How likely is Brady Quinn to win a SB (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

I think the only two QBs selected #1 overall who went on to actually win a superbowl were John Elway and Troy Aikman. So take 2, divide it by how many QBs have been taken #1 overall, and that's about what I think Quinn's odds of winning a superbowl are.

Just for fun, let's run through it.Overall #1 QBs in the Super Bowl era:

2005 1 1 1 Alex D. Smith 49ers QB Utah

2004 1 1 1 Eli Manning Chargers QB Mississippi

2003 1 1 1 Carson Palmer Bengals QB USC

2002 1 1 1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State

2001 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech

1999 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky

1998 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee

1993 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State

1990 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois

1989 1 1 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA

1987 1 1 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL)

1983 1 1 1 John Elway Colts QB Stanford

1975 1 1 1 Steve Bartkowski Falcons QB California

1971 1 1 1 Jim Plunkett Patriots QB Stanford

1970 1 1 1 Terry Bradshaw Steelers QB Louisiana Tech

That's 15. Bradshaw and Aikman won Super Bowls with the teams that drafted them. Plunkett and Elway won Super Bowls with different teams. Bartkowski, George, and Couch did not win Super Bowls. Four out of seven winning a super bowl is a much higher success rate than I would have guessed.

Everyone else is at least technically still a maybe.

Smith, Peyton Manning, Palmer, Vick, and Carr are still alive.

Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Eli are still alive for Super Bowls, but not with the team that drafted them, although it's within the spirit of the question IMO to count Eli as being drafted by the Giants.

Not looking too bad.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How likely is say, Matt Ryan, to win a Super Bowl?

2 1973 Bert Jones

3 1979 Jack Thompson

3 1986 Jim Everett

3 1994 Heath Shuler

3 1995 Steve McNair

3 2006 Vince Young

4 1982 Art Schlichter

6 1976 Richard Todd

6 1981 Rich Campbell

6 1992 David Klingler

11 1972 Jerry Tagge

15 1980 Marc Wilson

16 1991 Dan McGwire

17 1978 Doug Williams

18 2000 Chad Pennington

19 1977 Steve Pisarkiewicz

26 1997 Jim Druckenmiller

37 1985 Randall Cunningham

38 1984 Boomer Esiason

42 1996 Tony Banks

53 1974 Danny White

68 1988 Tom Tupa

That's a list of the top QBs selected in every draft since 1970, in which a non-QB went first overall. Doug Williams is the only QB that was first in his draft class but not number 1 overall to win a Super Bowl. While Pennington is likely to join Williams this year, and Young, obviously still has a lot of time, obviously the results of this group are pretty bleak. Cunningham. McNair and Esiason were very close, and Bert Jones had the ability to win one, too.

 

[Irish]

How likely is say, Matt Ryan, to win a Super Bowl?

2 1973 Bert Jones

3 1979 Jack Thompson

3 1986 Jim Everett

3 1994 Heath Shuler

3 1995 Steve McNair

3 2006 Vince Young

4 1982 Art Schlichter

6 1976 Richard Todd

6 1981 Rich Campbell

6 1992 David Klingler

11 1972 Jerry Tagge

15 1980 Marc Wilson

16 1991 Dan McGwire

17 1978 Doug Williams

18 2000 Chad Pennington

19 1977 Steve Pisarkiewicz

26 1997 Jim Druckenmiller

37 1985 Randall Cunningham

38 1984 Boomer Esiason

42 1996 Tony Banks

53 1974 Danny White

68 1988 Tom Tupa

That's a list of the top QBs selected in every draft since 1970, in which a non-QB went first overall. Doug Williams is the only QB that was first in his draft class but not number 1 overall to win a Super Bowl. While Pennington is likely to join Williams this year, and Young, obviously still has a lot of time, obviously the results of this group are pretty bleak. Cunningham. McNair and Esiason were very close, and Bert Jones had the ability to win one, too.

Love your optimism.

 

[thelimey]

Seeing as he went number 1 overall instead should the question now be how likely is Jamarcus Russell to win a SB with Oakland?