'Chase Stuart said:
Did people watch the Eagles last year? Winning 5-6 games would be an improvement for a team that was 4 plays from 0-16.
Did people watch the Colts, Bucs, Rams, Vikings, or Redskins the year before? Are you really shocked that bad teams sometimes get better by making no major moves except for a coaching change after you wrote articles this year profiling Schiano's Bucs and Fisher's Rams?Four of the bottom five teams in point differential last year had 7+ wins this year. Two hit 10+ and made the playoffs. I don't think 6-7 wins is out of the question for Philly, especially if people keep underestimating Kelly and thinking he runs a gimmick offense, or if people keep making the wrong mathematical calls against him while he keeps making the right ones.
The Colts added Andrew Luck. If the 2012 Colts had Curtis Painter, they probably win 4 games this year.The Bucs were able to add Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Lavonte David, Mark Barron, and got a monster year out of Gerald McCoy that they had been waiting for. They also quit on their coach in 2011 and were an embarrassment down the stretch, but were a 10-win team in 2011. I think Schiano did a good job with the run defense, but this was still a 7-9 team (when I wrote my article, they were a playoff contender). He also had a quarterback in place, and Freeman's improvement played a big role in Tampa Bay's improvement. I don't see a Kelly quarterback on the Eagles roster, let alone someone with the potential of Freeman.The Redskins added RG3. Without him, they probably win 5 games again in 2012.I think the Rams and Vikings are good examples of surprising turnarounds. But Minnesota underperformed their win total in 2011 and overperformed it in 2012, making their huge turnaround less drastic. In the pre-season, I noted that they and Miami were the two teams that
underperformed the most in 2011. This year, they overperformed, but they only went from 5.5 Pythagorean wins to 8.8. And I think much of the actual improvement had to do with Adrian Peterson and not Leslie Frazier, who was there in 2011. That leaves the Rams, who I agree represent an impressive turnaround because of a great job. I thought Fisher did an outstanding job. However, teams like Cleveland and Kansas City and Jacksonville were bad in 2011 and bad in 2012, too. It's the exception to the rule. The Eagles were flat out bad this year, and Nick Foles was 1-5 as QB with the one win being a miracle. I bet if Fisher was the HC, the Eagles would have a good chance at a 7-9 type season in 2012, too. But I think Kelly has a complete rebuilding project on his hands, and if I was him, I'd focus on 2014, not 2013, when looking at the Eagles. When Jimmy Johnson went to Dallas, they were 3-13 the prior year, then fell to 1-15 in his first season.