Give the Deep Dive props on warning us about Whiteside and Mello, not sure anyone could see the lack of effort from LAC that happened and while LB didn't reach value he wasn't that far off.
But I agree with the point, you never really know.
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Hoopsguys - FBG ventures into NBA DFS (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
But I agree with the point, you never really know.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Looking at a possible second Cash LU
Wall/Lowry/Beal/Barton/Wigg/JJohn/Aldrich/Llysa/Embiid
Hmmmmm
right but the same was true of last night and it was perhaps the lowest scoring big slate night of the season. again, not sure what point youre making here.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
This is pretty funny, the projected starting lineup for Utah per Rotowire:
Exum, Ingles, Johnson, Diaw, Gobert
Diaw has like 2 games a year when he goes off. Could these be one of them?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Could be, I need to see who is starting or GS before I even think about that as a GPP play
well ok thanks for clearing that up for me!
anyway, going to study the pucks. looks like big fun slate tonight. gl everyone...
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
My current lineup for cash:
Wall/Lowry
Beal/Wade
Otto/Johnson
ZBo/Ersan
Embiid
Pending some word out of the GS-Utah abomination, I could go: Lowry=>Mack, Wade=>Barton, ZBo=>Brow.
Wall/Lowry
Beal/Wade
Otto/Johnson
ZBo/Ersan
Embiid
Pending some word out of the GS-Utah abomination, I could go: Lowry=>Mack, Wade=>Barton, ZBo=>Brow.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
I don't think you are looking at this with the proper game theory. Your goal is beat 50/55% not to beat 85% of the people. You are exposing yourself to all kinds of downside that you don't need to. Play Embiid and win at other spots.
And to your point, why look to win at other spots when I feel I can gain an advantage over 85% of the field at one spot, just saying ?
where do you draw the line then? in my theoretical shabazz napier example would you play him?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
That's an incomplete game-theory analysis though because even if Embiid is the "right" call from a scoring perspective (i.e., he goes off), you still don't "win" if you picked him. You still have to beat 35% of the field in a 50/50.
And none of that takes into account relative confidence in player selection. If he thinks Gortat is 51% likely to outperform Embiid, he should play Embiid. 70%? Then Gortat is the right call.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Lowry only 9-11% owned in my big doubles. I'm kind of surprised by that.
there is really no ownership % reason to ever play/not play a player in cash games. there is no way to spin the math in a way that changes that i dont think.
now if a player is 85% owned then you might be more likely to play him because hes very likely a good play. but not just because he happens to be highly owned. like in my napier example.
now if a player is 85% owned then you might be more likely to play him because hes very likely a good play. but not just because he happens to be highly owned. like in my napier example.
freeannyong
Footballguy
Of course you wouldn't play a guy getting a 0. But that example doesn't really have anything in common with Embiid. He's got the 3rd highest usage rate in the league, and is very under priced. Two reasons you wouldn't use him in cash are (1) you think your projections are better than everyone else or (2) you want to increase your variance.
ETA: We are playing him because hes going to be 85% AND his projection is great.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I think it matters, but not as much as others think. If 2 guys have the same salary and you rate them identically in terms of projection, game theory clearly tells you to go w/ the higher owned player in a 50/50 if you are better than average at the other 8 spots as a whole. We all think we're better than average, so that part of it doesn't matter
But outside of that scenario, I don't think the analysis is nearly as simple as the "join the masses" crowd claims it to be.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Utah opens up a 4-0 lead then GS goes on a 29-1 run?! Sheesh. GS starters may shower at the half.Tennessee_ATO said:
you seem to be combining two different discussions. if the conversation is literally about embiid tonight, then you are probably right that hes a must play or close to it. i dont really know, i didnt research any nba today. but im pretty sure thats not really the discussion people around here want to have.freeannyong said:
if youre saying that you should always play a guy whos 85% owned in cash games because not playing that player would result in too much downside thats where i think the people here disagree with you. i think that just playing your most optimal lineup regardless of ownership % should yield the highest longterm ev.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Was listening to the FNTSY app NBA DFS preview show while x-mas shopping with the wife last night and literally threw this lineup together in 6-7 minutes, entered in 2 $1 50/50 and won both. Only $$ Ive won in NBA this year.
Wall Mack (mack was my choice because he was cheap and utahs starters were either hurt or resting so wth)
Derozan Stauskas (Stauskas my play also as it was last position I filled and fit)
Durant J Johnson( Durant my pick because I like him-lol)
Aldridge M Morris
Towns
tried to switch out Towns/Stauskas for Embiid/Wade but ran out of time
Wall Mack (mack was my choice because he was cheap and utahs starters were either hurt or resting so wth)
Derozan Stauskas (Stauskas my play also as it was last position I filled and fit)
Durant J Johnson( Durant my pick because I like him-lol)
Aldridge M Morris
Towns
tried to switch out Towns/Stauskas for Embiid/Wade but ran out of time
Raging weasel
Footballguy
Were hoopsguys on Mack at all? He returned 10x and made up for my overspending on Towns/Durant. Stauskas was solid for the money too.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Won a bit last night as my 282 was good enough to rake cash action and min-cash in GPPs. Wall wasn't good at all, but on a low-scoring night (on FD anyway) it was OK. Was actually trying to panic-move from him to Mack, and turn ZBo into Brow. Would have netted me ~20 points, but wouldn't have changed much of anything. 302 might have won me like $5 more bucks.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Mack didn't return 10x. It was 8.6x. I know it may sound nitpicky, but sub $100/pt plays are special.
They were. Actually looked like they hit a majority of their value plays for the first time in ages.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Back of the envelope with confirmation that Seth Curry is out, but no official word on Rose or Love.
DWill/Delley -- Delley is probably just a place-holder. I really like Jennings if we get word that Rose is out. I don't think the $600 will be an issue.
Lou/Greek -- Feels like I'm chasing points with Lou, and maybe I am. But I've liked him as a player since midway last year. All he's needed has been minutes.
Jae/H. Barnes -- IT3 is out, so I like Crowder. Barnes is the #1 guy to go if I need cash to play @ PG.
Powell/Ibaka -- had a brief exchange on Powell last week. He's a nice offensive player, but last year he wilted a bit as his usage and minutes increased.
Boogie
The obvious glaring issue is 3 Mavs, but they have been playing a little better (faint praise I know). I probably can't stay with that many in cash on a big slate tho.
DWill/Delley -- Delley is probably just a place-holder. I really like Jennings if we get word that Rose is out. I don't think the $600 will be an issue.
Lou/Greek -- Feels like I'm chasing points with Lou, and maybe I am. But I've liked him as a player since midway last year. All he's needed has been minutes.
Jae/H. Barnes -- IT3 is out, so I like Crowder. Barnes is the #1 guy to go if I need cash to play @ PG.
Powell/Ibaka -- had a brief exchange on Powell last week. He's a nice offensive player, but last year he wilted a bit as his usage and minutes increased.
Boogie
The obvious glaring issue is 3 Mavs, but they have been playing a little better (faint praise I know). I probably can't stay with that many in cash on a big slate tho.
Last night was a prime example why you don't have to follow the groupthink on high owned players, trust your own projections.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Weird sort of funny story. I went out after the Clipper blow out Wednesday night. Drank a bit so got a room rather than drive across the desert. Got home a little hungover to see I had made 33 placeholders for yesterday drunk in the hotel room. Nothing unusual, 3 h2hs, 3 core lineups Xs 10 entries in a gpp. I even liked what I saw. I constructed 27 unique lineups for the gpps slowly through the day, waiting for news, looking at different combinations, reading all the game day beat writers. But by 3pm an hour to tipoff the night before was getting to me and I needed a nap. So I set an alarm for 45 minutes figuring I'd get up and check last minute news with a little time to make changes. So the alarm goes off and I groggily look at my tablet to see both MGasol and Wall are OUT. Crap... they were featured in one of the core lineups. So I got up and went to the desk where I removed them from all lineups, used a little TBurke and a bunch of ZBo, making other changes with all that Wall money, and the games started, and so did Wall.
I dreamed the news. I never looked at my tablet. I dreamed it. Then I got up...
Think I need more than just a day off?
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Forum thread at RG worth considering
Definitely my experience and why I have emphasized smallish slate multi-entry gpps while completely avoiding the featured cash games.
Definitely my experience and why I have emphasized smallish slate multi-entry gpps while completely avoiding the featured cash games.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Yeah, you need a break for sure.Weird sort of funny story. I went out after the Clipper blow out Wednesday night. Drank a bit so got a room rather than drive across the desert. Got home a little hungover to see I had made 33 placeholders for yesterday drunk in the hotel room. Nothing unusual, 3 h2hs, 3 core lineups Xs 10 entries in a gpp. I even liked what I saw. I constructed 27 unique lineups for the gpps slowly through the day, waiting for news, looking at different combinations, reading all the game day beat writers. But by 3pm an hour to tipoff the night before was getting to me and I needed a nap. So I set an alarm for 45 minutes figuring I'd get up and check last minute news with a little time to make changes. So the alarm goes off and I groggily look at my tablet to see both MGasol and Wall are OUT. Crap... they were featured in one of the core lineups. So I got up and went to the desk where I removed them from all lineups, used a little TBurke and a bunch of ZBo, making other changes with all that Wall money, and the games started, and so did Wall.
I dreamed the news. I never looked at my tablet. I dreamed it. Then I got up...
Think I need more than just a day off?
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Today is the kind of slate I fade, and I love Sundays, so I'll try to stay away today.
This is so much fun though. DFS has turned the long nba season into the most entertaining sport I follow. I barely watch football. My audit right now... @ FanDuel -$265, @ DK +$1477. Even with yesterday's dream I broke even thanks to one lineup of the 30 gpps paying for the rest. For those of you who frown on using a ton of entries, that result has been the case for me about a dozen times this year. I sneak one team into the top hundred of 30-75k teams and it covers most of the losses with the addition of making the late game lots of fun. I had Ingles, Lyles and Draymond on my best team last night. Late in the game Ingles got a steal and drove the court making a perfect pass to Lyles who blew the layup. That assist and bucket would have made me some money. I was yelling and cheering and cursing... too fun. The team moved all the way into the top 25 before the Spurs/Bulls guys came on late. Still covered the other 29 losers.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I just haven't seen the cutlines being similar on a consistent basis, at least at the $1-$2 level. Last night, for example, the cutlines for my $1 50/50's were 260-265, my $2 doubles were 265-270, and my $1 GPPs were 278-280.
Obviously limited data from last night doesn't prove anything, but according to my tracking the gap between 50/50's and GPP's at that low price point has been pretty consistently 8-15.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Yep. I've said it before, for entertainment NBA DFS stomps the crap out of NFL DFS. Not even close. Having a dialed-in SP going late in MLB is damn fun too.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I thought long about Goran. It's him and Whiteside vs. the world tonight. Any word on what the Cavs are doing? I thought I saw they may rest some guys. If so, that could be a good spot for both those guys.
Glad to see someone else w/ some Mavs.
Like how Ersan is playing right now. But I don't know how I feel about pairing him w/ Melo. That's a lot of production you need from that front court.
meh. dont really care much for your non-powell forwards. id find a way to get lbj in there if we get news that love is out prior to lock.
