EBF said:
If you're going to say that Caddy, Brown, and Benson only went in the top 10 for questionable reasons, then you need to look at the flipside and consider that guys like Jackson, McGahee, and McAllister fell out of the top ten for questionable reasons.
Uh...don't see your point here. Mcgahee may have compared had he not gotten hurt, but his injury was built into his draft stock and his grade, so it is what it is.McAllister fell because of durability issues. ADP is a top 5 pick
in spite of durability issues because from a pure talent standpoint, he's that far ahead of where Deuce was coming out of school.
Jackson...c'mon. The guy was passed over by countless teams in dire need of a RB, at a spot where they wouldn't even have to pay him much (IE not the kind of money ADP will be garnering). As a prospect Jackson wasn't even on the same plane of existence of ADP, and I'm an SJax dynasty owner that's been huge on him his whole career (hell, I drafted him at 1.09 in an inaugural dynasty draft when Sjax was headed into his 2nd year).
The bottom line is that RBs go high all the time. Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Reggie Bush, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, and Fred Taylor were all top ten picks within the past decade. A lot of these guys have had good careers, but so far only James and Tomlinson have produced more than 2-3 stud FF seasons.
Where did I mention stud FF seasons? I qualified a half dozen times in my post that I was speaking purely from an "as a prospect" stance, and from the stance ADP's grade runs laps around those of all but 2 or 3 of those guys listed.
I agree that Peterson is a nice talent, but experience has taught me that virtually every highly-touted rookie is viewed through rose-colored glasses.
Ya know, it's funny because usually I'm the one making the argument that people forget about everything but the present and as such think every guy is the most hyped, most overrated, most underrated, etc etc. But that isn't the case here. Even last year when Bush was being hyped like crazy people were already talking about ADP next year. This is a guy that people have been touting as a top NFL prospect since he was in high school, and when he was on the field he only EXCEEDED those expectations in college. The only thing that he didn't do to exceed all those already high expectations was stay healthy as much as most would have liked, but that didn't drop his stock nearly enough to get into the level of the other guys we're talking about here (except Bush).
It's important to recognize that there are many obstacles in the path to stardom. On talent alone, Peterson is very promising, but that doesn't guarantee much. A bad supporting cast or coaching staff could still have a large negative impact on his production. And although you brush aside his injury concerns like they're nothing, the fact remains that he was hampered by injuries every single season of his career.
When I read over my post again, I almost had to edit it because I realized I had used the phrase "as a prospect" in nearly every sentence and thought it was redundant. So again, I was speaking purely in response to the post earlier about how ADP grades as a prospect to how the other guys in the list graded out
as prospects
The once-in-a-generation or once-in-a-decade type junk gets thrown around every year.
Kind of the same as above here, and generally I agree with you, but I think part of the problem here is that the last two "once in a decade" prospects happened to come out in back to back years, and in the last two years. Mcgahee may have been another, but that dream was shattered and torn in the Fiesta Bowl.No one was talking about Steven Jackson being a stud NFL RB when he was a senior in high school. ADP has been getting this hype for almost a half dozen years and has exceeded even the expectations of those laying that burden on him.
