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Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (1 Viewer)

Is this cash or gpp?

Rondo Lowry

Beal Fournier

Melo Crowder

Harris Zinger

Embiid

Made it earlier today and just got it in a few. Wanted to be online like 30 min ago. 

 
dont feel great about this.  scaled back my buyins.  last time i went balanced i didnt even come close to cashing.  tough slate.

 
did awful. probably like -90%.  dmdr, love, porzingis, beal all underperformed.  some cashed but mostly missed the cutline by a couple pts here or there.  painful.

also sucks when the only guys that killed it for you were highly owned.  embiid (67%), rondo (75%!), schroeder (52%).  sigh.

 
Got completely trashed in a 3 max. Nothing cashed. I have to come up with a different strategy towards building LUs

 
sooted72 said:
well he doesnt really score much.  but for yesterday yeah small slate + matchup with kyrie = should have been 100% owned for sure.
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It doesn't matter how many points he scores -- he fills the stat sheet. He's grossly underpriced today on the b2b. He's the 1st guy I'm putting in my cash lineups regardless of the size of the slate. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
It doesn't matter how many points he scores -- he fills the stat sheet. He's grossly underpriced today on the b2b. He's the 1st guy I'm putting in my cash lineups regardless of the size of the slate. 
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Actually my PG looks set with Rondo/Harrison. I love Ingram at his price but Memphis at home scares me a bit, so I'm not 100% committed there yet. I also can't think of a single reason on the planet to go w/ anyone other than Okafor & C if Embiid is definitely out. 

 
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Tennessee_ATO said:
It doesn't matter how many points he scores -- he fills the stat sheet. He's grossly underpriced today on the b2b. He's the 1st guy I'm putting in my cash lineups regardless of the size of the slate. 
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points are very important as theyre the easiest path to fantasy production for all players.  so when you have a non-scorer he really has to do a lot of other things.  right now rondo is playing well but his minutes, shooting %, ppg and assists are all down relative to his career averages for a team thats bottom 5ish in the nba in pace.  over this current 6 game hot streak hes rebounding at a better rate than he ever has in his career.  you only have to look back to the start of the season to see a run of not great rebounding games and how meh his stat lines become overall.

now having said all that, hes certainly been a great play.  dude is averaging 5x for the season pretty much.  hes a solid value play right now and has been for like a month.  but unless you think hes all of a sudden a different player at age 30 than he has been his entire career its probably just a good run and theres no reason to think hes going to maintain these numbers going forward.

 
Early lineups:

Rondo/Harrison

Klay/DeMar

Durant/Ingram

Draymond/JaMichael

Big Al

And:

Rondo/Harrison

Klay/Booker

Durant/Butler

Draymond/Taj

Okafor

Generally, pricing hasn't caught up w/ Rondo, Harrison, Ingram, or Okafor. Grizz players make me nervous as a rule, but the Memphis backcourt is super thin and the Lakers aren't good at the defense. Rondo is simply underpriced, so don't overthink it. Plus Wade is out and Dallas is abysmal right now, so Butler has some more appeal too. The blow-out potential is a cloud tho. The GS-Pho game is a scorer's delight with 2 up-tempo teams who can score and can't come close to playing defense. 

 
sooted72 said:
points are very important as theyre the easiest path to fantasy production for all players.  so when you have a non-scorer he really has to do a lot of other things.  right now rondo is playing well but his minutes, shooting %, ppg and assists are all down relative to his career averages for a team thats bottom 5ish in the nba in pace.  over this current 6 game hot streak hes rebounding at a better rate than he ever has in his career.  you only have to look back to the start of the season to see a run of not great rebounding games and how meh his stat lines become overall.

now having said all that, hes certainly been a great play.  dude is averaging 5x for the season pretty much.  hes a solid value play right now and has been for like a month.  but unless you think hes all of a sudden a different player at age 30 than he has been his entire career its probably just a good run and theres no reason to think hes going to maintain these numbers going forward.
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As I said heading into last night's game: he may not go off, but he's underpriced by $800-$1000. His average 2016-2017 game is right at $200/pt at his current salary. His 2015-16 average game was ~$167/pt at his current salary. The player he is, and has been for awhile, is a $7000 salary player, and you can get him for $5900. Any given game will be good, bad, or average, but his average game hits "value" at his current salary. And to top it off, he's playing very well right now on a team that seems very well-suited for his skills. 

 
ugh.  ok ill try this again differently...

hes on a month-long run of rebounding more than he ever has in his entire career.  do you have reason to believe this is sustainable?  because if not, then you only have to go back to earlier in the season and look at the game logs to see a bunch of non-rebound-fueled meh gamelogs that would make him much more like the player hes priced at as opposed to the player hes currently playing like.

also keep in mind that as previously mentioned hes playing for one of the slowest paced teams in the nba which is not excatly known for their offense and most of his overall numbers (mpg, ppg, apg, fg%, etc) are way down.

you dont need to respond with any of the stuff in your previous post bc i agree with pretty much all of it.

 
sooted72 said:
ugh.  ok ill try this again differently...

hes on a month-long run of rebounding more than he ever has in his entire career.  do you have reason to believe this is sustainable?  because if not, then you only have to go back to earlier in the season and look at the game logs to see a bunch of non-rebound-fueled meh gamelogs that would make him much more like the player hes priced at as opposed to the player hes currently playing like.

also keep in mind that as previously mentioned hes playing for one of the slowest paced teams in the nba which is not excatly known for their offense and most of his overall numbers (mpg, ppg, apg, fg%, etc) are way down.

you dont need to respond with any of the stuff in your previous post bc i agree with pretty much all of it.
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Rondo has always been a good rebounder for a PG, but I have no reason to believe he'll get 8-10 per game. If I did think that was sustainable, I would think he's an $8000 player, not $7000. 

I think his mpg are settling in to his historical norms in the mid-30's since his 2 game hiatus (really before). His apg are also settling into his norms, as are his points. 

Think of it this way: if you subtracted 3 rebounds a game from his run since his brief injury to get into a more "normal" range of 5-8, his range (omitting last night's outlier) is 29-33. That's still the performance of a $7500 player.

 
sooted72 said:
like this as a base.  any concerns with jah vs horford?
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Some, but at $4400 with his minutes restriction being slowly lifted, you really don't need a good game from him to be OK.

As an aside, C has become a position that I think you need to aim for quite a bit better than $200/pt. The pricing is really soft at that position compared to SG/SF/PF IMO. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Rondo has always been a good rebounder for a PG, but I have no reason to believe he'll get 8-10 per game. If I did think that was sustainable, I would think he's an $8000 player, not $7000. 

I think his mpg are settling in to his historical norms in the mid-30's since his 2 game hiatus (really before). His apg are also settling into his norms, as are his points. 

Think of it this way: if you subtracted 3 rebounds a game from his run since his brief injury to get into a more "normal" range of 5-8, his range (omitting last night's outlier) is 29-33. That's still the performance of a $7500 player.
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i mean obv its ok if you think rondo of the last month is the new baseline rondo.  to me that just seems too optimistic and its likely hes just playing pretty well right now.

 
sooted72 said:
i mean obv its ok if you think rondo of the last month is the new baseline rondo.  to me that just seems too optimistic and its likely hes just playing pretty well right now.
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There's some sort of disconnect here. I don't think the last month is his new baseline. The last month he's been an $8000+ player. I think his baseline is a $7000 player.

A player's salary generally doesn't have him be a $200/pt player for an "average" game. It's typically something more like $250/pt. if Rondo was $7000 I think playing him would take more of an assessment of matchup, etc. like most players. At $5900, his matchup is largely irrelevant IMO. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
There's some sort of disconnect here. I don't think the last month is his new baseline. The last month he's been an $8000+ player. I think his baseline is a $7000 player.

A player's salary generally doesn't have him be a $200/pt player for an "average" game. It's typically something more like $250/pt. if Rondo was $7000 I think playing him would take more of an assessment of matchup, etc. like most players. At $5900, his matchup is largely irrelevant IMO. 
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As I said earlier: He's a $7000 player playing out of his mind right now ... for $5900. 

 
sooted72 said:
right but we dont really care about "average".  we care about the 5x baseline for consideration.
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Sure. But talent matters. At $5900, if his average game is 29, he's a lock play unless you think he's going to have a below-average game. At $7000, you're looking for above average, like with most players.

Rondo is an above-average (I think well above average, but opinions may differ on that) PG priced slightly below average. I just think that when those situations arise you play that guy blindly until pricing catches up. 

 
LOL. 3 mins into 2nd half, Bulls call timeout b/c they look every bit as bad as they did to start the game, largely due to Rondo. Dallas hadn't had a lead larger than 13 at any point this season before tonight. They were up 15 in the 1st and now 18 early 3rd. It's safe to say I didn't see this coming. 

 
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Whelp, that's the end of my night. Bulls in midst of a 4-in-5 so it looks like they're folding the tent tonight. Brutal, just brutal. At least this should help keep Rondo's price down I guess, so there's that. 

 
Well I don't know what I am doing wrong........but I am going to have to take a break from Basketball, I have been losing on a pretty study basis. I am trying to build my LU from the "bottom up", but I must be doing something wrong.........plus I have gotten killed a few times by late scratches.

Need a little time off to regroup.........Maybe the short turnaround is just not for me. Maybe I should just focus on certain nights of the week or when there is like a short slate. Seems I do better then.......

 
the thing that sucks for me tonight is that i was so close to getting rondo out of my cash game lineups.  i spent 6:50-7:00 trying to replace him with dragic but just ran out of time.  couldnt find a lineup that i liked.

 
How am I doing tonight...let's look at the top value plays

PG - Rondo :thumbdown: , Schroder  :thumbdown:

SG - Bradley  :thumbup: , Allen 

SF - Ingram  :thumbdown: , Williams 

PF - Mirotic  :thumbdown: , Muscala  :thumbdown:

C - Okafor  :thumbdown: , Turkic  :thumbdown:

Any idea how we could play the opposite of the IVC recommendations?

 
sooted72 said:
lol cant wait to run it back next time, huh?
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If he's @ $5900 you betchya. Just like his 50-burger last night was an outlier, tonight was too. 

Frankly, I'm not sure it would have mattered for me anyway. Neither of my lineups was good. My core ranged from atrocious to "meh", so I was facing an uphill battle even if Rondo hit for 35. 

 
sooted72 said:
the thing that sucks for me tonight is that i was so close to getting rondo out of my cash game lineups.  i spent 6:50-7:00 trying to replace him with dragic but just ran out of time.  couldnt find a lineup that i liked.
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If I'm the reason you were on Rondo, I apologize. Hopefully you were on him last night too tho. 

 
oh yeah never posted lineup...

harrison/rondo.  had them locked in all day but tried desperately to change rondo out last minute but couldnt make it work.  ended up not making much of a difference.

bradley/klay. maybe could have gone lavine/klay to get dragic in?

durant/butler.  not that either was a lock but seemed like a pretty reasonable spot to pay up for.

muscala/green.  punted pf.  could have easily been a disaster but luckily green went for like 8x.  muscala pretty much hit value too.

whiteside.  just straight up the best play otb tonight imo.  though also loved jah and liked kat.

298.70 cashed all cash games and min cashed about half gpps.

 
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