How Good is Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

Disclaimer - I don't want to take anything away from LJ and Priest's extremely impressive production in the last few years.

What I would like to discuss is how good do you think LJ is, and how much of his production is due to the O-Line and the system.

Based on the current FBG projections, LJ is expected to get about 2100 total yds and about 25 TDs. Let's assume that these projections turn out to be perfect and he gets exactly that in 2006.

Now let's look at other RBs that are ranked in the late teens, for example Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, R Droughns. If LJ can achieve a season of 2100 total yds and 25 TDs, then what do you think the other guys would get if KC was to trade LJ for one of the Joneses or Droughns tomorrow morning? Do you think the Joneses/Droughns would get about the same stats? Better? 20% worse? 40% worse?

Priest Holmes was a heck of a player, but before arriving in KC he was nothing special. I think it's a reasonable question to ask as to what he would have done if I had gone to Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, etc. instead of KC.

My personal opinion is that if you plug the Joneses/Droughns in KC in 2006, their production would be very close to what LJ would do. I am sure some of you might have different opinions but I would love to hear. Talent-wise, is LJ that superior looking at him play? It's easy to say the guy has talent when the O-Line does such a great job. How do you think he would do in another team?

 

[Bankerguy]

My brain hurts after reading this.

 

[Ozymandias]

1420 and 16; no, maybe 1380 and 12; or 1810 and 9, or 1646 and 13.

I guess I don't know.

 

[perry147]

My brain hurts after reading this.

Quit hurting me.

 

[snakeinthegrass]

I'm a KC homer so maybe I'm blinded, but imo LJ is a beast. He maximizes his situation in KC, but I think he would still be an amazing back anywhere. He's 230 pounds and I've yet to see him get caught from behind (that I can think of). He has also shown good vision and patience for a back with only 15/16 starts. Although he is a decent receiver he does need work on his pass blocking, but I can't remember many backs that can take it the distance from anywhere on the field the way LJ can (1st quarter or 4th quarter). The Droughns/Jones would do fine in KC, but I just don't think they could do what LJ does imo.

 

[gang-wars]

I'm a KC homer so maybe I'm blinded, but imo LJ is a beast. He maximizes his situation in KC, but I think he would still be an amazing back anywhere. He's 230 pounds and I've yet to see him get caught from behind (that I can think of). He has also shown good vision and patience for a back with only 15/16 starts. Although he is a decent receiver he does need work on his pass blocking, but I can't remember many backs that can take it the distance from anywhere on the field the way LJ can (1st quarter or 4th quarter). The Droughns/Jones would do fine in KC, but I just don't think they could do what LJ does imo.

I agree. If you watch him play, he's a beast.His upper body is extremely strong. He sheds tacklers like they're girls. Watch him go out of bounds or when he scores a TD, he's rarely brought down. He usually ends up throwing the tackler off his shoulders. Great speed, great balance, good vision.

He was the 2nd RB taken in 2003, so he has the talent. Rushed for 2,000 yards in his final year at Penn State. He's a work horse RB, very physical, with great speed. Obviously if he goes to another team, you cut his TDs in half. But he'd still be a top 6-7RB.

And when I first started watching him, I expected him to be overrated, running through huge holes, a product of the system. But I was extremely impressed with his running style, and finishing his runs. He rarely gets pushed back, always falls forward for those extra yards, and has no problem lowering his shoulder.

Still needs to work on his pass blocking and short yardage.

 

[popeye]

L. Johnson > Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, R Droughns

by far

 

[gang-wars]

Disclaimer - I don't want to take anything away from LJ and Priest's extremely impressive production in the last few years.

What I would like to discuss is how good do you think LJ is, and how much of his production is due to the O-Line and the system.

Based on the current FBG projections, LJ is expected to get about 2100 total yds and about 25 TDs. Let's assume that these projections turn out to be perfect and he gets exactly that in 2006.

Now let's look at other RBs that are ranked in the late teens, for example Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, R Droughns. If LJ can achieve a season of 2100 total yds and 25 TDs, then what do you think the other guys would get if KC was to trade LJ for one of the Joneses or Droughns tomorrow morning? Do you think the Joneses/Droughns would get about the same stats? Better? 20% worse? 40% worse?

Priest Holmes was a heck of a player, but before arriving in KC he was nothing special. I think it's a reasonable question to ask as to what he would have done if I had gone to Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, etc. instead of KC.

My personal opinion is that if you plug the Joneses/Droughns in KC in 2006, their production would be very close to what LJ would do. I am sure some of you might have different opinions but I would love to hear. Talent-wise, is LJ that superior looking at him play? It's easy to say the guy has talent when the O-Line does such a great job. How do you think he would do in another team?

LJ was drafted well before those 3, so at least coming into the league, he had more talent. He was the #1 RB on most people's board in the 2003 draft. McGahee was a surpise pick.Of course the system helps. Would LJ be a bum like other Denver RBs when they leave the system? Probably not. Would he put up those TD numbers? Nah.

Anyway not sure the point of this thread. Yes great systems help. And LJ isn't going anywhere. =)

 

[psychobillies]

Disclaimer - I don't want to take anything away from LJ and Priest's extremely impressive production in the last few years.

What I would like to discuss is how good do you think LJ is, and how much of his production is due to the O-Line and the system.

Based on the current FBG projections, LJ is expected to get about 2100 total yds and about 25 TDs. Let's assume that these projections turn out to be perfect and he gets exactly that in 2006.

Now let's look at other RBs that are ranked in the late teens, for example Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, R Droughns. If LJ can achieve a season of 2100 total yds and 25 TDs, then what do you think the other guys would get if KC was to trade LJ for one of the Joneses or Droughns tomorrow morning? Do you think the Joneses/Droughns would get about the same stats? Better? 20% worse? 40% worse?

Priest Holmes was a heck of a player, but before arriving in KC he was nothing special. I think it's a reasonable question to ask as to what he would have done if I had gone to Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, etc. instead of KC.

My personal opinion is that if you plug the Joneses/Droughns in KC in 2006, their production would be very close to what LJ would do. I am sure some of you might have different opinions but I would love to hear. Talent-wise, is LJ that superior looking at him play? It's easy to say the guy has talent when the O-Line does such a great job. How do you think he would do in another team?

I disagree. Priest was a darn good RB in Baltimore. He was never given much of a chance, but when he was, he was productive.

 

[Family Matters]

Outside of it's an interesting discussion I'm not sure it much matters. He will be in KC for a hile at least it seems and his potential is clear if you look at what he did the games he started. He's a monster in that system. Would others be as good? I can't say for sure. Would others be ebtter there than where they are? Yes I believe so because it's the perfect system for good RB. J.Lewis would run for 2000 every year in KC.

At the end of the day he's the best to have right now. LT ain't bad either. Alexander's a decent option too.

BTW-Alexander is anothe back that would thrive in K.C.

 

[Will]

I just went back and looked at the RB prospects in 2003. He was generally considered the best in a less than spectacular draft class. McGahee was the concensus number 1 until he got hurt. Onterrio and Suggs were the others mentioned with Chris Brown and Musa Smith a tier lower and Fargas making a late push with a great combine.

Before the draft the talk on Johnson back then was he was a big, strong back. Over 6 foot, 225 pounds with good speed. He was listed in the 40 at 4.40 to 4.44 that I saw. He was considered to have good hands and decent blocking skills.

The knocks were that he didn't have a super burst and ran a little too upright. He only had 1 year as a starter and didn't put up the best numbers against the tougher Big Ten defenses. (heart, or lack of, was mentioned in one article) I read two different scouts that said he had a chance to be a solid NFL contributor but lacked the elite talent to be a superstar...

I have no idea how this helps but I found it kind of interesting...

 

[FUBAR]

I just went back and looked at the RB prospects in 2003. He was generally considered the best in a less than spectacular draft class. McGahee was the concensus number 1 until he got hurt. Onterrio and Suggs were the others mentioned with Chris Brown and Musa Smith a tier lower and Fargas making a late push with a great combine.

Before the draft the talk on Johnson back then was he was a big, strong back. Over 6 foot, 225 pounds with good speed. He was listed in the 40 at 4.40 to 4.44 that I saw. He was considered to have good hands and decent blocking skills.

The knocks were that he didn't have a super burst and ran a little too upright. He only had 1 year as a starter and didn't put up the best numbers against the tougher Big Ten defenses. (heart, or lack of, was mentioned in one article) I read two different scouts that said he had a chance to be a solid NFL contributor but lacked the elite talent to be a superstar...

I have no idea how this helps but I found it kind of interesting...

I find a McGahee/LJ comparison to be the best. Put McGahee in Kansas City, and he'd put up better stats. Put LJ in Buffalo and he's wearing diapers.

 

[CA_7]

One of the most impressive things I have noticed while watching LJ is his patience. He almost pauses and waits for the opening to be created and then explodes into it.

 

[harrison74]

Larry Johnson is not a system back. He is a patient, strong, durable, and punishing runner. The difference between him and Priest is magnified in the win loss column, not the stats. He is tailor made for the NFL game, where he can singlehandedly wear down and punish the defense and milk clock. Priest was/is more of a fantasy back. He had eye popping stats, but he would eschew contact and not wear the defense down, nor would he really impact the outcome. I dont have stats in front of me but the Chiefs were not a factor in the playoffs with Priest.

With LJ, they went like 6-2, but watch those games he was featured in and you will see a smashmouth runner who routinely embarrassed defenses. If KC can EVER get some defensive help, this team will be so so tough. Why the glowing review? Because i think LJ is THAT good.

 

[Trey]

I had season tickets for Penn State when Larry Johnson was going for 2,000 yards.

It was one of the most impressive things I have ever seen on a football field. I know it was college but he was a man amongst boys in some of those games. He was going for like 200 yards in a half. And Penn State's QB play and WRs certainly didn't strike fear into any defenses around the country.

He is definitely not just a system back. He's got top 5 talent to match.

 

[Franknbeans]

he runs angry, that's all I need to know

 

[noneother]

D'arius Howard can do what LJ has done, once he gets in "NFL shape" LJ is nothing special.. don't forget the diaper comments... and I think even coach vermeil made mention of his limited cognitive ability at one time

 

[Aaronur]

I think LJ is one of the top backs in the league. Was Marshall Faulk a lesser back because he put up his numbers in St. Louis? LJ runs with speed and power, he is hard to tackle and fast enough to bust the big ones.

 

[joffer]

I don't think he's an elite talent level (e.g. LT), but he's one of those guys that is better than you may think just by watching, meaning he doesn't do anything flashy, but just produces.

 

[Family Matters]

Larry Johnson is not a system back. He is a patient, strong, durable, and punishing runner. The difference between him and Priest is magnified in the win loss column, not the stats. He is tailor made for the NFL game, where he can singlehandedly wear down and punish the defense and milk clock. Priest was/is more of a fantasy back. He had eye popping stats, but he would eschew contact and not wear the defense down, nor would he really impact the outcome. I dont have stats in front of me but the Chiefs were not a factor in the playoffs with Priest.

With LJ, they went like 6-2, but watch those games he was featured in and you will see a smashmouth runner who routinely embarrassed defenses. If KC can EVER get some defensive help, this team will be so so tough. Why the glowing review? Because i think LJ is THAT good.

Not sure a fair coparison can be made after 8 games. I agree with your analysis. It's fun watchinh him "find the hole" and then burst through it like a fat boy that had his Snicker Bar stolen.I will add too that "wearing down" defenses is more to do with the O line then the RB. Granted the RB plays his role but you've got to have 3-4 good lineman a TE and a WR or 2 blocking down the field all day in order to wear down the defense. What we see on TV is the runner but without the line the runner can't do it by himself. Too bad we don't get some of those plays once in a while.

 

[Family Matters]

he runs angry, that's all I need to know

I always talk about needing the 3 factors to be auccess for fantasy:1. Talent

2. Motivation.

3. Opportunity.

This is a great example of how much a difference the motivation can be. What happens if Holmes isn't there and he came into the league with great expectations? Would he be angry then? Probably not. So then does he lose some yardage because he's not as motivated? Makes you wonder doesn't it.

I mention LJ because it's one of the things that sets him apart from the others. Running with that type of motivation might be worth making the playoffs and winning the title. Both in fantasy and the NFL. No wonder they they're not worried about Holmes.

 

[FUBAR]

I don't think he's an elite talent level (e.g. LT), but he's one of those guys that is better than you may think just by watching, meaning he doesn't do anything flashy, but just produces.

Kind of like Emmitt Smith, without quite the same talent around him.

 

[dotman]

I'm a KC homer so maybe I'm blinded, but imo LJ is a beast.  He maximizes his situation in KC, but I think he would still be an amazing back anywhere.  He's 230 pounds and I've yet to see him get caught from behind (that I can think of).  He has also shown good vision and patience for a back with only 15/16 starts.  Although he is a decent receiver he does need work on his pass blocking, but I can't remember many backs that can take it the distance from anywhere on the field the way LJ can (1st quarter or 4th quarter).  The Droughns/Jones would do fine in KC, but I just don't think they could do what LJ does imo.

I agree. If you watch him play, he's a beast.His upper body is extremely strong. He sheds tacklers like they're girls. Watch him go out of bounds or when he scores a TD, he's rarely brought down. He usually ends up throwing the tackler off his shoulders. Great speed, great balance, good vision.

He was the 2nd RB taken in 2003, so he has the talent. Rushed for 2,000 yards in his final year at Penn State. He's a work horse RB, very physical, with great speed. Obviously if he goes to another team, you cut his TDs in half. But he'd still be a top 6-7RB.

And when I first started watching him, I expected him to be overrated, running through huge holes, a product of the system. But I was extremely impressed with his running style, and finishing his runs. He rarely gets pushed back, always falls forward for those extra yards, and has no problem lowering his shoulder.

Still needs to work on his pass blocking and short yardage.

If LJ were a good pass blocker he could arguably be considered the best back in the league. He has a long way to go in that though, but fortunately that is something that can be learned...he has all the innate traits of great RB's. Everytime he has played he has produced, and shown exceptional patience, burst, power, speed, vision, and tenacity. He's got decent hands and is very good after the catch. His only weakness has been his pass blocking, which is very important, which is why he can't be considered the best back in the league. Maybe the best runner, but not the best running back.

 

[Islander]

Thanks for the feedback.

I have not seen LJ play very much, that's why I wanted to get feedback from those who have seen him frequently. Sounds like some of you think he has more "pure" talent than Priest.

Part of this discussion is (non-fantasy) NFL talk only, which I find interesting. But for fantasy purposes, this is still relevant if you play in a dynasty league. LT and LJ are the consensus top 2 for dynasty. I have seen LT several times and everybody knows he is a top talent and he can succeed in many environments (to a different extent, of course). For LJ I was not so sure. LJ is in a great situation now. But things can change pretty fast in the NFL. For dynasty purposes, I think it's important to have some opinion about whether LJ or LT will be more productive between 2008 and 2010 for example. It's difficult to do, but that does not mean it's impossible to have an opinion.

When I say things can change fast in KC, some hypothetical examples of what could happen: Roaf and Shields could retire, their replacements (draft picks?) might not pan out, T Green might age faster than expected and be replaced by a rookie QB that does not work out, the injury bug could hit here and there, LJ could have a contract dispute (T.O., J Walker), etc. For that last comment, I have less of a concern owning T.O. in dynasty because apart from missing half a season in 2005 :X I am confident he will do well with another team if a contract dispute arises. If it was unanimous that LJ is not so talented and produces stats only because he's in KC and that most think he would not do well elsewhere, then I would view that as a risk. LT does not have as much of a chance to have a contract dispute as LJ.

My goal is not to predict injuries, retirements, contract disputes, etc. but I frequently think in terms of probabilities. It's worth doing when you are talking LT vs LJ because you have so much invested in your top pick (not as much when comparing two players that would go in the 3rd round). If a RB has top level talent, I will be more willing to disregard those "risks" than for a RB who produces at a high level mainly because of the talent around him.

For all those reasons, I find comments like "He sheds tacklers like they're girls" very valuable because it goes beyond stats and gives a better idea of the talent of the guy and allows to project what his stats could be if the conditions around him deteriorated.

 

[modus]

These are the rush defense rankings of the last nine teams LJ started against.

OAK 25th

@BUF 31st

@HOU 32nd

NE 8th

DEN 2nd

@DAL 15th

@NYG 12th

SD 1st

CIN 20th

His lowest output was 102 yards and his lowest ypc was 3.8. His overall average was 150 yards per game, and his average was 5.1 yards per carry over that stretch.

I have a hard time believing that there are five other backs in the league could match those numbers in the KC system. LJ is a legit top 5 back.

 

[Englishteacher]

If you're interested in a little cross checking, there was a very good discussion on Larry Johnson earlier this spring:

LARRY JOHNSON... does he have downside?

Interestingly enough, Pro Football Weekly's 2006 Preview magazine just came out and they had Johnson ranked as the 11th best RB in the league. Here's the list:

1. LT

2. Tiki

3. Edge

4. Portis

5. Shaun A

6. Jamal Lewis

7. CuMar

8. Ahman Green

9. Corey Dillon

10. Deuce McCallister

11. Larry Johnson

12. LaMont Jordan

13. Rudi Johnson

14. Fragile Fred

15. Willis McGahee

16. Westbrook

17. Warrick Dunn

18. Steven Jackson

19. Thomas Jones

20. Kevin Jones

21. Droughns

22. Cadillac

23. Ronnie Brown

24. Julius Jones

25. Domanick Davis

26. Willie Parker

27. Travis Henry

28. Chris Brown

29. Kevan Barlow

30. DeShaun Foster

Now the 5 guys directly ahead of LJ got their rankings based on performances prior to 2005 and most probably not what they'll do in 2006. The article notes the rankings are based on ,"...overall pro career performance, 2005 season performance and career potential." I'd definetely take LJ over the 5 ahead of him right now.

So check out the linked thread too. I think you'll find you'll get a beatdown if you badmouth LJ very much but I do think it's a reasonable question to try and assess his true talent level as opposed to simply looking at him in only a KC Chiefs perspective. I think people would be more forthcoming in acknowleding a ***** or two in the armor if say he... played for the Cleveland Browns :X in 2005 instead of a juggernaut offense where Shawn Bryson would throw up huge numbers.

 

[Futeki]

Larry Johnson is a beast. He isn't the best at anything - vision/speed/shiftiness/power/burst/patience, but he is close to the best at every single one of those. Of course he wouldn't put up such absurd per game stats outside of that system. Nobody ever has. LJ would be rock solid anywhere he went.

His talent dwarfs Priest's. I loved Priest's cutting ability and vision, but he was lacking in many areas. Priest was built for the KC system. LJ can be highly productive in any system, he just happens to be lucky enough to be in KC.

The comment about the diapers may or may not have been warranted. The only thing that matters is how he has developed and where he is now. LJ is a great RB who happens to have an excellent O-line.

 

[gang-wars]

Thanks for the feedback.

I have not seen LJ play very much, that's why I wanted to get feedback from those who have seen him frequently. Sounds like some of you think he has more "pure" talent than Priest.

Part of this discussion is (non-fantasy) NFL talk only, which I find interesting. But for fantasy purposes, this is still relevant if you play in a dynasty league. LT and LJ are the consensus top 2 for dynasty. I have seen LT several times and everybody knows he is a top talent and he can succeed in many environments (to a different extent, of course). For LJ I was not so sure. LJ is in a great situation now. But things can change pretty fast in the NFL. For dynasty purposes, I think it's important to have some opinion about whether LJ or LT will be more productive between 2008 and 2010 for example. It's difficult to do, but that does not mean it's impossible to have an opinion.

When I say things can change fast in KC, some hypothetical examples of what could happen: Roaf and Shields could retire, their replacements (draft picks?) might not pan out, T Green might age faster than expected and be replaced by a rookie QB that does not work out, the injury bug could hit here and there, LJ could have a contract dispute (T.O., J Walker), etc. For that last comment, I have less of a concern owning T.O. in dynasty because apart from missing half a season in 2005 :X I am confident he will do well with another team if a contract dispute arises. If it was unanimous that LJ is not so talented and produces stats only because he's in KC and that most think he would not do well elsewhere, then I would view that as a risk. LT does not have as much of a chance to have a contract dispute as LJ.

My goal is not to predict injuries, retirements, contract disputes, etc. but I frequently think in terms of probabilities. It's worth doing when you are talking LT vs LJ because you have so much invested in your top pick (not as much when comparing two players that would go in the 3rd round). If a RB has top level talent, I will be more willing to disregard those "risks" than for a RB who produces at a high level mainly because of the talent around him.

For all those reasons, I find comments like "He sheds tacklers like they're girls" very valuable because it goes beyond stats and gives a better idea of the talent of the guy and allows to project what his stats could be if the conditions around him deteriorated.

The oline worries for KC are vastly overrated. KC is a power rush team. End of story. The owner likes that style. The owner loves LJ. The coaches run that offense. They don't want a new offense. They don't want to change the offense. They are, and will be, a power rush offense. They drafted, and converted, the now best linemen in NFLE. Teams don't just project a year ahead, teams are thinking 4 years, 5 years, 7 years ahead. How much do you worry Denver won't be a top rushing team in the NFL? It's their system. They draft for it. They plan for it. I just don't see KC/Denver tossing their power run game for the run and shoot anytime soon.

In the NFL it's the system, and drafting for that system. KC has a system that has been extremely successful. They draft for that system. KCs bread and butter is the power run game. But by bringing in a defensive coach, hiring the OC from within, it's obvious the new HC isn't touching the offense. He's trying to fix the defense. In 2-3 years, the next HC will be a defensive HC. To fix the defense. The Colts hired a defensive coach, to fix the defense.

The Colts draft for their offense. Denver drafts for theirs. KC drafts for theirs. When you've been drafting for a type of offense for 7-8 years, and it works, you just aren't going to change it. People are high on Portis/Cooley because they are going to run the KC offense. It's a great offense. It will take them time to draft for it. But teams just don't change identities because a few linemen retire. Larry Allen left the cowboys, are they going to run the west coast offense now? No. They're a rush first offense, with or without Allen.

 

[BoulderBob]

I'd take him over any other running back in the league at this point. He was a monster at PSU, and he is turning into the same type of runner in the NFL. Obviously he wouldn't be putting up the über-HOF stats on a piss-poor team, but such is the NFL.

 

[caul]

I think one of the most undervalued aspects here is coaching. The KC OL coach should get an incredible amount of credit for the work he has done. Every single player on that team blocks well, and the OL works better as a unit then any I'v seen. To the same affect, the RB's coach I think has also done a good job working with the OL coach. There is a reason they didnt skip a beat with LJ rather then priest. Its cause everyone was on the same page, and just like they taught priest the system and he picked it up very well, LJ has been taught the system very well. Its a system built around patience, and as people have noticed, both priest and LJ's best attribute was their vision/patience. These are things that with smart coaching can be taught, and I think thats exactly what happened.

Positional Coaching is often VERY underrated by us FF geeks who dont see what goes on behind the scenes.

 

[FUBAR]

Interestingly enough, Pro Football Weekly's 2006 Preview magazine just came out and they had Johnson ranked as the 11th best RB in the league. Here's the list:

1. LT

2. Tiki

3. Edge

4. Portis

After this, I don't agree with anything.