How valuable was Josh Cribbs last season? (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

30 punt returns, 405 yards, 1 TD (13.5 Y/R)

59 kick returns, 1809 yards, 2 TD (30.7 Y/R)

Cribbs had the second most return yards in NFL history last year.

But how valuable was he? Assuming you knew you were getting Cribbs' performance again this year, in a re-draft (not dynasty) of all NFL players, how high would he go? After how many QBs? After how many RBs? How many defensive players?

 

[vikingdave]

He wouldnt get drafted in any league I play in...people play with ST'ers?

 

[Anjin-san]

I think he's talking real NFL

Even so, some leagues do use kick returners: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=400204

 

[Chase Stuart]

Sorry, yes, I'm talking real NFL, not FF.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

He wouldnt get drafted in any league I play in...people play with ST'ers?

Zealots leagues give return yards. He just went for the second most money in Z30 of any free agent with Rudnicki beating out Chaos Commish for him, IIRC. I generally think those two know what they're doing.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Sorry, yes, I'm talking real NFL, not FF.

He's pretty versatile and I've heard he will be more involved offensively this season. Very underrated NFL wise and worth a roster spot in big leagues.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Sorry, yes, I'm talking real NFL, not FF.

He's pretty versatile and I've heard he will be more involved offensively this season. Very underrated NFL wise and worth a roster spot in big leagues.

Well I just mean if the 32 NFL teams threw all the players into the pool and had a re-draft, how would Cribbs rate? And focusing just on his returner status.

 

[vikingdave]

oh, the part about redraft/dynasty threw me off I guess...

IMO he still wouldnt get picked that high, cause he doesnt have enough impact, he is great at what he does, but there are enough guys who can do what he does, not as good, but still get by, while QBs, RBs, WRs, DEs, among others, who play every play and have more opportunities to make a play would be more scarce...

 

[MAC_32]

He was the main reason the Browns had any chance of beating Pittsburgh last year, one KR for TD and another back to the 4. Supposedly his role will be expanded this year, I was screaming all last year to get him some trick plays but they were never implemented; maybe this year. He'll never be more than a gimmick WR, but he's an amazing returner, a part of the game that seems to be gaining more and more respect with each passing year.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I think there's an exceptional value to what he does, butttttttt

If all the players are thrown into a pool, he'd go late.

You'll see quarterbacks and tackles go, corners and linebackers, and receivers that are good at just that...receiving all before a great kick returner. I think a team is going to put special teams last on the list of what to build for.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Sorry, yes, I'm talking real NFL, not FF.

He's pretty versatile and I've heard he will be more involved offensively this season. Very underrated NFL wise and worth a roster spot in big leagues.

Well I just mean if the 32 NFL teams threw all the players into the pool and had a re-draft, how would Cribbs rate? And focusing just on his returner status.

Ehh...not that early. Maybe top 6 among "mostly returner only" guys. But he probably has more upside than some of them.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Good responses so far.

But just focus on what Cribbs actually did. If you could guarantee what he did last year again for '08, how high would that move him? I understand returners can be pretty volatile from year to year, so I'm just trying to focus on how valuable Cribbs actually was in '07 (or a hypothetical '08).

 

[GregR_2]

30 punt returns, 405 yards, 1 TD (13.5 Y/R)

59 kick returns, 1809 yards, 2 TD (30.7 Y/R)

Cribbs had the second most return yards in NFL history last year.

But how valuable was he? Assuming you knew you were getting Cribbs' performance again this year, in a re-draft (not dynasty) of all NFL players, how high would he go? After how many QBs? After how many RBs? How many defensive players?

What is the Y/R for an average punt returner and an average kick returner?

 

[Chaos Commish]

He wouldnt get drafted in any league I play in...people play with ST'ers?

Zealots leagues give return yards. He just went for the second most money in Z30 of any free agent with Rudnicki beating out Chaos Commish for him, IIRC. I generally think those two know what they're doing.

Ruds won him for less than I was willing to go. I got busy with family, birthdays, graduations, etc., and that auction slipped my mind. Imo, he's developing the rest of his game and they will find a way to get him more involved. Zealots scoring returns yardage made him worth the effort. I think he's an injury to Braylon or Donte away from a lot of targets. Deep rosters make him worth looking at even if they don't score return yardage. If it's a copycat league and Savage and Crennel are watching the success their old employer is having with Welker, they must look at Cribbs and salivate a little at the possibilities. It's a hunch as much as anything though. I took him late in a survivor recently because of an interview he did on Best Damned. He thinks they have big plans for him.

Well I just mean if the 32 NFL teams threw all the players into the pool and had a re-draft, how would Cribbs rate? And focusing just on his returner status.

I think he would rate shockingly high (well, shockingly to most). Look how high Royal went in the draft this year. Dynamic, elite return skills are very valuable.

 

[Donnybrook]

Sorry, yes, I'm talking real NFL, not FF.

He's pretty versatile and I've heard he will be more involved offensively this season. Very underrated NFL wise and worth a roster spot in big leagues.

Well I just mean if the 32 NFL teams threw all the players into the pool and had a re-draft, how would Cribbs rate? And focusing just on his returner status.

40th round or lower. It is hard to evaluate his potential as a WR since he was a college QB. Kick returners are good one year and gone the next. I heard rumors that David Tyree might not even make the Giants roster even though he helped them win a SB.

 

[vikingdave]

Yep, what happened to Dante Hall, he had what, 2 good seasons then disappeared for the most part?

And Hester would definitely go before Cribbs...

 

[SSOG]

I think Cribbs was a lot closer to Hester in value last year than most people would think. He didn't get the pub because he didn't have the TDs, but he was so much more consistently dangerous. I think a player that gets you an extra 10 yards on every drive would have a ton of value- maybe 10th round? Maybe earlier?

This is assuming, of course, that we could attribute all of Cribbs' success to Cribbs himself and none to his blockers.

 

[bostonfred]

30 punt returns, 405 yards, 1 TD (13.5 Y/R)

59 kick returns, 1809 yards, 2 TD (30.7 Y/R)

Cribbs had the second most return yards in NFL history last year.

But how valuable was he? Assuming you knew you were getting Cribbs' performance again this year, in a re-draft (not dynasty) of all NFL players, how high would he go? After how many QBs? After how many RBs? How many defensive players?

Do we know that every other player in this imaginary redraft would have the same year they had in 2007, too?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think he would rate shockingly high (well, shockingly to most). Look how high Royal went in the draft this year. Dynamic, elite return skills are very valuable.

Not to mention that Cribbs is also a demon in ST coverage, and in general an energy player that seemed to ignite the Browns when he would make a big play. Teams did kick away from him at times, conceding field position to avoid giving him a chance a la Hester.

 

[Chase Stuart]

30 punt returns, 405 yards, 1 TD (13.5 Y/R)

59 kick returns, 1809 yards, 2 TD (30.7 Y/R)

Cribbs had the second most return yards in NFL history last year.

But how valuable was he? Assuming you knew you were getting Cribbs' performance again this year, in a re-draft (not dynasty) of all NFL players, how high would he go? After how many QBs? After how many RBs? How many defensive players?

Do we know that every other player in this imaginary redraft would have the same year they had in 2007, too?

Yes.

 

[mr blond]

I think he would rate shockingly high (well, shockingly to most). Look how high Royal went in the draft this year. Dynamic, elite return skills are very valuable.

Not to mention that Cribbs is also a demon in ST coverage, and in general an energy player that seemed to ignite the Browns when he would make a big play. Teams did kick away from him at times, conceding field position to avoid giving him a chance a la Hester.

Cribbs lead the Browns in ST tackles last year with 23. If you take into account all of Cribbs' ST efforts when answering the original question his value would increase greatly. You'd have to draft him above Hester, IMO. In just measuring return game vs. return game, I'd say Hester and Cribbs are about even. They'd probably be drafted in similar positions. There's been talk that Cribbs will get more involved in the offense this coming season, but when you combine his returns and ST coverage he's already on the field quit a bit. Barring injury, I believe Cribbs will be included in some unique offensive pakages (lining up at QB, etc.) but won't see consistent offensive plays.

 

[Chase Stuart]

30 punt returns, 405 yards, 1 TD (13.5 Y/R)

59 kick returns, 1809 yards, 2 TD (30.7 Y/R)

Cribbs had the second most return yards in NFL history last year.

But how valuable was he? Assuming you knew you were getting Cribbs' performance again this year, in a re-draft (not dynasty) of all NFL players, how high would he go? After how many QBs? After how many RBs? How many defensive players?

What is the Y/R for an average punt returner and an average kick returner?

In 2007, it was 22.3 and 9.3.

 

[Donnybrook]

10th round SSOG? You have to be kidding? That is ridiculously high for a guy that so far plays nothing bur special teams. You are telling me that you rather have a return specialist that a player starting on your offensive or defensive lines.

Also I rather have a guy that can play a position and special teams like Terrance McGee, Ellis Hobbs, and even Pacman Jones, if he wasn’t a head case. Ellis Hobbs will probably not play special teams this year since he is too valuable to the Pats defence in the absence of Asante Samuel.

Also don’t understand the Royal comparison unless people believe that Royal is incapable of being a starting wideout and a special teams ace.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Al Davis would take him super early

 

[DawnBTVS]

I'd honestly think about the 10th-13th round.

Keep in mind field position is one of the biggest assets an offense can get. If I have a player who can traditionally give my team an average starting position of let's say the 35 on kickoff returns and the 25-30 on punt returns, that's huge. It's a lot harder for an offense to score points when they have to drive 75+ yards than they do 65+ and Cribbs would be money.

Not to mention you'd also get a gunner who leads the team in tackles at 23. Underrated aspect but great teams usually have solid special teams and I'd think about nabbing him high just for that. Patriots fans know how valuable WR Kelley Washington was in that regard last year (and Larry Izzo in the past) and I'd get the bonus of a dynamic kick returner too.

 

[GregR_2]

10th round SSOG? You have to be kidding? That is ridiculously high for a guy that so far plays nothing bur special teams. You are telling me that you rather have a return specialist that a player starting on your offensive or defensive lines.

Also I rather have a guy that can play a position and special teams like Terrance McGee, Ellis Hobbs, and even Pacman Jones, if he wasn’t a head case. Ellis Hobbs will probably not play special teams this year since he is too valuable to the Pats defence in the absence of Asante Samuel.

Also don’t understand the Royal comparison unless people believe that Royal is incapable of being a starting wideout and a special teams ace.

I don't think that is an accurate phrasing of the informed choice.What you're faced with is the same question as in fantasy football. Who is worth more, the kick returner I draft in the 10th round (Cribbs) and the LB I draft in the 11th round.... or the LB I draft in the 10th round and the kick returner I draft in the 11th round.

Ok, obviously you don't have to take the kick returner in the 11th if you don't take one in the 10th. But regardless of the rounds, the thought process holds. You have to consider what the drop off is at each position. If you think there is a big drop off between Hester, Cribbs and the rest of the returners you could get later, but that there are a dozen comparable LB so you're no worse off with the one you take the next round, then you should take the returner over the LB. It won't just be a 1 round drop in reality since average kick returners will go much much later, so you'll need to figure out how it ripples down through your entire draft.

I don't know if the 10th round is the right place where the returner's value comes out ahead, but I'd have a hard time saying that it's ridiculously high. An FF draft with 7 positions and 12 teams of 20 players is already a very hard problem to come up with the best answer. Make it a real NFL draft with 32 teams and 15-20+ positions and 50+ players and about the best we could do is guess. We are talking about a player who is gaining you 600+ yards a year over the average player at his position with the same number of touches. If we were talking about two RBs, one who gained 2000 combined yards a season and one gaining 1400 yards a season, that's a pretty big value drop going from one to the other even if they have similar touchdowns. And the returner is doing it in 89 touches while the RB is probably doing it in 300. (And that's not taking into account field position from teams kicking out of bounds or kicking short rather than kicking to your guy.)

 

[Jayrod]

Last year in my IDP dynasty league, Cribbs was the #45 overall fantasy scorer in the league. He finished as the 13th WR.

With his return yardage and points for tackles, he is a mid round pick (rounds 5 - 10) and returners tend to be a lot more consistant scorers than the average wide receiver.

 

[tombonneau]

Well, the Bears took Hester in the second for just his return skills, without even knowing how he would perform in the NFL.

I'm pretty sure some team picking in the late first, knowing what they know now, would have taken Hester in a heartbeat.

Cribbs I think if you guaranteed that performance would be worth a late first, early second.

 

[GregR_2]

Well, the Bears took Hester in the second for just his return skills, without even knowing how he would perform in the NFL.I'm pretty sure some team picking in the late first, knowing what they know now, would have taken Hester in a heartbeat.Cribbs I think if you guaranteed that performance would be worth a late first, early second.

Chase's scenario is not a rookie draft though. It's a complete NFL redraft. The first round is going to have Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Champ Bailey, Julius Peppers, etc, in it.

 

[Donnybrook]

10th round SSOG? You have to be kidding? That is ridiculously high for a guy that so far plays nothing bur special teams. You are telling me that you rather have a return specialist that a player starting on your offensive or defensive lines.

Also I rather have a guy that can play a position and special teams like Terrance McGee, Ellis Hobbs, and even Pacman Jones, if he wasn’t a head case. Ellis Hobbs will probably not play special teams this year since he is too valuable to the Pats defence in the absence of Asante Samuel.

Also don’t understand the Royal comparison unless people believe that Royal is incapable of being a starting wideout and a special teams ace.

I don't think that is an accurate phrasing of the informed choice.What you're faced with is the same question as in fantasy football. Who is worth more, the kick returner I draft in the 10th round (Cribbs) and the LB I draft in the 11th round.... or the LB I draft in the 10th round and the kick returner I draft in the 11th round.

Ok, obviously you don't have to take the kick returner in the 11th if you don't take one in the 10th. But regardless of the rounds, the thought process holds. You have to consider what the drop off is at each position. If you think there is a big drop off between Hester, Cribbs and the rest of the returners you could get later, but that there are a dozen comparable LB so you're no worse off with the one you take the next round, then you should take the returner over the LB. It won't just be a 1 round drop in reality since average kick returners will go much much later, so you'll need to figure out how it ripples down through your entire draft.

I don't know if the 10th round is the right place where the returner's value comes out ahead, but I'd have a hard time saying that it's ridiculously high. An FF draft with 7 positions and 12 teams of 20 players is already a very hard problem to come up with the best answer. Make it a real NFL draft with 32 teams and 15-20+ positions and 50+ players and about the best we could do is guess. We are talking about a player who is gaining you 600+ yards a year over the average player at his position with the same number of touches. If we were talking about two RBs, one who gained 2000 combined yards a season and one gaining 1400 yards a season, that's a pretty big value drop going from one to the other even if they have similar touchdowns. And the returner is doing it in 89 touches while the RB is probably doing it in 300. (And that's not taking into account field position from teams kicking out of bounds or kicking short rather than kicking to your guy.)

Well according to Chase's standard below, we are not talking about FF.

Well I just mean if the 32 NFL teams threw all the players into the pool and had a re-draft, how would Cribbs rate? And focusing just on his returner status.

I think a kick returner would not even enter my mind as a NFL GM until I had the other 22 positions on the team set. I know that his fantasy value is another story. I actually drafted him Z58.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think a kick returner would not even enter my mind as a NFL GM until I had the other 22 positions on the team set.

Really? So the worst starting safety in the league is more valuable to you than the best return man?

 

[GregR_2]

10th round SSOG? You have to be kidding? That is ridiculously high for a guy that so far plays nothing bur special teams. You are telling me that you rather have a return specialist that a player starting on your offensive or defensive lines.

Also I rather have a guy that can play a position and special teams like Terrance McGee, Ellis Hobbs, and even Pacman Jones, if he wasn’t a head case. Ellis Hobbs will probably not play special teams this year since he is too valuable to the Pats defence in the absence of Asante Samuel.

Also don’t understand the Royal comparison unless people believe that Royal is incapable of being a starting wideout and a special teams ace.

I don't think that is an accurate phrasing of the informed choice.What you're faced with is the same question as in fantasy football. Who is worth more, the kick returner I draft in the 10th round (Cribbs) and the LB I draft in the 11th round.... or the LB I draft in the 10th round and the kick returner I draft in the 11th round.

Ok, obviously you don't have to take the kick returner in the 11th if you don't take one in the 10th. But regardless of the rounds, the thought process holds. You have to consider what the drop off is at each position. If you think there is a big drop off between Hester, Cribbs and the rest of the returners you could get later, but that there are a dozen comparable LB so you're no worse off with the one you take the next round, then you should take the returner over the LB. It won't just be a 1 round drop in reality since average kick returners will go much much later, so you'll need to figure out how it ripples down through your entire draft.

I don't know if the 10th round is the right place where the returner's value comes out ahead, but I'd have a hard time saying that it's ridiculously high. An FF draft with 7 positions and 12 teams of 20 players is already a very hard problem to come up with the best answer. Make it a real NFL draft with 32 teams and 15-20+ positions and 50+ players and about the best we could do is guess. We are talking about a player who is gaining you 600+ yards a year over the average player at his position with the same number of touches. If we were talking about two RBs, one who gained 2000 combined yards a season and one gaining 1400 yards a season, that's a pretty big value drop going from one to the other even if they have similar touchdowns. And the returner is doing it in 89 touches while the RB is probably doing it in 300. (And that's not taking into account field position from teams kicking out of bounds or kicking short rather than kicking to your guy.)

Well according to Chase's standard below, we are not talking about FF.

Well I just mean if the 32 NFL teams threw all the players into the pool and had a re-draft, how would Cribbs rate? And focusing just on his returner status.

I think a kick returner would not even enter my mind as a NFL GM until I had the other 22 positions on the team set. I know that his fantasy value is another story. I actually drafted him Z58.

I wasn't talking about fantasy. I was talking about Chase's real NFL example. I said the decision facing you is the same in both places, so my comments were addressed to Chase's hypothetical. You need to make your decision based on if the combination of Cribbs plus your LB you'll take in the 11th is better overall for your team than the combination of the LB you take in the 10th plus the next kick returner available. Obviously adjusting the example rounds and positions as necessary to fit the situation.

What I am trying to point out is that at some point the quality of the normal position starters left isn't going to change a whole lot over the next few rounds. You don't miss out on much quality if you wait. There will still be capable players of similar ability.

But there are a very small number of top notch return men with a much bigger drop off in ability after that. Cribbs, Hester, Andre Davis, Leon Washington. Those are the only guys who were consistent threats to take it to the house. At some point the drop off if you don't get one of those 4 is considerably more than it might be going from, say, the 30th best OLB to the 34th best.

 

[SSOG]

10th round SSOG? You have to be kidding? That is ridiculously high for a guy that so far plays nothing bur special teams. You are telling me that you rather have a return specialist that a player starting on your offensive or defensive lines. Also I rather have a guy that can play a position and special teams like Terrance McGee, Ellis Hobbs, and even Pacman Jones, if he wasn’t a head case. Ellis Hobbs will probably not play special teams this year since he is too valuable to the Pats defence in the absence of Asante Samuel. Also don’t understand the Royal comparison unless people believe that Royal is incapable of being a starting wideout and a special teams ace.

Cribbs averaged an extra 8 yards per kickoff return and 4 yards per punt return compared to a league-average player at his position. Multiply that by his number of returns and that's an extra 600 yards that Cribbs was solely responsible for* compared to a league-average returner. Do you really think that teams averaged more than 10 players who were worth 600+ yards more than a league-average player at the same position? And this is probably UNDERRATING Cribbs, because it doesn't count the times that teams squibbed or kicked out of bounds to avoid him (and therefore gave up even MORE field position).*operating under the assumption, remember, that all of Cribbs' return yardage can be attributed solely to Cribbs and none to his blockers, which is admittedly a dumb assumption, but that's the rules of the "what if?" game we're playing right now.Let's use New England's offense as a basis for comparison. New England's offense totaled 1341 more yards than the #17 offense in the league. TOTAL. Responsibility for those 1341 yards has to be divided between Brady, Moss, Welker, Maroney, and all of the offensive linemen, while Cribbs doesn't have to share credit for his 600 yards with anyone (remember, we're assuming that he's solely responsible for that yardage).Granted, there's more to the game of football than just yards (points, for instance), but since field position is a fluid concept, points are heavily dependent on yards. There's a huge correlation between a team's scoring offense rank and a team's average starting field position. That's not because a great Special Teams inspires an offense to play better, that's because it's so much easier to score when you have fewer yards to gperating under the parameters of this hypothetical, I don't think it's at all unreasonable to suggest that Cribbs would easily be worth a 10th rounder. Actually, looking at the numbers, I'd be more than willing to revise that projection upwards- Cribbs was probably one of the 200 most influential players in the league (under the assumptions of this game), which would make him a 7th rounder or better.

 

[Donnybrook]

But there are a very small number of top notch return men with a much bigger drop off in ability after that. Cribbs, Hester, Andre Davis, Leon Washington. Those are the only guys who were consistent threats to take it to the house. At some point the drop off if you don't get one of those 4 is considerably more than it might be going from, say, the 30th best OLB to the 34th best.

I disagree I believe there are many elite return men in the NFL but they are used sparingly due to the fact that the teams feel that their primary position is more important. Terrance McGhee, Pacman Jones, Brain Westbrook, Ellis Hobbs and Dominique Cromartie are all examples. If these guys were devoting all of they time to special teams, they all have the ability to surpass Cribbs. We will see this year if Hestor ST number suffer after he becomes a fulltime WR. Also, it is a team sport. Chicago has had a tradition of good return men prior to Hestor arriving. Nasthan Vasher returned a couple to house prior to Hestor. Jerry Azumah prior to that was also a very good returner. How do seperate the ability of an individual from the performance of the unit as a whole.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think a kick returner would not even enter my mind as a NFL GM until I had the other 22 positions on the team set.

Really? So the worst starting safety in the league is more valuable to you than the best return man?

 

[Donnybrook]

Kick return yardage leaders by year from Pro-football-reference.com:

2007 Josh Cribbs (24) 1,809 CLE2006 Chris Carr (23) 1,762 OAK2005 Chris Carr (22) 1,752 OAK2004 Dante Hall (26) 1,718 KAN2003 Josh Scobey (24) 1,684 ARI2002 Michael Lewis (31) 1,807 NOR2001 Ronney Jenkins (24) 1,541 SDG2000 MarTay Jenkins (25) 2,186 ARIHow likely is it that Josh Cribbs repeats as kick return leader? Unlikely, IMO.How valuable was Chris Carr this year? Raiders failed to match a 2 million dollar offer by the Titans.

 

[Donnybrook]

I think a kick returner would not even enter my mind as a NFL GM until I had the other 22 positions on the team set.

Really? So the worst starting safety in the league is more valuable to you than the best return man?

Why would I draft return man when I could bring in several undrafted rookie for a tryout? Both Cribbs and Carr were undrafted.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Kick return yardage leaders by year from Pro-football-reference.com:

2007 	Josh Cribbs (24)	1,809	CLE2006 	Chris Carr (23)	1,762	OAK2005 	Chris Carr (22)	1,752	OAK2004 	Dante Hall (26)	1,718	KAN2003 	Josh Scobey (24)	1,684	ARI2002 	Michael Lewis (31)	1,807	NOR2001 	Ronney Jenkins (24)	1,541	SDG2000 	MarTay Jenkins (25)	2,186	ARI

How likely is it that Josh Cribbs repeats as kick return leader? Unlikely, IMO.How valuable was Chris Carr this year? Raiders failed to match a 2 million dollar offer by the Titans.

He tied for 4th most returns in the league. He may not get enough returns to lead the league again in 2008, but i wouldn't bet against him because of his high yards per return which I would say will still be high. He has a goood size/speed combo and breaks tackles unlike a lot of return guys.

 

[SSOG]

How do seperate the ability of an individual from the performance of the unit as a whole.

We can't. Luckily, we don't have to- the parameters of the hypothetical are that he'd post the exact stats he posted last year, meaning we're assuming he's wholly responsible for his production (or, if you prefer, that drafting Cribbs automatically gives us his blocking units, too).

 

[GregR_2]

Kick return yardage leaders by year from Pro-football-reference.com:

2007 	Josh Cribbs (24)	1,809	CLE2006 	Chris Carr (23)	1,762	OAK2005 	Chris Carr (22)	1,752	OAK2004 	Dante Hall (26)	1,718	KAN2003 	Josh Scobey (24)	1,684	ARI2002 	Michael Lewis (31)	1,807	NOR2001 	Ronney Jenkins (24)	1,541	SDG2000 	MarTay Jenkins (25)	2,186	ARI

How likely is it that Josh Cribbs repeats as kick return leader? Unlikely, IMO.How valuable was Chris Carr this year? Raiders failed to match a 2 million dollar offer by the Titans.

Though for Chase's hypothetical it doesn't matter, going forward in the real NFL it does. First though, I don't think the above is a good way to judge whether Cribbs will be on top, by just looking at the top total kick return yardage guys. Because that is driven more by number of returns than by yards. To judge the quality of a returner I would pay more attention to the combination of a high yards per return with having had a large enough number of kick returns to make the average representative of what you might expect from him over the long term.Chris Carr was first not because he was one of the best kick returners in the game but because the Raiders defense was so bad that he got more kick return opportunities. In 2006 he averaged 25.5 yards per kick, in 2005 he averaged 24 yards per kick. Amongst kick returners who had 20 kick returns or more, that ranked him 11th out of 37 in 2006 and 14th out of 37 in 2005. Not exactly amongst the top of the return men in what you could expect from him per kick.If you want to discuss the likelihood of Cribbs repeating, I'd instead look at how Cribbs did. After having just said Carr wasn't that special a kick returner, neither was Cribbs. In 2006, he was worse than Carr was, ranking 15th with a 24.5 y/r. In 2005, Cribbs was one spot in front of Carr at 13th with a 24.3 y/r.So for the real NFL, part of the question might be, has Cribbs just improved at his kick return game? Did Cleveland's special teams improve (i.e. the blocking)? A combination? Or was a statistical oddity of a cluster of long returns?