How old is too old for a RB? (1 Viewer)

[TedHead]

Priest is what 32 and is not the stud he once was and other RBs are getting a bit long in the tooth as well. So what age is normally the point where all the years of running really catches up with these players?

 

[David Yudkin]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s. The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions). RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

 

[(HULK)]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s. The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions). RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

How many starting RBs are over 2500 touches?That number seems low to me. Some of the younger guys, like LT and Portis have to be approaching that number already.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Seems to me that runningbacks have their last decent season at 31. Drop off a cliff at 32. Of course there are exceptions.

 

[David Yudkin]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s.  The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions).  RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

How many starting RBs are over 2500 touches?That number seems low to me. Some of the younger guys, like LT and Portis have to be approaching that number already.

Faulk, Martin, and Dillon are already over. Guys going over 2500 this year will be Barber, Edge, and Dunn.LT's at 2,000 and change. Portis is at 1,400.

 

[wannabee]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s.  The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions).  RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

How many starting RBs are over 2500 touches?That number seems low to me. Some of the younger guys, like LT and Portis have to be approaching that number already.

Portis has 1399 touches (in 4 years)LT has 2044 touches (in 5 years)

Alexander has 1905 touches (in 6 years, one less than LT!)

These numbers do not include playoffs.

ETA: David beat me to it. But, it is funny how we think Alexander will break down but LT has more touches in less years.

 

[coolnerd]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s.  The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions).  RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

How many starting RBs are over 2500 touches?That number seems low to me. Some of the younger guys, like LT and Portis have to be approaching that number already.

400 touches in a year is a huge amount times 6 years =2400 touchesconsidering most Rbs come into the league @ 21or 22 so you are looking at 27/28 with only 100 touches to play with.

 

[wannabee]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s.  The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions).  RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

How many starting RBs are over 2500 touches?That number seems low to me. Some of the younger guys, like LT and Portis have to be approaching that number already.

400 touches in a year is a huge amount times 6 years =2400 touchesconsidering most Rbs come into the league @ 21or 22 so you are looking at 27/28 with only 100 touches to play with.

I think the average career for a RB is around 4.5 years so it does sound right. Granted, some last forever. But, that is not necessarily the norm.

 

[Verbal Kint]

we had some conversation about this a little while ago, in case you want to refer to it.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=226664&hl=

 

[Snotbubbles]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s. The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions). RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

You have to look at all factors when looking at decline. 2500 is a pretty good barometer for decline when you look at players who were #1s early. Other guys you need to look at age, like Priest. I prefer to use 3000-3200 touches as my decline-barometer. I just think that medical advances, diet, training, etc. are becoming more advanced so that players can last longer.

 

[LHUCKS]

I just think that medical advances, diet, training, etc. are becoming more advanced so that players can last longer.

Not only that, but the culture of the game has changed. It used to be more frowned upon to avoid hits as a runningback, now runningbacks are open about trying to avoid hits...more of an emphasis has been placed on remaining healthy and avoiding wear and tear...it's all about the dollar bill.Great thread by the way, knowing these metrics is a key ingredient to assessing risk.

 

[EBF]

It all depends on the player, but I start to get nervous after 1700-1900 touches.

 

[David Yudkin]

I used to think that becoming a starting RB later was better than earlier using the caveat of "lower mileage = lower risk." However, IMO, I no longer really buy into that. A body can normally endure X amount of punishment, so if a RB has 2500 carries at 27 or 2500 carries at 31, I would think that the younger guy has a better chance of staying fresher than the older one.

IMO, unless that RB had an EXTREMELY light workload, than I would still say it's a 32 year old in a 32 year old's body. Last year, of course, Mike Anderson did very well at 32 but he only had one year as a starter and hardly ever carried the ball beyond his rookie year.

To that end, someone like Tiki Barber has had an intense workload the past several seasons and that fact coupled with his age and his total career workload makes him stand out as a POTENTIAL risk. This is not to say that he is going to pull a Priest Holmes and get hurt overnight, but there is added risk in a player like Barber.

As for science, conditioning, and longevity, I do think that advances in training and medicine can get players back from what used to be career ending injuries and can also extend careers. HOWEVER, I am not so sure that that will keep an elite RB at the elite level far beyond the age of 30. He may have a decent PPG average but could easily miss a lot of games or he could be hampered by nagging injuries.

Yes, there are some examples of older backs doing well (Riggins, Payton, Allen, Martin, for example), but some of the same backs could also fall into the "players on the decline" category (Holmes, Faulk, Martin, etc.

In my mind, I would feel most comfortable in having these "older" RB on my fantasy squad as a RB2 but probably not as a RB1. While that may be unrealistic, that is probably where they should be slotted given a) age, b) their career workload, c) their recent workload, and d) the history that most of the older backs have ranked in the RB2 range.

IMO, that's where the smart money would have these guys ranked and projected, but in practical reality no one would think of Tiki Barber as say the #15 RB although they probably should. As evisence, look where Faulk had been getting picked yet where did he rank? After his huge 2004, where did Martin get drafted and where did he rank? How about Dillon?

The bottom line is that there have been only 12 times when a RB 31 or older has scored 200 fantasy points. I picked 200 points because that generally is the line in the sand for a RB1 for fantasy purposes. Here they are:

1 John Riggins, 1983, 34, 281

2 Curtis Martin, 2004, 31, 278

3 Walter Payton, 1985, 31, 269

4 Ricky Watters, 2000, 31, 239

5 Walter Payton, 1986, 32, 237

6 Tony Dorsett, 1985, 31, 235

7 Lenny Moore, 1964, 31, 219

8 Floyd Little, 1973, 31, 218

9 Ottis Anderson, 1989, 32, 213

10 John Riggins, 1984, 35, 212

11 James Brooks, 1989, 31, 208

12 Mike Anderson, 2005, 32, 2000

That's it. And you will notice that there is not a plethora of recent RB--the list spands 40 years. At least for now, science has not helped many guys past 31.

Make no doubt about it, investing heavily in a 31 year RB is very risky. It could pay off, but historical results point to mixed results at best.

 

[Couch Potato]

That's it. And you will notice that there is not a plethora of recent RB--the list spands 40 years. At least for now, science has not helped many guys past 31.

Make no doubt about it, investing heavily in a 31 year RB is very risky. It could pay off, but historical results point to mixed results at best.

Good post, David. Today's defensive player is generally bigger, stronger, faster too... so even though today's RB may be better-conditioned, the punishment he receives may also be greater. Just a thought.

 

[cstu]

I just think that medical advances, diet, training, etc. are becoming more advanced so that players can last longer.

Not only that, but the culture of the game has changed. It used to be more frowned upon to avoid hits as a runningback, now runningbacks are open about trying to avoid hits...more of an emphasis has been placed on remaining healthy and avoiding wear and tear...it's all about the dollar bill.Great thread by the way, knowing these metrics is a key ingredient to assessing risk.

Watch LT and you'll see that he goes out of bounds to avoid hits every chance he gets. That's the main reason I think he'll be able to play longer. He's spent a lot of time with Emmitt talking about how to have longevity as a RB.

 

[amnesiac]

 

[LHUCKS]

I just think that medical advances, diet, training, etc. are becoming more advanced so that players can last longer.

Not only that, but the culture of the game has changed. It used to be more frowned upon to avoid hits as a runningback, now runningbacks are open about trying to avoid hits...more of an emphasis has been placed on remaining healthy and avoiding wear and tear...it's all about the dollar bill.Great thread by the way, knowing these metrics is a key ingredient to assessing risk.

Watch LT and you'll see that he goes out of bounds to avoid hits every chance he gets. That's the main reason I think he'll be able to play longer. He's spent a lot of time with Emmitt talking about how to have longevity as a RB.

Agreed, LT has a legitimate shot at Emmit's record because he runs smart...he doesn't take on free safetyies or linebackers...he gets his yards and then finds a happy place. :gilmore:It was interesting to see Herm Edwards publicly state that LJ is going to need to change his runningstyle if he's going to remain healthy...you would never have heard that in the 80's.

 

[John Mamula]

Seems to me that runningbacks have their last decent season at 31. Drop off a cliff at 32. Of course there are exceptions.

31 is my rule of thumb, and typically even then people are taking them too high (see Tiki this year).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I just think that medical advances, diet, training, etc. are becoming more advanced so that players can last longer.

Not only that, but the culture of the game has changed. It used to be more frowned upon to avoid hits as a runningback, now runningbacks are open about trying to avoid hits...more of an emphasis has been placed on remaining healthy and avoiding wear and tear...it's all about the dollar bill.Great thread by the way, knowing these metrics is a key ingredient to assessing risk.

That's what it is really about - taking hits.

In other words, not all touches are created equal. If LT2 routinely steps out of bounds, the 2500 number is far less "mileage" than for a between the tackles RB.

 

[LHUCKS]

I just think that medical advances, diet, training, etc. are becoming more advanced so that players can last longer.

Not only that, but the culture of the game has changed. It used to be more frowned upon to avoid hits as a runningback, now runningbacks are open about trying to avoid hits...more of an emphasis has been placed on remaining healthy and avoiding wear and tear...it's all about the dollar bill.Great thread by the way, knowing these metrics is a key ingredient to assessing risk.

That's what it is really about - taking hits.

In other words, not all touches are created equal. If LT2 routinely steps out of bounds, the 2500 number is far less "mileage" than for a between the tackles RB.

Yep, huge difference between 200 Alstott carries and 200 Tomlinson carries.

 

[coolnerd]

For starters, it's doubtful Priest will play this year, but that's a different story.

The magic age for RB is generally 30, and not many RB have excelled into their 30s.  The other milestone that I have found to potentially be troubling is the 2,500 touch mark (rushes and receptions).  RB have typically gone hill from that point on (although there are some exceptions).

How many starting RBs are over 2500 touches?That number seems low to me. Some of the younger guys, like LT and Portis have to be approaching that number already.

400 touches in a year is a huge amount times 6 years =2400 touchesconsidering most Rbs come into the league @ 21or 22 so you are looking at 27/28 with only 100 touches to play with.

I think the average career for a RB is around 4.5 years so it does sound right. Granted, some last forever. But, that is not necessarily the norm.

If you buy into the notion that it is carries and not pure age, look at what even taking your star RB for one series a game does: 3 touches @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so 350 touches a year.350 times 7years= 2450 touches.

 

[hollaatyaboy]

Shaun Alexander is starting the season at the age of 29 and with 1905 total touches.

Going by what is said above it seems like he is done in 2 years....and then falls off of a cliff?

I don't buy that one for some reason just yet. Maybe its that he's never missed a game or maybe he got a late start (69 touches in first season) but I see him being very productive for a few more...

 

[John Mamula]

Shaun Alexander is starting the season at the age of 29 and with 1905 total touches.

Going by what is said above it seems like he is done in 2 years....and then falls off of a cliff?

This is my long term projection for him. After two more years I will start to significantly devalue him in my projections.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The bottom line is that there have been only 12 times when a RB 31 or older has scored 200 fantasy points. I picked 200 points because that generally is the line in the sand for a RB1 for fantasy purposes. Here they are:1 John Riggins, 1983, 34, 281 2 Curtis Martin, 2004, 31, 278 3 Walter Payton, 1985, 31, 269 4 Ricky Watters, 2000, 31, 239 5 Walter Payton, 1986, 32, 237 6 Tony Dorsett, 1985, 31, 235 7 Lenny Moore, 1964, 31, 219 8 Floyd Little, 1973, 31, 218 9 Ottis Anderson, 1989, 32, 213 10 John Riggins, 1984, 35, 212 11 James Brooks, 1989, 31, 208 12 Mike Anderson, 2005, 32, 2000

Can you do a historical number for the age of 30. Because the numbers you're giving would seem to indicate that the magic number is 31 not 30.5 players in the last 3 years have hit 200 FP and been 30+ (Holmes 2003, Martin 2004, Dillon 2004, Anderson 2005, Barber 2005).

 

[David Yudkin]

Shaun Alexander is starting the season at the age of 29 and with 1905 total touches.

Going by what is said above it seems like he is done in 2 years....and then falls off of a cliff?

I don't buy that one for some reason just yet. Maybe its that he's never missed a game or maybe he got a late start (69 touches in first season) but I see him being very productive for a few more...

No one said that a RB will fall apart completely at a certain age or after a certain workload. But typically that's when the nagging injuries start, somewhat serious injuries can occur (although they can obviously happen at 21 or 31), and overall proudction appears to start going south.Again, from a VALUE perspective, if the majority of older RBs have been drafted Top 10 and went on to miss significant time or been less productive, is that really a good draft day investment?

As for Alexander, if in a couple of years he dropped from 1800 rushing yards to 1400 to 1100, is that not a decline? Granted, those are still solid seasons, but if people are drafting him based on previous performance (requiring a high draft pick) instead of future performance they will end up with a medicocre return on investment in most cases. This is not to say he goes from RB1 to RB50 overnight, but in a couple years the odds are he will start declining. Personally, I see him dropping off some this year as the bar he set last year was very high and tough to repeat. Not many guys have 1800 yard rushing seasons.

I would be concerned with SA's workload. There *should* be an article I wrote on heavy RB workloads up any day now, and the numbers point to a decent deceline in those situations.

 

[John Mamula]

No one said that a RB will fall apart completely at a certain age or after a certain workload. But typically that's when the nagging injuries start, somewhat serious injuries can occur (although they can obviously happen at 21 or 31), and overall proudction appears to start going south.

Again, from a VALUE perspective, if the majority of older RBs have been drafted Top 10 and went on to miss significant time or been less productive, is that really a good draft day investment?

This is exactly right. Nobody is saying that at 31 the RB will completely bust, however his risk profile starts to get so high that the price you have to pay for that RB in the early to mid first round is no longer worth it.

 

[David Yudkin]

The bottom line is that there have been only 12 times when a RB 31 or older has scored 200 fantasy points. I picked 200 points because that generally is the line in the sand for a RB1 for fantasy purposes. Here they are:

1 John Riggins, 1983, 34, 281

2 Curtis Martin, 2004, 31, 278

3 Walter Payton, 1985, 31, 269

4 Ricky Watters, 2000, 31, 239

5 Walter Payton, 1986, 32, 237

6 Tony Dorsett, 1985, 31, 235

7 Lenny Moore, 1964, 31, 219

8 Floyd Little, 1973, 31, 218

9 Ottis Anderson, 1989, 32, 213

10 John Riggins, 1984, 35, 212

11 James Brooks, 1989, 31, 208

12 Mike Anderson, 2005, 32, 2000

Can you do a historical number for the age of 30. Because the numbers you're giving would seem to indicate that the magic number is 31 not 30.5 players in the last 3 years have hit 200 FP and been 30+ (Holmes 2003, Martin 2004, Dillon 2004, Anderson 2005, Barber 2005).

That's why they typically say RB north of 30 (meaning more than 30) and that 30 is usually the limit (although some will argue what the age should be). THAT'S where people are making a case that 30 year old RB can still be productive, as there have been a few guys in recent seasons. Still there are only 12 guys in this set.1 Priest Holmes 2003 30 373

2 Tiki Barber 2005 30 305

3 Walter Payton 1984 30 271

4 Charlie Garner 2002 30 256

5 Corey Dillon 2004 30 251

6 Lamar Smith 2000 30 230

7 Emmitt Smith 1999 30 229

8 Tom Matte 1969 30 220

9 Tony Dorsett 1984 30 206

10 Chuck Muncie 1983 30 206

11 James Brooks 1988 30 205

12 John Riggins 1979 30 203

13 Barry Sanders 1998 30 202

14 Ricky Watters 1999 30 201

15 Floyd Little 1972 30 200

 

[coolnerd]

Shaun Alexander is starting the season at the age of 29 and with 1905 total touches. 

Going by what is said above it seems like he is done in 2 years....and then falls off of a cliff? 

I don't buy that one for some reason just yet.  Maybe its that he's never missed a game or maybe he got a late start (69 touches in first season) but I see him being very productive for a few more...

Actually, there is example after example of this very thing happening and one of the reasons for the thread. One day the star RB literally wakes up and either due to chronological age or the number carries just can't get the job done. What we are trying to figure out is away to predict that happening or which guys will be the exceptions to the general rules being thrown around.

 

[Couch Potato]

If you buy into the notion that it is carries and not pure age, look at what even taking your star RB for one series a game does: 3 touches @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so 350 touches a year.

350 times 7years= 2450 touches.

You might want to look at your math again."3 touches @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so..." ...50, not 350 touches a year.

 

[coolnerd]

If you buy into the notion that it is carries and not pure age, look at what even taking your star RB for one series a game does:  3 touches  @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so 350 touches a year.

350 times 7years=  2450 touches.

You might want to look at your math again."3 touches @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so..." ...50, not 350 touches a year.

In a previous post i had used the notion of 400 touches- 50 touches = 350 touches

 

[Couch Potato]

If you buy into the notion that it is carries and not pure age, look at what even taking your star RB for one series a game does: 3 touches @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so 350 touches a year.

350 times 7years= 2450 touches.

You might want to look at your math again."3 touches @ 16 =48 which i will round to 50 so..." ...50, not 350 touches a year.

In a previous post i had used the notion of 400 touches- 50 touches = 350 touches

Ah, I see. Gotcha.

 

[EBF]

Shaun Alexander is starting the season at the age of 29 and with 1905 total touches.

Going by what is said above it seems like he is done in 2 years....and then falls off of a cliff?

I don't buy that one for some reason just yet. Maybe its that he's never missed a game or maybe he got a late start (69 touches in first season) but I see him being very productive for a few more...

I definitely think it's sell high time on him. His value will never go up and will almost certainly go down, possibly a LONG way down.

 

[painkiller]

Shaun Alexander is starting the season at the age of 29 and with 1905 total touches.

Going by what is said above it seems like he is done in 2 years....and then falls off of a cliff?

I don't buy that one for some reason just yet. Maybe its that he's never missed a game or maybe he got a late start (69 touches in first season) but I see him being very productive for a few more...

I definitely think it's sell high time on him. His value will never go up and will almost certainly go down, possibly a LONG way down.

I agree completely -- sell high (very high in this case). If I had him in a dynasty or keeper league I would try trading him to see what I could get -- hopefully a couple younger guys that are very promising.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

When will Football start catching up with Baseball in terms of more sophisticated stats?

Baseball measures every conceivable variable -- scatter diagrams for a hitter's batted balls vs. different types of pitches, FB%, Contact Rate, Batting Avg for Balls put into play, etc.

Football, in this day and age, should be able to track "hits" for every skill position player. 1 Full hit for a legitimate 1-on-1 NFL caliber tackle (or hit on a QB after a pass or on a WR breaking up a pass, etc). 0.5 for an "arm tackle" or a "Deion-style" dive and trip up. Scores of 1.5 and 2.0 could also be registered for certain forms of gang tackling. Sure there would be some degree of subjectivity (not anymore than distinguishing between a line drive and fly ball in baseball), but then we would have some real data to objectively measure "in season" and "career" hits amongst different skill position players.

 

[tri-man 47]

Some other "touch" totals:

Warrick Dunn: 2,374

Corey Dillon: 2,648

Marshall Faulk: 3,603

Curtis Martin: 4,002

That's why I like Cedric Houston in New York, and rookies Maroney in New England and Jerious Norwood in Atlanta.

 

[John Mamula]

Some other "touch" totals:

Warrick Dunn: 2,374

Corey Dillon: 2,648

Marshall Faulk: 3,603

Curtis Martin: 4,002

That's why I like Cedric Houston in New York, and rookies Maroney in New England and Jerious Norwood in Atlanta.

TJ Duckett down?

 

[Thorpe]

When will Football start catching up with Baseball in terms of more sophisticated stats?

Baseball measures every conceivable variable -- scatter diagrams for a hitter's batted balls vs. different types of pitches, FB%, Contact Rate, Batting Avg for Balls put into play, etc.

Football, in this day and age, should be able to track "hits" for every skill position player. 1 Full hit for a legitimate 1-on-1 NFL caliber tackle (or hit on a QB after a pass or on a WR breaking up a pass, etc). 0.5 for an "arm tackle" or a "Deion-style" dive and trip up. Scores of 1.5 and 2.0 could also be registered for certain forms of gang tackling. Sure there would be some degree of subjectivity (not anymore than distinguishing between a line drive and fly ball in baseball), but then we would have some real data to objectively measure "in season" and "career" hits amongst different skill position players.

It'd be too hard to judge. Most of the time it is the hits that look like nothing happened where the damage takes place. Players usually get right up after someone gives them a highlight reel hit. Most of the time when they go to the sideline in pain, you have to look at the play 5 times in slow motion to figure out what did the damage.Another factor in all of this is that teams like to plan ahead. If they have a 30 year old RB who they like, they will still spend a high draft pick on a RB for the future. If you spend a pick, you will want him on the field within two years, so your 30 old RB will be pushed aside, even if he is still effective.

Also, many older RBs have to switch teams, either because there is a younger RB ready to play or because his cap figure is too high, and there is no gaurantee that the new team will be a good fit. In fact it will probably be a poor fit, because otherwise they would not be looking to bring in a new RB. The old RB may just want to get paid one more time, so he may not care that the team he is going to is garbage.

I would feel comfortable with an 30 plus year old RB if:

1) His backup is not a high draft pick and doesn't have a big contract

2) Consistent performance the last few years with no injuries and not leading the league in carries.

3) Not changing teams

4) Team is competitive, or the the player has a reputation for always being in shape and playing hard.

5) Not too much turnover in terms of coach, o line, qb, or offensive strategy.

which is a very selective list.

 

[tri-man 47]

Some other "touch" totals:

Warrick Dunn: 2,374

Corey Dillon: 2,648

Marshall Faulk: 3,603

Curtis Martin: 4,002 

That's why I like Cedric Houston in New York, and rookies Maroney in New England and Jerious Norwood in Atlanta.

TJ Duckett down?

Nah ...I just don't see him taking the main role. He'll continue to steal the red zone TDs, though, which is a consideration.

 

[Billy1x]

The system also a huge affect. Emmitt Smith jogged for 4 yds before getting hit and Barry Sanders spun away from solid hits. Ricky Williams (under Wahnstadt) and Earl Cambell just ran into a solid wall. Same for Eddie George. Tremendous back and knee compressions take their toll.

 

[Bri]

So what age is normally the point where all the years of running really catches up with these players?

I think there's the "special" RBs and then another group. The possible HOFers often seem to be also blessed with the ability to play longer.

 

[Demons]

I believe that the age wall is all about recovery time/ability for RB's. RB is a position that involves a higher number of hits than QB or WR. This in turn translates to more injuries. At approximately 30 years of age, a person's recovery time from injury gets worse.

Some RB's can hide from the "wall" to an extent, by not taking the same hits as others. An up-the-middle type back will take more hits, increasing his risk of injury.

In other words, I don't think the mileage or number of carries is as big of a consideration as the ability of the player to recover quickly. The number of carries would, I believe, indicate the risk level with regard to past injuries having a cumulative effect. The carry numbers would need to be reduced or increased by some type of factor than indicates the player's ability to avoid hard hits.