wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/2012/6/2/how-to-spot-break-out-players-and-2nd-half-studs-wrs.html
Every year it seems guys come out of nowhere on the depth chart and a select, lucky few, who snag them off the wire, ride them to championships. As much as it seems to be luck of the draw, there are ways of hedging your bets to increase your chances of grabbing one of these guys. Within the past few years I have spent a lot of time trying to figure this, seemingly, unsolvable puzzle out.
As much as we all like to rely on Studs( Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Ray Rice, etc) the odds are that most will not be playing by the end of the year(injury, resting for playoffs) and they tend to let us down.
The following is basically a rough guideline of the criteria I look at when judging whether or not I think someone is ready to break out whenever they get the opportunity.
1. The player himself
A. When I'm searching for the next second half star or break out guy in general, first thing I do is look at the previous years stats.
things to check for in order of importance:
WRs/TEs
1.Catch %:
2.YPC(yard per catch):
3.Targets:
4.Yards:
5.Catches:
6.Touchdowns:*
*touchdowns is pretty much worthless when your simply looking at it as a number, obviously if the guy is a good goaline guy then you can predict a few more, but considering most non stud WRs aren't getting plays run for them in the redzone, its not worth time thinking about.
A great example is Arrelious Benn, who two years ago, got stopped on the 1 yard line not 1, not 2, not even 3, but 4 times.
A. guy that I have been extremely interested in this offseason is Brandon Lafell so lets look at this filled out with his stats
Brandon Lafell:
catch %: 64.3%
YPC:17.0
Targets: 56
Yards: 613
Catches: 36
Touchdowns: 3
Lafell's raw numbers from last year were extremely impressive, but since it was on such a small amount of targets , their wasn't a lot of buzz. to prove his numbers are solid, lets extrapolate these to a solid amount of targets. lets say 110(34 players had over 110 targets last year)
Lafell's fantasy stats with 110 targets:
Targets 110
catches(110x.64): 70
Yards(70x17):1190
Touchdowns: 6
Now, I'm not saying that Lafell is going to get 110 targets this year, nor am I saying that his stats will look like this if he does. I'm saying he impressed with the opportunity he was given last year.
I think 17 YPC would probably be an unrealistic expectation because he would start to get more attention from the defense as the year goes on with that many targets. I would probably say he falls in around 15-15.5 ypc range, but again thats an extremely rough number. his target % would probably drop a little also as 64% would be just about tops in the league with that many targets. I would drop that to around 55% , again, a rough estimate.
even with the drop in % and yards this would be my (extremely rough) projection of what I think Lafell would have gone for last year.
catch%:55
YPC:15.5
targets: 110
catches(.55x 110): 61
Yards(61x 15.5): 933
Touchdowns: 4
Good for WR31 in .5 PPR leagues last year.
Now, what this tells me, is even if I shave down his numbers(considering the obvious increase in targets) to clearly less than how he produced, he would have still been a solid WR3.
B. watch whatever video of him you can get your hands on:
-Obviously there is a negative stigma about using youtube as a means of reference, but , I've found the quality of information has grown extensively within the past year or two and theres a lot of info on everyone.
-The other option I found was NFL rewind. it costs like 20$ but it allows you to watch any play from the past season
These were the two best ones I found
2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6ccljvaCdU
2010
-How they catch the ball in traffic
-catch away from the body
-deep ball catches
honestly, I usually go with my gut, but I feel like if you watch someone, within a few plays you can tell if they have the natural ability to go up and get it or not.
4.Speed and quickness-
I think everyone knows how to see that, but usually you have to put it into context of their size also.
5. After the catch ability
-broken tackles
-avoided tackles
-how easily they go down after first contact
-speed after catch
-quickness and explosion of first few steps after the catch
Percy Harvin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDGXMn5-4jE
6. Seperation-
I put this down on the list because if your looking for a breakout candidate and they have some of the 5 strengths listed above, I would imagine they would be able to seperate.
kind of tough to judge speration also via youtube so I would suggest NFL rewind for this one, although heres a few that are blatantly obvious via youtube.
Mike Wallace:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHkPXcJupuU
Desean Jackson:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKL7bOnm_mI
7.Size-
probably the worst way to judge a WR by itself, but when you put things in context, it can also be a valuable tool.
for instance, a guy who is 5'11" and runs a 4.4 at the combine is somewhat average, when a 6'3" guy runs a 4.4 ...quite impressive. Other than that, size alone doesn't tell a whole lot of the story. 90% of WRs in the league are between 5'11" and 6'3", which seems like alot, but only has so much of an affect against pro corners.
8. Type of coverage-
Obviously NFL rewind is needed for this one. It is always important to note the emphasis the defense is putting on the player. There is a HUGE difference in getting open when you are the teams #1 option as opposed to the #2 or #3 . Certain guys can make the jump and some cant. A guy like Brandon Lafell is someone I see as a nice WR2 for carolina and someone who benefits greatly from having Steve Smith across from him. On the other hand, guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald need very little around them to still be affective, effective? ehh you know what I mean.
C. Situation and opportunity
This is what separates the guys who can break out right away from the ones who need an injury or change of scenery to get more of an opportunity.
1. Quarterback
2. Other WRs on the team
3. Tight End- although most of the time it helps to have a TE who need attention, you dont want to many targets taken away
4. System- sometimes the player just isn't the right fit.
5. Coaches and coordinators
D. Outside Opinion
Once I've gone through all of that I start to look what everyone else is saying. obviously you do not want to base anything on someone else's opinion, but once you have your own, other thoughts can be huge in pointing out things you missed.
list of references(in no particular order):
1. training camp blurbs
2. Websites with scouting reports and opinions.
3. TV(ESPN and NFL.COM)
4. Message boards( footballguys for life!)
5. Beat Writers
there is information EVERYWHERE, never be to proud to hear something new. Even if you dont agree with something, sometimes it will make you look a little deeper to prove them they are wrong
Alright, that ridiculously long explanation is how I figured out the list below. I seperated them into two different groups, the guys who will have the opportunity from the beginning of the year and the guys who will need a bit of luck or an injury to break out aka the guys who could break out the second half of the season and win you a championship.
Beginning break out:
1. Brandon lafell- WR 2 Carolina
2. Doug Baldwin WR 2 Seattle
3. Alshon Jeffery(rookie(no pro video on him but I trust he has good hands from what I saw in college)- WR 2 behind Marshall... great hands catcher and has a Qb in Cutler who will fire it into close coverage.
4. Robert Meachem WR 1 San Diego
5. Jerome Simpson WR 2 Minnesota
6. BJ Cunningham - Follow Dolphins Camp
7.Donnie Avery - Follow Indianapolis camp
8. Jon Baldwin WR 2 Kansas City
9. Greg Salas- Follow Rams Camp
Second half break out:
1.Vincent Brown WR 3 San Diego
2.Josh Cirbbs-although this is only if the Browns decide to expand his role in the offense... which they most likely wont :(
3. Emmanuel Sanders WR 3 Pittsburgh
4. Randall Cobb WR 3/ WR 4 Green Bay
5 Arrelious Benn- WR 3 Tampa Bay
6. Ryan Broyles- WR 3 Detroit
7. Leonard Hankerson WR 3 Washington
8. Chaz Schilens WR 3 New York
9. Jacoby Ford W 3 Oakland
Every year it seems guys come out of nowhere on the depth chart and a select, lucky few, who snag them off the wire, ride them to championships. As much as it seems to be luck of the draw, there are ways of hedging your bets to increase your chances of grabbing one of these guys. Within the past few years I have spent a lot of time trying to figure this, seemingly, unsolvable puzzle out.
As much as we all like to rely on Studs( Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Ray Rice, etc) the odds are that most will not be playing by the end of the year(injury, resting for playoffs) and they tend to let us down.
The following is basically a rough guideline of the criteria I look at when judging whether or not I think someone is ready to break out whenever they get the opportunity.
1. The player himself
A. When I'm searching for the next second half star or break out guy in general, first thing I do is look at the previous years stats.
things to check for in order of importance:
WRs/TEs
1.Catch %:
2.YPC(yard per catch):
3.Targets:
4.Yards:
5.Catches:
6.Touchdowns:*
*touchdowns is pretty much worthless when your simply looking at it as a number, obviously if the guy is a good goaline guy then you can predict a few more, but considering most non stud WRs aren't getting plays run for them in the redzone, its not worth time thinking about.
A great example is Arrelious Benn, who two years ago, got stopped on the 1 yard line not 1, not 2, not even 3, but 4 times.
A. guy that I have been extremely interested in this offseason is Brandon Lafell so lets look at this filled out with his stats
Brandon Lafell:
catch %: 64.3%
YPC:17.0
Targets: 56
Yards: 613
Catches: 36
Touchdowns: 3
Lafell's raw numbers from last year were extremely impressive, but since it was on such a small amount of targets , their wasn't a lot of buzz. to prove his numbers are solid, lets extrapolate these to a solid amount of targets. lets say 110(34 players had over 110 targets last year)
Lafell's fantasy stats with 110 targets:
Targets 110
catches(110x.64): 70
Yards(70x17):1190
Touchdowns: 6
Now, I'm not saying that Lafell is going to get 110 targets this year, nor am I saying that his stats will look like this if he does. I'm saying he impressed with the opportunity he was given last year.
I think 17 YPC would probably be an unrealistic expectation because he would start to get more attention from the defense as the year goes on with that many targets. I would probably say he falls in around 15-15.5 ypc range, but again thats an extremely rough number. his target % would probably drop a little also as 64% would be just about tops in the league with that many targets. I would drop that to around 55% , again, a rough estimate.
even with the drop in % and yards this would be my (extremely rough) projection of what I think Lafell would have gone for last year.
catch%:55
YPC:15.5
targets: 110
catches(.55x 110): 61
Yards(61x 15.5): 933
Touchdowns: 4
Good for WR31 in .5 PPR leagues last year.
Now, what this tells me, is even if I shave down his numbers(considering the obvious increase in targets) to clearly less than how he produced, he would have still been a solid WR3.
B. watch whatever video of him you can get your hands on:
-Obviously there is a negative stigma about using youtube as a means of reference, but , I've found the quality of information has grown extensively within the past year or two and theres a lot of info on everyone.
-The other option I found was NFL rewind. it costs like 20$ but it allows you to watch any play from the past season
These were the two best ones I found
2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6ccljvaCdU
2010
-How they catch the ball in traffic
-catch away from the body
-deep ball catches
honestly, I usually go with my gut, but I feel like if you watch someone, within a few plays you can tell if they have the natural ability to go up and get it or not.
4.Speed and quickness-
I think everyone knows how to see that, but usually you have to put it into context of their size also.
5. After the catch ability
-broken tackles
-avoided tackles
-how easily they go down after first contact
-speed after catch
-quickness and explosion of first few steps after the catch
Percy Harvin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDGXMn5-4jE
6. Seperation-
I put this down on the list because if your looking for a breakout candidate and they have some of the 5 strengths listed above, I would imagine they would be able to seperate.
kind of tough to judge speration also via youtube so I would suggest NFL rewind for this one, although heres a few that are blatantly obvious via youtube.
Mike Wallace:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHkPXcJupuU
Desean Jackson:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKL7bOnm_mI
7.Size-
probably the worst way to judge a WR by itself, but when you put things in context, it can also be a valuable tool.
for instance, a guy who is 5'11" and runs a 4.4 at the combine is somewhat average, when a 6'3" guy runs a 4.4 ...quite impressive. Other than that, size alone doesn't tell a whole lot of the story. 90% of WRs in the league are between 5'11" and 6'3", which seems like alot, but only has so much of an affect against pro corners.
8. Type of coverage-
Obviously NFL rewind is needed for this one. It is always important to note the emphasis the defense is putting on the player. There is a HUGE difference in getting open when you are the teams #1 option as opposed to the #2 or #3 . Certain guys can make the jump and some cant. A guy like Brandon Lafell is someone I see as a nice WR2 for carolina and someone who benefits greatly from having Steve Smith across from him. On the other hand, guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald need very little around them to still be affective, effective? ehh you know what I mean.
C. Situation and opportunity
This is what separates the guys who can break out right away from the ones who need an injury or change of scenery to get more of an opportunity.
1. Quarterback
2. Other WRs on the team
3. Tight End- although most of the time it helps to have a TE who need attention, you dont want to many targets taken away
4. System- sometimes the player just isn't the right fit.
5. Coaches and coordinators
D. Outside Opinion
Once I've gone through all of that I start to look what everyone else is saying. obviously you do not want to base anything on someone else's opinion, but once you have your own, other thoughts can be huge in pointing out things you missed.
list of references(in no particular order):
1. training camp blurbs
2. Websites with scouting reports and opinions.
3. TV(ESPN and NFL.COM)
4. Message boards( footballguys for life!)
5. Beat Writers
there is information EVERYWHERE, never be to proud to hear something new. Even if you dont agree with something, sometimes it will make you look a little deeper to prove them they are wrong
Alright, that ridiculously long explanation is how I figured out the list below. I seperated them into two different groups, the guys who will have the opportunity from the beginning of the year and the guys who will need a bit of luck or an injury to break out aka the guys who could break out the second half of the season and win you a championship.
Beginning break out:
1. Brandon lafell- WR 2 Carolina
2. Doug Baldwin WR 2 Seattle
3. Alshon Jeffery(rookie(no pro video on him but I trust he has good hands from what I saw in college)- WR 2 behind Marshall... great hands catcher and has a Qb in Cutler who will fire it into close coverage.
4. Robert Meachem WR 1 San Diego
5. Jerome Simpson WR 2 Minnesota
6. BJ Cunningham - Follow Dolphins Camp
7.Donnie Avery - Follow Indianapolis camp
8. Jon Baldwin WR 2 Kansas City
9. Greg Salas- Follow Rams Camp
Second half break out:
1.Vincent Brown WR 3 San Diego
2.Josh Cirbbs-although this is only if the Browns decide to expand his role in the offense... which they most likely wont :(
3. Emmanuel Sanders WR 3 Pittsburgh
4. Randall Cobb WR 3/ WR 4 Green Bay
5 Arrelious Benn- WR 3 Tampa Bay
6. Ryan Broyles- WR 3 Detroit
7. Leonard Hankerson WR 3 Washington
8. Chaz Schilens WR 3 New York
9. Jacoby Ford W 3 Oakland
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