to professional football, and should be considered. Is there a good reason to discount the Super Bowl teams he was on or his impact as one of the better blocking receivers in the game?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

84-1017-7.2

That's Ward's average season (16 starts) over 14 years

82-1296-7.1

That's Irvin's average season (16 starts) over 12 years

So, Ward averaged slightly more receptions and TDs, where Irvin averaged significantly more yards, which is in line with both players' strengths/responsibilities in their respective offenses. Irvin has one more ring, and one more Pro Bowl appearance, Ward has the Super Bowl MVP, his reputation as a feared blocker, and the fact that he's put up those numbers over two more seasons than Irvin did. To say that "Ward is no Irvin" is a bit of a stretch, IMO, I'd say they match up fairly evenly in terms of overall career accomplishments.

 

[Ghost Rider]

At the benchmarks I suggested he would hit by 35 or 36, he's 34 now. And that was in response to a bunch of people saying he wouldn't be able to play at a high level for another 5 years and reach those numbers, clearly they were incorrect.Explain why Irvin is in the Hall and Carter isn't, then apply those same principles to Ward and you'll see why I believe he will make it. The Hall loves FOOTBALL PLAYERS. They induct guys that pass the sniff test as champions/competitors. It's not the fantasy football Hall of Fame, the Irvin/Carter example is a perfect comparison.. if they're looking at numbers, there is absolutely no justification for inducting Irvin and not Carter.

Hines Ward is no Michael Irvin. Ward hasn't played at a high level the past five years. He only broke the 1,000-yard mark twice, he has averaged 5 touchdowns a season, and his YPC has been smaller than it was earlier in his career (11.6 since 2007).

"High level" is a relative term, people insinuated he'd drop off a cliff after age 30 or so. You also neglect to mention that the second best season of Ward's career in both receptions and yardage (95-1167-6) came just two years ago at age 33. Irvin scored 65 TDs in 12 seasons, so he only averaged barely over 5 TDs a year for his entire career, not just his "age 30+" years.One correction I do have to make is that I said Ward was 34 earlier, he's 35.

That doesn't say much when 1,167 is your 2nd best receiving season ever. Oddly enough, since becoming a starter in 1999, Ward has more seasons under 1,000 than he does over, so I can see why 1,167 might be worth bragging about. And I know you will say that stats don't matter that much, but they do to a lot of people. The Carter/Irvin example is not necessarily a good one, since you are comparing one of the triples on the 90s Dallas Dynasty to a guy who was clearly a me-first player and had major character issues. The only character issue guys Ward will be competing with from his era will be Moss and Owens, and both of them are so far ahead of Ward, that even if they are forced to wait a few years to get in, they will still get in, while Ward probably will not. Simply put, compared to his peers of today, he simply doesn't stack up. When talking about the best WRs since Ward came into the league (1998), Harrison, Moss and Owens are obviously 1, 2 and 3, and then there are a handful of guys who are clearly better than Ward - Bruce, Holt (both of whom also have a ring, plus the better numbers, plus having been a part of the Greatest Show on Turf), Fitz, etc., and by the time Ward retires and is actually eligible, guys like Megatron, Roddy White and even Welker will have blown past Ward.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Hines Ward is no Michael Irvin.

He's no Jerry Rice or David Tyree, either. None of that changes the goals of the HoF or the criteria HoF voters look at. EG is right. The Hall doesn't induct players by dumping stats into a formula. Players are inducted by a group of football writers that follow the game, and it's players, on a daily basis and who eventually end up sitting in a room together and debating the impact a player had on the history of the game.

 

[Ghost Rider]

84-1017-7.2That's Ward's average season (16 starts) over 14 years82-1296-7.1That's Irvin's average season (16 starts) over 12 yearsSo, Ward averaged slightly more receptions and TDs, where Irvin averaged significantly more yards, which is in line with both players' strengths/responsibilities in their respective offenses. Irvin has one more ring, and one more Pro Bowl appearance, Ward has the Super Bowl MVP, his reputation as a feared blocker, and the fact that he's put up those numbers over two more seasons than Irvin did. To say that "Ward is no Irvin" is a bit of a stretch, IMO, I'd say they match up fairly evenly in terms of overall career accomplishments.

Not true for Ward. He averages 863 yards a season. And if you are only counting games in which he started, you can't then extrapolate the numbers counting the years he didn't start. Even if you wipe out his rookie season when he didn't start at all, he still only averages 911 yards a season. And averaging 6.5 touchdowns a season over 13 seasons since becoming a starter is not Hall worthy by any stretch of the imagination. Lastly, comparing Ward to Irvin is again a case of comparing him to someone from a different era. You would be best to make comparisons to Hall worthy players from his era (very late 90s/00s).No matter how you slice it, Ward is not a Hall of Famer. Not even close. Or we can also put in Rod Smith for his two rings, his superior numbers (when taking seasons played and top production into account), and his rep as a great blocker as well?

 

[David Yudkin]

One of these days I will actual FINISH my HOF WR article (like a fine wine, it takes time to age to perfection). But in it I address the concept of using a player's 5 best seasons in each main category to get a better take on how dominant he really was.

For some of the players mentioned in this thread, here's what the numbers using 5 peak years would show (each category gets recalculated, so in reality it considers more than just 5 years).

Harrison 564 7688 68Holt 499 7368 48Moss 480 7322 85Irvin 449 7093 41Bruce 458 7047 48Ocho 462 6870 45Fitz 486 6797 53Jsmith 484 6790 38Owens 456 6718 72Ssmith 440 6654 41Wayne 484 6649 48AJohnson 484 6649 39Brown 464 6583 48Ellard 370 6539 35Rsmith 473 6491 44Carter 526 6305 66Welker 554 6105 31Boldin 459 6044 42Megatron 366 5872 49Fryer 379 5805 39Mason 460 5759 38Reed 401 5732 42Ward 477 5706 47
Ward does not match up well against any of these guys when looking at peak production. IMO, Ward will have to look at other less tangible parts of his resume to make a convincing case for the HOF (blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc.).

 

[Kenny Powers]

HOFer but not 1st ballot

 

[Evilgrin 72]

84-1017-7.2That's Ward's average season (16 starts) over 14 years82-1296-7.1That's Irvin's average season (16 starts) over 12 yearsSo, Ward averaged slightly more receptions and TDs, where Irvin averaged significantly more yards, which is in line with both players' strengths/responsibilities in their respective offenses. Irvin has one more ring, and one more Pro Bowl appearance, Ward has the Super Bowl MVP, his reputation as a feared blocker, and the fact that he's put up those numbers over two more seasons than Irvin did. To say that "Ward is no Irvin" is a bit of a stretch, IMO, I'd say they match up fairly evenly in terms of overall career accomplishments.

Not true for Ward. He averages 863 yards a season. And if you are only counting games in which he started, you can't then extrapolate the numbers counting the years he didn't start. Even if you wipe out his rookie season when he didn't start at all, he still only averages 911 yards a season. And averaging 6.5 touchdowns a season over 13 seasons since becoming a starter is not Hall worthy by any stretch of the imagination. Lastly, comparing Ward to Irvin is again a case of comparing him to someone from a different era. You would be best to make comparisons to Hall worthy players from his era (very late 90s/00s).No matter how you slice it, Ward is not a Hall of Famer. Not even close. Or we can also put in Rod Smith for his two rings, his superior numbers (when taking seasons played and top production into account), and his rep as a great blocker as well?

For both players, I divided career #s by games started and then multiplied by 16. Ward has averaged more catches and more TDs per 16 starts over his career than Irvin did. So, if averaging 6.5 TDs a season over 13 years (counting all games, not just starts) is not Hall-worthy, than Irvin's 5.9 TDs per season over 11 seasons DEFINITELY isn't. You also have to take into account that Ward was never a deep threat, which almost all of these other guys mentioned were/are. That was never his game, he's a possession receiver and his job his whole career has been to aid the run game, and make big catches when needed (3rd downs, red zone, etc.) It's not as sexy, but you have to consider how well a player has done what is asked of him rather than just look at raw numbers.Besides, I don't buy into the notion that a player's prime is all that is to be considered. Performing over a great length of time is also something to be valued, IMO. People use the term "compiler" all the time, as if playing for a long time is something that devalues a player's stats, but the bottom line is that if you're still out there and starting/producing at an advanced age, then you're probably a pretty damned good player. A guy like Terrell Davis, who had a super-high peak but nothing else (unfortunately) does not belong in the HOF over a guy like Bettis, who was an often solid, sometimes elite performer for well over a decade. That's just my opinion, and just to compare a Bronco to a Steeler because, well, why not? And P.S. - I love Rod Smith and wouldn't cry if he was inducted either. Guy was great for a long time, but he's just a (slightly) lesser version of Ward, career-wise. 3 Pro Bowls to Ward's 4, 1 2nd team All-Pro to Ward's 2, no SB MVP. Had a better peak, but didn't contribute for quite as long.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

One of these days I will actual FINISH my HOF WR article (like a fine wine, it takes time to age to perfection). But in it I address the concept of using a player's 5 best seasons in each main category to get a better take on how dominant he really was.For some of the players mentioned in this thread, here's what the numbers using 5 peak years would show (each category gets recalculated, so in reality it considers more than just 5 years).

Harrison	564	7688	68Holt     	499	7368	48Moss	        480	7322	85Irvin	        449	7093	41Bruce	        458	7047	48Ocho	        462	6870	45Fitz	        486	6797	53Jsmith	        484	6790	38Owens	        456	6718	72Ssmith	        440	6654	41Wayne	        484	6649	48AJohnson        484	6649	39Brown	        464	6583	48Ellard	        370	6539	35Rsmith	        473	6491	44Carter	        526	6305	66Welker	        554	6105	31Boldin	        459	6044	42Megatron	366	5872	49Fryer	        379	5805	39Mason	        460	5759	38Reed	        401	5732	42Ward	        477	5706	47

Ward does not match up well against any of these guys when looking at peak production. IMO, Ward will have to look at other less tangible parts of his resume to make a convincing case for the HOF (blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc.).

Yardage-wise, he doesn't, because he's a 12.1 career YPC guy. Unlike just about everyone else on this list, he was never a team's primary deep threat. In # of catches and in TDs, he compares favorably to many of the guys on the list, which is basically a bonus, since his career should (will) be measured by voters in terms of his contribution to his team, the intangibles you mention. 2 rings, a Super Bowl MVP award, his leadership, the fact that he's considered by most to be the best blocking WR ever, etc... Voters will recognize his contributions to winning 2 titles for one of the league's marquee franchises and his reputation will enhance his candidacy. Playing as the possession receiver on the league's most run-heavy team for most of his career may dampen his yardage numbers, but I think that fact will be far less important to HOF voters than it is on a FF message board.

 

[Sidewinder16]

IMO, Ward will have to look at other less tangible parts of his resume to make a convincing case for the HOF (blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc.).

Sorry, but I find it pretty ridiculous to consider things like "blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc." any less real/actual/substantial/definite (i.e. tangible) simply because you can't put them in a nicely formatted table on a message board.

We're not talking about Tony Canadeo or Arnie Herber here (HoFers who 99% of this board haven't even seen a still picture of, let alone watched play). We're talking about players who have played out their careers during the time when 99% of this board has been fanatical about football. These are players who we watch, read about, imitate through Madden, etc. right now. Ward's "intangibles" are every bit as tangible (i.e. real/actual/substantial/definite), and worth considering in a HoF discussion, as his stats.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Haven't seen it mentioned but these are Hines most revealing stats.

Postseason Stats

Hines Ward

17 games

88 receptions

1,181 yards

10 TD

1 SB MVP

For comparison's sake,

Marvin Harrison

16 games

65 receptions

883 yards

2 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, Ward will have to look at other less tangible parts of his resume to make a convincing case for the HOF (blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc.).

Sorry, but I find it pretty ridiculous to consider things like "blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc." any less real/actual/substantial/definite (i.e. tangible) simply because you can't put them in a nicely formatted table on a message board.

We're not talking about Tony Canadeo or Arnie Herber here (HoFers who 99% of this board haven't even seen a still picture of, let alone watched play). We're talking about players who have played out their careers during the time when 99% of this board has been fanatical about football. These are players who we watch, read about, imitate through Madden, etc. right now. Ward's "intangibles" are every bit as tangible (i.e. real/actual/substantial/definite), and worth considering in a HoF discussion, as his stats.

Can anyone measure someone's blocking? How about toughness? How about leadership? How about things like what team you played on (say Steelers vs. Buccaneers)? How about what guys may or may not have said on the sidelines or in the huddle? How about being a good teammate? Or how he played the game?I'm guessing that, no, there is no way to measure any of those things. I am not disputing that Ward may be above the pack at all of those things. But there is no way to review that without people providing way more opinion and speculation that other metrics (ie stas, wins, awards, Pro Bowl selections, etc.).

My point, which seemingly got overlooked, was that statistically Ward was a good but often not elite receiver. No harm in that. But some folks started out on the Ward is a HOFer based on numbers alone and then migrated to him having all the other fuzzy, touchy, feely, tingly qualities that will get him inducted.

Maybe Ward will make it, maybe he won't. I won't lose sleep either way. If he makes it, he was deserving. If he doesn't, I don't think he was robbed.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Can anyone measure someone's blocking? How about toughness? How about leadership? How about things like what team you played on (say Steelers vs. Buccaneers)? How about what guys may or may not have said on the sidelines or in the huddle? How about being a good teammate? Or how he played the game?

I'm guessing that, no, there is no way to measure any of those things. I am not disputing that Ward may be above the pack at all of those things. But there is no way to review that without people providing way more opinion and speculation that other metrics (ie stas, wins, awards, Pro Bowl selections, etc.).

I've seen plenty of different opinions and speculations regarding the metrics. Just because one player has one hard and fast number and another player has a different one doesn't make it's relevance to the discussion any more or less subjective between individuals. And I still reject the notion that supposed "unmeasurables" can't or shouldn't be part of the discussion. Again, this is a contemporary player. We watch the games, highlights and interviews, we read the box scores and game summaries, we check out the twitter feeds and dancing reality shows. There's no reason why Ward's leadership (for example) can't be discussed in the context of a HoF debate.

My point, which seemingly got overlooked, was that statistically Ward was a good but often not elite receiver. No harm in that. But some folks started out on the Ward is a HOFer based on numbers alone and then migrated to him having all the other fuzzy, touchy, feely, tingly qualities that will get him inducted.

Maybe Ward will make it, maybe he won't. I won't lose sleep either way. If he makes it, he was deserving. If he doesn't, I don't think he was robbed.

This, we can agree on.

 

[KentGraham10]

Giants fan here. Ward belongs in the Hall of Fame. When you combine is regular season career and post season career you will see he has a Hall of Fame resume. Stop separating the two and compare his regular season numbers to one guy and his post season numbers to another guy. Compare the entire resume and you will see he belongs in the Hall. And probably first ballot too.

 

[Tau837]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

6 years later, he's at/below the bare minimum of the benchmarks you set. 1000 catches, just barely 12,000 yards, well below 100 TDs. I agree that the only way he gets into the HOF is by the Veterans Committee, when his reputation will count for more than his actual onfield achievements.Art Monk had to wait forever despite owning 3 Super Bowl rings, and setting the record as the NFL's all-time leader in catches. Ward came along 20 years later in a pass-happy era, and his numbers still don't compare favorably to Monk's.

At the benchmarks I suggested he would hit by 35 or 36, he's 34 now. And that was in response to a bunch of people saying he wouldn't be able to play at a high level for another 5 years and reach those numbers, clearly they were incorrect.Explain why Irvin is in the Hall and Carter isn't, then apply those same principles to Ward and you'll see why I believe he will make it. The Hall loves FOOTBALL PLAYERS. They induct guys that pass the sniff test as champions/competitors. It's not the fantasy football Hall of Fame, the Irvin/Carter example is a perfect comparison.. if they're looking at numbers, there is absolutely no justification for inducting Irvin and not Carter.

This is wrong, and I'm pretty sure I've already posted on this earlier in the thread.Irvin averaged over 1400 receiving yards over a 5 year period, during which Dallas won 3 Super Bowls. He was a bubble candidate who got in by having a very strong peak for a team that won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.Carter was on no Super Bowl winners and did not have such a peak. Furthermore, Carter is going to get in, so this comparison doesn't really matter.

 

[Tau837]

His compiled numbers and his RINGS make his case fairly strong, even though I see next to no way he'll be "1st ballot" as though that means anything.

As I posted elsewhere . . .Will Ward get in ahead of . . .Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, or Henry Ellard? (Maybe even throw Jimmy Smith on to that list at the minimum as a candidate.) How about current players (if there is a long wait for Ward and these guys keep it up)?Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, or Wes Welker?Ward's raw career numbers are similar to Derrick Mason (1000-12083-85 vs 943-12061-66). Ward's career totals are also similar to Irving Fryer's (851-12785-84).I get that Ward played on a 2-time SB winning team. But does that make him that much better than the other guys mentioned here? Yes, he could also block.For those convinced Ward is a mortal lock HOFer, please order the names listed above as to who will get in before him and where he falls on the pecking order at WR. I think Ward stands a better change getting in through the backdoor by way of the veteran's committee. But when stacked up against the backlog of receivers waiting to get in (or who will be worthy while he's waiting), I think there should be a lot more doubt in many people's minds than some folks are willing to concede.

How I think it will go (not necessarily who I believe to be better/worse players) :Marvin HarrisonTerrell OwensHines WardAndre ReedCris CarterIsaac BruceTim BrownRandy MossTorry HoltHenry EllardJimmy Smith

Just to be clear, you are addressing the pecking order question, not saying you think all of these players will get in the HOF, nor what order they will get in, right?

 

[Tau837]

With each passing year it gets more and more likely that Brown, Reed and Ellard will need the veteran's committee more than Ward will (although Brown and Reed, along with Carter still have a shot at getting selected in the 2012 class).

at suggesting Brown needs the veteran's committee to get in. He was a finalist in 2010 and 2011, in his first two years of eligibility, and happened to become eligible in the same year that Rice became eligible. Brown is a lock to get in via the normal method, not the veteran's committee.It's also worth noting, I believe it is true that no WR has become a finalist and not ultimately been elected by the regular voters. Unless that trend is broken, that means Brown, Carter, and Reed will all get in. (And Ellard and Jimmy Smith will not... it's probably well past time to bring them up in these discussions.)

 

[Tau837]

84-1017-7.2That's Ward's average season (16 starts) over 14 years82-1296-7.1That's Irvin's average season (16 starts) over 12 yearsSo, Ward averaged slightly more receptions and TDs, where Irvin averaged significantly more yards, which is in line with both players' strengths/responsibilities in their respective offenses. Irvin has one more ring, and one more Pro Bowl appearance, Ward has the Super Bowl MVP, his reputation as a feared blocker, and the fact that he's put up those numbers over two more seasons than Irvin did. To say that "Ward is no Irvin" is a bit of a stretch, IMO, I'd say they match up fairly evenly in terms of overall career accomplishments.

Not true for Ward. He averages 863 yards a season. And if you are only counting games in which he started, you can't then extrapolate the numbers counting the years he didn't start. Even if you wipe out his rookie season when he didn't start at all, he still only averages 911 yards a season. And averaging 6.5 touchdowns a season over 13 seasons since becoming a starter is not Hall worthy by any stretch of the imagination. Lastly, comparing Ward to Irvin is again a case of comparing him to someone from a different era. You would be best to make comparisons to Hall worthy players from his era (very late 90s/00s).No matter how you slice it, Ward is not a Hall of Famer. Not even close. Or we can also put in Rod Smith for his two rings, his superior numbers (when taking seasons played and top production into account), and his rep as a great blocker as well?

This was a right up until the part about Rod Smith. As posted previously in this thread, Ward has surpassed Smith as a HOF candidate. Of course, Smith was never a realistic HOF candidate, so that doesn't say anything about Ward's chances.

 

[Tau837]

IMO, Ward will have to look at other less tangible parts of his resume to make a convincing case for the HOF (blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc.).

Sorry, but I find it pretty ridiculous to consider things like "blocking, toughness, playing on the Steelers, etc." any less real/actual/substantial/definite (i.e. tangible) simply because you can't put them in a nicely formatted table on a message board.

We're not talking about Tony Canadeo or Arnie Herber here (HoFers who 99% of this board haven't even seen a still picture of, let alone watched play). We're talking about players who have played out their careers during the time when 99% of this board has been fanatical about football. These are players who we watch, read about, imitate through Madden, etc. right now. Ward's "intangibles" are every bit as tangible (i.e. real/actual/substantial/definite), and worth considering in a HoF discussion, as his stats.

Of course the "intangibles" like leadership and blocking matter. Otherwise, there would be literally no basis to even discuss Ward as a HOF candidate.The relevant questions become:

1. How much of a gap in receiving numbers (receptions, yards, TDs) and honors/awards (All Pro selections, All Decade team, even Pro Bowl selections) is made up by Ward's intangibles?

2. Why do people believe these intangibles will be largely influential in his HOF candidacy when they did not help him win other honors/awards?

3. Tangent: are there examples of other players who fell short of his peers in both total numbers and peak performance but whose intangibles put him over the top? I don't know the answer, but I'm interested to know.

 

[Tau837]

Haven't seen it mentioned but these are Hines most revealing stats.

Postseason Stats

Hines Ward

17 games

88 receptions

1,181 yards

10 TD

1 SB MVP

For comparison's sake,

Marvin Harrison

16 games

65 receptions

883 yards

2 TD

Simple questions:1. Do you think Ward is more deserving of the HOF than Harrison?

2. Do you think HOF voters will believe Ward is more deserving of the HOF than Harrison?

If your answer to #1 is no, why are you bothering to post this?

 

[AmosMoses]

He would have had a better chance had he retired a few years ago after his SBMVP. But after a few years of #### stats, he is letting better WRs catch up to and pass his career stats. He says he won't retire this offseason, then he is going to get passed by a few more guys. In 6+ years, Hines Ward will look like an above average WR that had a long career.

 

[Borat]

Hey, guess what?

If he was a 1st ballot HOFer, there wouldn't be an 11 page debate about his candidacy.

 

[Tau837]

I can't believe how much I was drawn into this. If Ward retires right now, he has zero chance of making the HOF.If his career ends in 5+ years and he has had great numbers and more stellar postseason performances, he will have a chance. How much of a chance depends on the details of those great numbers and postseason performances, as well as on his peers at WR and all other positions.Oh yeah, and it would help if he made All Pro at least once.The odds are stacked heavily against him. Anyone who says otherwise is refusing to look at the big picture.

Posted this 6 seasons ago.Has he had great numbers since then? No. He has had 426/5053/33 (11.9 ypr) in 90 regular season games. That is an average season of 71/842/5.5 in 15 games.Has he had more stellar postseason performances? No. He has had 31/420/2 in 7 postseason games, which includes 9/121/1 in 2 Super Bowls. In these 7 games, he has had one 100 yard game, and 2 games with TDs (no multi TD games). This is all solid, but not stellar. I'm sure he gets a boost from the fact that he was on two more Super Bowl teams, including one winner, but his contribution was not as compelling as in the 2006 playoff run (which is what prompted this thread in the first place).Has he improved his standing among his peers at WR? Not really. He is still very clearly behind Harrison, Owens, and Moss among his peers. He is still arguably behind Holt and Bruce. How many receivers of this generation will get in?Has he received more honors/awards? No. No Pro Bowls, no All Pro selections, no Super Bowl MVPs, no All Decade teams (notably, Harrison, Holt, Moss, and Owens made the 2000s All Decade team).None of the criteria I cited has really changed much. I will say that the Steelers' high level of success over this period will likely help him.

 

[Tau837]

In 6+ years, Hines Ward will look like an above average WR that had a long career.

That isn't surprising, because that's exactly what he is and has been all along.

 

[Tau837]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

atsselfonback:

95-1167-6 this year at age 33 and says he wants to play 3 more years. 895-10,947-78 right now. 3 more years (if he doesn't miss significant time) will likely leave him somewhere in the neighborhood of :1200-14,000-100.Just an update.

Patting yourself on the back for your 2006 prediction? What about this 2010 prediction?

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Hey, guess what? If he was a 1st ballot HOFer, there wouldn't be an 11 page debate about his candidacy.

Hey, guess what? check out post 507

 

[Evilgrin 72]

It all just depends on how long he plays. His game isn't built on skills that typically erode over time (top end speed, mind-boggling elusiveness.) He's a good route runner with good hands and an iron will, and if he chooses to play until he's 35-36, he's going to end up with 1000 receptions, about 12-13,000 yards and close to/over 100 TDs, which will make him a shoo-in. It's all up to him at this point.

6 years later...1000/12083/85

atsselfonback:

95-1167-6 this year at age 33 and says he wants to play 3 more years. 895-10,947-78 right now. 3 more years (if he doesn't miss significant time) will likely leave him somewhere in the neighborhood of :1200-14,000-100.Just an update.

Patting yourself on the back for your 2006 prediction? What about this 2010 prediction?

[shatner] There's....... still TIME ! [/shatner]

 

[Ghost Rider]

For both players, I divided career #s by games started and then multiplied by 16. Ward has averaged more catches and more TDs per 16 starts over his career than Irvin did. So, if averaging 6.5 TDs a season over 13 years (counting all games, not just starts) is not Hall-worthy, than Irvin's 5.9 TDs per season over 11 seasons DEFINITELY isn't. You also have to take into account that Ward was never a deep threat, which almost all of these other guys mentioned were/are. That was never his game, he's a possession receiver and his job his whole career has been to aid the run game, and make big catches when needed (3rd downs, red zone, etc.) It's not as sexy, but you have to consider how well a player has done what is asked of him rather than just look at raw numbers.

Besides, I don't buy into the notion that a player's prime is all that is to be considered. Performing over a great length of time is also something to be valued, IMO. People use the term "compiler" all the time, as if playing for a long time is something that devalues a player's stats, but the bottom line is that if you're still out there and starting/producing at an advanced age, then you're probably a pretty damned good player. A guy like Terrell Davis, who had a super-high peak but nothing else (unfortunately) does not belong in the HOF over a guy like Bettis, who was an often solid, sometimes elite performer for well over a decade. That's just my opinion, and just to compare a Bronco to a Steeler because, well, why not?

And P.S. - I love Rod Smith and wouldn't cry if he was inducted either. Guy was great for a long time, but he's just a (slightly) lesser version of Ward, career-wise. 3 Pro Bowls to Ward's 4, 1 2nd team All-Pro to Ward's 2, no SB MVP. Had a better peak, but didn't contribute for quite as long.

First off, if we are gonna put guys in the Hall because they simply did well what was asked of them, are we gonna put Darren Sproles in the Hall when he retires because he does an awesome job at what has been asked of him in San Diego and New Orleans? The obvious answer is no. Second, longevity is a good thing, yes, but when you were never really one of the top guys at your position (which Ward never really was, except for maybe a year or two, same with Bettis), it is hard to see that player as a Hall of Famer. Ward and Bettis would both be locks in the Hall of Very Good. I will give them both that.

Yardage-wise, he doesn't, because he's a 12.1 career YPC guy. Unlike just about everyone else on this list, he was never a team's primary deep threat. In # of catches and in TDs, he compares favorably to many of the guys on the list, which is basically a bonus, since his career should (will) be measured by voters in terms of his contribution to his team, the intangibles you mention. 2 rings, a Super Bowl MVP award, his leadership, the fact that he's considered by most to be the best blocking WR ever, etc... Voters will recognize his contributions to winning 2 titles for one of the league's marquee franchises and his reputation will enhance his candidacy. Playing as the possession receiver on the league's most run-heavy team for most of his career may dampen his yardage numbers, but I think that fact will be far less important to HOF voters than it is on a FF message board.

That is most certainly not a fact. It is merely an opinion, one Steelers fans have spun so much that they all think it is fact.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Yardage-wise, he doesn't, because he's a 12.1 career YPC guy. Unlike just about everyone else on this list, he was never a team's primary deep threat. In # of catches and in TDs, he compares favorably to many of the guys on the list, which is basically a bonus, since his career should (will) be measured by voters in terms of his contribution to his team, the intangibles you mention. 2 rings, a Super Bowl MVP award, his leadership, the fact that he's considered by most to be the best blocking WR ever, etc... Voters will recognize his contributions to winning 2 titles for one of the league's marquee franchises and his reputation will enhance his candidacy. Playing as the possession receiver on the league's most run-heavy team for most of his career may dampen his yardage numbers, but I think that fact will be far less important to HOF voters than it is on a FF message board.

That is most certainly not a fact. It is merely an opinion, one Steelers fans have spun so much that they all think it is fact.

Who is better (I'm asking a legitimate question; I don't know)?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yardage-wise, he doesn't, because he's a 12.1 career YPC guy. Unlike just about everyone else on this list, he was never a team's primary deep threat. In # of catches and in TDs, he compares favorably to many of the guys on the list, which is basically a bonus, since his career should (will) be measured by voters in terms of his contribution to his team, the intangibles you mention. 2 rings, a Super Bowl MVP award, his leadership, the fact that he's considered by most to be the best blocking WR ever, etc... Voters will recognize his contributions to winning 2 titles for one of the league's marquee franchises and his reputation will enhance his candidacy. Playing as the possession receiver on the league's most run-heavy team for most of his career may dampen his yardage numbers, but I think that fact will be far less important to HOF voters than it is on a FF message board.

That is most certainly not a fact. It is merely an opinion, one Steelers fans have spun so much that they all think it is fact.

Who is better (I'm asking a legitimate question; I don't know)?

Unless you are someone who has been breaking down NFL footage on a weekly basis for decades, it is impossible to say. That is why it is funny when Steelers talk like Ward is the best ever, when in reality it is impossible to know something like that.Also, if Ward's intangibles like blocking, leadership, etc. will work in his favor, but then his reputation as one of the NFL's dirtiest players of the last decade will work against him. How many times has he been voted by his peers as the league's dirtiest players (or just in the top 5)? Have any of the WRs from his era who he will have to outdo to get into the Hall been looked at as being even close to as dirty as Ward?