The Dynasty Factor
There are a few different variables that enter in to calculation of a pick value for a multi-year league. First is career length, but what about the league itself? How many teams are there? How big or small is the roster? How deep is the bench? How many starters? What matters, and by how much?
What I have done is rather complicated, but I have rolled all these numerous factors into a secret formula that produces a single number that I have labeled the "Dynasty Factor". The Dynasty Factor is the numerical value for your entire league, and it represents how valuable your draft picks are for your league. It can be used to compare different dynasty leagues with different rosters and starters, and gives an independent value to each league.
Rather than have everyone see the mathematical analysis and details of the "Secret Sauce", I will lay out some of the proportional relationships for the Dynasty Factor that you will see when you first start to use it. I will tell you that the following factors contribute to the Dynasty Factor in some way:
1. Roster Size
2. Number of Teams in the League
3. Number of Starters
4. Position(s) of Starters
The influence of each of these factors is complex, but I will attempt to give you a more intuitive feel for the tool as you start to take it for a test drive.
Roster Size - The pick values are indirectly proportional to your roster size. That is, as your roster size increases, the values decrease. To say it one more way, they are inversely related.
Why would that be? Well, if you have a deep bench, you can afford to put more rookies on your roster and wait for them to develop, so there is less pressure on you getting your picks right. You also have more room for veterans on your squad, so both factors reduce the pressure on getting the pick right (and right away), and thus the pick values go down accordingly. On the other hand, the Dynasty Factor goes up as your bench gets smaller. This makes sense - you have to "hit" on your rookies more often and they have to develop faster, else they will get cut in favor of other players. You don't have room to develop players over a period of years with a short bench.
Number of Teams in the League - As the number of teams increases, the value of the picks increase. Again, this passes the sanity check in that you have fewer draft picks and more teams are fighting for talent. Additionally, more players are rostered in the league and thus fewer talented players are available in free agency.
Number of Starters - As the number of starters increases (relative to your roster size), the bench gets shorter and the pressure on getting a good value in the draft goes up. This makes sense, as the rookie picks matter more when you start more players. Therefore, the value also goes up, and therefore Dynasty Factor is directly related to starters.
Position of Starters - This relationship is complicated, but suffice it to say that the more players that you have with shorter careers, the higher the Dynasty Factor for your league. This indicates the "rollover" of your roster, or how fast you have to churn talent through your team. If you are losing players every three or four years, you need a constant stream of young talent from the draft, increasing the value of your picks.
Note - The Dynasty Factor is NOT directly proportional to the ration of the number of starters divided my your team roster size. Why? Well, if you have 8 starters and 24 roster spots, finding starters is easier than if you have 16 starters and a bench of 48.
