How do you tell when to start your risky upside players? (1 Viewer)

[3quinox]

This is only my second year in a league and I have always wanted to know this crucial question, Here is an example: I was able to pick up Brian Quick in the rookie draft but when should I play him? Do I sit him on my bench and monitor say his first three games than integrate him if I like what I see. What do you guys do in regards to starting upside players with risk?

 

[getsmartt]

If this is a redraft league, unless He really breaks out (early), he will end up riding your bench or being dropped to FA. I love high upside players, but really dislike rookies in Redraft as so few of them actually do break out, and If they do, and I need them I can generally grab them off the WW.

JMHO

 

[go2extrems]

This is only my second year in a league and I have always wanted to know this crucial question, Here is an example: I was able to pick up Brian Quick in the rookie draft but when should I play him? Do I sit him on my bench and monitor say his first three games than integrate him if I like what I see. What do you guys do in regards to starting upside players with risk?

Hopefully, with players like Quick, you can wait and see how he'll be used in the regular season before even having to consider starting him. Ideally, high upside rookies are guys that are at the end of your fantasy team's depth chart and not at the beginning. If you are VERY shallow at WR, for instance, and find yourself in a position to be gambling on a high upside player in week 1, pay very close attention to preseason and traning camp reports. You can gain a lot of insight from simply paying attention and reading what those who do this for a living have to say. In the past, FBG has put out a weekly preseason report that was just loaded with tidbits that came in handy when taking a chance on high upside/lower ADP players. I hope that helps.

 

[footballnerd]

this kid has too many questions to just pop him in there, not only with his ability, but his QB and his teams ability. If he was on a high powered offense you might be able to spot start him, but here you have to see it first to believe it.

 

[mjr]

Wait and see, unless you have no other choice.

Ill put a rook like Quick in my lineup as a #3WR during a bye week if I dont have better options and he has put up some points here and there, but I don't feel comfortable putting guys like that into my regular lineup until I see some type of consistency for 2 or 3 weeks. Even then I might go with a vet when I have one until the rook plays well enough to be a must start. That's pretty much my own rule at all positions whether it be redraft or dynasty.

I think the only time I might make an acception would be for the unquestionable starters or guys who are a lock for a good share of playing time. Guys like Luck and Richardson without doubt would be startable from week 1, as well as guys like Martin and Blackmon as your #3 RB or WR. Quick's situation is still a little up in the air, but if he were to go into week one as the teams #1 guy at the top of the depth chart, starting him as your #3 WR might be doable.

 

[mbuehner]

You're kind of asking two different questions, because rookies are a special case. They have no track record so you dont have as much data to dip into (which is why only very elite rookies have big fantasy impacts, and the vast majority of even high round picks dont end up on rosters in redraft leagues).

For rookies- you cant think about starting him early in the season, he may not even be on the field very much. Once he establishes a track record you can think about starting him in a pinch, but dont get your hopes up.

For other players- think about match ups. How is the opposing pass defense? Is it likely to be a high scoring game? Does the defense have a stud cornerback, and who is he likely to be covering (this could help your guy if the WR1 isnt getting targeted)? Whats your guys trajectory looking like, is he improving week by week? Are there shakeups at other positions (particularly QB) that will affect his performance? If you are a FBG member there are lot of resources that will give you tips on these kinds of issues. A good one is the weekly passing/rushing matchups- it gives you a nice overview of how the offenses match up with the defenses and who is like to benefit.

But a lot of people get frustrated when they do all there research, feel good about it, and then things dont go like they thought. Remember that when it comes to things like this its definitely a game of percentages- you are looking for a small extra edge. If you had a better sure fire option you wouldn't be considering playing a lesser guy (oh- good lesson there, always start your studs of course but dont outthink yourself in general trying to shoehorn in longshots over established producers without a very good reason). The point is over time these kinds of decisions will pay off (if you are gauging them correctly), but any given week they may not.

 

[3quinox]

You're kind of asking two different questions, because rookies are a special case. They have no track record so you dont have as much data to dip into (which is why only very elite rookies have big fantasy impacts, and the vast majority of even high round picks dont end up on rosters in redraft leagues).

For rookies- you cant think about starting him early in the season, he may not even be on the field very much. Once he establishes a track record you can think about starting him in a pinch, but dont get your hopes up.

For other players- think about match ups. How is the opposing pass defense? Is it likely to be a high scoring game? Does the defense have a stud cornerback, and who is he likely to be covering (this could help your guy if the WR1 isnt getting targeted)? Whats your guys trajectory looking like, is he improving week by week? Are there shakeups at other positions (particularly QB) that will affect his performance? If you are a FBG member there are lot of resources that will give you tips on these kinds of issues. A good one is the weekly passing/rushing matchups- it gives you a nice overview of how the offenses match up with the defenses and who is like to benefit.

But a lot of people get frustrated when they do all there research, feel good about it, and then things dont go like they thought. Remember that when it comes to things like this its definitely a game of percentages- you are looking for a small extra edge. If you had a better sure fire option you wouldn't be considering playing a lesser guy (oh- good lesson there, always start your studs of course but dont outthink yourself in general trying to shoehorn in longshots over established producers without a very good reason). The point is over time these kinds of decisions will pay off (if you are gauging them correctly), but any given week they may not.

Thanks for all of the input this is really helpful

 

[GridironMenace]

If Quick has a really good camp, there will be a ton of people advocating to start him in week 1. No one has seen him play with his new squad, so right now it's all just conjecture and wishful thinking. Watch your young guys play in camp and use that to make a decision. In all likelihood, you'll want to watch him for a game or 2 before throwing him in the fire.