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How do you guys do your projections? (1 Viewer)

ahill84006

Footballguy
How do you guys do your projections? Do you do your own, or use the ones supplied by sites like FBG? If you do your own, how do you come up with your numbers?? Not looking for your "secrets", I am trying to do my own projections for the first time. I am looking for some pointers.......

 
How do you guys do your projections? Do you do your own, or use the ones supplied by sites like FBG? If you do your own, how do you come up with your numbers?? Not looking for your "secrets", I am trying to do my own projections for the first time. I am looking for some pointers.......
I probally make it more complicated than its needs to be. Each position is a little different but heres an example.rb joe shmoe 2005 stats 329 @ 3.8 ypc for 1250 yds, 8tds 23 catches 189yds

1) how did his team change? coaches, supporting cast, rumors on getting him more/less involved..etc.

2) how has he changed? age, weight, different workout, contract situation, injuries?

3) how has his schedule changed? overall strength, rush d etc

4) gut feeeling about player

so say his team improved o-line or signed better fb etc I would bump up ypc...

there schedule is weeker against run and easier(should be leading more) bump up number of carries....

team signed pass catching te so he could lose some catches.....

he just signed a fat long term deal depending on players character could affect effort...

and so on and so forth....I keep tweeking nubers like this till I have rough idea, then when I have all players done I recheck everything as a team overall and see what its looks like, tweek if needed to get finall #'s

so shmoe could look like 344 @ 4.2 for 1445 and 10tds 15 catches 120 yds

I usually project for the number of players I expect to be drafted at each position.

I will use projections for each leagues scoring system to get vbd #'s

I put alot of time into it but since I started doing it this way my overall success has drastically improved.

hope this helps

 
The method I feel best about is team-based projections.

(1) Look at last year's team stats

(2) Adjust them to compensate for:

...[a] Free agent gains and losses

... Players coming back from injury

...[c] Strength of this year's schedule

...[d] Coaching changes

...[e] Draft picks

(3) Once you have a team projection, then it's just a matter of slotting each starter's number of touches, yards per touch, etc.

The team-based projection gives you a framework within which to work (there are only so many receptions to go around; the team isn't likely to get more than 10 rushing touchdowns, and only 70-80% of those go to the starting RB; etc.)

 
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thanks!!

The one way I have tried is to take an average of the past 3 years, and adjust accordingly. The problem with that is some players were either hurt, or not in the league for the whole three years. Also, does not factor in rookies.

Any more suggestions??

 
The one way I have tried is to take an average of the past 3 years, and adjust accordingly. The problem with that is some players were either hurt, or not in the league for the whole three years. Also, does not factor in rookies.
Generally I'll look at the per game data make changes and multiply it by the number of games I expect them to play.
 
I try to look at:

1. The players talent.

2. The coaching staff and system... opportunity.

3. Surounding cast.

and in applicable situaitons

4. Historical precident.

Thats really about it for me. There can be changes to 2 and 3 and those are really all that changes my rankings of a player from year to year.

 
thanks!!

The one way I have tried is to take an average of the past 3 years, and adjust accordingly. The problem with that is some players were either hurt, or not in the league for the whole three years. Also, does not factor in rookies.

Any more suggestions??
I do something simmilar, I just take the number 1 RB from the last 4 years and do an average I then look at points per game. I then rank the players based on their points per game and team changes and things, then I rank the rookies. Then I give them the stats that I created from the ave. It might not be as scientific as thinking how well a team will do but I think it is much quicker and suits me well.
 

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