JayArEwing
Footballguy
Is there any possibility of him performing at the same level as Portis or are my hopes too high?
Please discuss
Please discuss
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How much is Ladell Betts worth now? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JayArEwing
- Start date
thatguy
Footballguy
I'd say he should crack the top 20, has a good shot at the top 15, has an outside shot at the top 10. I base this on nothing more than the fact that Washington seems like a team committed to the run and Betts is one of the more talented back ups out there.
I expect him to be decent RB2 in Portis's absence.
I expect him to be decent RB2 in Portis's absence.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Also, this opportunity is excellent timing for Betts (and for hopeful dynasty owners), because after this year he's a UFA and there's maybe a possibility of a starting job and $$$ somewhere if he does well the rest of this season. So I'm sure he'll be giving it everything he's got, regardless of the team's situation.
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oso diablo
Footballguy
I'm reminded of Chester Taylor. Same age, roughly the same size.
lions327
Footballguy
For this year, I wonder how good he will be when Brunell gets benched for Campbell. You would think there will be many plays with 8 in the box, and making the young QB beat you throwing. I'm skeptical on his value once the QB change is made...and it will be since they are pretty much done.
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
This is stating the obvious, but... he is worth more to the portis owner than anyone else in your league if you want to shop him.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Betts has looked better than Portis this year. Probably 80 yds/game and maybe a TD every year...that's what one expects from the Redskins startng RD.
redman
Footballguy
thatguy said:
Don't forget also that Betts is an excellent receiver, and he'll only get more opportunities there too. Combined with the fact that Duckett is not particularly regarded as a pass catching RB, and Betts could shine. Before we get too carried away though, I'd expect Duckett to get everything inside the five yard line and to vulture those TD's.BTW, then hand is what will keep Portis out of games, but he has a bunch of other injuries he's been fighting which have really affecged him, particularly a sprained ankle that made him look very average yesterday and not explosive. As a 'Skins fan, now that the competitive part of the season is effectively over, I'd prefer that they make sure he's healthy for 2007 rather than rush him back. Portis would buck at that, but that's what I'd like to see and the hand injury would be a good excuse to do that.
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Do you think Duckett gets involved because WAS used both Portis and Betts and they won't want to put too big a load on Betts or is it something else because other than that I can't imagine why Duckett would get anything more than he has to this point. In games where Portis didn't play, I don't recal Ducket being involved. I picked up Betts this morning after I saw how long Ports was supposed to be out and I think that he could be the biggest waiver pick up this year with the exception of Colston.thatguy said:
Rusty Syringes
Footballguy
So who is the true backup to Betts?
redman
Footballguy
Rock Cartwright is the 3rd RB on that team.So who is the true backup to Betts?
pigskin pimp
Footballguy
Better hope the kid has a gun to fire deep because D's will stack the box on running plays and blitz like crazy on passing downs.
IMO, the Betts trading value is at it's highest right now since he has shown he has talent.
Remember Portis when Patrick Ramsey was at the helm. Awful numbers as the Ds stacked the box and made Ramsey try to beat them.
Campbell is no Ramsey, but it remains to be seen if the kid can wing it.
IMO, the Betts trading value is at it's highest right now since he has shown he has talent.
Remember Portis when Patrick Ramsey was at the helm. Awful numbers as the Ds stacked the box and made Ramsey try to beat them.
Campbell is no Ramsey, but it remains to be seen if the kid can wing it.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I've pondered this same thing. Could be good to capitalize on the Portis owner's panic.
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redman
Footballguy
Campbell's arm is as good or better than Ramsey (he actually seems to throw more accurately deep than Ramsey, whose best throws were darts 10-20 yards down the middle of the field), but what has me intrigued is that he's more mobile and athletic than Ramsey. If he's heady enough to create passing opportunities with his feet, then the running game should do better than it did with Ramsey in 2004. BTW, also remember that that was a banged up o-line in 2004 that was missing Jansen.
pigskin pimp
Footballguy
Funny you say that. I totally remember Ramsey being all to stand in there and take hit after hit after hit. I thought the kid had guts, but if he had a little more twinkle in his toes...redman said:
blenderfrog
All your base are belong to us
I can't see how it can be any worse than it was with Brunnel this year. I'm guessing Campbell can throw a pass 20+ yards downfield.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
His value is now 6
some hockey scores just in,,, 6,,, 5,,, 3,, and 2.
plymkr
Footballguy
For the first time this season, Joe Gibbs said that T.J. Duckett will play a prominent role in the Redskins offense. The beneficiary of a steady, punishing Duckett would be rookie Jason Campbell, who will start his first NFL game Sunday afternoon in Tampa.
Posted November 14, by Ben Maller
http://www.benmaller.com/
Posted November 14, by Ben Maller
http://www.benmaller.com/
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redman
Footballguy
That first sentence is just a report on Gibbs' presser yesterday; the rest is the writer speculating (albeit in a way I agree with).
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
it goes without saying...Normal role for Duckett: 0-2 carriesIncreased role for Duckett: 3-? carries + goalline & short yardage possibly
redman
Footballguy
Betts is a good but not great RB. As a UFA this offseason, he at best lands with a team as their starter and resembles Lamont Jordan (2005 version as Betts is a good pass-catcher); at worst he's a #2 RB, either in Washington or elsewhere, as he has been to date. The big winners here are his owners in redraft leagues IMHO, although it remains to be seen how much work Duckett gets. Betts is auditioning for next year though, that's for sure.
redman
Footballguy
That's probably conservative, and maybe by a lot. Betts has never carried the ball a lot before. His greatest total over the course of two consecutive games was 39 carries, and that was the last two weeks of 2004. Usually he's carried the ball lightly, if not sporadically, between 6 and 12 times or so. Duckett's a UFA after this year too; I think the team will want to give both guys a good look to see whether they want to resign them.
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I think he's worth a 2nd, or a solid prospect - a Tarvaris Jackson, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Marshall, Derek Hagan. Definitely not a first rounder. If you can get that, you did great.he has increased value because he's the starter for the rest of the year. But honestly I don't expect anything better than low RB2 production - 80/100 total yards a week, TDs will be dependant on Duckett's role. If Duckett is the designated short yardage back (and he should be if the Skins coaches are thinking straight), the Betts likely only gets 1 or 2 TDs (if any) for the rest of the year. And that doesn't include Campbell learning on the job. I would think D's are going to sell out to stop the run, so that Campbell is in obvious passing situations, instead of 3rd and 3 or 4, which allows for more high percentage passing plays. So the outlook for Betts is pretty murky for the stretch run imo - I wouldnt want to count on him as anything more than a flex.Where does the value come from then? It comes from his UFA status this coming offseason. He's proven that he deserves to be a 5-10 touch a game backup RB at worst. He's a good back to have a part of an RBBC, which we all know is the new trend in the NFL. I like Betts long term value outside of Washington to be greater than it would be if Washington re-signs him.
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He has that potential. He's a good all-around back, and a grinder, not a dancer. Definitely a good "get the running game established" type RB. The question is whether he'll be signed to get the lion's share of the workload - what I doubt is that a team will sign him to make "the man" the way that Minnesota did with Chester. Houston, Denver, and Baltimore are all interesting possibilities, but Chris Brown, Ahman Green, Musa Smith + another crop of rookies will be out there. You also have possible cap cuts like Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn, and Jamal Lewis. If I had to guess, I would put Betts somewhere like the Giants (RBBC with Jacobs) or Atlanta (RBBC with Norwood assuming Dunn would be a cap cut).
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comfortably numb
Footballguy
I traded Portis and Williamson last week for
Andre Johnson and Jamal Lewis
He didn't want Betts as the 2nd player in the deal
Now he wants to know what I want for Betts
I think Betts will make a good #2RB.
He catches out of the backfield, and I expect Cambell to drop a few passes each week to Betts.
Decent starter for standard leagues
Good starter for PPR leagues
Andre Johnson and Jamal Lewis
He didn't want Betts as the 2nd player in the deal
Now he wants to know what I want for Betts
I think Betts will make a good #2RB.
He catches out of the backfield, and I expect Cambell to drop a few passes each week to Betts.
Decent starter for standard leagues
Good starter for PPR leagues
simsarge
Footballguy
As stated, as good as Betts could/may be, I dobt he'll have much running room with a very unproven rook at QB and their #1 WR gimpy. With a healthy Moss and a couple games under JC's belt, Betts may have ok numbers. But I can't see him doing much for at least a couple games.
If you have room on the bench, he's worth a flyer. Otherwise the skins are a work in progress.
Sooooo having said that, given my track record, I'd say you're looking at a second half MVP. 1,500 yards and 10 TD's
If you have room on the bench, he's worth a flyer. Otherwise the skins are a work in progress.
Sooooo having said that, given my track record, I'd say you're looking at a second half MVP. 1,500 yards and 10 TD's
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I can't see Betts getting much more than 18 carries on any given day. To me his value is going to land in PPR/Redraft leagues. He's an average #2 with his breakput possibility hinging on Campbell's dependence on the dump off pass ala Tomlinson/Brees when Brees became the starter.
Thus far this season Washington hasn't been the RB juggernaut we'd anticipated and things aren't about to change.
Thus far this season Washington hasn't been the RB juggernaut we'd anticipated and things aren't about to change.
hellz_fireflies
Footballguy
It's going to be Betts most yardage..but Duckett short yards and goldline carries(like he did in Atlanta)! 
Ted Stickles
Footballguy
What would you expect for Betts in PPR....? Campbell definitely scares me, but as other posters have stated, the dump off passes are absolutely GOLDEN in PPR.... and Betts already has 30 catches on the year.
Just got offered Steve Smith and Lee Evans for Driver and Betts....and I am not sure what the H3LL is keeping me from having already accepted this offer... ARGH!
Just got offered Steve Smith and Lee Evans for Driver and Betts....and I am not sure what the H3LL is keeping me from having already accepted this offer... ARGH!
good question, take the bird in the hand with Smith and even if you throw evans away, call it Smith for Driver. Betts may be good but you can lock in Steve Smith and not sweat it.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I've been offered Wayne or Driver by the Portis owner.
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
Here is where I think Betts value lies:
Wk 16 vs. Rams
For God sake look what Maurice Morris did against the Rams.
Wk 16 vs. Rams
For God sake look what Maurice Morris did against the Rams.
H.K.
Footballguy
Brunell had the ability to read a defense and dump to Betts, Campbell will be gunning it and forcing throws downfield based on his inexperience. Probably a safe bet to expect more than 50% drop off in Betts recpts for the second hald of the season. Betts is WAY overhyped right now. There are only negatives associated with him:1) No Brunell means no more receptions2) New QB means stack the box & stop the run and let him beat you 3) Duckett gets all goal line workBetts is good for about 15 carries 46 yards and maybe one catch a week on average the rest of the season.
This makes no sense whatsoever. Why wouldn't an inexperienced QB look to dump off passes to the RBs? Especially if he's going to be blitzed as often as people think.
redman
Footballguy
You might be right but in my view this is overly pessimistic. You're forgetting that Portis too caught a lot of balls (17 in parts of 8 games), and that passes to RB's in Saunders' offense are not always check-downs but are designed plays. Betts tended to get the majority of those designed plays, something that won't change because of his clear superiority as a receiver. Duckett doesn't pose much competition there as he's not known as much of a receiver. Anyway, whatever he loses in receiving stats he figures to more than make up for running the ball more.
good breakdown HK but until we see what happens Betts upside is worthy of finding a spot for him if he's a free agent. These three scenarios are all possible and each could be negatives to Betts value but they could also each be wrong and we won't know that until we see it. We do know that Betts has played well when he's played running and catching. I agree that the biggest factor will be Campbell's performance which most likely will be rough to start with since DEF's will try to blitz more to rattle the young QB. Nevertheless, in this case I'm a believer that the juice is worth the squeeze.
H.K.
Footballguy
Inexperienced QB's throw to the primary WR and try to force it when they aren't open. They do this instead of going through their progressions and then dumping off. This is why they are inexperienced. The speed of the NFL game takes some time to get used to, so its a learning curve.
H.K.
Footballguy
If this were a simple Betts in for Portis at RB, I'd be much more optimistic. However, the QB switch is the killer for me. I guess people see feature RB's on the WW this late in the season and feel like they hit the lottery, but I am trying to temper expectations. The Redskins look like they've packed it in at this point. Anyway, good luck!
Sometimes. Some inexperienced QBs dump off more than most QBs because it's a safety blanket for them. LT had more receptions in Brees's first few years than his last two in San Diego, and now is getting a lot of receptions again under Rivers.
Not a juggernaut, but Washington's been solid. They rank well in conventional stats and both Betts and Portis have high DVOAs. I'm having a hard time understanding the pessimism in the thread (unless it's really not that pessimistic and I'm a poor reader). The Skins have a sweet playoff schedule as well.I notice Washington's defense ranks pretty much at the bottom, 30th in yards, 29th in DVOA. So far there is a lot of talk about the effect of the QB change (a lot of good reading) - any chance the defense improves to allow for more rushing attempts? The 2005 team ranked 4th in attempts. The 2006 version ranks 12th so far.
Thanks HK, good luck to you as well. BTW, upon further review, I think the smart play here is to try to trade away Betts to somebody else who will take the risk and give me some lockdown value that I can put some confidence in. I'm not sure who that is right now but I bet there are a lot of trade candidate owners out there right now that are looking at this as a Portis for Betts deal without thinking about the QB change. I better work fast though since my trade deadline is this Friday on Yahoo. I think I have to get a deal accepted tonight.
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