How much are you willing to overpay for "your guys" (1 Viewer)

[wgoldsph]

We all have a player (or many) we feel will out preform the concensus and although you never want to overpay sometimes your evaluation is so above the concensus it just doesn't make sense not to "lose" a trade at face value in order to get your target. So I want to know how much you're willing to part with over market value. Has this kind of trade worked out for you, or do you end up actually losing in the end? Who's "your guy" for this season, how much are you willing to give up, and what's stopping you?

 

[wgoldsph]

I, personally, am beginning to feel like Garret Wilson deserves to be in the JJ/Chase tier (better a year early than a year late). Players who, in a vacuum, could fetch three first round picks. I'm debating on adding a late first on top of his current value to secure a deal.

 

[Max Power]

In a win now mode I'll always move extra value in the depth department for top end starters. Future draft picks are a renewable commodity so I'm willing to toss those around like candy to get my guys.

Rebuild mode is 110% about value and getting value. I've had a lot of luck grabbing players who are falling in rookie drafts just to trade them for better returns down the road.

 

[Zow]

I honestly try to refrain from having "guys" because I don't want to make an irrational or -EV decision. For example, I'm a huge Vikings fan and JJ is my favorite player but I still traded him away in a dynasty league last year because I believed I was getting $1.20 on the dollar and, conversely, I wouldn't pay $1.20 on the dollar for him.

 

[eighsse2]

I will overpay pretty good for a young top-of-the-line RB prospect. Offered way too much for Gibson during his rookie and sophomore years. Glad he never took me up on it. Have offered a ton for Breece or the #2 pick (Gibbs). No luck there.

RB's are like gold in our league, but as for QB and WR, there are too many to go around to go crazy over any one of them.

 

[Da Franchise]

The best trade I ever made was a massive overpay.

On a massive rebuild had stockpiled a ton of 2020 picks. I think 9 of the top 16.

At 1.07, had Jefferson rated much higher than Jeudy but also had 1.09 and 1.10. Selected Jeudy gambling that Jefferson was more likely to slip. Jefferson went 1.08.

Immediately started making offers for JJ and after some back and forth, it was clear the other manager would only accept if I gave both 1.09 and 1.10. Made the deal. Would have gone Ruggs and Raegor if keeping the picks.

I got flamed hard for that trade but had tons of picks and a note that said “Jefferson no matter what” lol. It worked out.

So to answer your question, every once in awhile I think it’s okay to go to the mattresses for a guy, but they should by their nature be very rare occasions. I don’t think it’s good to have much crazy high conviction in this game, but it’s also the most fun part of it. So don’t be afraid to shove your chips, just do it sparingly and when you absolutely can’t live with missing the boat.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Who's "your guy" for this season, how much are you willing to give up, and what's stopping you?

Just went through this in a 16 team start-up SF PPR IDP

Ended up with the 1.01 (KDS, 1 wanted 13 so I took 1/Mahomes)

I wanted to have elite WR, so I made 2 trades, costing me a 2024 1st & a 2025 1st, plus turning a 3rd into a 5th, and turning an 8th into an 11th.

So I was able to start with Mahomes/Lamb/AJB

I also traded up 1/2 a round to go get my DE1, and moved up 2 picks to take R. Stevenson.

I guess I was willing to pay a lot for my guys.

 

[Marauder]

I honestly try to refrain from having "guys" because I don't want to make an irrational or -EV decision. For example, I'm a huge Vikings fan and JJ is my favorite player but I still traded him away in a dynasty league last year because I believed I was getting $1.20 on the dollar and, conversely, I wouldn't pay $1.20 on the dollar for him.

Interesting. I'm not a Vikings fan but if I were to trade JJ, I would want way more than $1.20 on the dollar for him and I would pay more than $1.20 on the dollar to get him. Championship teams are built around elite players and I personally put a big premium on them. The more elite, the higher premium I put on them. In non-SF leagues nobody is more elite than JJ.

 

[Zow]

I honestly try to refrain from having "guys" because I don't want to make an irrational or -EV decision. For example, I'm a huge Vikings fan and JJ is my favorite player but I still traded him away in a dynasty league last year because I believed I was getting $1.20 on the dollar and, conversely, I wouldn't pay $1.20 on the dollar for him.

Interesting. I'm not a Vikings fan but if I were to trade JJ, I would want way more than $1.20 on the dollar for him and I would pay more than $1.20 on the dollar to get him. Championship teams are built around elite players and I personally put a big premium on them. The more elite, the higher premium I put on them. In non-SF leagues nobody is more elite than JJ.

It's a superflex, non-ppr league FWIW.

 

[Tanner9919]

isn't overpaying in a trade kind of showing your hand to the other guy, so that he can then counter with an offer to squeeze you for even more , knowing you're going to take the bait 100%? I've made a 'fortune' in trades with the Dallas, Raiders, Steelers homers I mean these guy will give you a bentley for CeeDee lamb or Dak 'Mr Int' Prescott or Najee D. , it's a comedy show. You should always look to draft 1 player from each of these teams with the hope they become half-decent, tThen the trade value is far greater than the players actual fantasy value.
Ya know, the rosie colored glass theory with GMs. I have George Pickens in a dynasty league, the minute he makes a circus catch or burns two CBs in a preseason game, I'm going to offer him up for trade and cash in!

 

[bostonfred]

I've had terrible luck over paying for players in dynasty. In one league i traded for Peyton Manning and within an hour the news broke about his neck. Traded for Carlos hyde, David Johnson, Percy Harvin and James robinson. Acl, terminal thumb disease, career ending headaches and an Achilles. Gave up on Derrick Henry in 3 leagues about two weeks before they finally gave him the job. I owned him in 3 leagues because I thought he was a future hall of famer. I sold ekeler when he was an exciting backup. At least that one took a year to screw me.

I have won a LOT of trades but the number that have screwed me immediately has me gun shy to ever overpay again. And also I hate dynasty

 

[Marauder]

isn't overpaying in a trade kind of showing your hand to the other guy, so that he can then counter with an offer to squeeze you for even more , knowing you're going to take the bait 100%? I've made a 'fortune' in trades with the Dallas, Raiders, Steelers homers I mean these guy will give you a bentley for CeeDee lamb or Dak 'Mr Int' Prescott or Najee D. , it's a comedy show. You should always look to draft 1 player from each of these teams with the hope they become half-decent, tThen the trade value is far greater than the players actual fantasy value.
Ya know, the rosie colored glass theory with GMs. I have George Pickens in a dynasty league, the minute he makes a circus catch or burns two CBs in a preseason game, I'm going to offer him up for trade and cash in!

I didn't take "your guys" in the initial post to mean homerism. I think we should all agree that you shouldn't overpay for players just because they play for your favorite NFL team. I read it like he said in the first sentence "players you feel will outperform the consensus." That's very different.

 

[Jayded]

Oversimplified, a round or two. Yes it’s probably an overpay, but it’s a game for fun for the most part and if I give myself a rule like that then I can acknowledge I will overpay some, but generally don’t go bonkers and ruin everything because of it.

 

[MAC_32]

Never say never, but it'd take unique circumstances. I'm patient to a fault. I'll keep burning and churning rather than over pay and hope to get lucky before I'm out of options.

Contextual example - I had a loaded SF team last year, but my QB's were garbage. Others in the league thought I'd bend if they held firm, but I opted not to. I don't remember all of my lineups but Stafford, Baker, Jameis, and Brisket were all in my lineup over the first 10 weeks or so. The Heineken owner thought he finally had me backed into a corner as Watson's return neared, but I had saved my waiver priority then Mike White got the call. After I added him he finally caved to my asking price (5th rd pick) then a taxi squad stash (Purdy) emerged late.

I rarely have the best team, but with this approach I often have a top 3-5 team so since I think winning is December is mostly luck I think this is the best method for me.

 

[Da Franchise]

isn't overpaying in a trade kind of showing your hand to the other guy, so that he can then counter with an offer to squeeze you for even more , knowing you're going to take the bait 100%?

No.