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How 'bout them Reds! (2 Viewers)

So what are we looking at this year?  75-80 wins? 

I'm actually excited to see them compete this year and see how long before Senzel and Winker get fulltime opportunities. 

 
Senzel at SS would be a big boost obviously.  We could be switching from Jose Peraza's OK glove and weak bat to an elite hitter as early as May if they're serious about this. 

But ya, I still think 500 is the ceiling for a team with this rotation.  The fact that they're considering guys like Ramano and Finnegan for the rotation, but not guys like Amir Garrett and Cody Reed makes me feel like the rotation will be just bad instead of wildly inconsistent.  Any path to a wild card race involves a full season from Disco or Homer, which frankly is a long shot.

I do feel there is enough pressure right now that IF they're somehow in the race this summer they will look at making a big move.  They have payroll flexibility and a pretty deep system now.  I get the feeling though the front office would rather the team prove it for 3 months first to decide if we're "trying" yet.

 
I didn't mention Winker.  I like Winker and he will probably get a chance to hit.  I just don't see that as a huge boost because he would have to be all star level to represent a significant upgrade over what we have in the OF.

 
Disco looked pretty good in his first two innings of ST. Both the hits he gave up were bloopers. After the Thames leadoff blooper, he got Yelich to GIDP. Struck out two. Barnhart said he looked "normal," so that's good. If the SP can be healthy and consistent, I think this'll be a .500+ team with a chance at a WC. 

 
Surprised by the lack of hype on Winker. I've followed him for years and I'm all in on him this year. I think he's going to be an absolute stud at the ML level. 

 
Winker is a high floor, low ceiling prospect.  He'll get on base but doesn't offer much power, speed or defensive versatility.

If the Reds could combine Winker's hit tool with Duvall's power and Ervin's speed, then they'd really have something.

 
Eephus said:
Winker is a high floor, low ceiling prospect.  He'll get on base but doesn't offer much power, speed or defensive versatility.

If the Reds could combine Winker's hit tool with Duvall's power and Ervin's speed, then they'd really have something.
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I think the power is there. He's had a couple of wrist injuries in the minors that coincide with his power lapses. And of course that ball park will help; any 6-3, 215 pounder not named James Loney who squares the ball up as often as Winker does will see enough clear the fence.  He certainly looked the part in Aug/Sept - though obviously a small sample size.

In fairness, I'm a sucker for guys who hit .300 and walk as much as they strike out, so Winker had me from hello. This moonshot the other day only strengthened my erection. 

 
It’s GABP though. I think he’ll have plenty of power. He has to have as much power as Scooter Gennett or 10 other guys who randomly are 20-25 hr guys once they hit Cincy. 

 
BTW, Reds are tinkering with Winker leading off.  If that happens, and the power is real, he could be a fantasy monster.  

 
The main question for Winker is how many games will he play?  Schebler and Duvall were fine as everyday guys and the difference between Billy and any of the other 3 in cf is the size of the Grand Canyon. Is Winker potentially the best of all of them? Yes. But he might find himself in some sort of rotation. The others might be too good to just relegate to bench players. 

 
tommyGunZ said:
BTW, Reds are tinkering with Winker leading off.  If that happens, and the power is real, he could be a fantasy monster.  
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He's not going to magically start stealing bases if he gets moved up in the order.   It'll just move a few RBI into the R column. 

If he hits lefties well enough to force Schebler and Duvall into a straight platoon, he'll be rosterable in mixed leagues but a no-speed corner OF with 10-15 HRs isn't a hot fantasy commodity.

 
Eephus said:
He's not going to magically start stealing bases if he gets moved up in the order.   It'll just move a few RBI into the R column. 

If he hits lefties well enough to force Schebler and Duvall into a straight platoon, he'll be rosterable in mixed leagues but a no-speed corner OF with 10-15 HRs isn't a hot fantasy commodity.
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100% agreement on the speed/SB angle - ie he has none.  Disagree with the idea that Winker as a leadoff guy doesn't add value. He'll get a lot more ABs and I think his increase in R will more than offset a loss in RBI.  

We shall see!  

 
If he forces them into a straight platoon, he’ll have 10-15 by the all star break. We’ve seen this movie so many times where nobody ever homers in Louisville then they come to GABP and magically hit homers. 

 
Fwiw, Winker’s OPS was 1.026 on the road (5 homers v. 2 at home). I know it’s a small sample size but I’d say the power should be fine. 

 
Eephus said:
7 years for Suarez seems like a vote of confidence in Nick Senzel's ability to handle SS
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He’s seemed to handle it pretty well this spring but still could move Suarez back to short. It’s 11 mil max in the last three years. If he pans out, that’s going to be extremely good value. 

 
Opening day pushed back a day.  I don't think I will be able to watch the game, which sucks, but it might be for the best.  I have a feeling Homer is going to go <4 innings and the Reds lineup won't have an answer for Sherzer.  I will start watching Saturday and go from there.

Curious what people here think about the idea of using BHAM as a late inning defensive sub and pinch runner.  I can see the merit for it.  Winker looks like he is going to be a solid on base guy, which can only help, but I know its just so tempting to have Billy out there all the time because he can really affect a game.  Its a tough call, but I know I don't like the idea of a 4-man rotation in the outfield.  Thoughts?

 
Caesar said:
Opening day pushed back a day.  I don't think I will be able to watch the game, which sucks, but it might be for the best.  I have a feeling Homer is going to go <4 innings and the Reds lineup won't have an answer for Sherzer.  I will start watching Saturday and go from there.

Curious what people here think about the idea of using BHAM as a late inning defensive sub and pinch runner.  I can see the merit for it.  Winker looks like he is going to be a solid on base guy, which can only help, but I know its just so tempting to have Billy out there all the time because he can really affect a game.  Its a tough call, but I know I don't like the idea of a 4-man rotation in the outfield.  Thoughts?
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Billy is a game changer.  I'm fine with Hamilton/Winker/Schebler rotating, playing Duvall almost every day.

 
shuke said:
Billy is a game changer.  I'm fine with Hamilton/Winker/Schebler rotating, playing Duvall almost every day.
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Doesn't Duvall have teh diabeetus?  I thought I read somewhere that he was much better when getting some days off (which shouldn't be too big of an issue if those guys are all healthy)

 
heckmanm said:
Doesn't Duvall have teh diabeetus?  I thought I read somewhere that he was much better when getting some days off (which shouldn't be too big of an issue if those guys are all healthy)
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I know.  Let's give him the first game off!!!  Brilliant!!

 
MLB could speed up play by 2 minutes a game if Hamilton just flipped a coin before every at bat and took an automatic K when he guessed wrong.

So great defensively, such a waste at the plate most of the time.

Bailey turned in a better start than I thought he would though.

 
I'll give it to Bailey for a good start yesterday, but let's see if he can stay healthy and pitch all year with a sub 4 ERA. 

Its sad.  I feel like we have been hearing about Homer for 25 years, but while he's had some good moments, he's never really lived up to the hype
(or the contract)

 
I get your point, but that’s a harder standard than most probably realize in today’s context. 18 pitchers in all of mlb made at least 30 starts (stayed healthy all year as SP) and had a sub 4 ERA last year.   

Its getting to the point where every team will just take what they can get for as long as they can get it out of each SP and just assume they’ll eventually land on the dl. 

 
cheese said:
I get your point, but that’s a harder standard than most probably realize in today’s context. 18 pitchers in all of mlb made at least 30 starts (stayed healthy all year as SP) and had a sub 4 ERA last year.   

Its getting to the point where every team will just take what they can get for as long as they can get it out of each SP and just assume they’ll eventually land on the dl. 
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This is a fair point.  It just seems like not too long ago that Bailey was the untradeable blue chip in AAA.  I keep thinking it was the Yankees that tried so hard to get him, but I can't remember who we were trying to trade for at the time. 

Check out this gem from 2008:

Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors

By Tim Dierkes | January 10, 2008 at 5:41pm CDT

UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility.  He says the O’s want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion.  This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn’t make it any less so.  Mora may have negative value at this point.  Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.

UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm:  Rosenthal checks in with an update.  If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle’s second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling.  Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.

Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play.  He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.

:rofl:

 
Caesar said:
Check out this gem from 2008:

Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors

By Tim Dierkes | January 10, 2008 at 5:41pm CDT

UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility.  He says the O’s want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion.  This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn’t make it any less so.  Mora may have negative value at this point.  Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.
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Whoa!  Hahaha! 

 
Z. Weiss. 

ERA: INFINITY

We did it!!!!

Question: If he makes another appearance, gives up a run, and fails to record an out, can his ERA get worse?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Paul Sporer‏Verified account @sporer 12h12 hours ago

No team rolls out more "wtf is that?" pitchers than the Cincinnati Reds. Zack Weiss? WTF is that?? Tanner Rainey? OK for real, WHO the f is that?!

More

Last year they had guys named Jackson Stephens, Kevin Shackleford, Barrett Astin, Luke Farrell, Alejandro Chacin, Ariel Hernandez and more. WTF are they!? Sure, every team has some clown pitchers no one's heard of, but Cincy is a factory for them.

 
Epic Problem said:
Paul Sporer‏Verified account @sporer 12h12 hours ago

No team rolls out more "wtf is that?" pitchers than the Cincinnati Reds. Zack Weiss? WTF is that?? Tanner Rainey? OK for real, WHO the f is that?!

More

Last year they had guys named Jackson Stephens, Kevin Shackleford, Barrett Astin, Luke Farrell, Alejandro Chacin, Ariel Hernandez and more. WTF are they!? Sure, every team has some clown pitchers no one's heard of, but Cincy is a factory for them.
Click to expand...
May as well just grab the first guy that breaks 80 on the pitching machine game in the grandstand.  

 
You'd think after starting a rookie pitcher in 60+ consecutive starts in late 2015, at least one of them would be in the rotation a little over two years later.

Only Iglesias is on their 25 man roster.  Lorenzen, Finnegan and De Sclafani are on the DL  Maybe I'm missing somebody.

 
Eephus said:
You'd think after starting a rookie pitcher in 60+ consecutive starts in late 2015, at least one of them would be in the rotation a little over two years later.

Only Iglesias is on their 25 man roster.  Lorenzen, Finnegan and De Sclafani are on the DL  Maybe I'm missing somebody.
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But Bryan Price is an expert at developing young pitchers....

 
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