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How do you decide who to keep? (1 Viewer)

Horses Mouth

Footballguy
Take 2 guys. Let's say a veteran like Chris Johnson vs a young unproven guy like David Wilson

Redaft rankings generally have CJ placed above DW for this year. We have seen what CJ can do (2000 yards) followed up by a few seasons of frustration and inconsistency. TEN claims to have revamped the o-line and most rankings have somewhere around the 10 Rb bucket despite Greene vulturing.

Now DW has the Andre Brown issue plus a coach who has a history of using two backs. His upside is there but there are many question marks. DW can be as low as #20 rb for this year.

You pretty much know what you have in CJ. Big question marks for DW.

Assuming you can only keep one, i am interested in your thought process for how you would keep one over the other. We all face a time when throwing back a vet for a young guy's upside becomes a consideration. Thanks.

 
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Rather than answering OP's specific roster issue, I think a better discussion would be this: Assuming you can only keep 1 player each year and at equal cost, do you keep the RB that you think will be better this year or the one that you think will be better over the next few years. For me, I'd keep the guy I think will perform best this year. Things can change and in shallow keeper leagues, I think shorter term rather than longer term.

 
This is a complicated question that will result in a different answer every time depending on several factors.

In the situation above I keep CJ.... but what if CJ cost twice as much if it's an auction league? What if CJ is a 5th rounder and Wilson a 10th?

You need to take it all in and go with your gut.

 
I always have a tendency to over-complicate this decision, but in the end I typically go with the highest rated RB.

 
The way I look at it, it's all about value. Keepers gives you the opportunity to get increased value out of certain picks and your goal is to maximize that. Obviously, one of the things you'll want to look at is where he's being drafted (or how much he costs in auction leagues) to get an idea for the general perceived values of the players and how much of a discount you can get by keeping him.

Of course, the most important thing to remember when looking at this is to not forget the difference between perceived value (where he gets drafted) and actual value (how well he'll perform). Obviously, if the player underperforms, you're going to get a lot less value out of that, which can cost you in two ways - both in the reduced value of the player and the opportunity cost (difference between keeping that player vs. another you could have kept).

Long story short, I'd start by looking at where the player is going to get a feel for where you can get a discount, but the most important is to get a player that overperforms where you're keeping him. When in doubt, go with the guy who you think will have the better year, unless there's an obscene difference in the cost to keep them. Also, I wouldn't think too far ahead - just focusing on the upcoming year.

 

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